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I would be all over Mitch Keller, headlining a trade with whatever SP prospect they want (Festa or Raya). Pittsburgh might do it since they might not think keeping Keller is feasible after 2025. I would be fine trading any SP prospect. The Twins don't have a great history of turning highly rated Prospects into quality major leagues. In the last 5-10 years it's pretty much Berrios and crickets. Balazovich, Romero, Gonzales, Jay, Stewart. Trading any of them at a certain point of their careers would have seemed bonkers. Even the prospects they have traded haven't turned into huge losses yet. Graterol is a great reliever, but I think Maeda and Camargo turned out well. Petty looks awful good, but he is still super young and probably wouldn't be helping the Twins for another 3-5 years at best.

If healthy, I like the idea of a Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis infield of the future. That is with a healthy Kiriloff of course. To start the year I'd imagine its going to be Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis. First base always seems like something you could fill easier than some other positions if you had to trade someone away. They've got some options available if they had to fill it (Miranda bounce back, Brooks Lee position change, Yunior Severino). Also, if Buxton's knee's are too much for CF, could he give 1B a try? Might be less impact on his knees.

Its not perfect, but it gets you in the ballpark. The thing with Soto is that he has 1 year left and he's a free agent. If a team wants him, they want him to sign him longer term, so he'd be worth more than BTV gives him credit for. Now if Juan Soto came out and said he was retiring at the end of the 2024 season, a Jax for Soto trade might make sense. Jax has a lot of value. Super cheap for the next 4 years. If he were a free agent this year, he'd be getting 8-10M per year at least. If Emmanuel Rodriguez truly is a top 10 prospect, then yeah, the Pirates trade doesn't make sense. Rodriguez (or Lee or Jenkins) would probably be enough to get both Bednar and Keller on their own. I'm assuming he's still in the 50-100 range and I think thats the kind of deal it would take to get those 2. I personally don't see Rodriguez as having having more value than Lee or Jenkins, though. Another route you could go is Matt Wallner as the top guy in a trade. Something like Wallner, Festa and couple others might get that trade done. All of this all depends on the teams evaluation too. 29 teams might think Prospect X is a fringe top 100 guy and 1 team think he's a top 10 prospect and sure thing. I'm curious if you have some trade ideas, for Keller or for the pair. I love the speculation.

Oh, I don't know that they need Bender, but I'd rather see them get a top end guy, or some minor league free agents, than spend millions on some fringe guy. Keller is a guy I want them to pursue. I think he has the potential to take off like Pablo Lopez. The trade was pure speculation using that Baseball Trade Values just to ballpark it. I don't want to trade Julien, but I could totally see them going that route like they did with Arraez. They have depth that could replace him, and there are some people that worry about his defense (he'll improve so I'm not worried about that). They could start the year with Polanco at 2B and also have Lee, Martin and Severino as possible replacements. This would all be dependent on Pittsburgh deciding that their window is not the next 2 years. If they aren't idiots, they'd realize that trading Bednar for prospects makes sense. RPs are always risky to drop off a cliff. If they are idiots, they won't realize they should extend Keller. Keller only might go something like this. Severino, Festa, Canterino.

#1, we don't know if the money will be there, due to the TV contract. Even so, I think I'd pass. I'd take Gray because he's a known quantity, and although he's getting older, he seems to have a great work ethic and will be able to adjust. I'd take Giolito because I think he's a lotto ticket. Might even see if he'd take 3/30. I'd take Ohtani if the money was there. I'd take Yamamoto because I want the Twins to make a massive Japan pitching splash at some point. I'm a no on Montgomery because he is a low strikeout guy. For $25M a year, I think I would want that. I'd stay away from Nola because his K/9 is dropping on a yearly basis. 12.1 to 11.1 to 10.3 to 9.4. I don't want to commit to 5 years of that. Blake Snell would probably be okay, but I don't love the 5 year commitment. I don't see any huge red flags, so I wouldn't whine if they did sign him. Kershaw isn't signing with the Twins, but I'd be okay with 1 year for him at that cost. Rodriguez isn't a huge K guy. His Hard Hit % is creeping up. His GB rate is dropping. I have a feeling he could drop off a cliff soon. If they don't make a trade, 1 year of Wacha would be fine.

