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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. And we all can be happy as they finally picked a catcher. Another player with a good eye at the plate and good power. Looks like a smaller school though. Still I like the hitters they have been selecting. They all seem to have a good eye to start with so that should help them early on. Just not sure how well those small school players translate though.
  2. I didn't really think Hamilton was much of a prospect until 2021 when he started out hot at the plate. He got my attention and then promptly slumped the rest of the way. Thought he might be done for good and didn't give him much of a chance other than depth to start the year but the bat was back and he has been more consistent this year. I honestly think he could be a solid backup catcher. He's no All Star but I think he is solid and a good third catcher candidate.
  3. Honestly I am not expecting much from day three. If the Twins can find some more guys like last year: Fedko, Festa, Nowlin, Parades, Perez and Ohl then that would be pretty darn good. If I had my wish it would be to find some younger guys at the high school level or JC and develop them in the system. They get a chance to mold them that way and they have the equipment to help them develop faster IMO. Still finding a few guys that might make difference in those rounds would be good enough for me. We all know that unfortunately about 90% of these picks are not going to make it. Some will get very, very close and more than half will wipe out fairly early. It is a hard long road to become the best of the best and then get privilege of playing Major league Baseball. I hope they all make it but will be happy to get two or three good player out of this draft.
  4. Yeah they will trade from surplus and they have middle infield utility surplus. You are right they probably can't keep them all as the 40 man will dictate who they can or cannot keep and it would be a good problem to have if most of those guys work out as they should have value in trades. I don't think that in a couple of years most of those guys you mentioned will be gone though. Maybe Polanco and that is a maybe as Switch hitters are hard to find and playing 2nd not a huge toll physically. Most good players play well at least into their 30's and then some. So that is 6 years for Miranda, and Steer and 7 for Jullien, Lewis, Martin and Strand. A lot of those years are prime years as well so I don't think a "couple years" stands up well there. Also the MLB clock hasn't started on Jullien, Martin, Steer or Strand so they might be around even longer than that. The Twins might be more like Cleveland and Tampa and trade some guys a year or two before free agency but that still puts them at 4 to 5 to 6 years out yet. They also might want to extend one or more of those players an extra year or two like they did with Kepler and Polanco as well hard to say. And your not even counting Cavaco who was a Twins first round pick or Holland who was supposed to be first round pick that fell to number 5 or Soularie who was second pick in 2020. They were all best player available as well when they were picked. Miller is the youngest of them all and he was 1st round pick just last year as well. That is a lot of surplus to work through in "a couple of years". I don't have anything personal against Schobel and he might be a real steal in the end but there were other options there that could have been best available seen through a different lens. Options that wouldn't have stacked up the already pretty full utility player pipeline the Twins currently have of which they added yet three more guys after Schobel and Lee.
  5. I agree the first day was a dream draft for the Twins and to get there, sacrifices have to be made. They rangled in arguably the drafts best college hitter and possibly one of its top pitchers and also secured a player many scouts felt was underrated in Schobel. Day one was an amazing day and I can't say I have been more excited about a Twins draft in the top 2 rounds probably ever (Maybe Kirilloffs draft year with the three second round picks). Still for as little as I know about a lot of the second day picks I was pretty excited about Ross and Ortega who both have interesting hit tools and Ortega might have a little bit of that CES magic in him so that is exciting. Ross seems more like an Arraez type contact hitter with maybe not quite as good an eye at the plate and he comes from a weaker conference so hard to say how he will do once he turns pro. Still I really liked both picks and if they are money savers to boot all the better. I have to admit Once you get past the 3rd round pitchers seem essentially a dime a dozen to me. There just is no way to know what they will be able to do until given a chance to develop in pro ball. Sure the stronger the traits the better the odds but ranking them at this point seems impractical. Yes I would have been one of the fans looking for that toolsy outfielder in the top ten but the Twins do have some young options coming up there in Rosario, Rodriguez, Urbina, Aguire, and maybe Fedko so they didn't "need" to grab one this year. I didn't love all the utility player picks essentially 5 of the ten picks are guys who might fall off the shortstop position but as everyone always says you can't draft too many shortstops. It just seemed a bit odd to ignore the catcher and outfield positions all together in the top 10. Bottom line I still love this draft. We discuss this on the board all the time and if you are a prospect watcher you have probably experienced this as well. The guys at the top have the best chance to make an impact at the MLB level. The Twins took three good swings there with their top three picks. If they maybe missed out on some later talent it probably doesn't matter as much as finding money for Prielipp and Lee, investing in the higher end talent. Doesn't mean it is all going to work out but IMO it was a good strategy. I am still stoked about this draft.
  6. OK my bad. This is the Chirstian Encarnation-Strand pick from last year with less of a track record. I like the risk reward here though at 6. The Twins just can't resist a good utility infielder especially this late, lol. I guess the pitching can wait until all the hitters are gone.
