Hawkeye Bean Counter

Bengard had an ERA of 2 last year, and in 23 innings of A+ ball was 1.5. This is not a guy to sleep on. He didn't strike out a ton last year, but he only walked 14 batters in 80 innings pitched. Yes if he can get a little more swing and miss, it may increase his chances, but for now, the kid can straight up pitch. At the higher levels we will see if they can hit him more consistently and harder.

So what has this spring taught us with France, its that he is seeing the ball and has confidence again. That bodes well for this year, and yes I would lean towards his numbers replicating closer to 2022 numbers than say 2024. He has been pretty transparent in his journey and approach. He had a a heck of a couple years, then he struggled a bit in 2023 and rather than try to go back to what made him successful, he went to driveline and tried to recreate the wheel. Now his April and May numbers were actually pretty solid, then he got injured and everything fell off a cliff. This year he went back to Tony Gwynns approach to a simple approach of see ball, hit ball. Don't worry about getting the perfect launch angle, don't try to reach for homers, hit the ball often and damn hard. So far that is a success. Yes its limiting Miranda a bit, but it also gives Miranda another year to grow into the position and we can see what he can do in a platoon and 1st and DH role. I had said when he signed him there was definitely some upside to the signing and so far it looks like a heck of a steal, but spring training numbers are notorious for being meaningless, so we will keep watching and see how the early months go.

Spring training is to be taken with a grain of salt, but Bader and France are hitting the cover off the ball. Buxton has been above average, and Correa . . . doesn't have a hit yet. Correa has been starting off slow the last couple of years and currently it is looking like it may be a similar set up. Cautiously it looks like Bader and Frances approaches appear to be in a pretty good spot and may have some outperformance years if they can stay healthy. I use spring training primarily to judge confidence and how comfortable they feel and right now Bader and France look like 2 of our best hitters in spring training.

Being from Iowa and following the Iowa program, I have been high on Langenberg for a while. His stuff is solid. As I have mentioned before specifically in the discussions about Brecht in the 2024 draft, is Iowa got a new Pitching coach, and lets just say he was not very good at his job. He was recently let go. Langenberg has above average to solid stuff. The upside won't be some of the other pitchers we have, but as shown above, with his stuff he has availability and is willing and able to go longer in pitch counts. Even at the mlb level, solid pitchers that can eat innings is a valuable commodity. In his second full year, I expect another solid jump in his performance. Velocity will continue to improve, and he will continue to control the zone well. I think those early starts last year he was trying to implement some new things and it took a while to click. The issue I am seeing is will there be a spot for Langenberg on the big league team. As discussed above, we have a ton of depth on the pitching side right now in the minor leagues.

97 mph fastball, with some decent secondary pitches. A lot more spring training to go, but he looks usable in an extremely SSS.

Other interesting stat, was France going 1 for 2 with a double, and I think another well hit ball down the line that was caught. Everything I have heard is France is slow as molasses, so the fact he got a hit and secondly got a double, is something that I take as interesting. If he can hit more of those doubles and make more contact, it makes 2021 to 2022 stat lines more feasible.

So getting the impression we are back to square 1?

The twins have made some high selections on some talented pitchers in the top 2 rounds of the draft the last 3 years. I have always said we have been having decent luck at producing pitchers the last couple of years, but we need someone who can develop into that #1 type pitcher. There have been some very good developments at the end of the season and in spring training. 2022 - Priellip - obviously has been on the shelf more than not but came back strong at the end of the season last year. In his last 9 innings (3 games) he fanned 15 batters in high A. In bullpen sessions he has been hitting 98 mph. He puts a ton of spin on the slider, and ultimately that is the pitch that is going to be make or break to his success, can the elbow remain healthy while continuing to put so much rpm onto that pitch. If so the stuff is definitely good enough to be a #1 or #2 type pitcher. 2023 - Soto - began pitching as a junior in high school. Twins were aggressive putting him in A ball, but he really started to assert himself towards the end of the season. He has hit 100 mph on his fastball in bullpen sessions. He still needs some work on his secondary pitches, and definitely still some development on control, but the sky is the limit for this kid. #1 type pitcher still on the table, but much more projection than someone like Priellip. 2024 - Hill - another lefty like Priellip and another high school pick like Soto. In bullpen sessions averaged 97 mph yesterday. Huge improvement. He was more developed that Soto as a pitcher, but still has some work. We have 3 pitchers with extremely high upside. I am impressed by the progress they have made and can't wait to see what they accomplish this season.

So Ishbia's were the primary option, White Sox got scared and gave him more ownership, is that effectively what occurred here?

He hit 98 mph on the fastball just the other day, and his slider still has the crazy spin that is having horizontal and vertical drop, with a wicked change-up. that is 3 pitches all coming from the exact same arm slot causing major tunnel issues for a hitter. 15 strikeouts in 9 innings pitched would tell you high A ball or not is crazy. If he can maintain his stuff, as he goes longer outings and remain healthy, that upside is absolutely still a #1 type pitcher. That is what he did AFTER the injuries. What you worry about injuries is that it saps the velocity or movement or the major risk here is that he will continue to have injuries. My viewpoint is it was 1 big injury, yes there is some future risk of injury, but that up to this point it doesn't seem affect his velocity and thus his upside. Maybe in your view it does. However, like Ragans who had significant time off for injuries and inconsistency at that MLB level, that caused him to traded from Texas to Kansas City in the Chapman trade, it doesn't negate the ultimate talent there. The talent just has to be healthy enough to stay on the field and execute. .

