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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    The Twins simply were not very good that year. They were not going to be even remotely serious contenders with or without him. The way I I see, they can't loose for having made a trade in a year they were not going to contend. The question is did the acquire anyone who will contribute. If they get an average ML starter ... it's a win. If they get a mid rotation SP it's a win. If Duran is a solid #2SP ... It's a huge win. If we get two average ML starters ... it's a huge win. If you look back throughout the past decade, they are 4X more players on playoff rosters that are acquired in similar transactions as compared to trading for impact players. Getting something out of players about to be FAs is a huge boost to building a contender in a mid-market. We could have been a little better and enjoyed Eduardo for another couple months. If it turns out we get someone who makes us significantly better for 6 or more years, I will take that path every time.
  2. Major League Ready
    It would be great if this was viable but there is absolutely no chance the "local government" is going to commit to allowing fans. We are talking about public health and safety in the midst of a pandemic. Baseball is a very long way from an essential service. The only hope we have of a semi-normal off-season would be if the players agreed to a salary structure that accounted for attendance. I don't think that is going to happen given the stance they took last year.
  3. Major League Ready
    I think we might see the Mets sign a couple deals similar to what you have described above. That's what happened when the Dodgers were bought. That strategy failed for them and they radically changed their approach but the Mets may still try to buy a team. The Yankees are badly in need of starting pitching. We could see them spend aggressively and then try to reset their luxury tax next year. I don't see any chance of a mid-market or small market team following this strategy.
  4. Major League Ready
    I agree baseball is a free market and therefore your statement is a contradiction. Owners can't fleece players if a free market exists. You may also want to look back at the actions of both sides last year and re-evaluate which side acted with integrity. Owners paid Milb players in spite of them not playing. They also kept the vast majority of their staff despite a 50% (roughly) revenue loss. How many companies were even remotely as generous. Players on the other hand agreed to renegotiate if fans were not present. Then, they ignored this fact and basically said we want every dime regardless of what happens with revenue.
  5. Major League Ready
    They could not have lost over $3B (100M+ per team) if revenue was only down by $3.1B. There are variable costs that we not realized because of the 60 game season as well as some other cost cutting measures that would assure a difference between revenue decrease and net loss. I have not seen anything that detailed losses but the estimates for lost revenue are closer to $5B. The estimated losses(EBITA) I have seen lately are between 2.7B & 3.1B
  6. Major League Ready
    What if he would have brought in whatever RP they have that had the lowest probability of success but he pitched a scoreless inning. Would you have said that was a poor decision before knowing the results? Pitch hitting Adrianza for Cruz is not a good decision if Adrianza happens to hit a HR. It's a bad decision with a fortunate outcome. If you take a cab home because you are intoxicated, and the cab is involved in an accident, it would not have been a better idea to drive yourself. I would suggest the right decision is the one with the highest probability of success. However, I would allow for overriding the analytics when a guy is in the zone like Snell was in game 6.
  7. Major League Ready
    Anyone care to predict what happens if fans are not present next year or if 25% of capacity is allowed? Are we going to have another 60 game season? No season at all? Is it possible the teams and union are discussing this without the fact they are negotiating leaking out to the public. I doubt it but I can't imagine both sides have not recognized the need of addressing this issue. How do they determine a budget with a revenue swing of up to 40%. I would think spending is going to be extremely limited for most teams unless an agreement is reached that considers attendance.
  8. Major League Ready
    I appreciate the effort here but I really don't know how we can estimate their budget. If they are optimistic and assume they will make two-thirds of normal attendance generated revenue, the result is a $40M decrease in revenue. I am coming up with 93M as opposed to the $80M estimated here. I used arbitration values approximately the same as TD estimates and Maeda is estimated at $9M to arrive at $93M. I don't know where the budget ends up but your general theme that there won't be a lot of dollars available and six spots to fill is accurate regardless of the exact budget.
  9. Major League Ready
    I agree with you that there are other better areas to invest given we have Jeffers and Garver. I do not agree other teams have promoted players with MiLB performance similar to Lewis. He has 33 games at AA with a wRC+ of 88. I have a very hard time believing their are examples of other teams promoting a player with a similar MiLB history but I would be happy to eat crow if you can provide examples.
  10. Major League Ready
    Baez is in his final year and his wRC+ for 2020 was 57. Doubt he would cost the farm but I still don't see the point. His career wRC+ is 101. Polanco is a career 104 wRC+. In their last full year (2019) Baez Wrc+ was 114 and Polanco 119.
