MMBoys93

In April, Martin had a .947 OPS against lefties. Since then, .651 OPS. His ability to do damage vs lefties is the only reason he’s still on a major league roster and he hasn’t done it since April. He’s hitting leadoff every single game against lefties. What are we doing, Shelton?

Starting to tire a little bit from the lefty lineups. Martin- .165 BA since middle of May Caratini- .650 ops vs LHP Kreidler- .573 ops vs LHP Throwing all righties in the lineup is not always the best move. FYI- Alex Jackson has 4 PAs in the last 14 days. Why is he even here still? His metrics are awful, if he gets claimed, who cares. If a day comes where they need a catcher, I’m sure they can find a guy with an xSLG of .264. playoff chances down to 13%, Tigers ahead of them, 43 games left…do something different

Check out his metrics compared to the others. This isn’t the 1970s

Sometimes I do wish Shelton was bigger on analytics. Roden has more walks than K’s, solid metrics and AAA numbers to back it up, and his reward is 2 plate appearances in the last 4 days while guys like Caratini, Martin and Kreidler play every day with OPS’ in the .400s over the past month.

I just don’t get it. Roden had an .850 ops against lefties in AAA. He gets lifted for Martin, but Kreidler who has a .580 ops against lefties and hasn’t hit for 2 months sticks in the game

And Kreidler has a .580 ops against lefties

I’m tired of Martin. Let Roden hit .196 with a .268 SLG over Martin’s last 30 games, almost all ABs against lefties where he “excels”

A team ranking 27th against lefties can’t afford to remove Martin. They could very much benefit from finding a way to add Sabato to the roster. 1.300 ops against Lefties. He’d fill an even nicher role, but definitely more exciting as a PH option that Austin Martin currently is and Culpepper, Martin, Sabato all in the lineup against a lefty starter is a huge improvement on paper

He’s the Byron Buxton of relievers and that means he fits right in. I don’t mean that to say he’s injury prone, just that when he’s on he’s one of the best and when he’s not he’s one of the worst. No middle ground

Yeah, that’s the part that was funny to me as well. If you remember the Poorlads cut some scouting jobs just last year to save a few bucks.

Take a look at Kreidler’s numbers vs lefties when you get a chance 😉

Brewers throwing out 2 lefties and the best pitcher in baseball so this is absolutely necessary. Kreidler’s numbers against lefties are ghastly so this should help. Has to be Gray or Jackson getting the boot.

I’m targeting guys who have shown defensive competence and potentially have more to unlock offensively that their current org can’t help with. And obviously starting pitching. Guys entering Arb 1- Arb 2 next year or super 2 Arb 1-3, even pre-arb guys if the team is far enough away from contending or not sold on the player. Oakland, LAA comes to mind. Baltimore obviously just sold Rutschman so they’re likely open for business. Miami, Washington, St Louis, Cincy, Pit. It’ll take some scouting effort but Twins did well on Bradley, Pablo. It’ll cost prospects or other MLB ready players but if the Twins feel they can unlock more out of someone, then I’m all for it. TB and MIL have done this for years.

Looking at free agents is the wrong way to spend money. Trading teams that are rebuilding for controllable talent and signing players to early extensions is the way to do it. This is exactly the way that Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Milwaukee build perennial contending teams. Then they can use free agency to supplement where the team might still be lacking.

Ackchuualllyyy the 108m payroll in 2015 translates to 148m with inflation so payroll hasn’t been this bad since 2009 when the payroll was a dreadful 57m or 85m today. Even the payrolls of 80-85 million in 2013-2014 are 115-120m with inflation. Translation- no fans should be doing any praise until the payroll goes up 20% at bare freaking minimum

They also had to add better prospect capital to the trade all to save 3.5 million on Jeff Hoffman next year. I can’t imagine he’s lying, but he doesn’t say how much here. Payroll is still 40 million less than 2023 Payroll is still almost 20 million lower than in 2018. Inflation has been 33% since then. 128 million in 2018 is 170 million now. “Things will be weird with likely lockout but if the plan isn’t shooting for 140 million minimum for this “contending team” they keep screaming about then the Pohlad’s don’t befront me.” - George Thorogood