My top two choices would be Gray and Giolito. Take Giolito if you can't get Gray. I wouldn't spend the money on any of the rest. Instead I'd trade from prospect depth for Mitch Keller. To me, Keller seems like Ace potential akin to Pablo Lopez. Might be able to sign him to an extension like they did Lopez.

Yeah, I'd either go with a more expensive sure thing or a bunch of cheaper options. With Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart and Funderburk, you have a good start. You can fill one spot with a "break in case of emergency" guy like Winder, Sands, Headrick. Between Alcala, Henriquez, Canterino, Balazovic, Moran you have several who might show up and fill a role. I have a feeling that before too long next year, Varland will move full time to the pen and be a STUD. Based on what I just wrote, I'd probably just go with a few minor league free agent type arms. If a current stud fell into your lap, I'd go for that too. Like if you decided to make a deal from depth in a trade for David Bednar, I'd say go for it. How about Bednar and Mitch Keller for Julien, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Marco Raya?

I think it depends. The twins wouldn't really be gambling $21m for a 2nd round pick. Let's say the offer him a 1 year deal for $15m and he turns it down, a QO is only risking $6M.

Twins had some C's in AAA and AA have really nice offensive years and I'm guessing at least 2 of them are on the 40 man roster. It was amazing that the Twins only used 2 catchers all season. That likely doesn't happen next year (one or the other will likely get dinged up), so that'll be the chance to see those younger guys get a shot. If they pan out, then maybe Jeffers is a useful trade chip. But right now, I'd have to be blown away for a Jeffers trade offer.

Love your research, this is fun. I'd definitely trade Larnach. I'd listen to offers on Jeffers, but would only trade him for someone like Pablo Lopez. Someone you are certain would become a #1 type pitcher. I'd maybe trade him for a Top 50 type pitching talent. Castro doesn't have the value that you got from the website, I don't think. He's not going be a centerpiece in bringing in good talent now. He's also not going bring in a sure thing prospect talent haul either. Eduardo Escobar had a higher track record of production that Castro and he didn't bring in any sure fire prospects. Duran worked out well, be he was no sure thing. I don't think Castro brings in as much as Escobar, so I think Castro has more value to the team (defense, speed, flexibility, cost) than he would in a trade. However, if the front office things Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and maybe even Yunior Severino are all ready to contribute at the major league level, maybe there is not room for Castro. Thats a pretty big if right now. If any of those guys get playing time early and prove it, then maybe Castro is a mid-season trade.

Agree. Too long for his age. Seems like he may be wired differently. There was a story earlier this year that he hadn't ruled out retirement. I think talked about how his kids were getting old. Maybe we'll get lucky and he likes Minnesota and just wants another year or 2.

I think someone is going to offer him 5/110.

Let's think about this from the Twins' staff point of view. They targeted Lopez, a really good, but not elite pitcher, whom they saw as someone with a tweak or two could be elite. I'm certainly not qualified to determine who might be an average or good pitcher who could make a tweak and bump up. How about Sears, Waldichuk or Medina from the A's. None of them set the world on fire and they are super young, so the A's might not want to sell low, but if the Twins staff saw something that could be the trigger to make a leap, you do it. Blackburn for the A's is more likely. Again, only if the Twins saw something that could be a game changes. I always hear rumors that Seattle would trade from their SP depth for lineup help. It looks like they could use an upgrade at 2B, 3B and RF. What would it take to get Miller, Woo, Hancock or Berroa? Severino and E. Rodriguez for Woo? Or aim high. Julien, E. Rodriguez and Festa for Logan Gilbert. Do the Rockies or Nats have any SPs they are failing to develop. What are the pirates plans? Do they think they can contend in 24 or 25? Mitch Keller is a FA in 2026. If not, how about Julien and Festa for Mitch Keller?

You're not wrong. I think they probably go that route and sign a short term older guy. However, if a guy like Lopez is available, they have the depth to make it happen. Lee and Jenkins are the only untouchables for a guy like that in my opinion.

