JW24

Trade Garver and Polanco when their value has bottomed out? I don't think the Twins front office is considering that. The 2020 season was a weird one, and I hope the Twins front office wouldn't make short-sighted trades based entirely on those results. Looking at the projected lineup at the end of the article, resigning Cruz should be a priority for no other reason than to add some stability.

I would like to see the Twins let Odorizzi, Marwin, Romo and Rosie go this offseason. The money saved from Odo, Marwin and Romo ($33.3M prior to the COVID proration) could give the Twins the ability to sign Trevor Bauer. While there are more obvious needs for the roster, Bauer gives the Twins an elite rotation. I have nothing to add about Rosie that hasn't already been said above. I would be willing to take Adrianza back on a similar deal to this year; his contract is essentially a rounding error in the books and he can take over Marwin's job. I would like to bring May back, but it is quite possible he will be given close to the dollar amount it would take to sign Cruz, and I don't see the Twins signing both guys. I think Cruz is the more important guy to bring back. Time to start giving the young guys in the minors a chance. Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, maybe even Lewis. Fill in the back end of the bullpen with the power arms in the minors as well.

I would rather keep May over either Romo or Clippard, and allowing those 2 to walk frees up $7.5M from what was committed this season. It isn't a matter of effectiveness, just a function of not being able to pay everybody. Adrianza's contract next year would be a rounding error on the books, and his defensive versatility is worth a lot in my opinion. If he can hit more like he did in 2019 than this year, he would be a strong asset off the bench. As for Buxton, when he is healthy, he is the most important player to the Twins and it isn't particularly close. Nick Nelson tweeted out the Twins winning percentage over the past couple years with Buxton in and out of the lineup and it is a huge gap. With 2 more years of team control, by the time Buxton would hit the market, it is very possible he is asking for Gerrit Cole money, and I think a deal could be worked out that would benefit both Buxton and the Twins. I am betting on him staying healthy and playing 140+ games consistently, which he obviously hasn't done yet. The Twins might be taking on more risk in this scenario, but the reward could be huge.

Is there a thread started yet for offseason moves? Twins have some big decisions looming. In regards to this article, I hope the Twins bring back May on something like a 3/$15M type deal (let Romo and Clippard walk), I hope Adrianza is back on a similar deal (letting Marwin walk), and let Odorizzi go. I think the Twins could essentially take the money paid to Romo, Clippard, May, Adrianza, Odorizzi and Marwin this year and turn it into May, Adrianza and Trevor Bauer next year. At least that is what I am hoping for. Off the topic of this article, I would also like to see a big Buxton extension this offseason. He still is under team control for 2 years, would something like 8/$160 get the job done? Please feel free to redirect my comments to a more appropriate thread if such exists.

I think this idea gets halfway to the finish line. You are asking the players to extend themselves into the lives of a police officer without asking the police officer to experience the discrimination the players are fighting to change. There is not a conversation taking place currently. You have one side pleading for change and the other side saying no changes are needed. Until it is recognized on both sides there is need for change, no action will occur and no bridge can be built.

Second game of the season last year Rocco let Kepler stay in to hit against Brad Hand in the 9th, in a game the Twins wound up losing. The confidence he showed in Kepler there might have had some positive impact through the rest of the season. Same thing goes for Taylor Rogers now - it is more important to go through the struggles now than wonder what we can count on from him come playoff time. If anything, putting him into the highest leverage situations in a given game rather than every save opportunity might be the way to go. Big win for the Twins, I really hope they find a way to score more than 4 runs in a game again this season.

This was awesome to see. The Twins have been fairly lifeless over the past few weeks, and I suspect Romo was trying to fire up his team more than anything else here. Now the Twins need to come out and play well tonight or they are going to be getting an earful from the Royals dugout. Nice to see a little bad blood between these teams too. Baseball is more fun when you legitimately dislike who you play.

