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JustinCB

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Everything posted by JustinCB

  1. JustinCB
    Thanks! Had not heard that before.
  2. JustinCB
    Déjà vu?
  3. JustinCB
    I was at that game! Think it was college night.
  4. JustinCB
    Not a strike
  5. JustinCB
    Not even really that much of an improvement over Escobar, tbh.
  6. JustinCB
    88 wins is the lowest amount a team has gotten through with as a wild card since they started sending two from each league. That would require the Twins going 27-13 the rest of the way. Anybody think that's happening? Cotts is an improvement over Duensing (if that's even who they plan on replacing) but this team isn't playing nearly.700 baseball for 40 games.
  7. JustinCB
    Your heart must get heavy a lot.
  8. JustinCB
    Wonder if he'd do better in a market like Minnesota, where there's no demand to sign the type of sexy free agents that bombed in Boston, no budget for them in any case, and not even any expectation to win baseball games!
  9. JustinCB
    Are you talking about just taking any given teams' number of wins above replacement level and arbitrarily dividing them among the players? Its still fundamentally an individual statistic and its usefulness is in what it tells you about a given player compared to another with a single number derived from various measures of a player's performance. You can extrapolate team performance based on cumulative player WAR but it doesn't work the other way around.
  10. JustinCB
    For one thing, you're only accounting for batting WAR for each team. If you add Boston's pitching WAR (7) you get 22.6 for the team. If you add the Twins' team pitching WAR (10.7), you get 18.1 for them. Second thing, team WAR isn't intended to match up perfectly with team win-loss record (which shows past performance only), it's meant to fall roughly in the range between team record and pythagorean record (which is a function of runs scored and allowed, and which is a better predictor of future performance.) Pythag W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81] If you plug that in for Boston (.450) you'd expect their team WAR total to fall somewhere in the range of 52 team wins and 53.1 pythag wins. B-Ref sets replacement level at .320 winning percentage (or roughly 38 replacement wins based on 118 games played so far), so if you add Boston's team WAR to that, you get about 60. For Min (.478 pythag = 57 wins compared with their actual 59 wins, and team WAR gives you 56) It's not perfect by any means, but it is useful as a rough tool for comparing the value of different players with a single metric. The Twins are right about where you'd expect them to be as a team based on WAR, and Boston is fairly significantly underperforming theirs, but like any other statistic there are almost always outliers.
  11. JustinCB
    How exactly is mike leake the one you pick out of that group
  12. JustinCB
    agree with that part.
  13. JustinCB
    He should be ran out of town for trading a fringy prospect and a non-prospect for a halfway decent bullpen piece? Ok.
  14. JustinCB
    How is that a "small detail"
  15. JustinCB
    come on
  16. JustinCB
    "Them" not "we." You wanna associate with this mess?
  17. JustinCB
    Spirit of Vodka Dave agrees with me! http://twinsdaily.com/topic/3711-keith-law/?p=61749 http://twinsdaily.com/topic/11778-keith-law-mideseason-top-5-farm-systems/?p=257755
  18. JustinCB
    Twins Daily's own Nick Nelson has been bringing it up since at least 2009 (see comment one and his response http://twinsfanatnicks.blogspot.com/2009/03/position-analysis-left-field.html) I'm not pulling this out of thin air. He's been called out on it before. See first comment on this chat he did a couple years ago. http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/21395/21395
  19. JustinCB
    Law has never seemed like much of a Twins fan. I feel like they get discounted to some extent by the smart baseball types because they aren't sabermetrically inclined, but maybe I'm reading into it too much.
  20. JustinCB
    They'd do best to go find a couple competent relievers. I can barely stand to watch the late innings this year.
  21. JustinCB
    ERA north of 8 so far. Less than 10 innings but not good, at least not yet.
  22. JustinCB
    I think in the past there's been a thread where each of the picks are listed with what they signed for, if at all. Is that still a thing and I just can't find it?
  23. JustinCB
    "Put a fork in him."
  24. JustinCB
    I'm sure Gardy has had a lot of forks in a lot of things lately. Lotta potato salad I bet.
  25. JustinCB
    He did a nice job setting them up to get out of the bottom of the 9th. Thompson should never have been allowed to sniff that situation in the 10th when Perkins was available though. So net loss I guess.
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