Its a really interesting idea. I will say, I'd treat Maeda as more than a one season wonder. He was a quality starter this year as well, especially for the cost. I wonder if the Twins would consider signing Gray long term. Probably not at the cost he'd probably command, but if he likes Minnesota, would he take a 3/65M deal? Something shorter than he'd maybe get on the open market? My guess is they end up signing one older guy to a 1 or 2 year deal. Someone like Kyle Hendricks or Carlos Carrasco. The trade is an interesting idea, though. Over the next few years, they've got some high end prospects that will be Rule V eligible and there might not be enough roster room for all of them. I think they may have 4 C's Rule V eligible that had pretty good offensive years. When you look at the list of Twins players, you're pretty set at at a lot of positions. Jeffers, Correa, Kiriloff, Julien, Lewis, Wallner are going to be regulars going forward. Next year you also have Kepler and Polanco, but maybe gone after that. You've got Castro for a couple more years for sure, Farmer next year. In the minors, you've got guys ready for their big league shot. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, DaShawn Kiersey, Yunior Severino. I think they don't resign Taylor and use Lee, Martin or Kiersey in CF. Severino would likely wind up at 1B, but played mostly 2B and 3B this year, so its possible he could play 2B. Further down the line you've got prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Tanner Schobel, Jose Salas, Kalai'i Rosario who could have nice trade value and you could trade without hurting depth that much. Or last year's draftees like Luke Kueschall and Brandon Winokour. With that kind of depth in the minors and few major holes to fill at the major league level, it probably makes sense to see what you could get. In 2025, you could easily see this as your roster and feel pretty good. C: Jeffers, Vasquez (minor league depth with whoever is left of the 4 Rule V eligible guys). 1B: Severino 2B: Julien 3B: Lewis SS: Correa OF: Wallner, Lee, Kiriloff DH: Buxton Utility: Castro, Martin Backup OF: Kiersey Toss in a few free agent signings and you've even got depth down on the farm. Trading a couple prospects (or even a major leaguer if you got someone like Lopez) isn't going to destroy that depth.

Thats a decent point. I know he's at a record number of innings for him, but he's had a ton of rest, too.

I disagree. Sure its a longer series, but you have 2 off days ahead of it and off days after game 2 and game 4. All of your relievers should be available to pitch in both Game 1 and Game 2 (unless they go multiple innings), plus your game 4 starter could come in in Game 1 for a couple of innings and still be fine to start Game 4. I think I'd leave off Funderburk. Or Pagan, who has a terrible track record against Houston. He owns Jose Abreu, but the rest of that lineup hits him like they are hitting batting practice.

I appreciate your analysis and opinions. My comments are not meant to imply I think you are wrong. I just like to debate. 1. I thought you mean full rest in Game 1, not game 4. I see where you are coming from. 3. It seems like you think starting Joe Ryan in Game 1 risks turning it into a bullpen game. Wouldn't having Joe Ryan start in game 4 also have that same risk? I don't really agree with your point that its not circular logic. I think the idea that starting Maeda in Game 1 eliminates the possibility of using him in Games 2/3 is really only useful if you don't trust the coaching staff to use their resources properly. A counter argument to Maeda in Game 1 is that if you start Joe Ryan, you have the option of using Maeda when he is needed in any of the first 3 games. If he's not needed in Game 1, you can use him in Game 2. If he's not needed in Game 2, you can use him in Game 3. Or, you can flat out save him for Game 4 start (but you might not get there). I think there has to at least be a little confidence that the coaching staff uses their resources properly, though, whichever decision. 4. I see your point here. Maeda as a veteran on the road and Joe Ryan at the friendly home part. That makes sense. Joe Ryan has been far better at home than on the road. Maeda has been far better on the road than at home. This right here kind of makes it a no brainer. 5. I'd have to know Maeda personally to know if that would affect him, but the coaches certaily do. I think you're right on Maeda going game 1. I was a little surprised that they went to Varland in both Game 1 and Game 2 (rather than Maeda in Game 2), so I wonder if they were thinking with a 1-0 series lead, lets save Maeda for Game 1 of the ALDS. I like the schedule as well. Having Monday as an off day, plus 2 days rest before Game 1 means all of your relief pitchers could theoretically pitch in both Game 1 and Game 2 and still be available for Game 3.

