mikelink45
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Everything posted by mikelink45
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As a person who thinks the Opener stinks, I want to thank the Twins for demonstrating why I do not like it. The Opener has the same issue that the Starter would - facing the best bats first. It is not like our Opener options are lights out, nor that BP pitchers are used to the starter routine. For my enjoyment I think we should start with Belisle and call it our fireworks opener - might draw a crowd. I agree with the notes on Grossman too. He has truly been the most steady bat for us the past week. That says a lot about Grossman, but it also says a lot about the rest of the lineup.
- 55 replies
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- kohl stewart
- miguel sano
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A few days okay I wrote about Polanco and SS and I found him wanting as a defensive and future SS for a championship team, but what about 3B? Are we set with Sano? In this article https://calltothepen.com/2013/02/07/bold-prospect-comparisons-miguel-sano/ written five years ago Sano was the third best prospect in the majors, "Sano potential has a 70-grade power tool and 70-grade arm strength. Meaning he will be expected to hit 35 or more bombs a year and have one of the stronger arms in the league. His hit tool should be about major league average, maybe slightly below average. That is a .250-.270 hitter. His fielding is below average and so is his speed.He may swipe double digits in his early years but it isn’t considered a part of his overall game." Well that might be overly optimistic. However, along with Byron Buxton, he was the cornerstone for the future. This year Sano has a -0.4 WAR, he is batting 202, has a long stint in the minors to make corrections and is back as a fixture at 3B. And his comps, according to Baseball Reference are pretty bleak in my assessment: Michael Conforto (960.5) Randal Grichuk (959.3) Adam Duvall (959.2) Chris Duncan (957.3) Eric Thames (947.2) Domingo Santana (944.1) Bud Souchock (943.5) Travis Shaw (942.4) Dusty Rhodes (939.5) Chuck Essegian (939.4) In 182 MLB games he is batting 245, but this year he is batting 202. Last year he had 3.1 offensive WAR and this year he is 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.5 Defensive WAR. We knew that he would not be Brooks Robinson or Pie Traynor or any great 3B, but his hitting would make up for it. It has not. In Fantasy sports - CBS https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/rankings/h2h/3B/ he is not in the top 40. I am sure that must be wrong. On ESPN he currently ranks 49th at 3B. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/rankings/h2h/3B/ I went to many of the rankings and he does not rank except in the mind of the Twins fans. So what's up. Is he the future star or a bust? Is the another Mark Reynolds, or Kingman? Or is he someone we can build around. Combine Buxton and Sano and we have lousy BA, good HRs, Excellent fielding (last two categories apply to only one). When I looked at Polanco I asked if a team that looks at a future championship can put Polanco as there every day SS. I have to ask the same for Sano. But who can replace him? I know some will expect to resign Escobar - I don't. But among prospects who is it? Blankenship? Move Polanco to 3B? I have this desire to have a World Series again and that means I want better than average at every position. Right now 3B is my second question mark.
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For years baseball played with shortstops that could cover a lot of ground and if they hit well it was a bonus - Marty Marion and Ozzie Smith made the hall like this. Mark Belanger was the glue of Earl Weaver's championship Orioles and Zoilo Versalles brought the Twins to their first World Series. Now we masquerade SS with all the shifts but still we look at Lindor and Correa and other great gloves with great arms as prototype shortstops. Notice how many professional athletes began as Shortstops - that includes Sano. Because the best athlete was the SS. On a site called Dick's Pro Tips the little league teams are given this advise - "Arguably, this should be one of your best defensive players. The shortstop should show great range and the ability to field sharply hit baseballs. Choose someone who has an above-average arm, as many of their throws will be a great distance." Some might argue catcher and they get a lot of points, but they do not have to move as fast and as many directions, catch hops, drives, popups, and bad hops. Nor do they turn DPs. Think about what happens when a shortstop blows a catch, misses on a DP, or drops a pop up. We can put big oafs that hit Homeruns at 1B and even 3B, but not at SS. We can put good gloves with limited range at 2B (hate to say that since I played 2B), but at SS we want quickness, range, and arm. It is a position that demands a lot and is involved in a lot. I bring that up because Polanco is really disappointing this year. I do not have a stat that tells me how much offense is needed to offset bad defense. He has now reached 50 Errors at SS, not counting other positions, in 3 years. Too many. His fielding percentage, his errors, and his defensive WAR are all near the bottom. If the Twins are going to move up in the standings, we have to move up in the quality of each position and Jorge is not cutting it right now. Do we have hope that will change?