So if he became an elite pitcher that wouldn't be awesome? The second part said it wasn't a far fetched idea, its not a baseline, but he has the ceiling that could achieve that. I don't know where he will end up. His stuff is ridiculous though, especially for a lefty.

I personally never thought Balazovics stuff was good enough. A low 90's fastball, with 2 other hard thrown breaking pitches, that were all relatively in the zone is no where close to Priellips arsenal. So if we are going to look at limited data and do projection, At high A ball Balazovic had ERA of 2.84 with SO/9 of 11.8. That is very good. But he was also inducing a lot of weak contact at that level. As he rose up the levels, the weak contact became hard contact. Priellip, coming off of injuries and not pitching for several years, had a 3.26 ERA and had a SO/9 of 14.9. He went through 3 starts in a row, 9 innings 15 strikeouts to end the season. The biggest difference between the 2 even at this level, is Priellip has much more swing and miss off of his pitch arsenal. It is a SSS. I understand that, and he will have to prove it, and show he can remain healthy and that he can maintain his stuff as he moves up. With someone like Balazovic who was 20 they were projecting his stuff would get better as well, it never did. With Priellip, you don't have to project, the stuff is there. That is the difference between the 2 in my opinion.

"it's impossible to truly grade his stuff." That is what I was responding too. The stuff as is there, you can grade an elite slider, you can grade a plus fastball, you can grade a + curve ball, and that he all throws it from the same tunnel, yes you know exactly the type of player that he can be. I said it will come down to consistency and health and ultimately execution. To me he will play (if healthy), the question will come down to what is his ceiling. A reliever, a back end arm, a mid rotation arm or a #1 or #2 arm. My point is that we know his stuff will play even at the highest levels, that isn't something difficult to judge, he just need to be healthy and continue to show it at the higher levels. I think we are on the same page its why I was confused.

Linus so what did you disagree with my above post?

He is their number 6 prospect and extremely high on him. Priellip talk starts at 1:06:00. Priellips stuff is the best total package we have in the minors in my opinion. If he is throwing 95-98 mph with his elite secondary pitches. They are saying as he is, a 50 FV, but they have him at 45 because of injuries. A healthy season where he continues to execute is what we need to see. He has not put together a full season output since high school. You know a 95-98 mph fastball, with a plus plus slider that is breaking on 2 planes, and a change up is elite. We don't need to see it against the top levels, he has already shown it at Alabama, he showed it last year. It will play. All that is needed is health and consistency. I am very optimistic on Priellip and have been for a while.

Santana, Solano, and Cruz say hi.

He had and 826 OPS in May. I am not expecting a renaissance to his 2021-2022 stats. I do think he could be a 1 to 2 WAR player if he is healthy. Maybe an outside chance the power pops, but that is far from baseline scenario. this is definitely a wait and see situation and I am very surprised that they are basically slotting him into the starting 1st base role (minimal platoon).

He has never been fast but a right heel fracture doesn't help either.

Kepler has a career 20+ WAR. What I am discussing is the expected stats vs actual. The difference most people call is luck, others say it is due to other circumstances or issues and not truly luck.

How can you defend one signing but go after the others, or go after my previous post? All these signings are gamble on an expected performance. Thinking you can pull something out of a player others have been unable to. For as much consternation as Kepler got here, I think that is going to be the type of player France is here if he makes the team. It will be whether the hard barrels, can translate into hits. If so you could have a mini renaissance to his 2020-2021 levels. A 2-3 War could be possible. For 1 million its a reasonable gamble. its no more of gamble than Gallo. The question is whether it is redundant with Miranda and Julien. 1 more option to flash seems like a good option. Yes I wish they were willing to spend more but until we can get new owners that isn't going to change.

I do think dodgers kicked in more, but that was the article I found. Ok, so yes we were both right, Dodgers kicked in another $2 million dollars. So that is how they got to $4 million, but that was including the 2 million that was intended for the 2025 buyout as well. In total Twins paid him $6 million is my guess.

He is owed a $10 million salary in 2024 with a $2 million buyout of his $12 club option for 2025. The Rays are paying $4 million as part of the trade with the Dodgers-- $2 million in 2024 plus the $2 million buyout if Margot's option is declined -- so Margot is an $8 million player for the Twins. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-trade-manuel-margot-to-twins-just-months-after-acquisition-bring-back-enrique-hernandez/#:~:text=He is owed a %2410,million player for the Twins.&text=Margot is a career .

Margot - $8 million Gallo - $11 million Bader - $4. million with a maximum $1.5 million buyout based on plate appearances France - $1 million Bader and France are no where near a Margot, Colome or Gallo situation. With all these bottom barrel signings you are hoping for that 25% chance or less of a breakout year - or a solid year on an aging player like Santana. We like to crap on the signings that don't work out but tend to forget the Santana, Solano, Nelson Cruz contracts really working out. France won't just be trotted out there consistently, you have Miranda and Julien that will be pushing him and may outplay him in spring ball. France hit the ball hard last year, but also had an uptick on his whiff percentage, if he can get just a little more lift and turn more ground outs into singles, and singles into doubles, he is back to the player he was in 20 and 21.

France, gives another shot at finding something special at 1st base. For 1 million and Headrick, I think that is more than fair. This isn't a Gallo situation of giving a 11 million of money that the front office will feel tied too. France hit the ball very hard last year, but was unlucky, similar type player to Kepler, so with that in mind I am not surprised they took a chance on him. Yes there is no great 1st baseman on the team right now, but hopefully we can find 1 to play solid 1st base, and 1 to be a decent DH.

The biggest question is whether these major league or minor league signings.