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SaberNerd

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Everything posted by SaberNerd

  1. SaberNerd
    We are nowhere near an organizational problem for walks compared to the rest of baseball, and it's closer to an organizational strength. Average BB% in the minors is around 11% for each league the Twins have a full-season team in; Raya only walks slightly more batters than league average and Morris has walked less than average at AAA (with a 5% at A+/AA). Matthews had the best command of any legitimate prospect in the minors this year. We also have the 2nd lowest BB% in MLB
  2. SaberNerd
    Jenkins has been looking like the player scouts saw out of HS lately. Up to a 136 wRC+ at CR with a 16 K%. Probably needs a couple of years just to get stronger and those long flyballs turn into HRs.
  3. SaberNerd
    Adams is having a great year, but a 25K% at AA while being 24 all year doesn't scream future starter. Probably a guy who you stick in the bullpen and hope that improves the stuff enough. Doing a better job at not walking guys than the past 2 years. Amick making a bunch of really loud contact. .196 ISO would be 3rd of 37 qualified players in the FSL and only has a 19K%. Still way too early, but showing why some major boards had him as a fringe 1st rounder.
  4. SaberNerd
    He gets a 45% whiff rate on the pitch. It's probably his best pitch and the 4-seam/sinker/changeup combination all seem to work well pitching north/south. Slider (32% whiff) should work better than it has, which will likely be the main point of his offseason.
  5. SaberNerd
    Eeles just continues to surprise. Steamer projection currently has him at a 104wRC+ for the majors, and while there are definitely concerns about low exit velocities, I'd easily have him as a top 30 guy. For the offseason 40-man, it likely makes sense not to call him up to save a spot. Soto was better than his line had him. Gave up 5 hits on balls hit <=85mph, only 2 balls hit >=95mph. Only 1 FB allowed. Not liking DeBarge striking out this much. Going from 10% his Jr year to 24% at A, and with below average power he can't afford to strike out much.
  6. SaberNerd
    Culpepper and Kendle both are making too much contact to stay at low A. SSS, but with a 5% and 3% K-rate respectively, I'd promote both of them Monday.
  7. SaberNerd
    Lewis throws around 91, but does get high IVB. If he threw 95 with the same movement, he'd be a borderline top 100 guy. Knuckleball and Curveball both are good pitches. Doubts about whether the fastball will work take a hit here. On the college arms, nobody stands out, but a few guys that could be something if they add more to the fastball. It's nowhere near as good as the 2022 draft class was. Ty Langenberg has a 92.5mph fastball with a good sweeper. Jeremy Lee is 91 with a 3000+ rpm curveball and a 6 pitch mix. Nolan Santos 92 with intriguing cutter/curveball/changeup, although really SSS for data and has been used as a reliever. Tanner Hall has a great changeup and good slider, throws a 89mph sinker with a ton of run. Xander Hamilton 92 with a good slider/changeup, also as a reliever.
  8. SaberNerd
    Morris showed promising results, but there is a good amount he needs to work on. A large part of his dominance at A+/AA was HR prevention, and he certainly did not show that with 3 100+MPH and 6 95+MPH flyballs. Way too many sliders/cutters left in the heart of the zone, and that just isn't going to play in MLB. Fastball was solid. Not a ton of whiffs, but guys weren't squaring it up either. 94mph average. Changeup location was in mostly in the zone, but not in bad areas so it got weak contact but no whiffs. He's still 22, so it really isn't a problem if he needs to spend a year in AAA before getting his first shot.
  9. SaberNerd
    Almost every team is doing this strategy to some extent. The Twins have been one of the best teams at adding velocity, and all of their success stories didn't have an MLB caliber fastball out of college. The question is can other orgs figure out what we are doing.
  10. SaberNerd
    Fangraphs prospect guy often has takes that are far different than other outlets. His changeup has been his best pitch getting a 44% whiff rate and looks like it a 60 grade pitch. A big part of his improvement has throwing way less cutters (which were getting shelled) and doing a much better job limiting damage off the fastball. IMO both Morris and Soto are top 200 but not 100 guys and pretty close to each other. Morris much more likely to be a contributor, but doesn't strike out a ton of guys at AA and not sure there is much projection left. Soto has a ton to work on, but the velo/changeup combination is not something every organization has. He had a higher A-ball K% at 18 than Morris did at 21.
  11. SaberNerd
    The depth of the pitching in the org is far above where it has been in the past. We've had good pitching prospects in the past, but the bust rate is so high that there are so few prospects that you feel confident about being good MLB pitchers. Having these two as the 3-4 pitchers, and a host of intriguing guys behind them gives us the ability to deal with most of them being busts.
