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Ncgo4

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Everything posted by Ncgo4

  1. Ncgo4
    Sano is big, REALLY big. Possibly the biggest OF ever in MLB. Putting him in right field where he will necessarily be required to run will take a huge toll on his over sized body. I expect him to get injured but at the minimum have it affect his hitting. Until he gets to DH or 1B, I expect him to be a shell of what he was at the plate last year. Thus may just be the dumbest move this year in baseball with the potential to be a disaster. If he blows out a knee look for him to show up next year weighing 320.
  2. Ncgo4
    The most neglected issue with Sano in RF is that he will get beaten up. He's 270 lbs and fast, a recipe for disaster. I saw him in spring training and he did not look in shape...at all. As much as I hate to say it, we should not be surprised when we see him injured, maybe soon. It's the stupidest decision on the part of the Twins, since they let Mauer dictate that he stay as a catcher after he started racking up injuries. We continued to see our best hitter get the crap beaten out of him and now, while still relatively young, he's a shell of what he was. That's on the Twins, Sano could be, too. I sure hope I'm wrong.
  3. Ncgo4
    When Kepler demonstrates he can hit in 3A he will force himself into the lineup. This just might be a lot quicker than the Twins expect. In addition to Kepler's hitting, Sano is quickly going to demonstrate just how much he doesn't belong in RF. As to Rosario, I too think he will be the breakout player of the year for our Twins. The twins are very likely going to be forced to make a decision between Mauer and Park.
  4. Ncgo4
    I think that next to Rosario, who I think is going to have a major breakout year, Buxton is going to shine. First, he's going to be a defensive wonder kind. Secondly, he's going to figure out major league hitting as he has done throughout the minors...struggle for a while, then look out! Because of his defense he's going to be a major + player. With Rosario's fielding and arm in left and Buck in center, the Twins will have 2/3rds of a real shut down outfield.
  5. Ncgo4
    I think I'm probably nuts, but I have a feeling I can't escape that Rosario, not Sano, Park, Kepler or Buxton is going to be this year's breakout story.
  6. Ncgo4
    Sano will become a great, great Twin's star. But most likely not this year. He will continue to be pitched around, almost never seeing a fastball. Instead he will be dealing with junk being thrown at him from every direction. He will walk a lot and strike out a lot but importantly, the slow junk being pitched to him will eventually turn him into a hitting machine. The last third of this season and next year, AL, lookout!
  7. Ncgo4
    Assuming Max continues to rake in 3-A the Twins will not have a choice but to move him up. Where to is the question. The starters at Target Field will determine that. Sano's fielding in right, Park's transition to big time pitching, Rosario's continued development and Mauer's improvement. First of all I think Sano will be a mess in right field. I Expect Rosario will continue a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for and his defense is sensational. The questions to me are Park and Mauer. If both play well the Twins may face the question of do we replace Plouffe's .250 bat with Kepler's .300 plus bat? An easy, yes. If Mauer continues as a .260 hitter with no power and modest fielding they may have to move Park to first, Kepler to right and Sano to DH. What a dream defensive outfield we would have then. The issue then, of course, is a $ bazillion guy on the bench. When is the last time our Twins have had a potential problem of too much talent.
  8. Ncgo4
    it's much to early to draw any conclusions, but just the right time to speculate. What might we have gathered so far from spring training? 1. B H Park so far at least can hit. Batting .364 and 3 dingers is very encouraging. 2. Sano is not suffering from any kind of sophomore jinx. 3. Buxton still hasn't completely solved ML pitching, but he clearly is penciled in to start. 4. Rosario is still hitting ok and really has an arm from left field. 5. Kepler can rake and is showing signs that his break out year wasn't a fluke. 6. Mauer is showing some good signs hitting over .300. 7. Vargas and Arcia have shown nothing. So far, at least, it looks like the line up we expected. Buck, Sano and Rosario in the outfield. Park at DH and Mauer at first. Kepler in Rochester on the verge of putting management in a bind and making someone very nervous. Interesting to see just how it continues as the roster shrinks and starters get more and more game time. Will be at Sunday's game and can't wait for April.
  9. Ncgo4
    Just how much am I looking forward to May 1 this tear? A whole heck of a lot. 1. Sano will have 25 or so games under his belt. Can he run down and catch a fly ball? We'll have a good idea by then. How have the pitchers adapted to his hitting? Does he still walk as much as he did last year? 2. Rosario will let us know if last year's production was real or not. Are his k's down at all? Is he possibly the long term answer in left. I hope so, I've always thought he was undervalued. 3. Buxton. Is he at Target Field or Rochester? Is he hitting Sano's weight? Is he still healthy, or has he tried again to make the highlight reel with a 2nd inning dive play in a mostly meaningless situation? I expect he starts in the bigs and is a very pleasant surprise. 4. Park??! This is my biggest question mark. I have no doubt he will be struggling. But how much? Is he striking out at a rate that would shame A B Walker? Or is he hitting home runs and struggling a little? 5. Kepler is in Rochester now proving last year was real...or not. 6. Have Mauer and Plouffe given any reason to think that there are better uses for their 2 spots in the lineup? These 7 will put huge pressure on Twin's management to adjust the lineup. I can't wait to see how it all unfolds. Go Twins!
