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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Mike, I like your thoughts on Kepler at 1st base. I hadn't considered that before but it makes sense. Especially as a way to get more outfielders (i.e. Wade, Cave) playing time. I think\hope Kepler is ready to break out and be a bit more consistent. Hoping he ends the year well at the plate. If he gets it together that flexibility would be nice to have.
  2. I like your idea about getting Wiel up as well. It is just that he is not on the 40 man and if they have to take him off to save someone else from the rule V draft I think we could lose him. I do think Wiel has the eye to make it but it would also be nice to see him at AAA first because Wade and Gordon both struggled more there than AA. If the 40 man weren't so restrictive of moves like this I think Wiel would be a cool way to go. I just don't see them being bold enough to make a move like that.
  3. I don't know that seems a bit nit picky to me. Hey, you are entitled to your opinion but it definitely runs contrary to most others observations. IMO Kiriloff has an elite hit tool. He doesn't walk much, because when pitchers throw him a strike he hits it. His K rate is 17% to Rookers 30%. Rooker has plus power but it looks like Kiriloff might as well. Rooker has 20 home runs to Kiriloffs 16. Rooker is walking about 10% of the time compared to 8% for Kiriloff not a huge difference there. Especially when that seemed to be a concern of yours, Defensively I haven't had the privilege to personally watch either one but Fangraphs has Kiriloffs arm rated 60 his running and fielding are rated higher than Rooker as well. On MLB both players are rated average except in fielding where Rooker is rate below average. You can say Kiriloff is worse than Rooker all you like but I don't see how the stats nor industry prospect evaluators back that up.
  4. Hope they keep Rooker moving. Would be nice if he got AAA at bats this year yet. Maybe he can be ready for the Twins next year.
  5. Rooker could be 24 at AA if he starts there next year. So not that much different in age in my mind, but yeah I get your point Wiel will be 26 next year so his prime years are coming. Hard to be much of a prospect when you should be in the majors. Still his numbers are good this year.
  6. I agree with your statement about Wiel. He hasn't hit double digit home runs yet this year and Rooker is at 20 and Raley 17. But he is right there with both of them when it comes to doubles. I hadn't looked at BABIP so you are right he will be due for some regression. But even with normalized BABIP his eye at the plate right now is better than the other two. One thing we know about the higher levels and that is that batters don't typically strike out less so he has an advantage there. The next level will probably tell the tale for all three of those guys as they will face a lot more junk\breaking balls in AAA. Hopefully Weil works just a bit more on muscling balls over the fence and then he should get his shot.
  7. Wiel has been consistent all season long. His OPS is right there with Rooker and Raley how come he gets no top 30 love? Age? Late Bloomer? FanGraphs has Jaylin Davis at number 16 on their list and his OPS is much lower than Wiel's. Wiel has a much better eye at the plate than Rooker and Raley as well as his K rate is 20% and theirs is around 30%. I know this may be his first standout year but he has been consistently good throughout the year so the numbers do not appear to be flukey. What will it take for this guy to get some love?
  8. Sure I get that and I agree with that part. What you are forgetting is that Dozier was not their only option, they could have still worked something out with another team. Maybe they would have to put more in prospects and get more years of control but I doubt Dozier was their ONLY option. Even if he was their only option they could role with what they have. I think Muncy was playing second for them and he can hit. I am sure they have better flexibility with Dozier and he makes them a better team but again I don't think this was a do or die situation for the Dodgers. If they could get a deal they like then sure add, if not walk away. I just don't see how the Twins could have that much leverage. Just a theory but I think the Twins did push for greater value for Dozier but team after team walked away and grabbed different options. I have to believe Milwaukee wanted Dozier badly. His stats compare to Moustakas but they went with Moustakas instead even though they didn't even really need a third baseman, why? I have to believe the Twins wanted more than they wanted to give. There weren't many dance partners left in the end so they got what they got IMO. FWIW I totally agree the Dodgers played us beautifully. They got a fantastic deal and if the Twins had made that trade to an AL team I would be pissed. NL I guess I don't care that much. I hope the lottery tickets work out but I doubt they will. One more thing if you had told me at the beginning of the year that Dozier would bring back less in trade than Esco I would have laughed at you. You are right that Dozier should have returned more than he did. The return should have been close to if not more than they got for Esco. It just didn't work out that way so very disappointing.
