Mr. Brooks

I'm not quite sure what we are supposed to be "digesting"? Wins are a team stat, and not something that a pitcher has much control over.

Week 7 picks: Going to stick with the $20 bets again, since I didn't do so hot last week. CHI to WIN @ WSH: The Bears have looked better than I thought coming into the season. The Redskins are really struggling right now. I would never have thought I'd like Cutler better than RGIII, and while I still would take RGIII long term, Cutler is the better QB today. $20 to win $16.66 CHI to COVER -1.5 @ WSH: See above. $20 to win $18.18 CHI/WSH OVER 49pts: This number just feels really low to me. No real insight on why, it's a pure gut bet. $20 to win $18.18 STL to COVER +7 @ CAR: The Panthers are not as good as they looked last week against the Vikes. They were playing an awful team. Don't forget they couldn't move the ball against Arizona in week 5, and I like The D and the coaching in STL. $20 to win $20. ATL to COVER -6.5 vs. TB: Yeah, Matt Ryan has nobody to throw the ball to right now, but I think the Buccs are going to quit on that clown of a coach they have. $20 to win $17.40. ATL/TB UNDER 43.5 pts: No WR's for Ryan, and the Buccs have Mike Glennon at QB. I see a score of something like 21-10 in this one. $20 to win $18.18. NYJ to COVER +4.5 vs. NE: I was about to take this even at +3.5. So, when it suddenly changed to +4.5, I couldn't hit submit fast enough. Pats win, but by 3 or less. $20 to win $18.18. NYJ/NE UNDER 44pts: The return of Gronk could screw up both these bets, but I think both defenses are good enough to hold the other offense to 20 or less. $20 to win $18.18. SF to COVER -3.5 @ TEN: Am I missing something here? Ok sure, the game is in Tennessee, but the 49ers are a vastly superior team, and the Titans played Seattle last week. Seattle is so physical, they leave their opponent beaten and bruised for a couple weeks after. No brainer here. $20 to win $16.66. SF/TEN UNDER 42pts: While the Titans are not good, and will lose by plenty, they do have a very good D, as does SF. $20 to win $18.18. PIT to COVER -1.5 vs. BALT: This is a wing and a prayer. I have no idea, LOL. The Steelers are bad. In fact, so bad that they lost to the Vikings, on a neutral site. And the Ravens are the defending SB Champs, yet I'm picking PIT. Go figure. $20 to win $18.18. PIT/BALT UNDER 41 pts: I don't trust either offense. Come to think of it, I don't trust either defense neither. Oh well. $20 to win $18.18. KC to COVER -7 vs. HOU: Everyone is calling KC lucky and a fluke. Hmmm, to each his own I guess. I'll keep making money off their expense, I guess. KC is good folks. $20 to win $19.04 IND to COVER +6.5 vs DEN: Denver has to lose eventually. Dallas at home should have been the team, I'm putting my money on Andrew Luck to not choke like a Romo. $20 to win $19.04. IND to WIN vs. DEN: See above. $20 to win $45.00 DAL to COVER +3 @ PHI: This game could go either way, and will be a fun one, I think. I kinda hate my pick here, as Nick Foles is better than I was giving him credit, but I think Dallas scores last in a big time shootout. $20 to win $16.66. DAL to WIN @ PHI: See above. $20 to win $24.00. DAL/PHI, OVER 56.5 pts: Shootout folks, many points scored in this one. First to 40 wins. $20 to win $18.18. CIN to COVER +3 @ DET: I like Cinnci's D more than I like Detroit's O. $20 to win $18.18. JAX to COVER +7.5 vs. SD: It's really hard to go 0-16. I have a suspicion this is as good of a game as any to get that first win. $20 to win $18.18 GB to COVER -9.5 vs. CLE: I almost never take double digit favorites. Luckily GB is not QUITE a double digit favorite. $20 to win $19.04 MIA to COVER -6 vs. BUF: I just don't like Buffalo. The city or the team. Sorry. $20 to win $18.18. NYG to COVER -3.5 vs. MIN: Sorry folks, the Vikes really ARE that bad. Vikings get blown out and Frazier is out of work on Tuesday. $20 to win $18.18. Underdog Parlay: CIN over DET, IND over DEN, JAX over SD, DAL over PHI, STL over CAR. All teams to WIN. $20 to win $4544.10 6pt teaser: WSH +7.5 vs. CHI, DEN -0.5 @ IND, ATL -0.5 vs. TB, SD -1.5 @ JAX, CAR -1 vs. STL, BALT +7.5 @ PIT, KC -1 vs. HOU. I'm hedging my bets on most of these, I realize. $20 to win $200. Total: $250 to win $5192.42. Wish me luck!

So last week I squeaked out a profit by the skin of my teeth. I won $424.90, for a mere $4.90 profit. My running total is now at +$93.88. This weeks bets to follow.

