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Woof Bronzer

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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer

  1. Woof Bronzer
    Who, specifically, thinks Larnach and Wallner are the same player? I don't know that I've seen a single person make this case on this website. I think there's a feeling that the 2 are redundant, that the Twins have too many left handed hitting one tool outfielders, but that's not what the writer is addressing here. Can we get an example of someone claiming they're the same player?
  2. Woof Bronzer
    I assume you are referring to the rule change about running through 2nd base...or maybe widening the 1st base runners lane....not finding any other recent rule changes. You are saying these rule changes unlocked baserunning and base stealing as a viable strategy? That for the previous 150 years teams were hesitant to run the bases aggressively due to these rules? Interesting take but the data doesn't support that...
  3. Woof Bronzer
    Agreed! "Analytics as a philosophy" is how you get to a point where 8 years into his tenure it finally occurs to Rocco that baserunning is a component of baseball and a strategy/tactic at his disposal.
  4. Woof Bronzer
    Haha you proved my point better than I ever could! "Sabermetrics is gospel! If you disagree you're an idiot." Analytics are a tool, not a philosophy.
  5. Woof Bronzer
    Yep this demonstrates a misunderstanding of statistics. A large data set may say, all things being equal, over thousands of at bats, your odds of doing X is Y. But the thing is, baseball is actually played in extremely small data sets. These are called at bats. Your odds of doing X in this one at bat depends on 1) the specific pitcher 2) the specific hitter 3) the game situation 4) the weather 5) the park 6) other external and internal factors. What an average hitter does against an average pitcher in an average at bat weather- and park-normalized over many years may be helpful back pocket info, but it really has little bearing on the outcome of particular at bat. Think of football. The coaches card may call for a field goal in a 4th and 3 situation, but if your QB is Tom Brady, the defense is the Denny Green Vikings, and it's likely your last possession, you're going to overrule the spreadsheet and go for it. Yet in baseball, the saber guys will kick the field goal 100% of the time and if anyone dares to question it they'll just say "can't argue with the data, every team in the league kicks that field goal."
  6. Woof Bronzer
    "Stop with all the negativity! All you guys do is complain about things you have no control over! Also, Dan Gladden must be fired, I hate him so much I made it my username so I'd never forget how bad he is and how much he should be fired! But like I was saying, negativity sucks!"
  7. Woof Bronzer
    Thanks for the advice! I'll be whatever fan I want to be though. Enjoy the losing!
  8. Woof Bronzer
    If Lee, Keaschall, and Buxton are the core of a team it's a 90 loss team minimum, probably closer to 100 losses.
  9. Woof Bronzer
    It's because the saber guys don't understand statistics. Just because data shows that home runs are a more efficient way to generate runs than by stealing bases, for example, does not mean you should try to hit home runs with every swing and never ever steal a base. The saber guys take these huge, extreme leaps with data and they're just wrong. Jocks and math do not mix. I'm guessing 150 years ago when the first baseball game was played, the hitters learned the rules and said "I'll just try to hit a home run every time, that's the best way." And probably by game 2 they realized "easier said than done" and started to understand the value in things like hitting for contact, sacrificing runners, stealing bases. We're living in an age where the saber guys think they've cracked the code to baseball that couldn't be cracked in 150 years. It's slowly starting to turn, but it'll take a while to dig out of this mess.
  10. Woof Bronzer
    I'm confused. The extreme sabermetrics crowd has insisted for years that baserunning doesn't matter, it isn't worth the risk and by ignoring it the Twins are just "doing what every other team does" because hitting home runs is the only offensive strategy that works and fans who don't understand this are just dumb rubes. The Twins even used to instruct their catchers to stick out the leg for pitch framing purposes and not worry about throwing base stealers out on defense. So...what changed?
  11. Woof Bronzer
    The argument is that those numbers are bad.
  12. Woof Bronzer
    I'd say it appears that the Minnesota Twins are having a terrible year if a guy like Lee is anywhere near the team leaderboard. And stating that he's 7th on THIS team in OPS and 6th in OBP as evidence of a "good year" is...interesting... Try comparing Lee to, say, the Blue Jays roster. Would you still say he's having a "pretty good year"? I'm not saying give up on Lee, not in the least. But facts are important; he's been bad this year, no getting around it. (Though trending upward, at least.)
  13. Woof Bronzer
    Yes, I agree!
  14. Woof Bronzer
    If so I hope fans don't fall for this, and I hope local media doesn't fall for this and print this Pohlad propaganda uncritically. If they were losing $40mil/year - or $4m/year, or $4/year - they would have sold the team for a song. If they were losing $40mil/year no investor on the planet would sign on. The Pohlads are not losing money.