  12. SaberNerd
    Agree with the idea, but Festa was ready for MLB time. Plenty of guys just need multiple shots before they make it. He was leading AAA in K%.
  13. SaberNerd
    If you have to pick a winner, it is clearly us. Polanco is worth -0.4 fWAR and the Mariners picked up salary in the trade. While it is not clear that we will actually gain any MLB production from this trade, we still have 3 players who could in the future, while they will have 0 when they decline Polanco's option. With our budget and surplus at 2B, if we don't do this trade we probably don't sign Santana and put one of Julien/Polanco at 1B.
  14. SaberNerd
    Varland has a good fastball, but hasn't shown the quality secondary pitches to pitch deep into games. He has a 1.92 ERA the first time through the order and a 10.26 ERA after that. My thought is that you sign Rich Hill and then have him and Varland split the starters workload. Using 2 roster spots isn't ideal, but I think they could combine to give 6 innings of low 4 ERA.
  15. SaberNerd
    In his little bit at AAA, Matthews has shown a solid fastball and a slider that misses bats. Also has Cutter/Curveball/Changeup which aren't big K pitches, but give him different looks. Could really use one of them taking a step forward to help against LHH. 12.7K/9 vs RHH, 8.4 vs LHH. Don't have public Statcast on Morris, but he seems to be fastball-slider for punching guys out. Also has a curveball/cutter/changeup that sites have been lower on. Strikes out less and walks more than Zebby, but he is over a year younger. Similar K/9 and BB/9 for LHH and RHH, which surprises me for a fastball-slider guy
  16. SaberNerd
    On the ERA front, there have been a number of pitchers at Fort Myers who have ERA's significantly higher than their FIP (Pasqualotto, Soto, Langenberg, Dunn). It could just be poor defense at that level rather than guys getting hit really hard. Hall's Slider/Changeup combination misses bats, but his fastball averages <90mph with poor extension as well dropping the perceived velocity about 1mph. If he doesn't throw harder he likely isn't an MLB player. He'll stay as a starter for now, but I think he probably ends up in the bullpen for the velo bump.
  17. SaberNerd
    Lot of good debuts in Fort Myers. With how well many of these guys hit in college, they probably are too good for this level but it is still good to see them hit regardless. Sometimes you see a college hitter just not hit in the pros (Sabato's had a strikeout problem in A ball). It will be interesting to see how the TD readers view DeBarge vs Amick. Amick was ranked higher by a lot of baseball people, but the Twins clearly preferred DeBarge. Only time will tell.
  18. SaberNerd
    They haven't had good SP this year though. 24th in ERA, 29th in fWAR. Best bullpen though, so it will be much easier to strike against the starters.
  19. SaberNerd
    At what point does Eeles transition from a feel-good story into a legitimate prospect? At the lower levels I thought it was just an older player dominating kids, but he's hitting at AAA with more walks than strikeouts.
  20. SaberNerd
    With Bohorquez being in Fort Myers, finally have public Statcast data on him and he looks like a legit prospect. Fastball around 95mph, and a 2900RPM curveball, just 19. Long ways away, but this puts him in the top 30 conversation.
  21. SaberNerd
    If Hall is able to add velo to the fastball, he could be a significant contributor. Both the Changeup (38 Whiff%) and Slider (40%) both miss bats, but a fastball with an average speed under 90MPH won't cut it. Probably a bullpen arm since I doubt he adds enough for the fastball to work as a starter.
  22. SaberNerd
    Right time to cut bait. We got some decent value out of him, but his 3.5 ERA was with 0 HR allowed which won't continue. 18 K%/ 14 BB% is not a guy who will work out. Richards isn't exciting, but he seems much more fixable than Staumont. Small adjustments and more LHH-focused usage could be a decent arm in the pen.
  23. SaberNerd
    I did the math, and the Twins are $2,950 underslot with Culpepper unsigned. Besides those 2 and Amick (who was exactly slot), every other pick in the top 10 rounds was underslot. The Twins could sign Merit Jones (20th rounder) if Culpepper saves enough money.
  24. SaberNerd
    He'd be a solid get, but I don't think Miami moves him unless they get an overpay due to the team control. That control imo would make him cost more than Scott, and in that case just get Scott.
  25. SaberNerd
    SSS but in his 10 July games Jenkins has a .343/.540/.457 line with 15BB/6K. Not the power we are hoping for yet, but his approach looks to be too good for low A.
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