Dman

I can admit that Pressly had good stuff and a good K ratio and that he arguably was the best reliever the Twins had in 2018 not that that was a high bar but what I can't admit is that anyone really saw him as an elite reliever at that time. He was maybe trending there which is why he had value but at the time of trade he was a good reliever not a great one. If I would have known we would need him this badly this year I would have never wanted to trade him but at the time it seemed like a deal that could make us stronger in the future and a position that could be replaced in the off season. It didn't work out that way and we lost present value big time in that deal as no one the FO brought in replaced his production. In Hindsight I can agree on Colossal mistake but at the time of the trade not so much. I guess we just agree to disagree on this one. It has been fun discussing it. Thanks!

But which pitcher is he?. The guy with an 9 ERA or .59? That's my point. He had good stuff but the results often were not there. The year before he managed 61 K's in 61 innings. Good but not elite and his ERA was over 4 hardly top notch. Even his great year in 2018 his ERA was 3.4 for the Twins. Trevor May is doing that well this year do you consider him an elite reliever?. Yeah the guy goes to Houston and has a .7 ERA and excellent K rate to boot but he wasn't that consistent in Minnesota thus the perceived risk and the reason Houston did not give up a top 100 prospect.

Don't forget the Twins got Vallimont along wth Romo for Diaz. I agree Miami got a good deal with Diaz but we have a lot of good 1st baseman options. Vallimont had a no hitter going a week or so ago and some see him as a potential mid rotation starter. He compares to Balazovic in a lot of ways as they both have good K rates and really tough stuff to hit. I think the Twins did OK there. Pitchers are more risky bets but that is a trade that could work out well for both teams. The Pressly trade looks light right now given how much he improved. At the time given his WHIP and ERA Houston was taking some risk there. Even this year his Homer rate is a bit high but he is still an elite reliever. The package looked fair at the time, hindsight makes it look more like a steal for Houston.

While I like how definitive your answer is and I can now better see where you are coming from I think that answer is short sighted. Trades are generally about present value versus future value. A team in contention needs present value more than future value and vice versa. The risk is with the team getting the future value as it is possible non of those players work out thus it usually requires more potential value than what is given back. The formula for winning teams has been proven with the Houston and Cubs model where you stack up on future value and once a core is in place then you can trade for more present value as needed. So your theory of judging a trade by what is known seems pretty much debunked in today's game and if a FO is really on top of things a good mix of future and present value can keep a team competitive for a long time. I agree with you that the Pressly trade hurts because we lost present value when we really needed it but it can't be "clear" mistake because the players the team got in return will add value in the future. That cannot just be discounted unless of course both players have no impact at MLB level. Trades are risky that is their nature but both sides count until the players no longer play.

I wanted the Twins to try out more young guys than they did the end of 2018 as well. They had Forsythe playing as well as other older guys and i just didn't understand why they wouldn't give the fringe 40 man guys more opportunity? I know adding guys to the 40 man has consequences as you can lose them if they don't perform well and you need to take them off. There are service time and option considerations as well so I get that it is not always as easy as we (the fans) think it is. I know they have to try and field a somewhat competitive team as well. But 2018 was a good time to take a look at guys especially after all the trades they made. I feel like they could have used those remaining games more wisely than they did.

I was wondering the same thing. I thought in the prospect handbook they had him with a low 90's fastball so must have good secondaries and good control? I mean his K9 and WHIP have been outstanding since he has been with Twins. His ERA has been good too. He seems to be a guy that just gets the job done all the way around. Does anyone know if the stuff he has will play in MLB? Sure seems like with the WHIP and K9 his stuff should translate I just hope he can stay healthy as I don't think he has made it a full season yet.

I know you never wavered in not wanting to trade Pressly and given the way things have worked out I believe you have already won that argument. There is no question we could have used him this year and that he would have made the pen stronger. But I still contend the FO could have brought in similar talent over the winter. I looked and Spy and Van are correct that a lot of the better names didn't work out that well this year but for all we knew back then Pressly could have been one of those relievers that regressed as well. It is hard to know how things will play out in the future all you have are the stats, data points and recent performance to guide you in making those decisions. The FO took a risk that the young guys they had would develop into solid relievers at the MLB level. That did not happen as Meija, Romero and De Jong failed miserably. Vasquez and Moya did not step up. Hildenberger significantly regressed. The guy they brought in "Parker" didn't get the job done and the band-aid players (except Harper) they tried weren't long term solutions either. A lot had to go wrong and did go wrong to get to the problem pen we have today. Seems hard to predict all those failures with so few success's. Granted they dipped into their starters to get some help. Littel has been pretty darn good out of the pen and Smeltzer and Thorpe have done well in starting and long relief roles. So things have been stabilized to a degree but that's a lot of arms to go through and still not have what I would consider a strong pen. I don't think just having Pressly would have fixed all those problems but he likely would have helped. I have to disagree with you that the Pressly trade was a "clear" mistake especially given the way things stood at that time. Trading him gave us a chance to create long term assets and an ability to replace his production in the off-season. There was a clear chance we could have had our cake and eat it too. To me that is not a clear mistake but a risk worth taking. Unfortunately it didn't work out that well for us this time but I liked the gamble at the time.