Did not get a bet in on the Thursday game. Here are my picks for this week. Running Total so far: +$88.98. I'm going to stick with similar bet sizes for one more week. If I do well again, I will probably bump them up next week. GB to COVER -3 @ BALT. $20 to win $20. I know Matthews is out, it's in Baltimore, and I'm in the minority in that I still think the Ravens are a very good team. However, all that said, I still like the Packers to win. The line is tricky, because I see a close game, but I think they cover. DET to cover -3 @ CLE. $20 to win $20. I got burned by Detroit last week, and Megatron will again be a game time decision. And Cleveland is better than anyone thought they would be, and it's in Cleveland. But, Hoyer is out for the year, which means they are putting the ball back in Brandon Weeden's hands. That is all I need to know to take this line. STL to cover +8 @ HOU. $20 to win $18.18. The Rams are not a great team, but they are better than most give them credit for. I think Jeff Fisher does a solid job with mediocre talent, and I don't think his teams will get blown out very often, especially against a Houston team that is a bit of a mess right now. KC to cover -8 vs. OAK. $20 to win $18.18. This was the first pick I really struggled with. 8 is a big number to cover, especially for a team that, though good, is not without holes. I went back and forth, but in the end the deciding factor was the better team AND at home. OAK @ KC, UNDER 41 pts. $20 to win $18.18 KC has a legit defense, McFadden is likely out, and the Chiefs have ran a pretty conservative offense, one that will likely run the ball alot once they get a lead. I like the under here. JAX to cover +27 @ DEN. $20 to win $18.18. LOL, 27 point spread in the NFL? Wow. Denver is good enough, and Jacksonville is bad enough, that the Broncos could win this game by 40 points. But I'm still never going to pass up a 27 point dog in the NFL. TEN to cover +13.5 @ SEA. $20 to win $18.18. Yeah, I like Seattle as much as the next guy, and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is as awful as NFL QB's come, but I think Tennessee's D is solid enough to keep them within 2 TD's. TEN @ SEA, UNDER 41 pts. $20 to win $18.18. Both teams have good defenses, Lynch is banged up, Russell Wilson has looked just "okay", and Seattle should get a comfortable lead early and run a bunch of clock, so I really like the under here. ARI to cover +10.5 @ SF. $20 to win $18.18. I'm contradicting myself a bit here after my statements last week on just how talented I think SF is, but I also made it clear I don't think NFL teams should be double digit favorites. I just don't think the talent gap is very wide at all in the NFL. ARI @ SF UNDER 41 points. $20 to win $18.18. I think they way these two teams match up calls for a pretty low scoring game. The Cards have a shut down corner, and SF doesn't have a lot of weapons in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Cards have a terrible QB, and a capable enough running game. I see a game with huge chunks of clock being chewed up between scores. DAL to cover -6 vs. WSH. $20 to win $18.18. Wait, let me see if I have this right. Dallas just drove the field at will against the best team in the NFL, and nearly won, right? This game is in Dallas, right? I've been watching the same awful Redskins team as everyone in Vegas has, right? Dallas should be favored by 7.5 points, IMO, but I won't complain, I'll gladly take this line. (Even though I pick WSH to win later, hah!) IND to cover -2.5 @ SD. $20 to win $18.18. Another line that blows my mind. I'll keep saying the following 2 statements until the fat cats in Vegas hear me: 1) The Chargers are AWFUL! 2) Andrew Luck is not human. He was obviously built in a lab somewhere with different parts taken from all the greatest QB's to ever play the game. Easy bet here folks. IND @ SD, OVER 51 points. $20 to win $18.18. I usually shy away from taking the over, especially when its more than 50 points. But, like I said last week, the Chargers pass D would not stop a girls middle school QB, let alone Andrew Luck. Add to the that the one thing the Chargers actually can capably do is chuck the ball downfield, and will likely play all day from behind, and this seems like a solid over. CAR to cover +2.5 @ MIN. $20 to win $19.04. Sorry folks, I'd love to bet on the Vikings, but I have to think with my wallet and not my heart here. This is not a good matchup for the Vikings. The Panthers have a good run defense, though not great, and I think AP can run against them, but just not enough to make up for the elite pass D that Carolina has. Add to it, that IMO, the 2 things the Vikings D under Frazier/Williams struggles most against are good pass catching TE's, and mobile QB's, and I just don't like our chances, even at home. CAR to WIN @ MIN. $20 to win $22. If I'm going to pick CAR to cover 2.5 pts, then I probably think they'll win too, so I might as well take both bets. CIN to cover -6 @ BUF. $20 to win $18.18. If Thad Lewis (who?) keeps BUF within a TD of CIN, then watch for falling meteors, because that could be a sign of the apocalypse. NYJ to cover -1 vs. PIT. $20 to win $18.18. This is what I love about the NFL. I thought coming into the year that the Jets could realistically go 0-16. Now I think they are a fringe playoff team. I thought the Steelers were a fringe playoff team, now I think they could realistically go 0-16. Go figure. PHI to cover -2.5 @ TB. $20 to win $16.66. This was the toughest pick for me. I know Nick Foles looked good last week, and I'm on record saying I think Greg Schiano (sp?) is a clown, but I'm not buying Nick Foles quite yet (though I am buying that Schiano is still a clown). That said, I'm buying Mike Glennon even less than I'm buying Nick Foles, so that is what we are left with after all that rambling. NO to WIN @ NE. $20 to win $20. As I said last week, it literally pains me to bet against Tom Brady. But, Gronk is still out, Aaron Hernandez is still in jail, and the Pats still have no legit NFL running backs. The Pats have a football genius on the sideline, but so do the Saints, so I can't even give that edge to the Pats. I'll probably regret this pick, because I think the Pats will be motivated, and pissed off, and I don't think a Belicheck team will ever lay down and quit, but I'm just not sure they have the talent right now for all that to matter. Underdog Parlay: Well, I came within 1 Tony Romo choke dog moment from cashing a lotto ticket last week, lets see if I can come close again. This week I found 5 games to parlay. TB to WIN vs PHI (yeah, I know I said what I said about the stuff earlier, but hey, there are not a lot of U/D's that I truly like this week), CLE to WIN vs. DET, CAR to WIN @ MIN, STL to WIN @ HOU, WSH to WIN @ DAL. $20 to win $2372.04. 6 point teaser. I'm following the same formula as last week, there are 5 applicable games this week. SD to cover +8.5 vs IND, TB to cover +8.5 vs PHI, CAR to cover +8.5 @ MIN, KC to cover -2 vs OAK, HOU to cover -2 vs STL. $20 to win $90. This week I am betting $420 to win $2816.08 ($444.04 (that is a lot of 4's!) if you exclude my lotto ticket). Wish me luck, will post results later!

