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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah the Twins would be asking for a top 100 prospect and an extra guy or two thrown in to make that deal. That's a steep price to pay hoping that Gibson continues to perform the rest of this year and next. If he had a better track record it would help. Also I think the Twins would be reluctant to give him up without a generous return because having Gibson, Romero and Berrios in the rotation next year sounds better than just Berrios and Romero. I know Pineda might come back and be good but hard to know for sure. Feels safer with Gibson in the mix next year. Who knows though. Strange things happen around the deadline.
  2. Dman
    Are you sure you understand trade value? If the Twins traded Gibson and he has a good season again next year then that team can either trade him at the deadline or offer the QO and gain a draft pick. So they have an opportunity to get value back. That would be factored into the trade so the Twins would expect to get much more than a potential supplemental 1st rounder or deadline rental deal because as you said they have the potential to get that next year or keep Gibson if they are in contention. So no I doubt they will get nearly the the same return next year. In the deal with the Giants we only got Meija a borderline top 100 pitcher because Nunez had an extra year of control and if I remember correctly the Giants were able to get value back as they traded him to another team the next year. Typically rentals get you a top 10 to 20 player in a teams system and or maybe a lotto ticket. That is a pretty big difference in return IMO. That extra year of control carry's a lot of value for the team receiving the player. value the Twins would need to receive to move him. Your point about the risk of moving him with no one to truly to replace his production next year is a good one. The Twins would have to decide if they think this team as constructed can really compete next year or whether they need to build toward toward a different window of contention. If they don't trade him and stink with Gibson next year then they wasted an opportunity to get better as well. So there is risk both ways.
  3. Dman
    I think it depends on how you view this team but I have gone back and forth on Dozier and Esco as well. If they could get them to sign two year deals with maybe a third option year I would be fine just rolling with them. Since that is unlikely I think it makes sense to trade one or both of them if the return is reasonable. I say trade them because there is no guarantee they sign with the Twins after this year and even if the Twins magically caught the Indians and made the playoffs this team isn't built to compete with NY, Boston, or Houston. Trading Gibson is a tough one. He is an older pitcher with fairly recent success. Is it sustainable? Seems to be but selling high wouldn't be a terrible idea either. It would take getting a top 100 prospect in return (preferably a pitcher) and a couple of other decent pieces to get that done and I don't know if the Twins can find a partner to get that anyway. The return would have to be good because if he pitches well next year then the worst the Twins could do is lose him on a QO and likely get draft pick compensation. But trading essentially one year of control for another six on the prospects gained is like trading in your old car for a new one. Just have to be careful not to get a lemon. I don't see Santana factoring in this year unless he comes back hot and they get him through waivers. His health is still too uncertain for teams to want to deal for him. He is also quite old so his value is very limited. I don't see teams being willing to give much up for him. Twins are likely best off seeing how he does this year and triggering his option if they believe he is an asset to the roster next year.
  4. Dman
    I am happy for the guy but he looked very hitable this spring. His stuff looked slow too. I was not kind to the FO for grabbing him and was happy they landed Lynn, boy was I wrong. Looks like if can get by with that stuff he should be good to pitch several more years.
  5. Dman
    I don't know if a winning season is enough for me anymore. While watching a crappy team really takes the joy out of the year in the age of super teams so does losing in the first round of the playoffs. Does this Twins team look like it could compete with Houston, New York or Boston for seven games? I don't think so. Personally if they get some prospect Lotto tickets for rentals I am all in. This team needs more depth and higher quality players. Yeah, yeah I know the guys we have to trade likely won't get us any top 100 prospects but losing Lynn or Odo isn't going to really hurt this team either. If the FO can find takers and get some quality prospects in return that is the direction I think can change this teams fortunes in the future. Standing pat does nothing for me. We have a second wave of young pitching coming up with Graterol, Enlow, Balazovic, Maybe a few others if we get lucky. Try and find more quality arms in that range giving us greater odds of a few home grown number 2 or 3's. We have a second wave of hitters coming up as well. Let's try to build a super team instead of maintaining mediocrity.
  6. Dman
    I would think the A’s would be interested in Lynn as they shouldn’t have to give up too much to get a solid 5th starter. They might like Odo as well since he wouldn’t be a rental. Who knows with Odo the A’s might be able to build back value and get a nice return for him next year. If the A’s are in it I bet they will come calling.