This is pretty much how I feel about the trade in the present moment with hindsight. At the time though I really felt they did the right thing by trading him. Given everything that has happened it would have helped quite a bit to have Pressly in the pen even without Houston beefing him up. It will take too long for the assets we got to really help us anytime soon we could still win the trade and lose the war.

Maybe I am mis-remembering but I thought there was a minority that didn't really want to trade anyone and give up on the season and then another group on top of that that didn't really want to trade Pressly. Maybe there were more reluctant traders than I thought?

He was definitely trending up. Fangraphs really liked his spin rate and his K rate was a good sign he could miss bats. He wasn't bad but as his other numbers indicated there was risk there and that is why he wasn't able to secure a top 100 player in return. You are correct many, many posters felt it was a bad idea to trade him I believe I was in the minority on the trade front. I could see both sides at the time but to be honest I didn't see that this team would truly be playoff worthy this year so I felt the trade was a good move. They would get 6 years of control of Alcala who has the potential to be a dominant reliever and Celestino who was a bit of a lottery ticket but had nice all around tools so possibly a starting center fielder for one year of Pressly. At the time I thought it was worth it. Knowing what I know now not so much as even the Minnesota version of Pressly would have really helped this year.

It depends on which Pressly I am getting. Am I getting the Twins version of Pressly or the Astros? That is the question that was being asked. Hindsight is great what if you change the scenario. What if Pressly goes to the Astros and regresses. Would it have been a good idea to keep him then? What if he pitches to his Trevor May numbers before his 2018 season would it have made sense to keep him? Would there be no one better on the market in FA because that was what the FO had to decide when they made that trade. Even if he did sustain the 2018 he had with Twins we couldn't find anyone out there that could compete with those numbers? That seems laughable to me. Trevor May already has essentially replaced those numbers and we think of him as 6th or 7th inning guy. Granted May doesn't match his K numbers but Pressly was getting hit hard when he was with the Twins and his WHIP and ERA show that. He literally was not the same pitcher while with the Twins. Yeah if you knew for certain Pressly was going to be an All-Star caliber reliever they never would have made that trade and yeah there wasn't anyone of that caliber on the market this year but that is hindsight talking not a certainty when the trade happened.

Yeah Pressly always threw hard and had decent stuff but the results never quite matched up with the Twins. I mean his numbers while with the Twins are not that different than Trevor Mays are now. Granted in 2018 he was arguably having his best year as a reliever for the Twins but was he going to keep that up or regress? We always complain the Twins never sell high. He only had one more year of team control left they had time to come up with a replacement for this year if they felt it was necessary, but they didn't. They obviously felt they had enough internal options to fill the bullpen this year but that didn't work very well. Houston really helped him up his game so would he be that pitcher for us if we had kept him? Hard to say but I don't think so.

I am on record as liking the Pressly trade as he wasn't going to help us in 2018 and the FO had all off season to find someone with stuff that was at least close to what was lost. They found a player in Marwin Gonzalaz to come close to replacing Escobar's production why couldn't they do that for the pen? If they would have then the Pressly trade wouldn't have looked so bad but by essentially not replacing that production then yes I agree that trade does look bad. It didn't have to look bad though.

Given their track record I don't really trust this FO with pen management. It seems the pen is the one area they typically care the least about especially when it comes to protecting guys. At any rate they did have to make some tough decisions or risk losing guys for nothing. I guess they Figured with Romero and Meija likely pen arms and Moya and Magill who had held their own the year before likely to improve. They liked DeJong and Vasquez better than Anderson as they were younger. They also probably didn't see Hildenberger falling off a cliff either and they had Thorpe, Gonsalves and Littel waiting in the wings to help as well so I can see how they thought Anderson was likely expendable. I will give them a little bit of credit though as they actually worked out a trade with the Marlins so they knew Anderson had value they just thought the guys they were keeping likely had more value but it turns out things went pretty sideways as a lot of the guys they kept actually regressed significantly. That's teh way it goes sometimes. You make logical decisions or calculated risks and they backfire.

I am glad they moved Sands to AA. His K rate and WHIP were really good in High A so no reason to stay there. He had a tough first inning but he belongs in AA and should be a part of the next wave of young pitching heading toward the big club. Was very surprised the Rochester team was no hit. They have been a good hitting team all year. To keep that entire lineup is an accomplishment. Good to see Kiriloff and Larnach keeping things going. Maybe it won't be a completely lost year for Kiriloff as his number are rounding into his more normal numbers. Seems like his multi hit games are back.