And this is a bad thing?

You will not find a better resort experience than Voyagaire Houseboats on Crane Lake. The only downside is that it is a 4.5 to 5 hour drive from Target Field.

Yep, with the Jets winning I end the week with an $88.98 profit. Will post my Thursday night bet tonight or tomorrow.

Unspent money is NOT carried over by the Twins. They are on record saying that, it is not opinion or interpretation, it is fact.

The article lays out some good thoughts on why they might trade him. 1) He seems intent on hitting FA, and the Reds don't feel they will have the money to sign him at that point, so they would rather get talent back than let him walk. 2) The Reds already have 4 comparable or better SP's as Bailey, and that number becomes 5 if they move Chapman into the rotation, so he is expendable.

Josh Freeman is legit and I'm pretty amped that we got him. Don't let the last 10 or so games fool you, it's not entirely his fault. Greg Schiano (sp?) is a complete clown, and that team runs almost an exclusively vertical passing game, so of course his comp% is going to be low. We just found our franchise QB for the next 7 or 8 years.

I would think (hope) this club learned that anything you do in ST should not be a factor towards "earning" a job. The atmosphere and quality of opponent are so entirely different than actual MLB regular season games, (in addition to the tiny SS) that literally 0% stock should be placed in ST performance. ST is a time to work on pitches, face some live pitching, work on your SB jumps, work on pick off moves, practice turning DP's and hitting cut off men, etc.

Yeah, there are a handful of guys at any given time, out of ~200 active MLB relief pitchers that actually make a significant impact on the season. I guess I should have noted that disclaimer in my post.

They didn't "take advantage" because they don't have the talent. I'm not sure where this mentality comes from (actually, yes I am, Gardy and TR) that inferior players just need to "try harder", "battle their tails off", and/or "get after it", and they will suddenly play better than they are capable of. Simply throwing more "filler" at the problem will result in the exact same results.

Not really, the league minimum is roughly 500k. Even if they bring back all their ARB eligible guys, then fill out the rest with league minimum guys, that only brings them up to $57 or $58 million.

That is not exactly true, verbal contracts can be binding, they are just obviously tougher to prove.

Umm, it's a business. The goal is to make a profit. It's not a non profit organization. That is where the rest of the money goes, and rightly so.