  9. Yeah, I agree with you. I am not sure I see a future spot for him. Rooker is better and there really is no place for him in the outfield unless his hit tool becomes really, really good. I guess you hope he picks up future value and you include him in a trade for pitching? Not sure where he fits but a bit redundant right now. I think technically I like Wiel better than Raley. Weil has a really good eye at the plate and is just missing home run power but I like his chances better because his K rate is so much better. I am not even sure how they fit those three guys at AA. Maybe they move someone to AAA. It is a good question. He doesn't fit real well IMO.
  10. That is nice in theory but no deal hurts us too. Now I have a club I can't really use and nothing in return. I still lose. Now I don't even have a chance to get a better club I can use the next 6 years. I'd rather have a chance then no chance or nothing. Maybe if they held out the Dodgers would have caved or maybe like the other clubs they just move on and grab something else. They didn't need Dozier THAT bad. They already walked away once why not do it again.
  11. Yeah that is a pretty horrible grade for him. 35 ouch!! His performance doesn't match their scouting unfortunately. I guess AAA will tell the tale. Will see lot's more junk\breaking balls there. I typically trust fangraphs more than other sites but they aren't always right either.
  12. Yep even if the prospects don't turn out then the result is the same as keeping Dozier for two months. I guess I don't understand why so many people are down on Raley. His numbers aren't all that different from Rookers. Rooker has a ton more doubles but that is about the only difference. They both have 800 OPS's. Raley is ranked 19 on MLB's site for our system so he is a top 30 prospect. Defensively it looks like he can handle both Corners and even play center field in a pinch so he is an athletic and versatile player. Maybe the Twins wanted Rooker insurance and got Raley who knows. I am just happy they got something.
  13. But the way Dozier played down the stretch the Twins lost all leverage. The Brewers, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Indians, Rockies, Mariners, all could have had him and they either didn't offer anything for him or went with players they apparently thought were better. The Dodgers got a deal no doubt about it and they have a good plan for how to maximize Doziers strengths but what were we gonna do with another two months of Dozier? They obviously didn't want to do the QO or they would have kept him. They took what they could get. Makes sense to me.
  14. I was a big Watson supporter when the Twins got him at the deadline last year. I knew he likely wouldn't be a front end starter but I thought back-end for sure. I was one of the few that thought he had a chance and it looks like I was wrong. Not sure if he is hurt or what but he has taken huge steps backward this year. Here's to hoping he figure it out but things look grim for him right now. The new guys have been impressive so far. Really enjoying watching the infusion of new talent in the minor leagues.
  15. Sure the manager can't be everywhere and control every situation but if the conflict is well known you just turn a blind eye? I guess I don't understand that kind of response. That seems weak to me. That is like a teacher letting someone bully the classroom and not doing anything about it. The teacher\manager has authority. Use it.
  16. I tend to agree. At work managers\upper management\HR set the tone for work behavior. If there are conflicts HR gets involved and try's to change things. If there are issue in the clubhouse and everyone knows about it then wouldn't steps be taken to change it? I have no idea what is going on and I take Seth at his word that there are\were problems but this whole thing doesn't add up to me. I don't really know how people are defining mess. Is it just one person who is a problem and that is the mess? Are players at each others throats? Is it just an unspoken mess? I'll probably never know, But if there still is a mess the manager\management should be trying to resolve it. One of the managers biggest jobs is to keep messes out of the clubhouse.
  17. The Escobar trade I am giving an A-. They might have a number 3 starter in Duran, a leadoff hitter in Maciel and call me a sucker for underdogs but I love De La Trinadad's bat. If they resign Esco in the offseason I'll give them an A+. Pressly trade I would also give them an A-. Cellestino is a stud and if he grows into some power a possibly elite center fielder. Alcala might end up a reliever but should be elite like Pressly was but the Twins will have 5 to 6 years of control again instead of one year if they kept Pressly. For the Duke trade I am sticking with C grade. I don't know enough about DeJong to say what chance he has as a good reliever. If I believed in him I would rate this higher. Again I love the underdog pick in Costello but getting two good lotto ticket makes this a C grade for me. I am going to go B+ for the Lynn trade because I am not an Austin believer. Fangraphs has him not being able to hit sliders so I have feeling he is AAAA but we will see. Love the young pitcher but don't know a ton about him and getting rid of Lynn is addition by subtraction so maybe this should be A-. Gotta go with D for Dozier as we essentially just got lottery tickets and not great ones at that IMO. Maybe since we got two I could go C- but the Dozier trade was brutal. What I like most about the deadline deals is that we received two more young pitchers .So with Rijo, Enlow, Balazovic, Duran, Graterol we have several quality young pitchers 20 or under coming up together. The minors might have some of the best pitchers we have seen in quite some time so should be fun to watch these guys climb the ladder.