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Polanco is a major disappointment. Do we have any stats that tell us how much offense is required to overcome a horrible defense? I loved the old days of players like Mark Belanger at SS who caught everything and help the infield together. Polanco is a real disappointment. He needs to be at 2B or out of the middle infield. His bat is not that good! Of course none of the bats are that good. Sano 202, Austin 232, Field 194, Kepler 225. Not championship ball nor is the fact that in the HR era we have one player with more than 20 HRs - Rosario with 22.
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I share the call up frustration. Fields - NO, Belisle - why ask? Same with Gimenez! Calling Byron Buxton........... Petit is okay, but we have plenty of room, why has Vargas no good-bye call up? I do not care what Gordon did in AAA, put him up and let us see him, or are you telling me that Ironhands Polanco is the SS of the future. Glad to add two more pitchers, but this has been one crazy merri-go-round season ending.
- 30 replies
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- mitchell kranson
- chase de jong
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If your logic was not good, Falvey and Levine would not be trying to think of ways to make amends to Buxton. Obviously they know that they have blown their relationship. Next time they want Buxton to play while hurt I imagine his agent might have a response!
- 12 comments
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- minnesota twins
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Article: TEX 18, MIN 4: Speechless
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This game is so bad that the announcers think the other team should quit? Sorry, the Twins quit a long time ago - the other teams are better than that.- 70 replies
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- gabriel moya
- zack littell
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Article: TEX 18, MIN 4: Speechless
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hope so, I am not sure that they know what to do in that situation.- 70 replies
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- gabriel moya
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Article: TEX 18, MIN 4: Speechless
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So this was the exciting game where we had an OPENER - wow, here Littell you are only down 2 - 0. What a joke! Some analytics. The same analytics that have Gimenez on 1B and Belisle coming in. Do not blame the ump for anything, he probably wanted to have a suit of armor back there. Field was our one big bat call up and now has an amazing 196 average. Excellent metrics. :Gimenez managed to reduce our already too low rating at 1B to the bottom basement. Adrianza played 3B so Sano would not drop his BA below 200. Kepler kept his average at 226, but we still think he is good !? Tyler Duffey proved that his previous failures were not a fluke and Moya can give up his dreams of being a starter (or an opener). Reed keeps his opposition scoring streak alive. Man so many highlights I cannot go on.- 70 replies
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- gabriel moya
- zack littell
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Article: TEX 18, MIN 4: Speechless
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So painful I was writing a blog in the second inning - http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1028/entry-11208-whos-at-first/ and then had to amend it because it got even worse. See my blog - I was disgusted in the second inning - http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1028/entry-11208-whos-at-first/- 70 replies
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- gabriel moya
- zack littell
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Wow - no Abbott and Costello needed for this joke - just Falvey and Levine. The Twins are playing right now against the Rangers - okay, just 60 games left, open roster, we could bring up Vargas, Wade, Petit, Wiel and have a nice surprise players at first base. Or we could stay with Mauer or Austin, or give Sano or Grossman the 1B glove for a day. But not this advanced metrics group of geniuses - nope we outsmarted everyone. We swung a secret trade of Wilson for Gimenez to boost our future and not behind the plate - nope, we needed to get Gimenez bat in the line up and Astudillo was set for catcher, so Gimenez at 1B. Wow, I wonder how Chris stacks up among all 1B in the majors this year? How about last? Only the Twins were smart enough to redefine what a 1B player should look like and ignore the eight who might be considered for the position to come up with New Baseball. Forget Moneyball; we are into Washed Up Ball. Of course he is in position to take the mound after Belisle does his mound magic. Update - I was so upset I could not wait for Texas to score 18 runs, but now it is over and Belisle gave up a run without a hit, out, error, but one big HBP and then thrown out. This allowed him to secure his 8.01 ERA and then as I had anticipated our pitcher in waiting Gimenez came it - let's hear the collective Hooray! And one inning, six hits, and five runs later the game was over. Falvey, Levine - congratulations on maneuvering our roster so we could accomplish this great feat!
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- abbott and costello
- first base
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Article: TEX 7, MIN 4: Is Jose OK?