  7. Dman
    While the front office (at least during the draft) repeated they like high character guys no one seems to be able to identify who all the low character guys are. How many low character guys do we need to get rid of on the Twins team? Since about 99% of the players get labeled high character guys I guess the term loses all meaning for me. High character does not appear to something that is in short supply in baseball. Due to that fact the term is for all intents and purposes meaningless as far as I can tell. Yeah I get the one bad apple and all but rarely do you see it have much influence at least not that I can tell. Yep everyone has different personalities some easier to deal with than others but when it comes to playing the game they all want to win and if a player doesn't work at his craft there is always someone better waiting to take their place. Typically the bad character angle comes up when teams are losing. Yeah guys are not going to be happy losing and there is a lot of pressure to perform. That can boil over some but I don't think it has to do with bad character just wanting to win and be a productive player. Maybe their are red flag guys out there it just seems we don't hear about very many. I'd bet every player the Twins have has high character can you name any that don't?
  8. Dman
    Yeah I wonder what the Brewers are willing to give up for Manny. Manny would be a real difference maker for them this year but I would hope they wouldn't give up too much for a rental. Nothing like the deadline to ratchet up the price. Hopefully once the Manny saga is over we can see if teams come calling for Esco or Dozier.
  9. Dman
    First of all to my eye I thought Cave was safe but I guess if the Twins didn't challenge that then not too much to complain about. I guess I don't understand the blocking the plate rule. To me it looked like the catcher had his foot on the plate without the ball but ultimately caught the ball before Cave completely made it to plate. So the catcher can be in the baseline receiving the ball as long as the ball gets there before the runner? Also by having his foot on the plate it looks like he might have gotten hurt so I am not sure how the rule is supposed to help with injuries then, but just like the Twins I probably don't understand the rule. If the Rays were throwing at Esco they did a poor job of it. I can understand everyone being on edge after the Balk call but bottom line they got in Esco's head and he struck out. The Ray's said all the right things so it doesn't appear to be one of baseballs unwritten rules and I have no idea what to think other than maybe Esco did over react. The Rays did not help themselves with the shift they put on with Dozier at third. If they weren't going to hold him on then really they got what they deserved. Maybe the Rays pitcher should have thrown a ball at the manager for that idiotic piece of strategy.
  10. Dman
    Yeah that return seems a little light for Dozier IMO. If they wanted one of our relievers I would be OK with that move. Like you said he is 25 so if he isn't ready real soon he really isn't a prospect anymore. He has two strong pitches and has played with others but looks like two plus pitches is all we could reasonably expect to get out of him. We have Curtis, and Buesenitz with similar profiles and they haven't made it yet so not sure how badly we need another one. If that was the only deal we could get for Dozier I might take it, but I would like to think he could fetch an actual starting pitching prospect. Maybe one further away but with good potential.
  11. Dman
    That might work. He has the curveball that this FO likes. His WHIP is pretty high though so he is hittable. I don't know how much different he is from the pen guys we already have in AAA. You could bet on his upside after surgery but I would would want another lottery ticket if they went with Houser. Maybe some international project far away with potential or rookie league player. A little something to mitigate the risk. If he had a third pitch that would help.
  12. Dman
    That is some massive regression for Watson. Is he hurt or working on something? Glad they finally moved Jovani up a level. There are several other players that should move up as well. I hope they get a call soon.
  13. Dman
    I am a big fan of littell. Not sure why he can't get it together in MLB. Here's hoping he can find the pitches he needs to be successful.
  14. Dman
    I totally agree. I love how they go for it. I know it didn't work out for them but they did everything they could to maximize their ability to win. I think they can afford to give up Ortiz and Phillips and maybe a third lotto ticket to get that deal done. That would be a pretty good return for a rental. I know Baltimore wants Burns but that seems like a stretch for a rental. I guess if the price is too high then it makes sense that they are looking into a poor man's Machado in Escobar. If they get out bid then they should go hard for Esco as it looks like he is the next best thing and wouldn't be a costly as Machado.
  15. Dman
    There is enough of a market to trade him I think it is just a matter of what the return will be at this point. If I was Milwaukee I think I would overpay for Machado. They don't get this far very often they should do everything they can to win it all.