  10. Ncgo4
    Why does everyone question Rosario's stat line, based largely on too many k's and not enough walks? At the same time everyone accepts Sano's stats as a true indication of where he will be despite a large number of K's and a bizarre high number of walks. My guess is that it is almost equally likely that Sano's rate of walks and Rosario's rate of K's will both decline. This could be a real issue for a sophomore jinx for Sano. I personally think each will have decent year and look forward to watching it unfold.
  11. Ncgo4
    The entire situation around Sano is a potential disaster. First, there is no question he had a real exceptional half year in the majors, supported in large part by an uncany number of walks. But the talk about him, in my opinion has gotten out of hand. It's the responsibility of the Twins to manage these expectations and I haven't seen them do much of it. Secondly, they send him home to the Dominican Republic to play ball and get into better shape. He leaves at 270 or something close to it and a few weeks later the pull him back State side because he only lost lost 5 tbs. 5 pounds...are you kidding me? Finally, apparently after looking, mouths agape, at the scale they decide that he will not play 3rd base AT ALL. In the mean time Miguel has apparently done nothing to prepare himself for the outfield. Finally, they pay about $25 million for a DH, from Korea. This either cuts Sano off of any chance to return to the role he was successful at last year or they pi**ed away $25 million. I hope as much as anyone, that Sano turns into the Bullet Bill Bruton version of a right fielder and I hope he hits .300 and hits 40 dingers. But this whole thing seems like a major lack of management by the Twins.
  12. Ncgo4
    Is it just me or is this the most critical Spring Training in memory for our Twins? I don't ever remember as many questions about starting positions and roster spots ever. In fact I don't remember any ST when we had 20% as many questions. The potential new players include: Byung Ho Park, A B Walker, Max Kepler, Ken Vargas, Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Trevor Maye, Alex Meyer and Taylor Rogers. There are others. Some of these are currently on the roster in a kind of limbo status and some are long shots to be on the team. All of them have someone(s) in front of them on the roster. Any of them could have a spring training or early minor league season that might make them a compelling call up to the parent. This means that the possibility exists that the Twins may have to decide if they need to eat some large contracts to improve the team. In addition there are current front line players that may not perform in their current positions at levels considered adequate. This could include Mauer, Escobar, Rosario, Dozier and several pitchers. A crazy number of questions and a GM that hasn't been real quick to pull the trigger. The most interesting watch, maybe ever. Can hardly wait until I get down to Ft. Myers in March.
  13. Ncgo4
    The key to all of this is Mauer. If Joe is a bust in spring training and through the first few weeks of the season and if Kepler, Buxton, Park, Sano and Rosario look they must be in the lineup it puts Molly in a position where he has to make real decisions. If Kepler, for example just DEMANDS a spot in the Line up then there just might be no spot for a very marginal fielding, marginal average and no power 1st baseman. I've said it before, but I really believe Mauer's salary is like the water or heating bill. It's a utility, ust something you have to pay. The precious commodity isn't his salary, it's his spot in the lineup. Any 3 of Park, Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler, if really performing could easily combine to make him an in-lineup liability. All 5 of them really performing and Plouffe could join Mauer on that list. Realistically, however, good performances by 3 of the 5 would be terrific. 4 or 5 would be Christmas.
  14. Ncgo4
    The twins are an unusual team this year. We have good players at every field position except catching. We don't have a "STAR" at any. This includes Sano, who very well may become a star but isn't after his limited MLB experience. In every other single position we have good but only average or slightly above average players. If any one of them takes a step back they are a liability. The most likely to do this? Rosario, Dozier and Escobar, in my opinion. If any one of them breaks further out they become a "Star". Likely to do so, Sano, Mauer and Escobar. Escobar is on both lists because his projection last year was much less than where he ended. If he demonstrates that last year is where he really is then he is clearly one of the leading shortstops in the American League. If he steps back, he's a liability. We also don't need one of these to fall on their face to create an opening. If Buxton or Max really steps up there is no reason not to replace an average player with someone that is proving to be a Star. Of course, this is the Twins we're talking about.
  15. Ncgo4
    I like your analysis here. One thing in the back of my mind is what if there's another breakout or breakdown? For example, what if Max K hits .375 in spring training and then starts the first 3 weeks in Rochester the same way? If Sano is kind of lost in right field and Plouffe is hitting poorly at third do they make a move with all three? How soon? Also what if Walker is on on fire in Rochester (a HR every 10-12 AB and plenty of RBI's) and has his strike out number down a bunch? How long before the Twins make a move with him? The Twins are in an unusual situation. They have adequate players in the lineup. They also have young guys in the minors that really could break out this year. Break out well beyond "adequate". Both in the field and on the mound. This would be the situation that I fear the Twins might not react to very well.