Man, I was a Tono Romo pick from winning 2 grand!! I really thought the Cowboys were going to pull that one out, too. Well, lets take a look at the results so far with just tonights game remaining. PHI/NYG: I called this one right, and I'm really still curious what the fat cats in Vegas were thinking betting NY up to a favorite. NO/CHI: This one both helped, and hurt me. I won my straight bet, with NO covering. But, unfortunately they covered by 1 point to many, and cost me my 6 point teaser, as I had the other 3 games right. ARI/CAR: I had this one right on both fronts, with the Cardinals winning easily at home. DAL/DEN: Ugh! Mixed bag here. Dallas covered, so I won that bet, but I lost my smaller bet picking DAL to win, and, as I said above, this game alone cost me 2 grand!! DET/GB: This loss is the fault of my own ignorance. I should have checked the injury reports more closely. I never expected Megatron to miss the game, and would not have taken DET without him, they are a totally different team when he's not on the field. BALT/MIA: This one came down to the wire, but luckily the Dolphins rookie kicker missed a long FG which would have forced OT. CIN/NE: I'm glad I stuck to my guns and went with my head here instead of my heart. I love Brady, but he's got no weapons right now. SEA/IND: I lost this one, but it was a good game. Andrew Luck is going to be the best QB in the NFL in a few years. KC/TEN: Tennessee gave me a scare for a while, but in the end the better team pulled away. JAX/STL: It's tough to cover 11 points, no matter how bad your opponent is, so even though I lost this one, I don't regret my pick. OAK/SD: I won two bets here, with Oakland winning easily. Another spread where I really can't understand what Vegas was thinking, the Chargers are not a good team. SF/HOU: I figured it was only a matter of time before this uber talented 49ers team started to play like they are capable of. Easy cover here. Lotto ticket: I lost, but wow was it close. If Tony Romo didn't suddenly remember that he's Tony Romo in the last 2 minutes, I'd be celebrating right now. 6 pt. teaser: I had 3 of the 4 right, but sorry Meatloaf, that is not good enough. The Bears are even worse than I thought they are, and that is what burned me here. With 1 game (and 2 bets) remaining, I've already won back my $315, and pocketed a tidy $48.98 profit. It's already been a good week, but lets go Jets and make it a great week!

Francisco Rodriguez.

His arm was fine this year. Show me one single link to where the team or himself claim anything other than his arm being recovered to start the season? I always find it comically convenient when everyone says coming into a season that a player is coming off minor surgery, and is completely healthy and ready to go, but then when they pitch bad, they say, "oh yeah, I guess he was still hurt!" He refuses to get into shape, even though he admits it hampers his pitching results. In his own words he just throws his arms up and says, "oh well, nothing I can do about it". Regarding his ERA in Philadelphia, it was completely unsustainable. MLB hitters are simply too good, ESPECIALLY in the AL, to strike out looking that often (not counting Twins hitters). They were bound to make the adjustment, and they did. He's basically Nick Blackburn. If he is completely on top of his game, and gets a little luck, he has a CHANCE to be a #5 on a mediocre team. Of course, this is just my opinion, but it was also my opinion coming into this year, so it's not hindsight, and its an opinion that I got ripped to shreds for. It looks like I'll get ripped to shreds again for continuing to have that opinion, so I guess we'll just have to see his 2014 results to see if I made another "lucky guess".

The thing is, Kill would have to step down. They simply cannot realistically fire Jerry Kill at this point, even if it is about results. All one needs to do to understand why is read the comments below either of Souhan's columns regarding Kill's condition. Any mention of it, no matter how legit, is met with an angry mob mentality. I've even heard national announcers say that Souhan (they didn't name him, but obviously were talking about him) is a disgusting person, living in the middle ages.

Arcia was a massive success story this year, given his age. I don't think people realize how incredibly rare it is for 22 year old hitters to hold their own in their debut season. I guess Trout and Harper and Machado have spoiled people to think that prospects should immediately be elite level players.

Albers became "somewhat less effective"? That is a generous choice of words. Try 58 hits and 34 runs over 42.2 innings after those first 2 starts. Then again, according to Tim Laudner, only a "knucklehead" would think that he was due for a regression after those first 2 starts, so maybe he just got unlucky.

Alex Wimmers? Yeah, his 4.31 ERA and 77 minor league innings over 4 seasons scream "legit prospect". I'd say ANYTHING the Twins ever get from Wimmers at the ML level would have to be considered a pleasant surprise. Rosario is a 2B prospect, not a pitching prospect. Gonsalves looked good over a small sample size, but he's not even a top 100 prospect, he doesn't even come close to having a 3:1 shot at this point, he's more like a 10:1 shot, if that. That leaves us Meyer, May , Gibson, Stewart and Berrios that realistically fall into the 30% territory. Most likely we'll get 1 legit starter from that bunch, if we get 2 it will be a wild success. The 3 or 4 like you say would be 75% or 100%, which would be pretty unprecedented.

If Worley pans out to even be a #5 it will be a bonus, IMO. I don't see him ever becoming more than a AAAA pitcher.

Trade Plouffe for what? Nobody is trading for Plouffe right now unless it's for cash, a la Jamey Carroll. Even if you could get some type of D prospect (a la Morneau), I'd still wait. Plouffe is a streaky hitter. I'd hope he starts hot next year, then MAYBE you can get something decent for him when Sano is ready.