I've seen comments you have made in other threads saying you were hoping the Twins would draft the next Chris Sale this year. I suspect Tyler Jay, who is a lanky LHP with the FB/SL combo Sale has perfected, fit that intent. Just goes to show how challenging it is to draft someone who reaches that potential.

I thought the Twins drafted really well considering their limitations. Both of their first 2 picks look to me* as guys who will eventually make it to the big leagues. With how risky drafting pitchers is, and with only 4 picks, I like that they didn't draft a pitcher early just to do so, and got someone with big upside in the 4th round. *not a scout

For how atrocious the Twins were in 2016, I actually have some really good memories of this season. I went to Seattle with some friends over Memorial Day weekend and saw the Twins sweep the Mariners. Mauer and Sano both homered in all 3 games. I also went out to Boston in July and saw the Twins win 2 out of 3 against the Sox. Boston fans congratulated me personally after the Twins won as if I had anything to do with it. Weird fans out there. Oh yeah, my first kid was born that August. By then, the Twins season was pretty well shot. I watched the Twins lose to the Braves from the NICU, holding my phone in one hand and my new daughter in the other. That might be my favorite game I have ever watched. Thanks again for a great recap!

The thing I remember most about 2015 is that I went to 9 Twins games that summer (White Sox opening day in Chicago, 2 games at Miller Park, 3 in KC, and 3 at Target Field) and Tommy Milone started 5 of those games. 7.2 shutout innings for W #1 against the Sox, a really good duel with Mike Fiers in Milwaukee that Casey Fien blew (4 earned, 0 outs), another nice game in KC during the weekend Sano made his debut, and a couple games I can't remember the specifics of at Target Field. This was a really fun year; I remember watching more baseball the first couple months (May especially) than I did the previous 3 years combined. Thanks for the write up and the memories, especially the 9th inning comeback against Detroit.

I understand what you are saying, and I understand why the assumption is that Garver's numbers will regress, along with many others who all had career years last year. I just don't think you can look at a guy who has played a grand total of 218 regular season games (and 3 post season games) and say definitively that he has had his best season and will therefore regress. Every career year looks like a candidate for regression until that player improves upon it. My original point was simply that I would bet on Garver having a better year in 2020 than he did in 2019 before I would bet on him having a worse year.

Agreed completely. The idea that guys will regress after career years is overblown, especially when they have such a small sample size to compare their career year to! Garver did not hit many cheap homers last year. His swing is so powerful for how compact it is that when he makes contact, it is loud. I would bet on him out-producing last season assuming he stays healthy and gets the same opportunities before I would bet on him regressing.

I like your idea of pairing Graterol with a starter, and Smeltzer is a good option since their pitching styles are vastly different. I would also be interested in having Graterol paired with Odorizzi. Jake can get 18 outs extremely consistently. Graterol could basically show up to the ball park knowing he needs to be ready to take over in the 7th inning and try to finish the game. This could help build both his routine as his stamina.

Seeing as to how Eddie is still a Twin, I could name 29 other teams that wouldn't trade for him. There is no reason at all to trade Eddie away for nothing and the Twins are very aware of this. I think a lot of frustration regarding his performance last year can be alleviated this year by dropping him from 4th in the order to 7th or so, and the Donaldson signing should allow for this. The best course of action for the Twins is probably just to let this year play out with Eddie as the every day LF, and reassess his value at the end of the season. If he really was injured for most of last season I think we could assume some positive regression this year. Hopefully Kirilloff or Larnach get some MLB reps this season to make the decision more obvious going into 2021.

Maybe the Twins are figuring out how to cheat more effectively than any other MN team. By having Rosario hitting 4th, swinging at everything, no one would assume the Twins are relaying signs to hitters. That is where Houston went wrong, you need to have at least one free swinger in the lineup to prevent suspicion.