  16. Dman
    If you look at the list, the medium ranked guys have a lot of warts and the guys we might like are ranked too high for what Milwaukee would get in return. Maybe if they got prospects back from us we could grab someone higher but it is a tough match if you ask me. I like Fangraphs write-ups better than MLB. More detail. Ultimately same result for me though I don't see a trade working unless no one else is interested in our guys.
  17. Dman
    Sure anything is better than nothing. I just think the Twins might be able to do better or match up better with another team. FWIW Corey Ray's write up on MLB is not real flattering. Looks like Palka with speed. Maybe Marcus Duplan at #11 would be something to build a Dozier trade around. Although Mechanics issue's and a high WHIP are concerns at least his floor is a bull pen arm. Maybe that is the best the Twins can do I don't know. I just don't love what they have in their system.
  18. Dman
    Maybe Lutz for Esco but the prospects in the sweet spot 10 to 20 range just don't interest me. I think it is going to be tough to do a deal with the Brewers as they are heavy on Outfielders and low on young pitching. Lutz is likely too high for them to part with for a rental and that is lowest piece I would be interested in. Not that we need more young outfielders. Personally I don't see it happening. If you ask me it is more of a negotiating ploy to see if they can get Baltimore to come down from their asking price.
  19. Dman
    Janigson Villalobos and Tyler Webb look like they are ready to move up a level. There is no one in front of Lewis at High A and they could move Severino to A ball and see how he does there. Lets keep these guys challenged I have no idea why Jeffers is in E-town except for getting some vacation time, maybe?
  20. Dman
    With prospects you can always see the Glass half full or empty. Most of those guys on this list are young for the level, holding their own and have a tool or tools that appear to be above average. They are far from developed and anything can happen. If something clicks they go from good to great.
  21. Dman
    I was really bummed with Slegers effort last night. He had me as a believer that he had enough stuff to play at this level. Watching him struggle you could only think AAAA is his level. I really wanted to believe he was going to defy the odds but if you can't miss bats you aren't going to make it. I doubt we will see him back at this level the rest of this year.
  22. Dman
    Yeah I have never seen analysts at such a loss for words when the Twins picked Jeffers in the second round. To be honest I expected him to sign for half the slot amount. So I agree, I don't see Jeffers as your typical 2nd round pick. After complaining about the pick I do like his bat. I know Elizabethton stats mean nothing as Max Murphy exploded there and flamed out in AA but with an OBP of nearly 500 I think Jeffers will do OK as he moves up. High A ball will tell the tale. If he hits there I believe he will make it. Still between Jeffers and Larnach the Wonder Twins saved 1M in bonus pool money. I guess I don't know why they had to pay Sands and Kiersey so much over slot unless maybe they had deals in place for them? They did manage to nab a decent amount of high school guys with the savings I am just not sure they have as high of upside as you would like to see for those kinds of picks.
  23. Dman
    If I had to guess Cabrera makes the most sense for them as he can play all three positions and is a switch hitter. He currently has a better batting average and OPS. I would guess it would come down to cost which doesn't bode well for the Twins unless other teams are interested in both players. I sense a meager return for Dozier but this FO has done pretty well trading so we'll see.
  24. Dman
    I really like Arraez's bat. I haven't seen a player swing it that well in the minors since maybe Ben Revere. I hope he finds a defensive home because his bat is crazy good. I too thought Pearson would start in the short season league especially since he struggled last year. Glad I was wrong as it looks like he will be ready for A+ ball next year for sure. Jeffers OBP is almost 500. That is crazy good. He really needs to be better challenged with the bat hope they move him up soon. Not a fan of Diaz and never was a fan of that pick. He played well last year though and I think he has enough bat to stay on the list. Sometime guys need to repeat a level. I believe Polanco did and he made it. Diaz is young so I am not giving up on him yet. Glad to hear he is staying in shape. There is still time for the bat to turn around the rest of this year. Severino is a pleasant surprise. He is quite young so I wondered if the bat would play. He appears to have a good approach for being so young. Looks like a good pickup for the FO. I am pretty excited about all of these guys. They all have a pretty strong chance to make it. Hopefully they can meet the many challenges ahead and continue to be successful.
  25. Dman
    He doesn't seem like the kind of player the Sox go for but good for him. He worked his way into a lineup and got noticed. Definitely a 4th outfielder but I really liked what he brought to the Twins this year. We have better options waiting in the wings, but I was cheering for the guy.
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