Kenny Powers

4 lefty (Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach, Waller) 5 right (Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Lewis, Jeffers) Agree on uncertainly/injuries - but injuries are part of the game and they have plenty of other young guys who should be able to step up. They've really done a nice job of drafting.

I agree with the premise of your write up. But it seems like most posts/write ups are mentioning this Tommy Pham. I don't get it. I mean, if he can be had for cheap- sure. But I hope to Gawd they don't give up anything of great value for a 35 year old guy. Yes, he's playing well so far this year. But the two years prior his OPS was about the same as Michael Taylor. I'm not confident he's going to hit here the same as he's hitting hitting in NY. We saw this last year with the Lopez trade. The Twins sort of chased a guy on a hot streak and got burned - big time. To me, this year's team seems like the one you go "half in" on. Make some small, supplemental moves to get a right handed bat and bullpen guy. But no need to give up big prospects or anything of great value. I feel like our success is being built via the draft and we just need to be patient. Julien - age 25 Lewis - age 24 Kirilloff - age 25 Wallner - age 25 Miranda - age 25 (need to get him healthy/right) Jeffers - age 26 Larnach - age 26 That's seven guys - add in Buxon and Correa as your "veteran presence" and we good. Plus lots more young talent on the way. Trust the process.

Good write up. I've been watching Prato for a while now. My gut tells me this is still a flash in the pan - but we shall see. I'd love to give the hitting coach credit. But then I look at what Martin and Miranda are doing and I think "not so fast". IDK what to think. Michael Helman was another UT guy who seemed to come out of nowhere and start mashing. Assuming one of those two can maintain anything close to what they were doing at AAA, they certainly can push guys like Farmer, Castro, Gordon off the roster.

I agree with everything you wrote, but with one caveat...never say never. IF (and it's a big if), someone were to completely blow us away with a haul for like Sonny Gray, then I'd certainly consider flipping Gray. It would have be a great deal though. Think of being on the reverse side of some of our pitching trades: Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez. Would you trade Gray for 25 year old batting champ? I probably would. Tyler Mahle for CES, Spencer Steer and Steve Hajjar. Would you trade Gray for two highly ranked AA bats and another flier arm? I'd probably consider it. Even the original Gray trade in reverse...would you trade Gray for 19 year old Chase Petty right now? The second two trades are high risk/reward. I'd consider them based on how I feel about Keuchel. But a reverse Arraez trade might be just the boost this team needs. IDK. We won't need 5 starters for the playoffs - right?

Guys I'd be fine trading: 1.) Polonco. People will counter with "we'd be selling low". But we don't know that. He could keep getting hurt/worse. Julien has earned the 2nd base job. Moving Polonco to 3rd at age just blocks Lewis again. Polonco is still a good player (when healthy). Some team would certainly be happy to add a vet like that for the stretch run (assuming they don't have the depth we do at 2nd base). 2.) Kepler. People will counter "he's just starting to hit". But this is his 9th season. He's had exactly ONE season with an OPS over .800. And that was back in 2019. Is .743 career OPS good enough for a corner OF? Adequate perhaps (with good defense). But Gallo is also in his 9th season and has put up over .800 OPS four times including as recently as 2021. I'm not advocating for either guy as our starter. My point is we won't miss Max because Gallo could give us the same or better if Wallner/Larnach fail. But I'd want to the young guys to get their shot. Gallo could also be a PH weapon. People will say "we won't get much for those guys". That's true - by themselves. But what about other benefits? The immediate benefit would be opening roster spots for younger guys who are out performing the vets. Julien OPS = .930. Polonco OPS ..747 Wallner OPS = .906 Gallo OPS = .743 Kepler OPS = .721 Larnach OPS = .715 Wallner doesn't have a lot of ABs. But Gallo/Kepler/Larnach all look about the same to me. We won't miss Kepler. Also, there are always fringe prospects that they won't protect from Rule 5 that could be added to any deals to sweeten the pot/return. That opens up more roster spots for guys they like better. So any return we get from those guys would just be whipped cream on top of the cake IMO.

I hope they can move a couple of under performing vets to keep spots for up and coming guys including: * Royce Lewis (24) * Edourd Julien (24) * Matt Wallner (25) Those three guys are literally currently the top three on the team in OPS. Add in a couple of other younger guys like: * Kirilloff (25) * Jeffers (26) Suddenly - we have a very nice young core of guys - all of which are performing as well (or better) than the older vets. I don't want to see any of those young guys going anywhere. I know it's age discrimination (you can report me to HR), but the only guys I want move are all age 29 or older.

Yup. Also, if we are flagging guys based on negative WPA, then it's going to flag more than Pagan.... Pagan WPA = -0.09 G. Jax WPA = -0.08

I agree with both points. But...I'm also gun shy from the last several deals they've made to get relievers. I feel like we keep ending up on the short end of the stick in such trades. Further more the guys we trade for don't end up being any better than players we already had. These deals come to mind as not working out so great: Jorge Lopez for Juan Nunez, Cade Povich, Juan Rojas and Yennier Cano. Lopez gave us a 4.37 ERA and 1.63 WHIP last yr. Michael Fulmer for Sawyer Gipson-Long. Fulmer gave us 3.70 ERA and 1.56 WHIP last year (meh). Sam Dyson for Prelander Berroa, Kai-Wei Teng (minors) and Jaylin Davis. Dyson gave us a 7.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. I just feel like we can continue to piece the bull pen together. It's not intimidating, but they've had luck just throwing out hot hands this year including: 13 innings from Ortega 25 innings from Stewart 14 innings from Balazovic 17 innings from DeLeon 15 innings from Headrick That's 84 (very solid) innings from guys basically off the street. Obviously if a good deal presents itself - go for it. But for the love of all that is holy - don't over pay for relief pitching.

What I love about Ober is he just flat our produces. His career numbers from his time in the minors: 20 wins. 5 losses. 232 innings. 285 Ks. 2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. That's some pretty good numbers. And even doing that, he was never really a ranked prospect outside of being #25 in the pipeline for 2021. He just does it under the radar. What concerns me about Ober is he's never thrown more than 108 innings in a season...ever. He's at 94.7 now....I'm hopeful, but it might be stretch to count him him to eat innings for the second half.

Isn't there a middle ground though? Can we deal an established vet at a position of strength to get some prospects back? You can't mess with Julien right now. And we seem to have plenty additional depth alternatives at 2nd base including: Farmer, Castro, and Solono. Plus some interesting guys pretty close in the minors like: Prato, Martin, Severino and Schobel.... I realize it's unlikely, but I'd be totally fine dealing Polanco for prospects this point. I think it could be a win-win trade out there as (when healthy) he can still be a very effective player. But I also feel we have plenty of good internal replacement options so he really wouldn't be missed. Again - I realize it's not likely because it's rare to break up the band when you are in contention. But he's starting to block guys. I'd rather deal Polanco at this point than the next Spencer Steer. Julien seems to have Wally Pipped him at this point in my mind.

Why isn't Byron Chourio getting more ABs? He has a career batting average of .349 and career OPS of .851. Yet, I see he only has only 218 career ABs over two seasons. What am I missing? I want to see more of that kid.