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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Even the Dodgers with their enormous revenue look for these types of players. Max Muncy was released by the A’s and Justin Turner was released by the Mets. Muncy produced a OPS+ of 161 his 1st year with the Dodgers. Justin Turner’s low OPS+ was 121 over the next 7 years with 3 years above 150. Finding these diamonds in the ruff is an enormous boost to any team. That's why smart teams give these guys a shot.
  2. Major League Ready
    The Whitesox are going to be very good. I would be real happy with winning the central by a tie breaker.
  3. Major League Ready
    Over his last 1,000 ABs, Rosario had a wRC+ of 98. Jake Cave had a wRC+ of 103 during the same time period and 572 ABs. Cave’s defense is better and I would guess Garlick will be about the same, maybe even a little better given how often Rosario throws to the wrong base or airmails the cutoff man. I think a platoon of Cave / Garlick has a good chance of being an upgrade. The even better news is that Kirilloff and/or Larnach should being in those positions and producing well above average for the next 6+ years. I think there is a good chance Cave is traded sometime this year.
  4. Major League Ready
    This has been my take as well. They can take this approach and the worst case is they use Rooker to transition to KIrilloff/Larnach. Best case scenario is we come up with our own Justin Turner / Max Muncy. Garlick's history reminds me quite a bit of Turner. His breakout year was his age 29 season. He went from below average to posting a wRC+ of 123-158 over 7 seasons with 3 years in the 150s. You can't come up with these guys if you never give them a chance. BTW ... I was pulling for Rooker but I saw this one coming. I am guessing Rooker's homework assignment is going to be Taxi squad pitchers throwing him breaking balls.
  5. Major League Ready
    If you really believe you have a better idea on every deal there are only two possibilities. Either they don't have a clue or you don't have a clue.
  6. Major League Ready
    I follow now and agree! I am hoping we finally have pitching prospects that will allow us to get some post season production out of pitchers who are prospects at the moment like some other teams have done the last couple years. A great rental would be nice too.
  7. Major League Ready
    Can you name a team with the Twins revenue or less that has post season success as a result of signing an elite starting pitcher in free agency? Charlie Morton is the only guy I can think of and that was a very modest contract in comparison to a normal FA deal for an impact SP. Might even say it was a bargain. Of course, it helps that Morton had an significant preference to be in Florida. Perhaps more to the point, if we look back at post season success or even getting to the post season, developing pitching has been by far the most determinant factor for mid or small market teams or even for large market teams. The difference is the large market guys can sign 3 elite SPs and still have the Twins budget leftover. The most realistic strategy for teams outside the top dozen in revenue is a deadline trade for a rental.
  8. Major League Ready
    Clevinger, Bauer, and Carrasco were traded while they had enough control to get a return. The Twins have 3 option years after the 5 year guarantee. They could keep him for 5-6 years and still get a return so I really doubt they would trade him after only 2-3 years. If the new slider has the impact we hope, the only way he gets traded is if we have enough young talent that letting him go is not an issue. That would be great situation!
  9. Major League Ready
    I hope at the end of this deal he has collected the max. That would mean he performed well for the team for the next 8 years.
  10. Major League Ready
    When you have half the revenue of the very top teams and there are several teams with $100M+ revenue advantage .... Competing absolutely REQUIRES getting more productivity per dollar spent. It's an absolute mathematical certainty so it just astonishes me that people bitch about bargain shopping.
  11. Major League Ready
    This FACT should be the end of any debate. Anyone who would argue the decision to let Rosario go presumes to have a superior understanding of Rosarios value in comparison to every organization in the league. It's not a bad thing that fanaticism elicits some irrational moments but to harp on endlessly in the face of the highlighted reality is absurd.
  12. Major League Ready
    It's more scientific than just assuming to know the relationship between spring training stats and in-season effectiveness. I found it interesting. Thanks for going through the effort.
  13. Major League Ready
    I have no idea of Ken Harrelson relative intellect. It’s also irrelevant given the profiles of current GMs / CBOs. The fact you reference someone with this background from 35 years ago suggests you don’t understand the difference in skill sets and experience of current executives. I guess if we concede these people are highly skilled it's pretty hard to assume the problem is they are idiots if we don't like a decision they make.
  14. Major League Ready
    It could be as simple as they promised Shoemaker and/or Happ a starting role. However, maybe they are looking for an unconventional ways to get more innings out of the BP this year to keep innings down for their starters who throw less than half their normal innings last year. What if they came up with a plan to use Dobnak every 3rd to 5th day for an average of 3 innings? That’s roughly 45 appearances and 135 innings or about twice as many as the average RP. That plan would seem to take full advantage of this depth. This is only feasible if the others remain healthy. Of course, an injury results in Dobnak going to the rotation which resolves my objection to him not being in the rotation from the start. If an injury moves Dobnak to the rotation, perhaps they bring in Duran or Canterino or maybe even Ober to take this newly defined role.
  15. Major League Ready
    They should be very good in a couple years. They have drafted well and have lots of good prospects on the way. They have 5 players in MLBs top 25 prospects. They have 15 prospects with an overall rank of 50 or above and another 10 rated 45. We have two in the top 26, four in the top 100 and 8 with an overall rating of 50. We better hope out pitching prospect pan out or Chicago / KC and Detroit are going to be the front runners in our division for several years.