Rosters are set and regardless of what you think of the deadline, it's over and now the focus is on making the playoffs. Adding Jenkins is what everyone wants but let’s look at the full picture. The bats have slowed since the deadline. 24th in team OPS in last 30 days with a plethora of guys who aren't strong defensively as well. Ideas on should be replaced (in no particular order)- Josh Bell- played in 95% of games with an OPS+ of 99. Bell has taken about 70% of all DH ABs meaning that guys like Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Keaschall have had to play the field at times this year when the Twins could hide their fielding inefficiencies at DH more often. Austin Martin- only plays against Lefties and as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Provided a ton of value early when there were tons of Lefty starters in the first month, but really only provides OBP against lefties, and with less playing time his ABs vs lefties have gotten tougher. He’s still a net positive when he plays but he’s just barely playing. Twins are still awful against lefties as a team. Alex Jackson- I’m not really sure why the Twins didn’t elect to trade a catcher and this is heavily dependent on how much catching they feel Jeffers can do, but Jackson’s expected numbers are rough. He just finally took his first walk, is striking out almost 1/3 of the time. He likely gets claimed but we’re going for the playoffs right? Caratini- he’s played in 72% of games this year, a lot of that because Jeffers was injured, but a backup catcher with an OPS+ of 86 should be playing 40% of the rest of the way max. Jeffers hopefully can start 60% at catcher. Ryan Kreidler- starting daily because there are no other defensively competent SS options at the moment- metrics say he’s the same hitter he’s always been. Even with one incredible game in the past week he’s at a .528 ops in his last 30 games. Would be a bench guy on other playoff teams. Gray- Not strong defensively, stopped hitting, really provides no value. Options to replace these ABs- Kaelen Culpepper- sub .500 ops in 50 PAs since returning from injured list but as he returns to form, he can easily replace 50-70% of Kreidler’s innings as long as he hits. He’s hit righties and lefties equally so he can play every day if he hits. Kreidler can fill in defensively later in the game, but Aaron Sabato- an odd pick to replace/supplement Martin. He’s probably as bad defensively as Josh Bell but he’s hit lefties at a 1.226 ops this year in St Paul. He’d require a 40 man addition but could fill a very unique role the Twins need as they struggle against lefties again. Hendry Mendez- I get he’s only 22 but he’s already on the 40 and has hit extremely well at 2 levels. 3:4 BB/K ratio in AAA and a .900 ops vs righties tells me he’s as ready as he can be. Defensively limited to LF hurts his value with Larnach however. Alan Roden- yeah he’s already on the team but in 21 games he has 49 PAs. He had a 1.000 ops against righties, .850 against lefties, is more defensively competent in the outfield than most on the team and has held about a 1:1 BB/K ratio in AAA/MLB combined. Savant likes his early quality of AB but wants him to hit the ball harder. His LD rate in the minors gives me some pause, but he could be playing more. Walker Jenkins- top prospect, healthy, .777 ops in July. 21 years old. Everyone would be excited to see him but he’d need to play every day and I’d expect offensive warts early but could provide some needed juice/excitement. Buxton and Mauer both came up at 21. Buxton struggled, Mauer did not. Has produced almost no power against lefties in the minors but he seems to see the ball well. Matt Wallner- ending with everyone’s favorite option. He’d really only work if Bell is kicked to the curb, which isn’t going to happen right now. I’ll only point out that he has an ops north of 1.000 against righties in AAA and still has an ops of .849 against righties over his career. My takes: Finding room for Martin and Sabato on the team could really help that 26th ranked OPS against lefties. Idk how you work it though and you wouldn’t need it unless you expect a bunch of lefties soon. Gray should go down immediately. Lee can play SS every once in a while. Gray provides nothing better than Kreidler. Jackson DFA when Buxton returns. He has no remaining options, but 3 catchers is not helpful. Bell and Caratini play more sparingly. Tough to open up a spot for more than one guy when Buxton returns, so everything goes back to Josh Bell for me. Is a 99 ops+ worth it? The negative effect he has on the team fielding by being the DH every day hurts a ton. He’s not worthless by any means, but 0.4 bWAR could be replaced in so many ways.

Atlanta, Arizona, Texas have one big difference they spend a lot more money. Twins are so lucky they’re in the central and can pretend to contend at .500 and please a huge group of fans that way. I despise the Yankees and their fans but sometimes I wish their fans ruthlessness could be sprinkled on us a little bit. Let the Pohlad’s roll all over us for years and buying a couple relievers whose best days are behind them and everyone has hope again. Stockholm syndrome

The Pohlad’s only proved that their good cop, bad cop routine would fool the masses. Tom didn’t actually fix any of Joe’s mistakes. They did, however, create a plan to do a little that creates a big impact on their inheritance. I still believe they want to sell at some point but right now it’s about putting fans in seats, and fans fell for the act hook, line and sinker. They didn’t get measurably better to make an impact on their playoff chances and certainly not their true contention status. Chicago and Cleveland brought in equal, if not better assets at the deadline. Twins are still third best in the division and still have a 30-40% chance of making the playoffs. What do the top tier small payroll teams do at the trade deadline to stay in contention for years to come? Not this. They don’t wave to their quality players as they leave for free agency and they certainly don’t half-ass buy at the deadline when their team is under .500

Still have 3 catchers clogging up roster spots, still have a plethora of average hitters who suck defensively clogging roster spots and even with the acquisitions, Cleveland did better and Chicago who is a much better team did about the same as Minnesota.

Tom, Joe, Jim…maybe the Pohlad’s should be a little more creative with names. I’m bad enough with names lol

2 hours before?? Thought the deadline was 6pm EST

It’s less about Hoffman for Hill and more about “buying” actually meaning acquiring 3 pitchers who were way better in the past. and losing out on a haul for Jeffers in the meantime while watching the 2 teams ahead of you in the standings getting better than the Twins got. But that’s exactly how I figured “buying” would go lol

Assuming they are done, this is a very meh trade deadline for a team that said that they are buyers when they shouldn’t be. Jeffers and Larnach could’ve gotten back a really solid return but instead we get an older reliever who was very good three years ago, but has lost a lot on his fast ball, a starting pitcher who I still struggle to see having a fit on this team and a reliever with great strikeout numbers, but is about the least clutch closer in the league today. White Sox and Guardians both did better today and are still better teams. Just like I figured, this was a face saving exercise by Jim Pohlad. “We actually tried this time!”

He’s 20 years old and has a k/9 of 15.4 lol. Outside of some bumpy control cause he’s you know…20, he’s striking people out at a rate you just don’t see.