  7. It has been hitter, pitcher, hitter, pitcher, hitter so I assume pick 6 is a pitcher?
  8. I think Texas can and will find more money for Porter. What a great deal for them though. They need a fast moving pitcher and Rocker teamed with Lieter should give them a nice 1-2 punch. Porter should help eventually as well. They are Texas go big or go home. Have to say I like the upside for them and like going for it.
  9. No real scouting report that I can find but his college stats make him interesting. Must be a good contact hitter as he has a high batting average and OPS. Don't know the level of competition faced or anything about the arm, speed etc but just from a hitting perspective looks good for a number 5 pick. Maybe more bonus saving as well? Is he this years Encarnation-Strand?
  10. Not an overly exciting profile for Morris but I rarely like the Twins pitcher picks in this range and they end up doing just fine. Looks like they need to money for Prielipp to me and that is fine if that is what it took to get Lee and Prielipp.
  11. Yeah I don't disagree that they can deal from their depth there but this guy reminds me a little too much of Soularie. The slight frame generally doesn't seem to play as well at the MLB level. It sounds like he has good contact skills so hopefully things turn out well. I like the player it is just I felt there might have been more "value" in another position. If he hits anything like Strand not necessarily that level of power but just hits well that first full year I am sure I will be more onboard. Still a lot of draft to go so plenty of time to fill holes I guess I just didn't have the time they did to fall in love with Schobel. I am sure that will change once I get a chance to watch him play.
  12. Technically most scouts say he is not going to stick at short "long term" but most acknowledge he has a chance to start there and I presume what they mean by that is if the team is willing to accept his level of speed to get to balls they could keep him at short. If you want my definitive answer, lol, it would be the majority of the things I have read say he moves off short at some point. When that point is I do not know but it looks like the Twins will keep him at short for now. So there it is he definitively is a shortstop at least to start.
  13. I was thinking the same thing last night. He couldn't go to a better team for taking care of his arm and his future all the way up to the MLB level. I also think that might be why he agreed to slip as the Twins likely will have to go over slot there. Hard to say though as there is so much mixed analysis. If teams really feel he is a reliever in the end then he went right about where some elite relievers go so maybe no extra bonus needed. Still he couldn't have landed on a better team so I have to believe he signs regardless.
  14. I agree. While they probably don't have an All Star caliber catcher in the system I feel like they have solid depth right now. They called up Hamilton who was hitting pretty well at AAA and is a solid defensive catcher. Isola was on fire with the bat at AA until injured and while his defense might not be great I believe it was OK. I don't know much about Chris Williams as a defensive catcher but he is hitting really well at AA too. They just Drafted two good catchers in Winkel and Cardenous and both are doing well at A and high A. So yeah I wouldn't say catcher is a huge strength but I doubt they see it as a huge weakness either.
  15. Well right now at the MLB level they have Arraez, Polanco, Gordon, and MIranda, At AAA they have Lewis, Steer and Helman. At AA they have Jullien and Martin with Strand a possible third baseman, At high A Severino, Holland, Rucker, Javier. At A ball they have Miller and Perez and with their first pick tonight they have Lee. Lets see that is about 16 players in line for three spots. That's a lot of guys so I think they have that spot covered even if they don't pick Schobel there. Even two to three years from now there doesn't look like there will be much room there. I get your point best payer available and Schobel had a great season and probably worthy to go where he went but it doesn't do much for me when most of this teams talent in the system is already at that exact spot. I was wrong last year about the Strand pick which I kind of thought was a waste and have been singing the draft teams praises as a steal there in hindsight. Maybe I will end up doing the same with this pick once he gets to minor league ball and starts performing. It is just that they are not always right either. I didn't like the Sabato pick and that one hasn't worked out yet so not every move they make is perfect either. Time will tell but my gut reaction is I think they could have done better strengthening another area.
  16. I agree with Johnson's assessment that things fell the Twin's way for once. Both Lee and Prielipp were talked about as 1-1 picks at times so to get two of those guys in one draft is absolutely amazing. I know there are a lot of durability questions about Prielipp and I have to believe that is why he fell. At Fangraphs he is essentially listed as a reliever right now so no sure thing to be a starter. Still no one really knows how well the arm will hold up after surgery and with one elite pitch and another not far behind he has relief ace floor if he stays healthy. Arms are tough things you just never know. Still I thought the Twins got great value at 48 with Prielipp. It was the pick I wanted them to make. His ceiling was higher than anyone else they had left to choose from. If he does make it as a top of the rotation starter this pick will be seen as an absolute steal in hindsight. I wasn't thrilled with doubling down on mini Lee (Tanner Schobel) Obviously the Twins got to see him a lot and felt better about him than anyone else in that spot. Normally I would say awesome but with the glut of utility guys in the system and after just picking Lee it just didn't make much sense to me. He looks like a good player and one who will likely exceed his scouting reports. If he truly was as good as Cross in the box you could say the Twins got three first rounders with their first three picks. Not too shabby if things work out with all three. These last two drafts I have really been on board with what they have doing. Going high upside, getting lefty pitchers, finding legit talent deep in the draft. Hope they have a good day 2 especially on the pitching side as the arms are stalling all way to AA. Need to find difference making arms on day 2.