Hamels averaged just over 5 innings per start last season. If the Twins bring back Odorizzi, my interest in Hamels would be minimal. Having 2 (relatively) expensive SP who you can't count on to get through 6 innings consistently is not how you build a World Series capable rotation. As with all theoretical signings, it all comes down to dollars. If Hamels is willing to sign for a reasonable price, I wouldn't have any problem with it regardless of Odorizzi's status.

Nice analysis. The section on how Berrios can better utilize his change up next season interested me the most as I thought that was a really decent pitch for him this past season. The thing I think Berrios needs to do is add a few MPH to his fastball, and find a way to sustain his velocity throughout the course of the season. His annual August swoon seems to coincide with lower fastball velocity. I don't have any numbers to support my claim, so take it for what it is worth. His off-season workouts look great, but he might need a slightly more focused approach to pitching than flipping tires on a beach to elevate himself into the upper echelon of MLB starting pitchers. I am excited to see what steps forward he makes next year.

On the topic of "Off-the-radar" pitchers to target in a trade, how about Blake Snell? He signed an extension recently that takes him through his age 30 season, when he would be making $16.6M. The Rays don't have much incentive to trade him, but I think the asking price for Snell is less than what the Padres might want for Paddack considering the financials.

With Buxton, I think the Twins have had every intent of signing him to a huge contract once he earns it with his play on the field. His 3 month stretch in 2017 and the way he started 2019 certainly showed he is deserving of a huge extension, health permitting. Gaining the extra year of team control does not prevent the Twins from offering Buxton an extension; it provides both team and player with additional time to evaluate on-field performance and discuss future value. I hope the Twins offer Buxton an extension this off-season (I think he will figure out how to stay healthy, nothing to support my opinion), rendering the extra year of control relatively moot.

I supported the Twins decision last year with how they handled Buxton. I thought it made complete sense in that it gave the organization an extra year of team control (and evaluation) for a guy who played 3 phenomenal months of baseball over 4 partial years of MLB play. It also prevented Buxton from sustaining some sort of injury that would have prevented him from coming into 2019 at full strength. I got roasted on Twitter by a some Twins beat writers, but I think it was the correct decision by the front office. The issue at hand isn't that the front office has done Kris Bryant or Byron Buxton wrong, but the fact that the rules regarding team control provide incentives to teams to hold players down in the minors to gain an extra year of team control. Players are rightfully getting fed up with ownership fielding less than their best teams for weeks/months at a time in order to save some money years down the road. Finally, the free agent market from the past couple years shows how reluctant front offices are becoming to paying for past performance. Players will struggle to receive fair compensation over the course of their careers (based on production) due to how long teams can suppress salaries for players on rookie contracts. Mitch Garver is a perfect example; he will not become a free agent until he is 33 years old in 2024. Without an extension from the Twins prior to becoming a free agent, he stands to make ~$15M (estimate). If he were able to be a free agent this off season he would get a contract making at least $15M per year until 2024. By the team he actually is eligible for free agency, he might be playing year-to-year. Rules need to be adjusted to compensate guys sooner in their careers and remove the incentives to hold players in the minor leagues for financial gain, in my opinion.

Boston made it to the WS (and won it) in 2018. David Price was the big earner at $30M, with Rick Porcello making north of $20M as well. Sale was their best pitcher, of course, and was only paid $12.5M. To your main point, however, it is more important to have 3 of the best pitchers in baseball than to pay 3 pitchers the most money and hope they become the 3 best because they are getting paid.

Sure they could. It would just mean less money elsewhere.

There have been rumors (who knows how much truth there is to them) that the Red Sox are interested in possibly moving Betts due to payroll issues. Rosario and Kirilloff to start the conversation with Boston in a deal that would send Betts to MN?

Like the original poster, I was really interested in Robbie Ray at the deadline this year. He finished 2nd in the NL to Scherzer in K/9, but only Jon Lester averaged more pitches per inning than Ray in the NL (among qualified starters). If the Twins can acquire Ray and figure out how he can reduce his walk rate, he seems like the type of guy who could really break out and challenge for a front-of-rotation spot.