  16. Ncgo4
    I guess we know why we can love and hate our Twins GM at the same time, eh? We can express our opinions but he has to act on his.
  17. Ncgo4
    I said Santana, sorry, I meant Escobar.
  18. Ncgo4
    I don't have a lot of understanding about this heredity stuff we hear about with Nick Gordon. I understand he should have had a better understanding of the fundamentals, from sitting next to his father watching the game. But a stopwatch and statistics should quickly put an end to the, "He's out of She Bang by Man-of-War" kinds of talk. Certainly when he's 14 years old it should absolutely dictate that scouts should be watching him. But after 2 years in professional ball, does someone really believe he has a better than average chance than other 20 year olds of exceeding his Sabermetrics indications? I think his potential and upside is still pretty terrific, but the required reference to his family tree seems a little silly by now. I certainly hope he isn't promoted above prospects with better performance because of his father and brother and I'm not sure that that's true.
  19. Ncgo4
    I'm not going to include a complete list but I think we're going to have 3 players that will have very big moves up the chart this year. 1. Lewis Thorpe. A healthy year and he could just light things up. An Australian to room with our German. 2. Kohl Stewart. I expect him to forget about being a 17 option pitcher (I'm surprised he hasn't experimented with a grease ball, the Blooper and a knuckler, or has he) and concentrate in his fastball and slider and begin to really ratchet up the K's. If so he could be a big happy face. 3. Engelb Vielma. I think that by the end of the year we will have forgotten about Nick Gordon, except to wonder where we'll move him, and all of us will be talking about this shortstop. But then again I thought they should have saved a little of Berrios' innings for a late season call-up so what do I know?
  20. Ncgo4
    Holy crap! 7, 8 & 9 are shortstops!?! I sure hope our Mr. Thrylos is correct about this. A ML quality shortstop can be a very good bargaining chip in a trade. This could put the Twins in a real good position in a few years. It's even more exciting when considering the season that Santana had last year. Here's hoping that Santana has a very good follow up year and that last year doesn't prove to be a Kurt Suzuki-like redux.
  21. Ncgo4
    Sano's winter ball was cut short, per reports shared here. Has anyone seen or heard anything? Do we know why yet? Has anyone seen him and does it look like he's in better shape? Curios minds want to know.
  22. Ncgo4
    I noticed him in spring training during infield workouts. Thought he might be someone's kid when he walked on the field. There is no way he was 160 lbs. I would have guessed 130, but watching him in the midst of a whole bunch of professional players probably shrunk him a bunch. It also didn't take long to realize he was a human vacuum cleaner in the infield. You said he's working in his strength this off season. If he could put on 10 lbs of muscle he could really be even more interesting. Looking at his SB numbers he's certainly got speed and base sense. He also had more BB's than anyone else at his average or above at his level. If he demonstrates that the last half of the season is now how he can hit, he could really rocket up the prospect list. Engelb will be one of the 2 or 3 people I will look up first every morning this upcoming season. Thanks so much got the post.
  23. Ncgo4
    There has been a lot of talk about Sano's weight. He's gigantic and it could hurt him long term. There's been no discussion about our Mr. Buxton. Before I begin, a little background. One of my granddaughters was an International Elite gymnast. Considered very likely for the Olympic team. Her only issue was a series of nagging injuries. I spoke to her coach about it (Russian trained) and he told me that their sports institute had determined that athletes with too low a body fat were way more susceptible to serious injuries, particularly joint areas like ankles, wrists, etc. I did some research at the time, this was several years ago, and found a lot of supporting evidence. That brings me to Buxton. When I saw him last year at spring training, I was shocked at his appearance. At that time he had no body fat. He looked like his body fat might have been very, very low single digits. My wife commented to me, he looks leaner than, (our granddaughter). He did not look healthy. Body builders have more body fat than he does. Incidentally, my grand daughter was offered scholarships by dozens of major colleges, she accepted one and competed for a half season before a series of injuries ended her career. I am not predicting this for Buxton, but I certainly won't be surprised if he proves susceptible to frequent injury. Sure hope I'm just being paranoid about this.
  24. Ncgo4
    I would be shocked if the Twins would even consider a renegotiation until his weight is in order and remains so for a pt least a full year.
  25. Ncgo4
    Do Rosario, Mauer & Buxton hit for average? Do Sano & Park hit for power? Does Kepler hit for a crazy average? Does Walker light it up for power? Does anyone behind the plate hit for anything? Pretty much what makes this spring so interesting. The twins have to demonstrate which way they will go. Most interesting of all. If the hitters or power guys really rule the spring will Ryan & Molitar go that way, or will they sit on what they have? Example if Buxton and Kepler hit .385 and steal bases in spring, do the twins send them to AAA? Likewise, if Mauer hits .085 and Walker hits 8 dingers...the combinations are endless and the probability to make it very tough for Twins Mgmt. is almost certain. Maybe even as much with the pitching staff.
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