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SaberNerd

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Everything posted by SaberNerd

  1. SaberNerd
    Prielipp's slider looks to still be an elite pitch after the injury. Max spin was 3178RPM, avg 3027 at 85.9MPH. That velo/spinrate combination would be close to top 10 in the majors. While Morris is definitely impressing, I don't have him in the Zebby/Festa tier. He has a 24K% at AA vs 30% for Zebby, which gives me concerns that the stuff won't play in the majors. I also just don't buy his 1.19 ERA, with him having the lowest BABIP and HR/FB rates that he has had at any level of his pro career. He looks more like a mid-high 2 ERA pitcher at AA.
  2. SaberNerd
    The upside case for him is a better defensive Kyle Farmer. He has significant L/R splits: at CR his OPS was .992 vs .823, at both levels he was 25BB/22K vs 36BB/82K, and while he hasn't had good SLG this year he is 12BB/13K compared to 30BB/65K. Ability to play a passable SS would significantly help with flexibility.
  3. SaberNerd
    Really nothing at this point. His fastball has been awful against major league hitters even though he can throw it mid 90s. It has hard hit rates >50% and a Whiff% around 10%. They will try to keep him around because if they can fix the fastball to be average, because if they can he could be a solid reliever.
  4. SaberNerd
    I think people are too low on him, but #2 is going too far in the other direction. Baseball America has him ranked #48, and if he settles the questions on his defense he could be a top 25 prospect.
  5. SaberNerd
    I'm not opposed to this trade in theory but Bernardino is already 32 and the only thing he has done above average is HR prevention in 85 innings, which is nowhere near enough for me to buy that he will continue it. A younger reliever who shows more of an ability to strike guys out and limit walks with 3+ years of control would tempt me.
  6. SaberNerd
    I think Carpenter will get over 150K and dip into the bonus pool. Only 19, would be heading to East Carolina next year. Common strategy to do it in the 11th round so that if don't lose bonus pool $ if they don't sign.
  7. SaberNerd
    I think Hill is pretty spendy (no info, but guessing around 2.5M). I've heard a couple guys ranked around where he was that had bigger numbers, and if he signs for significantly less than that I am wondering why he fell to 69.
  8. SaberNerd
    Great to hear and congrats for your friend. I know there is a lot of talk about saving money, but he is a guy that the Twins like and think they can save money, not just the cheapest guy they can get. Plenty of underslot guys turn into really good MLB players.
  9. SaberNerd
    Jaime Ferrer. Unranked on MLB, 360 on BA. 22HR .317/.418/665 line. 25BB/41K. Not saying the last 2 picks were bad, but I'm guessing Hill was spendy and we are saving money.
  10. SaberNerd
    Similar to DeBarge and Keaschall last year, Diaw is only 20. They seem to like young college hitters.
  11. SaberNerd
    Last year Travis Sykora wasn't picked Day 1, and then was picked 1st on Day 2 and signed for 2.6M. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a team meet his demand but are just waiting for Round 3 to do it.
  12. SaberNerd
    I didn't want him at 21, so my gut reaction is to not like it even though he's great value at 60.
  13. SaberNerd
    Soto had 19 whiffs on the day, 9 with the changeup. He gets great results when he can locate his stuff.
  14. SaberNerd
    Keaschall's rise this season rivals Zebby's. There is probably a bit more power left, and he will likely need a good chunk of time to be ready defensively, but he looks like he will be a really good player when he's ready and could probably hold his own offensively right now. Right now, he's probably the teams 4th or 5th best prospect, with him vs Zebby being personal preference. Baseball America had him ranked 48th overall in their most recent ranking.
  15. SaberNerd
    One of the things with underslotting guys is that often the team actually thinks that player is BPA (or essentially equivalent), but that player is expected to go lower. If the Twins don't get one of the top college bats they could (King/Smith/Benge/Waldschmidt) I would expect their pick to be slightly underslot simply due to the back half of the first round being a mess and players willing to take a deal to make sure they don't fall. For buying a player down, it would be really hard to try to buy down a College Jr hitter, since they don't have a ton of leverage to go back to school to be drafted as a Sr.
  16. SaberNerd
    For young players who are athletic enough to potentially play SS/CF, or for guys who have the potential to be great hitters, moving to C isn't a good move since you aren't going to be playing every day.
  17. SaberNerd
    Promising rehab for Stewart. Velo down 2mph which isn't concerning for first rehab game, 6 whiffs in 8 swings. Getting him back will be a massive boost for the pen
  18. SaberNerd
    Gausman scares me. You are getting his age 34-35 seasons after this year, his velo is down 0.6mph this year, and his split-finger whiff% is 33% when it was well in the 40s the previous 4 years. K% lowest since 2018. Father time might be catching up to him, and once the split-finger is average he may fall off a cliff.
  19. SaberNerd
    In his 2 starts, he had a 32 K% against RHB, and a 7% against LHB. This compared to 38%/30% in AAA. In both AAA and the majors this year, the ball has been leaving the yard with a 24% HR/FB. He was only at around 13% last year between AA and AAA, so need to figure out why hitters are crushing the ball when they make contact. We might see Festa out of the bullpen come September, but he will be a starter in 2025.
  20. SaberNerd
    Definitely would be happy if this is how it turned out. At 21, Caldwell and Gillen (if he makes it) are a couple of other guys I think would be a good pick. Love Sanford, don't think he makes it to 33. I think the HS hitters will go earlier and the pitchers will go later than people are thinking, so I think this will be a HS pitcher. The Twins seem to like this demo in this range (Petty at 25, Soto at 34).
  21. SaberNerd
    The current FO doesn't draft pure relief prospects, and all of the relievers that have been developed started at least through AA (Jax, Alcala, Sands, Varland, Duran, Funderburk). The guys in the bullpen are the ones not good enough to start.
  22. SaberNerd
    I'd definitely like Campos. I wouldn't be surprised if they took him at 60 or 69; it would be less of a shock than Jeffers at 59.
  23. SaberNerd
    He was, but he has regressed significantly the past few years. From 2017-2021, Statcast had him as a +45 run outfielder, which dropped to 0 from 2022-2023. Currently -4 this year (and I'm not sure they have last night in the data yet).
  24. SaberNerd
    Trading Kepler puts way too much pressure on Larnach/Wallner/Keirsey. None of them have had a full season of being an MLB caliber player. For payroll, it's not needed. Other teams will be willing to eat 100% of payroll for a rental.
  25. SaberNerd
    For the first few starts of the year, they were only having him throw 50 pitches. He hasn't thrown a ton of innings in previous years, so this was likely an attempt to have him as a potential option in September/October rather than get shut down. He also hasn't always been efficient with his pitch count. Command issues and large number of whiffs lead to long PA. I wouldn't be surprised if he only goes 5 innings at around 85 pitches.
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