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One more thought, or group of thoughts: Is this what a September Call up for a losing team is supposed to look like? Belisle and Gimenez? We need a washed up 38 year old arm, and another second string catcher who cannot hit and was sent to the minors by the cubs? Astudillo is much more fun than any of these other hitless catchers. Gimenez is 35, and has 1.3 WAR over 10 years and he was batting 143 this year. Belisle is 38 and has a -0.6WAR for this year. What else do you need to know. So that makes two our call ups. Johnny Field has a collective 200 BA over 197 ABs. He is 26. In 6 seasons in the minors he has batted 270. What do we expect to get from him? Is he worth a spot over Wade or even old friend Vargas? Tyler Duffey had a wonderful debut (considering the Twins history that should have made us suspicious) and since then we have seen him struggle and fail at numerous roles. Is it time to try someone else? He has a career -0.5 WAR. Finally there is one I am excited by - Vasquez. Thank you. But while other teams are looking at their prospect list we are looking at the next to retire lists. What gives? Those of you who defend this FO have to tell me what great analytic strategy they are employing because once again I am at a loss. As bad as we have been and with no limits why aren't we building an addition to house all the minor league arms we can find and try them all?- 23 replies
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- jose berrios
- jake cave
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Article: TEX 7, MIN 4: Is Jose OK?
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One comment that stood out - they only young guys that are shining are those that came up through the Yankee system. Our guys are their throw aways, they have two going for rookie of the year. So what does the Yankee system do that prepares their minor league players to advance that our Twins system does not. I read TD minor league reports get excited about seeing the guy in the majors and then the audition stinks, over and over and over. What is happening? Even when there is a good start - Romero, the wheels fall off, we demote and forget. How many coaches does this team need?- 23 replies
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- jose berrios
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A question that these posts bring up for me. How often do players who are traded in season sign back with their original clubs? I know Chapman signed with the Yankees, but I cannot think of others. So many postings sound like Escobar is easy to sign, but I do not see it that way.
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Article: MIN 10, TEX 7: Tex-plosion!
mikelink45 replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What is this love affair with mediocre and below - Giminez, Belisle - are they going to help us meet our potential? I really think Romero deserves to be up. Are we really so short on hitting prospects that only Field got the call this round? The FO did not get any points for these moves. I do hope Vasquez does well, I am really disappointed in the relief pitchers we have called up. Is this Duffey's last chance? Final thought - tonight Gonsalves got really frustrated by the umpire squeezing him on some very good pitches. Its time to use the electronic system. No more squeezing the rookies and expanding for the vets.- 23 replies
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- jake cave
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Article: Hardball, the Twins, and Byron Buxton
mikelink45 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well written. As the TD official (my designation) critic of this FO, I agree. What is their plan? What do they want to accomplish? I am not interested in service time if the player does not maximize his potential. -
Here is a fangraph comps study - I thought it might be good to bring in another opinion - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-max-kepler-and-statcast-power-comps/ This was in 2016 - based on his stats not much has changed. These are the comparable batters in 2018 according to Baseball Reference: Elijah Dukes (983.2) Oswaldo Arcia (979.3) Aaron Guiel (974.6) Kyle Blanks (971.6) Brant Alyea (970.3) Damon Hollins (969.3) Byron Browne (968.7) Jorge Soler (968.7) Ken Hunt (968.7) Mike Kelly (967.7) Again, this is not the list I anticipated when we brought Kepler up.
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It's funny that you should mention that. I was about to go back and edit my statement. He is batting .227 - is it too much to expect a BA of 250? His career BA is 235. Is that really acceptable? His WAR is 2.4 and I am getting dizzy from this STAT - what does that mean - only that since we have won 61 games someone has to get credit for the wins. He averages 14 HR and 45 RBIs - is this what you expected when he came up as the big three - Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler. You might have seen him as an average or below batter, I had hopes of a Rosario take off. Sorry, but Kepler has really fallen short of my hopes and if he represents the future we can expect to be mediocre for a long time. Thanks for setting me off again!
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Why is Busenitz having such a difficult time adjusting to MLB? I have no answer - just a question. I still say Odorizzi is a perfect multi-inning BP pitcher. Just do not let batters see him three times. Some TD posters do not like my take on Kepler, but 227 is not an acceptable BA for him. If he has a positive WAR it raises my skepticism about that stat. Kepler is not meeting anyone's projection - what next? Now the challenge for the Twins is to not lose 90 games. Good luck.
- 27 replies
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- jake odorizzi
- alan busenitz
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Actually I was not suggesting that he be sent down, but I do expect him to hit more than 235 and the only solution we have had for players who do not reach their goals and expectations is to send them down. I still think that Kepler has plateaued way too early and something needs to be done, but who will help him move forward. I have not seen any indication that this team knows how to do it.