Aren't a lot of of your Pos true whether Maeda starts or not? 1. Starting Maeda or Ryan would guarantee them and your entire bullpen are available at full rest. 2. Plenty of hypotheticals that could blow up the series with Maeda starting. What if Maeda blows up early and they have to pull him quick, that could quickly sour the rest of the series. Same thing could happen with Ryan, though. 3. I'm not sure why this is true? If you start Maeda game 1, then Ryan is your likely game 4 starter. If you start Ryan game 1 and they use Maeda in relief, you still have options of a bullpen game in Game 4, with Paddack going through the lineup once, Varland going through the lineup once and maybe even Joe Ryan (short rest, not expecting a full start). Plus, I think you could put Ober on the roster (instead of Funderburk). 4. I think you can get that either way if you really want it. Either Maeda or Ryan. If you start Ryan and he pitches well, you just save Maeda for game 4. You might even get an inning of relief in game 1 or game 2 and still get a fresh Maeda in Game 4. 5. Unless you don't pitch Maeda at all, you could still get that unique advantage. 6. If you're really down on Ryan, this is a valid point. I could go either way, but I think I'd go with Ryan in Game 1. If he looks like he's not sharp, pull him quickly. The reason I'd go Ryan/Maeda rather than Maeda/Ryan is that I don't think Ryan has ever come on in relief, while Maeda has. The fact is, the Twins are going to need to cleanup their infield defense and get the bats going more to beat Houston. I don't think Houston will screw up as much as Toronto did.

A few comments. Joe Ryan was shelled in his May start against Houston, but that wasn't long after his first start against Houston where he had 10 K's. ERA looked bad due to a Grand Slam, but overall he was really good. Houston seeing him a 2nd time in short order probably helped them pick things up. Now a third time in a season might be bad, but the layoff might be long enough to negate that. Maeda has a slightly better track record against Houston, but not by much. Ober hasn't faced Houston this year, but has not done well against them. I think I'd go with Joe Ryan in game 1, but have him on a short leash and bring in Maeda if he blows up early. Louie Varland has been fantastic against Houston. I think Game 4 is the real question. There I think I would piggyback Maeda/Ober. The roster is the question. Looking things up, Tucker has mashed righties and lefties about the same this year and in his career. Alvaraz has even splits in his career, but has been super great against righties this year. You also have most of the bullpen with moderate success against the two of them. Combined the two of them are 0-5 against Jax, 1-6 against Pagan, 0-5 against Varland. Tucker is 0-3 against Paddack. Neither player has ever seen Brock Stewart. With all of that and Thielbar, I think you could leave Funderburk off the roster.

I thought Jeffers had closed the gap defensively, but he is well behind in most if not all defensive metrics, so that is a really good point. Matchups with the pitchers might come into play. For whatever reason, Lopez has been far better with Jeffers behind the plate than with Vasquez. Hitters have a .604 OPS with Jeffers and a .736 OPS with Vasquez. Gray is pretty similar. Jeffers has never faced Gausman, but is 0-5 with 4 K's against Berrios. Vasquez is hitting .192 with 12 K's in 25 ABs against Gausman. He's 2/8 with 1 K against Berrios. Based on that, I bet they go Jeffers today and Vasquez tomorrow.

I meant Kikuchi was a lefty. And I was thinking Gaussman would pitch this weekend

Julien was not great against lefties in 2021. I couldn't find his splits in 2022. Buxton at least has a history against LHP. I'm in favor of giving Julien more ABs against LHP in the regular season, but in a playoff game, thats kinda nuts. Plus, he gives you a potent pinch hitter against a righty reliever, but you'd also have Kiriloff and Wallner for that. Kind of moot if Lewis has to DH, though. You certainly aren't playing Julien over Solano, Polanco or Farmer against LHP.

Playoff injury rules are interesting. If Lewis is DH only, the decision on that last spot comes down to Buxton/Stevenson. I'm going to discount Stevenson's value as a defensive replacement. You can run Kepler, Taylor and Castro out there as a good defensive outfield. Has Buxton slowed down as a baserunner with the injury? Is Stevenson's pinch running capabilities far better than Buxton's? The other thought is that you really only need a pinch runner in a game started by a LHP, or at least moreso. If a RHP starts, you'd have Taylor on the bench to be your first pinch runner. You're also probably only going to pinch run for the Catcher, Kiriloff and Walner. The only reason to keep Buxton is if you think/hope his hitting might come alive. Its certainly possible, but not likely. One problem if you keep Buxton, if he just tweaks his knee and that slows him down, the Commish is probably not going to allow you to replace him on the roster. I think my heart says Buxton for some hitting redemption, but if you are stuck with Lewis at DH and Buxton just can't play OF, the right move I suppose is Stevenson.

Agree, if Lewis has to DH, you leave off Buxton. But if Lewis is good for 3B, I think Buxton is your 14th hitter even if he can't play the field.