  11. Major League Ready
    For a player with one year of control? Story is a FA after next year. The last thing we need to do is give up top SP prospects for a guy with one year of control no matter how good the guy with one year of control happens to be. I would assume the Twins would much prefer Lewis end up as the every day SS and hopefully in the not too distant future. Although it seems highly unlikely he is promoted to the ML level until he proves himself for more than 22 games in the AZ fall league. Polanco is probably a trade asset once Lewis is established.
  12. Major League Ready
    Jeffers was called upon because of injury. That’s an entirely different scenario than opting to use a prospect from the start of the season. In this case, they would actually be making room for Lewis. In addition, Jeffers had also proven to be ready defensively that’s not what we are hearing about Lewis. Jeffers also had an Ops+ of 151 at AA, Lewis 88. Lewis was promoted to AA in spite of regressing at A+ from 2018 to 2019. I don’t see Jeffers situation as remotely parallel to Lewis. It would be aggressive to promote him without a need caused by injury if he If he kills AA for a half-season. Promoting because he had 22 good games in the AFL is reckless.
  13. Major League Ready
    I just don't know what to use for a budget. It seems unlikely teams will assume fans will be back. Will the players agree to a reduction in salary based on attendance levels? Is it possible that negotiation takes place immediately following the WS. If so, I would expect next to nothing happening until an agreement is reached. Here is what I expect .... Twins will non-tender Rosario. Rooker will be in the OF. He is the most established in terms of Milb success. He had 65 games at AAA with a 933 OPS. Kirilloff has 94 games at AA and had a mediocre year in 2019. His OPS was 756. Kirilloff and/or Larnach will not start the season at the MLB level but will be promoted during the 2021 season. Lewis also will not start the season with the MLB club. He only has 33 games at the AA level and his OPS was only 649 at AA. Yes, he was great in the AZ fall league but that's a SS of 22 games. Sano will be with the Twins to start the season. They are not going to sell low on him. The biggest expenditure will be a FA starting pitcher. There will be a couple RPs signed. A utility player will be signed as a FA. However, I would not be shocked if they decided to give Gordon and/or Blankenhorn a shot. I just think there will be some good opportunities to sign this type of players this year.
  14. Major League Ready
    If you are looking to provide proof of which acquisitions are the most impactful, looking at the top 3 in terms of inning pitched is not a great data set. I took a look at the acquisition method for the top 20 SPs by war for the last three years. I separated the acquisition method as follows. Drafted Trade while still a prospect Free Agents Trades for established SPS 2019 4-Trade while still a prospect 7-Drafted (1 international) 6-Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 3-Trades for established SPS 2018 8-Trade while still a prospect 8-Drafted (1 international) 2-Free Agents - One came from Japan 2-Trades for established SPS 2017 2-Trade while still a prospect 11-Drafted 4-Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 3-Trades for established SPS Total 2017-19 14 (23%) - Trade while still a prospect 26 (43%) - Drafted 13 (22%) - Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 08 (13%) - Trades for established SPS 66% were drafted or acquired by trade before they became established. Traded before becoming established is defined as acquired with with no MLB experience or never having a year with over 1 WAR.
  15. Major League Ready
    They made a very lopsided trade to get Glasnow. They traded Chris Archer with 2 years of Control for Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Archer had 2 years of below league average performance. Glasnow has been very good and they have 3 more years of control. Meadows was great last year but hurt this year. They have 4 more years of control with him. They have always been willing to give up good players with 1-2 years of control for players with 4-5 years of control and/or prospects. They have always been great at drafting and developing SPs. They have also done a great job with other teams cast-offs. They got Nick Anderson from us as well as Curtiss (tonight's opener) and Slegers from us, all of whom we DFAd.
  16. Major League Ready
    I am not sure on most of the answers but well done in terms of outlining the questions. I will say that I agree with DC Twin in the primary investment being made in starting pitching. There could be some very good deals out there next year for utility players. There are going to be some non-tenders that can be signed relatively cheap. I think the players and league should be back at the bargaining table as soon as the WS ends. They need to come up with something other than 100% compensation if fans are not present. I could be wrong but it would seem logical that teams are going to be very conservative this off-season if an agreement for salary relief does not take place. Maybe teams will be confident we will be back to normal next year but I doubt it.