  17. I second your opinion here. He seems like a solid player and they are betting the power will be there as he likely fits their model well. However how many more second, third possibly shortstop guys do we have in the system right now? The system is full of these types of players. We just picked one at number 8. If he had blazing speed or could for sure stick at short I could maybe see my way past this pick but he does not. So yeah it is a solid pick and all but it seems like they could have and or maybe should have gone with maybe more risk and tried a hard throwing solid two pitch possible elite relief pitcher in that spot or even another starter with potential. At least some position the system is weak in. I get they will probably go under slot in that spot and felt this was the best option but on the surface he didn't look like the best available to me and he doesn't even meet a system need so sorry but this one is a head scratcher for me. Granted we are getting to the point in the draft where the minimal scouting reports out there on guys start to deviate heavily from consensus boards and there are much more varied opinions about a players potential so who knows. The Twins and other MLB teams have a lot more info on all these guys so you have to defer to them. Just sayin IMO they could have done more to help balance the system as they have found this pick at number 11 before and his name is Michael Helman. Not impressed by that pick unless they used to save more money even then take a flyer on a pitcher IMO.
  18. That is awesome! At one point earlier in the year I was hoping the Twins would take him at number 8. To get him in the second round is just fantastic. I am really liking their draft so far. A good value pick as he was ranked in the first round on most boards granted in the lower 20's but still a nice pick at 48. Some work to do coming back from TJ but could be a fast mover next year if lives up to his reputation.
  19. Me too at minimum he would be a fast moving reliever this system needs. He would be a good value at this point in the draft as well.
  20. Dang the Dodgers know their stuff was hoping Rushing might fall to the Twins. Unless the Twins like Hunter it looks like pitcher for pick number 2 IMO.
  21. It is looking like the run on pitching has begun. Hopefully the Twins grab a good arm for pick number 2.
  22. Correa and Seager aren't that fast either and yet they play there and Correa even won a platinum glove. More than Half of Shortstop is positioning and being able to make good throws. Nick Gordon is fast and has a good arm but the Twins don't play him at short much and even when they do he is pretty error prone and has been his whole minor league career. Polanco's issue was throwing as well he just didn't have the arm to make the throws and made lot's of errors as well. With a slower speed is the team willing to gamble the player won't get to a few balls he should but can make all the other plays and throws? That is the question you need ask about Lee. Also with the shift and focus on lifting balls you can hide a lack of speed but you can't hide a guy who can't make the throws. That is why some scouting services like fangraph's think Lee can stick there if the Twins want to try him there. Most see him moving off of short but I believe the same was said about Seager as well. Odds are he moves off but just have to wait and see how he does there first IMO.
  23. Lee is a dream pick IMO. Most Scouts say he can stay at short as he has really good actions there it is just a matter of how you feel about his lack of speed there. Still he is versatile enough to play second third or left field if needed. The best thing about him obviously is the bat and his advanced approach at the plate. I think he K'd 28 time to 42 walks. Almost double the walks to K's. He is someone who "can" hit breaking pitches and the cherry on top is he is a switch hitter. He is as safe a pick as you can make that high with a pretty high ceiling to boot. I generally don't love the Twins 1st round picks but I can't believe they were able to get Lee at 8. I think they made an excellent choice all the way around. Now they just need to nail their next two picks because they don't have a third rounder this year. ....Hey Jeremy feel free to say I told you so when I said no one in the top 7 would fall to the Twins. You said other teams would have other plans and of course you were right but did you see Lee falling to eight?
  24. Not sure where you are getting your info but even MLB.com has his arm ranked as a 55 which is above average. He has been playing shortstop and some outlets like Fangraph's think he could still stick at short as he has good actions he is just a bit slow footed with only average to slightly below average speed. Most scouts have him playing third base with potential to be elite there so if the arm was a problem then not sure why they would be saying that. He has pretty much been mocked in the top 5 all year and he is a switch hitter which is a bonus as well. Hard not to be high on this pick IMO.
  25. I liked Parada as well. It was a tough call there for me but I think in the end Lee is a bit more athletic and with Parada's potential arm issues behind the plate he could have ended up at 1st base or DH. Lee should be able to play all utility spots and likely left field. He could be a plus defensive 3rd baseman. He's just more athletic so I really like the pick. They could have gone Collier as well but Lee is pretty much everything Collier is supposed to be when he grows up so why not just take Lee and forgo the development risk. Again I think the Twins made the right choice with Lee.
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