  15. Woof Bronzer
    I'd be more interested in an argument for why the Pohlads WON'T be running lean payrolls. Does anyone seriously think they did what they did at the deadline for baseball reasons? What in the Pohlads history for the past 3 decades would lead anyone to believe they are going to suddenly care about winning? It's a lot easier to understand the Pohlads when you understand that everything they do is related to money. They do not care about the baseball at all. They brought on a couple investors to pay off their debt (billionaire rule #1: never ever spend your own money if you can spend someone else's instead), so the goal for the next few years will be paying back the investors. They'll drive costs down as far as they can. From a baseball perspective the goal will be to field A Team. Not a good team, not a serious team, not a well-constructed team, but just a list of cheap players that fill out a roster. (For a preview, look at their current roster.) They'll sign a bunch of 34-year old washups on 1 year deals and keep young guys in the minors as long as they can save a few arb nickels in 2032. Just a collection of guys they can trot out at Target Field 81 times a year for that sweet, sweet gate. They're not reloading, they're not rebuilding, they're just recalibrating the operating budget downward.
  16. Woof Bronzer
    Pohlads botch their tv situation so badly they have to get bailed out by the league and...are handed a more lucrative deal with ESPN, doing absolutely zero work in the process. So the Pohlads will hoard more wealth they will never be able to spend, and everyone else will pay more. A perfect analogy for America in 2025.
  17. Woof Bronzer
    Maybe OPS isn't the sole metric that should be used to evaluate hitters?
  18. Woof Bronzer
    Twins: "Carlos, we can only trade you if you waive your no trade. Do you want to be traded to Houston?" Correa: "Sure," Twins: "OK, done." [Twins trade Correa] TD: "Correa didn't want to be traded!"
  19. Woof Bronzer
    No arguments from me, though I'm probably a bit less inclined to give the players a pass. But 100%, culture flows downhill.
  20. Woof Bronzer
    In this instance we don't have to speculate, we had a pro athlete (Pablo Lopez) share his mind here. He said culture needs to change here. And your instinct is to dismiss what he says, because you know best, clearly. Great job.
  21. Woof Bronzer
    The original poster said nobody who was traded wanted to be traded. That's false, we know for sure that both Correa and Jax did. Do you think Pablo is lying when he says the culture needs to improve? Is he a rube for thinking culture matters?
  22. Woof Bronzer
    For those dismissing culture as meaningless: is Pablo an idiot? If culture doesn't matter, why did he go out of his way to give an out of character interview claiming the opposite? We're not in the clubhouse; he is, and he thinks it's a problem. Does his opinion matter? Again, Pablo Lopez, a professional baseball player, gave an interview saying culture is important and needs to improve. And posters here are essentially saying "Lol Pablo you rube, culture doesn't matter." Another TD classic.
  23. Woof Bronzer
    I think it's much more complicated than this. If this were true the most talented team would win the Series every year and that simply isn't the case. Think of 2 years ago, Rangers vs DBacks. Were they the most talented teams in their respective leagues? To your point, MLB is full of talented, highly trained players. The worst teams still have pitchers throwing mid 90s and guy mashing homers. Almost every team wins more than 60 games and less than 100 games each year. Winning happens at the margins. And having a good team culture and chemistry matters. Ask anyone who has played the game. I've been on less talented teams that overperformed because we all got along and had strong leaders; I've been on really talented teams that underperformed because the egos got in the way and nobody led. Of course talent matters. But culture matters too.
  24. Woof Bronzer
    From watching him play. I posted this yesterday, but the image that best sums up the Rocco/Falvey era is last September when the Twins needed a win to stay alive and Correa made the last out dogging it to 1B. The throw was bad so if he'd been running he would have been safe. Is this leadership to you? You will never convince me a locked-in, engaged "leader" will make the last out of the season trotting to first. But again, this goes well beyond Correa. Other players should have get on Correa for dogging it. Rocco should have held him accountable. None of that happened. The Twins are broken.
  25. Woof Bronzer
    Several things can be true here. Correa was clearly checked out for more than a year and you simply cannot be a leader if you don't lead by example. We don't know what happened in the clubhouse but we saw with our own eyes a guy who didn't give a full effort - that can't be denied. If your on the field leader can't be bothered to run out grounders that's going to trickle down to the rest of the team. I really don't want to hear Correa and leader/winner in the same sentence anymore. It's easy to be a leader when your team goes to 7 straight ALCS; a real leader helps the team navigate tougher times, and Correa just had no visible interest in this. Doesn't make him evil, just not a leader. But this goes beyond just one player. It is also on Rocco. If you can't instill a winning attitude in your players and hold them accountable to that standard...what do you do as a manager? And it's also on Falvey, for discounting every single thing in the game of pro baseball that can't be reduced to a sabermetric, and for emphasizing process over results. And, like everything, the buck stops with the Pohlads. Corporations don't accidentally have a culture of customer service, for example; they have to set that as a goal and build an organization accordingly. If top brass doesn't value customer service the day to day managers won't either. Same thing for winning - it doesn't happen by accident, and the Pohlads have never ever prioritized it, and this indifference has trickled down onto the field. The rot in this organization runs deep...
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