  17. Major League Ready
    I am not puzzled by Max's low BA. It's a lot harder to get hits when you constantly hit into 4 infielders on one side of the diamond. Of course, you addressed the cure. A few hard bunts down the 3rd base line would take teams out of the shift or at least take one less guy away from the right side. A lot of players had really bad years with the chaos of Covid. I want to see Max in 2021. It makes sense to keep him here while we audition Rooker / Kirilloff and Larnach. He would still have 3 years of a team friendly deal. If he rebounds to somewhere near 2019 numbers he is a great team asset or trade asset going forward.
  18. Major League Ready
    Hendricks was waived three times and traded twice before he became an impact player so the comparison makes no sense. On the other hand, Tampa's BP has benefited greatly from out cast-offs. I would sure would have liked to have Nick Anderson this year plus 4 more years of team control.
  19. Major League Ready
    There are varying degrees of difficulty. The 1B is still present when a RH bunts to beat the shift. He can field the ball with the pitcher covering. Extreme shifts against a LH hitter like we see with Kepler have no defenders on the left side. The degree of difficult is far lower than a RH hitter. It’s also FAR easier than bunting for a hit against a traditional defense. The direction does not need to be nearly as good and the ball does need to be deadend. As a matter of fact, the harder the better. Learning to bunt for hits against ML pitching and a traditional defense is not so easy. Learning to guide the ball somewhere within 25 ft of 3rd base with a hard bunt not nearly as tough. If considered in terms of a single AB, it’s not that big a deal. However, in the case of LH hitters who face extreme shifts, forcing opponents to abndoned the shift will result in better results across literally thousands of ABs. If I were LH hitter who faces exremes shifts I would not be willing to accept the imp[act of shifts on my career. I would be working very hard in practice and during the off season to learn to bunt hard toward 3B and beat the shift. I would hope that any player with the skills of a ML player could learn this skill within a reasonable amount of time. Sounds like a great spring training activity to me.
  20. Major League Ready
    Apparently, the new call is that stats lie or don't matter, at least if you don't like what they reveal. Going back to 7/1/18 to give the rough equivalent of two seasons given the shortened season this year, Rosario's WAR is 2.2. Kepler's is 7. He was in the bottom 5% this year in terms of chase rate. Rosario ranks 35th in OPS among corner outfielders this year. One spot behind Robbie Grossman. I disagree he has greatly corrected his chasing problem. I would say his approach has gone from horrid to very bad. The stats would suggest whatever improvement he has made has done little to improve his OPS. I would prefer to give the job to Rooker and allocate the money to starting pitching or a utility player.
  21. Major League Ready
    I did not assemble the data. It came from Fangraphs.
  22. Major League Ready
    I used players with 120 ABs to gather a larger sample size. If you prefer using 180 Abs he was 152nd out out of 157.
  23. Major League Ready
    Rosario ranked 257 of 267 players with 120 ABs this year. He went from absurdly undisciplined to the bottom 5% of the league. It's maddening because he could be one of the best offense players. It's not just swinging outside the zone. He developed a little bit of discipline early in the count but then he swings at terrible pitches when he does get ahead. There is just no reason for pitchers to throw him anything decent.
  24. Major League Ready
    Rod Carew would have hit 900 against the shifts they put on Kepler. It drives me crazy that Kepler has not done anything about it and twins management should have insisted he learn how to bunt adequately to nullify this shift. The shift the put on him obviously takes away hits. It would appear Kepler and the team have accepted teams taking away hits for the rest of his career because that's what will happen if Kepler does not learn to bunt. A little slap bunt would be even more effective because it would go into left field. If he used a hitting motion for a slap bunt he could even use it with 2 strikes. Pull hitters should be working on this stuff in MiLB. Allowing others teams to take this advantage is incredibly stupid. Our organization should be working on this with current prospects to gain an advantage over the rest of the league. Our prospects that cant adapt to using the entire field should be required to learn how to bunt or slap bunt adequately enough to beat a shift.
  25. Major League Ready
    Not that I don't agree but the real problem was scoring 1 run per game. I think their biggest need next year is better plate discipline. Not just in terms of swinging outside the zone but laying off tough pitches when they are ahead in the count. It appeared to me opposing pitchers knew our guys would be aggressive when ahead in the count. They threw tough breaking balls or just did not give up much of the plate even when ahead. Our guys fouled off the pitches to even the count or put the ball in play with weak contact. At least that's what it seemed like to me. I don't have the stats to back it up.
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