I like Duran and hius K9 numbers but his WHIP worries me. I know he just moved up to another level and it later in the season where the arn can wear down but his WHIP throughout his career has been a bit to high IMO. Hoping he can refine those pitches a bit more and look more like a frontline starter. I don't completely understand how Dobnak does it but he keeps performing well no what level the Twins out him at. Can someone tell me if he has great spin rate or something because for an average pitcher he seems better than average. Really nice to see Celistino heat up. He has a chance to be special if the hit tool works out. Congrats to Chalmers for making pitcher of the weeek. If he can learn to control the ball a bit better his stuff will play.

Is Arraez in left a subtle dig at Rosie about plate discipline or just giving him a day off or both?

That was a fantastic at bat for Miguel. I will take that walk over a strike out any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Fantastic eye there. Really happy to see him making good decisions up there.

Rare is the rookie that Exceeds expectations but Arraez is crazy good. How does he keep doing what he is doing?

After we started the year with an 11 game lead I really thought we would be hard to catch. Having been caught it seems easy to see who the better team is. Clevelands pitching has been outstanding. They turned over almost their entire pitching staff and they are still pitching better than we are. While I like our linup better Cleveland has a pretty good offense themselves right now. It is frustrating to be 24 games over 500 and about to be fighting for a wild card spot. I mean what is it going to take to beat Cleveland even next year? The Twins are a flawed team. They are a really good offensive team but starting pitching and relief pitching, although improved, just isn't good enough IMO. On the positive side it has been a joy watching this team this year. They have played extremely well and competed well in the majority of their games this year. They are still my favorite team but based on what I have seen this year I just don't think they are going to win the division and will now have to fight for a wild card spot. I know, I know this is baseball and anything can happen but the realist in me just doesn't see it happening. The way this season started I really thought this was our magical year. The year everything works out and maybe we win the whole thing. Being a Minnesota fan I knew in the back of my mind that the other shoe might drop at any moment and yet I kept refusing to believe that would happen this year. It took a long time but the shoe has finally showed up and I can't say I am happy to see it.

I was curious about the Gallen trade. He looked good against us but when teams don't have great scouting reports sometimes pitchers look better than they are. It is so early in his career that this could be the best he ever pitches or he could be a solid rotation piece for years to come. Obviously Miami think they are selling high and Arizona thinks it has solved a piece of their rotation. Who gets the better end of that deal we will have to wait and see.

Thank you for this write up!!! I wanted to be excited about Vallimont but really don't know much about his stuff. It was nice to get a first hand account of what his stuff looks like.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I actually went and saw a game that Wander played in and came away very unimpressed. Granted he is only 20 but he was swinging at a lot of air and his defense was horrible the night I saw him. If you don't believe my eye witness account check out his stats this year on MILB.com He has a 40% K rate in A ball and his average is .162 and his OPS is a whopping .567. Gordon was never that bad at that level. Maybe Javier is hurt or not fully recovered from injury but his stats are horrible and he doesn't look good in person either. With the lack of power Gordon looks destined for a utility role but right now today I would take him over Javier any day of the week. Hopefully Wander gets it together soon and becomes what we all hoped he would become but this has been an ugly year for him the way he playing right now I wouldn't even have him in my top 30.

OK I'll bite. At least in 2019 Gordon wasn't ranked that much higher than Arraez. Often after the top 10 you can rank the next 10 to 15 in almost any order based on how bullish you are on their skill set. While offense (hit tool) remains the most important tool defense is pretty important too as is positional flexibility. While Arraez has the superior bat and eye at the plate he suffers with the remaining tools that are measured. The main reason I can see why Gordon would be ahead of Arraez would be that he grades out better for Speed, arm, and fielding. Both players lack power in their game but Arraez has only hit 6 total HR's in his minors career whereas Gordon has hit 25 so he seems to have more power potential than Arraez though likely not much. So in my opinion while Arraez has the better bat Gordon isn't too far off as he was hitting around 300 at AAA before being injured and an 800 OPS so it's not like he is a horrible offensive player. Gordon also has a bit more power potential to help offset some of that average and on base percentage that Arraez has. Gordon has the arm, speed and fielding to play all 3 positions in the infield without being a defensive liability whereas I don't believe Arraez has that same ability. I would say Arraez can play second base well but would be a defensive liability at Short and third as he lacks speed, and the arm to play those well. So it comes down to what you value in a player as to where you rank them. If you only value offense then I would agree that Arraez appears to be the superior player but if you add up all the tools I think it is harder put Arraez ahead of Gordon. From a prospect perspective does that mean Gordon will be better than Arraez in MLB possibly not. Tools and potential don't always translate the way we think they should but for prospect rating I don't have an issue with Gordon being ranked higher than Arraez because I can see a case for it.

So will they keep him on the 40 man this time or will this circus continue? Seems like the Angels could use pitching even if it isn't that great. Personally I think the guy is just a tweak away from being a decent pen arm anyway. Tough part is you will have to live with some tough innings before he gets better.