big dog

...and I agree with Ashbury- these things are long way from becoming publicly-traded securities. It is probably going to be a very thin market, where you may be told you are buying "shares", but markets are going to be thin and easily exploited by insider market-makers.

These are an example of derivative securities; the payout of the "shares" is derived directly from the earnings of the player, which is a very risk stream of future cash flows. Bonds pay a coupon rate that is specified, but risky; these have a payment that is both risky and unspecified, but tied to a particular variable (player earnings). Derivatives are demonized in the press, but there are lots of things that are well-accepted derivatives, like stock options. As mentioned above, we don't know the formula for how much of the earnings are actually paid out to investors, so we can't do much modeling on the possible valuation. Perhaps the best analogy for this are the so-called "Bowie bonds". David Bowie sold bonds which paid out over time based on the sales of his previous albums rather than at a specific coupon rate. Another somewhat similar instrument would be bonds that have an interest rate that fluctuates with oil prices. Investors have been very interested in these assets, and baseball player contracts would also be at least potentially interesting to certain investor profiles. I'm not sure I buy the idea that it makes a player less likely to sign an early extension, but it's possible. Dozier's contract that bought out his late arb years was 4 years, $20 million. Would a $3-4 million up-front payment in exchange for 10% of all future earnings have persuaded him to skip the deal and hit free agency earlier? As others have also mentioned above, there's still a ton of risk in playing MLB. If you sign the deal early, 10% of what you lose with potential arb raises is money you don't get anyway. It will also be interesting to see which players want to do this. Players who are marginal probably have the most interest in doing it, but they would also see the least investor interest. At least they would see the lowest prices from investors. Maybe the best marketing strategy would be to try and sell these shares to people who pay hundreds of dollars a year to be in fantasy baseball leagues. In my opinion, this isn't gambling any more than any type of equity-based investing. It's just a different kind of asset, with much less complex possible cash flows but much higher specific, uninsurable risk. You could diversify by getting shares in more players, but that only diversifies some of the risk. Declining interest in baseball or anything else that slows growth in the salary pools would hit at least most players.

Kris Kristofferson and I believe that freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose. Living in society has obligations that reduce your freedom, for various purposes.

ARCIA GO BOOM!!! I know it's late but I love when I get to say that.

Agreed- it was a great throw, but my take was that Valencia would have been safe if he'd gone straight to the plate. Worst case, I think umps would have called him safe for McCann "blocking" the plate. Still, a great throw, no question. I note that Danny has an OPS+ of 103, and 4 errors at third base in 14 games. I thought everyone but the A's had decided 3B was not his position.

I think your handle should be Gran Bark Reserva, like the bottle.

I was surprised to see that Trout has only stolen 27 bases COMBINED in the last two years. I wonder if that's based primarily on having Pujols hitting behind him? I could live with 15 HR, 60 SB, and Gold Glove defense in center. Not a problem.

He's looked good in the field as well. He turned a really sweet DP yesterday- good pickup, perfect throw, hustled back to the bag and was in good position for the return throw.

Did anyone see the throw home that he made early in the game today? He was way too deep to have any shot, and he missed getting a relatively fast runner at the plate by, I don't know, an inch or two. An incredible throw. He's not letting his batting troubles affect him in the field. I also think he's looking better at the plate, though of course with where he started from there was a lot of room to move up. Up to me, I let him play through. At least for a couple more weeks.

Hey, 3 runs won't win this game! ...and hopefully 4 runs won't be enough either...

Sano played that ball like a bad third baseman. He didn't move to get in front of the ball, he just tried to swipe it from the side.

Just referring to his rep. I haven't seen him play enough to have an opinion either way.

OK, I'm going to be the worst jinx in recent memory here, but I think Nunez has not only hit well in the recent games, he's also made some nice fielding plays. I will now wait for a throw to Dan Gladden.

Yeah, this definitely has a 12-9 kind of feel to it.

I thought this was interesting- thanks. I learned things. This sentence certainly conflicted with the tone of the rest of it, though: "Again, this isn’t a really strong relationship, but you can kind of see it." Hmmm...it is always tempting to use our eyes to do statistics when we don't get a strong enough result from the calculator.

MLB.com has started awarding teams honors for "Bullpen of the Week", based on a formula for effectiveness. The Twins won the award this week, ending yesterday with a run of 14 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. No runs scored against the bullpen since last Monday. Nice job, guys. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/172982402/twins-bullpen-honored-after-shutout-streak

Goalies get credited with losses, too, even if they stop 10 breakaways and lose 1-0. If goalies play like crap, the team tends to lose rather than win, though I suppose you could dig and find a couple exceptions. Closers don't do basically the same job as other relievers. Just about every failed closer is someone who was a good reliever during other parts of the game. Except Eck and Smoltz, I guess.

As the father of a soccer goalie, all I can say is AMEN! Forget the offenders who missed the wide-open shot, forget the defender who pulled someone down in the box- it's the goalie who doesn't save the penalty shot who blew the game.

I think you meant to say "a good closet in a bad house", right?

http://img.picturequotes.com/2/323/322639/never-give-up-never-surrender-quote-1.jpg

Go Twins! There. I just wanted to post something positive. Someone had to do it. Enjoy the thread, everyone.

Nice job Tommy!

Kennedy is really getting movement on his pitches tonight. Hopefully it moves into a bat a few times.

Time for the pitcher's best friend.

and thereby also, and importantly, within stumbling/crawling distance.