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launchingthrees

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Everything posted by launchingthrees

  1. launchingthrees
    There are people in this very thread arguing that he's missing bats because he's shelving his slider. Multiple people still have him in their top 10 twin's prospect lists. It's laughable. There is a non-0 chance that he's a major league regular, sure. But when you're talking 1/1000 chance. Let's just call it 0.
  2. launchingthrees
    This is an exciting time to be a twins fan. We have 5 legitimate options in the OF next year. I don't think it's hyperbole to call it an embarrassment of riches. Do they want to have an elite range/uzr/fielding group(Rosario,Buxton,Hicks)? Do we want to throw arcia in there as a platoon hitter? Should Kepler get some burn in AAA for service time reason? These are fun questions to ask and answer.
  3. launchingthrees
    It's difficult to get serious analysis on a twins player from a twins forum. People want him to be good, and we will rationalize all his weaknesses because that's what fans do. Look at those defending him. They are holding on to the ridiculous idea that his strikeout #s are bad because the twins are protecting a 21 year old pitcher in his 3rd year by not having him throw sliders. It's absurd. We have thousands of examples of pitching prospects from the last 20 years. Can anyone give a single example, just one, of a pitcher with his k/9/age combination that ended up being elite? Even considering him a major league prospect right now is a stretch. It's fun to be optimistic but the level of analysis going on here is youtube comment worthy. He won't be included in a single top 100 prospect list. His K/9 # guarantees(literally 100%) he won't be elite at the next level. Every single national scout has written him off. The best we can hope for is that he ends up as a back end starter, possibly an average reliever. Most high school pitchers bust. He's a bust. Time to move on.
  4. launchingthrees
    Yeah I think a lot of people are confused as to what they are doing with Jones. Pitchers are regressing in their late 20s and he's a legit strikeout phenom at 24. What do they want him to do?
  5. launchingthrees
    The season is young enough as it is. Breaking production down into first 6 games vs middle 10 games vs last 7 games isn't informative at all. I understand articles need to be written and writing an article saying "we don't know much right now so let's give it more time" won't get as many page views but this type of analysis doesn't do anyone here any favors. On the forum we constantly see "after starting his first 10 games batting xyz he's now batting zyx in his last 10 games. It's purely statistical noise and over-analyzing. A 10 game sample should have no part in any quality analysis, and yet we say it time and time again. "in the month of may....... happened." No in the month of may absolutely nothing of significance has happened.
  6. launchingthrees
    This is not true even a little bit. Where are you getting this from? Edit: I see jokin did the work.
  7. launchingthrees
    He's not a major league caliber player. They could replace his production immediately with any number of replacement level players.
  8. launchingthrees
    Gotta love the people who think 50 ABs is indicative of anything other than statistical noise.
  9. launchingthrees
    "PiPress Mike Berardino, who is killing it this offseaon" I hope you aren't including this article in the "killing it" category. Anyone attaching a narrative to 20-30 at-bats is at best misinformed.
  10. launchingthrees
    I've become embarrassingly addicted to Pennantwars.com. You essentially build your own team via free agency/draft/trades. Your team then sims 6 games per day. The sim engine is smarter than I would have expected and there's room to test your roster building strategies against some pretty smart people. Another popular game seems to be ootpdevelopments.com/ but I only played one season. Anyone else willing to admit to playing? As spammy as this post sounds I have no connection to either of these games.
  11. launchingthrees
    The Twins Pitch to Contact Like No One Ever | FanGraphs Baseball Would you say the Twins historically low strikeout rate for pitchers is a reflection of the organization's philosophy? The author of the above article suggests it must be given how far the twin's deviate from the the 2nd lowest strikeout staff. "Eight Twins starters have thrown at least 30 innings. Overall, 188 starters have thrown at least 30 innings. All eight of those Twins starters rank in the bottom 29 individual strikeout rates. Not a one of them is above the 16th percentile. There’s another way of putting this in perspective: Twins starters have that 12.2% strikeout rate. The next-lowest is 15.6%, which belongs to the Rockies. So it’s not like the Twins are in last but are nipping at another team’s heels. The Twins are so deep in last you’d almost think this would be something they’re proud of. You’d almost think it has to be deliberate, that the Twins have zigged where all the other teams zagged. But then, the Twins are middle of the pack in walks"
  12. launchingthrees
    Is this a serious response? I'm bad at detecting sarcasm over the internet.
  13. launchingthrees
    It'll be a slap in the face if they don't spend the money they saved last year. Remember they promised 50-52% of revenue?
  14. launchingthrees
    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/06/12/japanese-baseball-officials-admit-to-altering-the-baseball-to-increase-offense/ So isn't the opposite true? Since he has been so productive with a juiced baseball you must be enthusiastic about signing him!
  15. launchingthrees
    It doesn't matter if it's insulting. It matters if it's accurate. TR sounds like my crazy uncle who talks about how cheap kit kat bars were back in the day. He's a dinosaur and every interview he does makes it more clear he's overmatched.
  16. launchingthrees
    I'd rather risk 40 million on 1-2 year deals than the 100% certainty of being horrible for the 4th straight year.
  17. launchingthrees
    That's a pretty unlikely path for a 17 year old. His number are absurd though.
  18. launchingthrees
    You: his stats were identical under Anderson and Duncan someone: no they weren't. They were better under Duncan you: yeah well a 101/94 era+ isn't significantly significant(lol confidence intervals) me: well he was also worse in terms of FIP with the twins you:You need to use FIP- to adjust for league/ballpark me: he was also better under Duncan in terms of FIP- you: well those stats aren't 100% accurate Pitchers on average get worse when they come to the Twins and better when they leave. This is demonstrably true. Being a diehard is fun but it also causes you to take awfully poor positions in the hopes of defending your team. Do you remember when you said Hicks will get votes for rookie of the year? This was a lot like that.
  19. launchingthrees
    Nope. At least not according to fangraphs. His best 5 seasons 1. 2008 cardinals 92 fip- 2. 2012 cardinals 93 fip- 3. 2006 twins/reds *96 fip-(very generous to count this season as he was in the bullpen for the twins) 4. 2003 twins. 96 fip- 5 2007 reds/phil 98 fip- It depends on what you mean by mediocre. But he has been better since leaving the Twins based on your own metrics. It's obvious to anyone looking at the seasons that he didn't have identical production under Anderson and Duncan. I don't get what's in it for you to claim otherwise?
  20. launchingthrees
    His best 4 years(fip) are with a team other than the twins. This includes 2 seasons with Duncan. His average Fip is significantly lower away from the twins. You can say his results were identical but that doesn't make it true.
  21. launchingthrees
    How many players with Hick's production at 23 with 300+ PAs have become good over the past 20 years?
  22. launchingthrees
    It's a combination of sad and cute but in reality it means many 0 sum games are beatable. vs the general public.
  23. launchingthrees
    He was one of the worst players in baseball this year. His fielding was bad, and his hitting was historically bad. Players who have a season like he had don't go on to do well.
  24. launchingthrees
    Teams have access to fieldf/x. They don't need use imperfect publicly available fielding metrics.
  25. launchingthrees
    That dog don't hunt. These players weren't nearly as bad as Hicks at 23.
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