  18. I guess I don't understand what clubhouse mess is? So there are players that like conflict and go about creating it? The players don't care? What constitutes a clubhouse mess?
  19. I agree. You have 25 guys all with different backgrounds and personalities, not everyone is going to get along perfectly on any team. But when it is time to play the game they all rally around each other and have each others back so I feel like those differences get put aside when they play. I don't know how things would have gotten so bad so fast. Just a couple of years ago they were having dance parties and having fun. Now they are at each others throats? I guess I don't buy it. Conflict sure. Detrimental conflict I highly doubt it.
  20. Like I said his statements do seem a bit over the top and what is he going to say? I hate this place and am happy to get out of here? I guess I do give his version some credence as he could have just skipped talking about the team. Why mention those things if they aren't true? Why not just talk about how happy you are to be wanted by Seattle etc. and skip the clubhouse kum by ya?
  21. And Duke had this to say about the clubhouse on the MLB website: "The Mariners will be Duke's 10th team in 14 years in the Majors. "I had a very positive experience here," Duke told reporters in Minneapolis. "I enjoyed the area, the city, the fans. The teammates were all great. It's a very good vibe in this clubhouse, regardless of what the record says. The guys have such a great attitude every day. They get along so well. I will miss that. But from what I've been told, it's a similar atmosphere there in Seattle. So hopefully I can step in and not mess that up." So which is it? someone with an axe to grind or someone with a "Pollyanna" story? Choose carefully.
  22. Don't you think the Yankees picked up Lynn because of his success against the Red Sox same for Happ. They want to make sure they have favorable match-ups when they play their arch enemies. He also is an emergency arm for them and given how poorly Gray has pitched I don't think Lynn can do much worse. Also they didn't give the Twins much in return anyway. I actually thought there might have been a market for Lynn for clubs that had injured arms (i.e. Brewers) or needed more depth (i.e. Yanks, A's, National league teams) Mainly because he wouldn't cost much in prospects, But i guess most teams agree with Sullivan. Lynn is just bad. Hopefully the Twins catch a break there with prospects they received.
  23. First let me say I liked the trade for Littell. At the time it looked like it strengthened the upper half of the system for a player (Ynoa) that looked pretty far away. At the time Enns numbers in the minors looked like he could at least be a decent reliever if not a 5th starter. To me the trade seemed like a good move at the time. With Enns pretty much imploding and Littell a bit shaky at the higher levels it isn't looking quite as good as I hoped it would. I haven't seen a lot of kind reviews from analysts on Littell. Fangraphs admits he has been successful but really questions whether he can translate his stuff to MLB. While they are not always right their summary does appear spot on to me. They do admit he has been successful but give him a 5th starter role at best. He is still fairly young so lots of things can happen that would allow his stuff to play up but his upside appears limited and he was the headliner in that trade. Ynoa has more potential upside but he could just as easily end up a reliever as well. I think Atlanta wins that trade based on potential but we'll have to wait and see what the actual results are since both players have potential pitfalls. Trading is tough because you never know what can happen to players as they develop, but I do think the Twins learned a lesson. This time they looked for more potential high upside by grabbing younger players when they had leverage. Some of the players they traded for this year they just weren't going to get much upside based on the value of players we were trading. I don't think the FO has killed it on any trades so far. Maybe the Esco and Pressly trades will change that but there is a long way to go for those players before we know what we really ended up getting. A lot of the trades listed seem fairly neutral to me.
  24. I hated the Jeffers pick in the draft so I have egg on my face now. I am amazed at what he is doing with the bat. With his eye at the plate, ability to square up the ball, and starting to hit for power he should be a fast mover. Very impressed with what he has done so far. Real test is High A for most batters as off-speed pitches get better so will have to wait and see but I think he will be a difference maker. Always loved the Kiriloff pick and was surprised he fell to us in the draft. Just amazing with the bat. He should be in AA as High is just too easy for him. So fun to see so many guys performing well. The future looks bright.
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