  16. Major League Ready
    I would rather see them stack starters because a 6 man rotation likely puts more strain on the BP. You have one less BP arm unless you elect to reduce the bench in favor of the 6th starter. You also probably loose your best long reliever. Does an extra day rest provide benefits that outweigh these things? I don't think so but it's worthy of discussion.
  17. Major League Ready
    I didn't realize they had formally announced the starting rotation and a Google search did not produce an announcement. Is their a link to this announcement or was it mentioned on a broadcast? edit: Never mid I found an article on MLB.com. I would prefer Dobnak but the use of pitchers is going to be unconventional this year given their limited innings last year. He will be in the rotation soon enough if he pitches anything like he did in ST unless all five starters are great and I would be just fine with that scenario. We also don't know what assurances were made to Happ and Shoemaker. Recruiting requires promising things so there is a good chance promises were made we don't know about. There are 30 people in the world that hold the top spots in front offices. That type of job is never held by stupid people despite the consistent insistence of some sports fans.
  18. Major League Ready
    Maeda / Berrios / Dobnak / Pineda / Happ Rogers / Duffy / Colume / Alcala / Robles / Thielbar / Law / Shoemaker Law takes Smeltzer’s spot on the 40 man.
  19. Major League Ready
    Do we really need to talk about how many guys are passed over and end up being good or even great players? Johan Santana was a rule 5 guy. How about Nick Anderson who we released and on and on and on. The real point here is how often are teams willing to give up a year in a players prime for 3 weeks in their rookie season. Bellinger who was sent to AAA just long enough to get an extra year of service. He also had an OPS of 872 the year before he debuted so I fail to see how Bellinger is an example that supports your position. Conforto was brought up in the middle of the season. While he is an example with some relevance in terms of players promoted aggressively. His path does not refute the primary point of emphasis here which is promoting a guy to start the season and losing a year of control. To do that in this specific case would be grossly incompetent. I was not cheering for the team to burn a year of control no matter how well Kirilloff performed. A year in exchange for 3 weeks is horrendous asset management. It's short sighted / fanatical thinking. How much difference could 3 weeks make and let's not forget Rooker earned the job with his Milb performance. Do we want to send the message to our prospects that their efforts and success will ignored in favor of promoting more highly touted prospect even if they have not proven themselves to the same degree as a lower ranked prospect?
  20. Major League Ready
    I do agree the playoff stats should be considered. Having said this ... Can you name other corner OFers that skipped AAA after putting up an OPS of 800 or less? Did we learn from nothing from rushing Buxton? I would want to see concrete examples of players with a similar performance record in the minors that have been well above average players at the MLB level. If they don't exist, why is there a debate? Demonstrate that it has been done, preferably more than once.
  21. Major League Ready
    As you know, wRC+ is a relative measure. It's relative to all other players in the league. The first problem in this case is that most AA players are never going to make it to MLB. Therefore, wRC+ has some flaws as a measure. We are not comparing to a group of eventual MLB players. We also need to account for position. Corner OFers have the 2nd highest OPS. Therefore, we would expect them to have a wRC+ significantly above 100. Having said all this ... I was aware of the points you made and they have merit. I was really just making a point that he was so bad this spring that I would have taken Garlick over him to start the season. Chpettit19 and others have outlined the numerous reasons for not bringing a guy up that is not ready. I am also not willing to go out of my way to burn an extra year of service time. It's really short-sighted to bring up a guy that is probably a liability at this point only to burn a year of control when he will probably be a great player. Can you think of an example where a corner OFer skipped AAA and went to MLB after producing a 759 OPS at AA? Jiminez had a 925 OPS at AA. Aaron Judge had an OPS 100 pts higher in AA and he was sent to AAA for 90 games.
  22. Major League Ready
    Kirilloff is not even 2nd after Rooker for me. Garlick has been the best hitter in ST. Granted it's spring training. He also had 100 pt higher OPS at the MLB level in 2019 compared the Kirilloff numbers at AA. Garlick's AAA OPS was over 1,000. His history suggests he is better prepared to play at the MLB level. We are supposed to bring guys up when they are ready to contribute not because fans are anxious to see them. What happened to let's take the best 26 players north? Kirilloff probably ends up being better than Garlick at some point but he certainly is not at the moment.
  23. Major League Ready
    So, what player(s) would you have not signed to make up for the $10M not spent on Rosario? Given the inevitable reduction in revenue, the Twins spent quite a bit more than could have been reasonably expected. It seems like you anger is a product of not understanding that a $30M (estimate) reduction in revenue will result in less spending. You can divvy up the dollars however you like but the $10M (estimate) they didn’t pay Rosario was invested in free agents. We can debate how they money was spent the money. However, debating they should have spent as much as they did last year would require a failure to understand that the amount of money coming in determines the amount that can go out.
  24. Major League Ready
    A trade would be ideal. Short of that happening, I am not worried about loosing Smeltzer if they believe in "the Law".
  25. Major League Ready
    You are changing the scenario. In Cody's proposed roster, Astudillo is a 2nd back-up. If Simmons goes down, Polanco goes to SS, Arraez to 2B, NO Astudillo. If Polanco or Donaldson goes down, Arraez takes his place, NO Astudillo. Astudillo is there if your backup goes down too. Now, would I still keep Riddle instead of Astudillo? Probably. I don't really see the need for 3 catchers.
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