Hawkeye Bean Counter

At Tennessee. The early reports prior to the season was poor defensive metrics, the metrics for college came back much better and many of the scouts stated as much, buy you had several that maintained effectively a low defensive ceiling and did not increase it based on his improved defense.

Linus - The initial reports on Amick were poor defensively and poor range, In 2024 he really did quite well and was above average on most defensive metrics. Now last I had saw was he had 2 errors at 3rd base so far this year. He had been moving around and playing some 1st base, but 3rd base isn't out of the question. The bigger issue is, I don't see how he displaces 3rd place in the near future. With Lewis and Lee likely manning the positions, I ultimately think Keaschall ends up at 2nd. If Keaschall continues to push the team, we could see a trade in the future between Lee, keaschall and Lewis.

Position is the weakest really? How do you figure? Infielders: Keashall, Lee, Culpepper, Debarge Amick, Doncon (flip for Miller) Outfielders: Jenkins Rodriguez Winokur Those are just the high end players, and thats a lot.

Looks like my call they they were going to go on a bit of a run was spot on. They still need to continue to hit more, but the pitching will keep you in most games. We are still probably a month or more away from being full strength but we are well on our way.

I guess I didn't realize top 30 pitchers didn't include pitchers that weren't cy young or All Stars. My bad LOL. Ryan just needs to remain healthy and he will likely be well in the top 30. In either case he is #2 and worst, and that is a dang fine pitcher by any metric.

This is something me and you have not seen eye to eye on. Lets split the drafts pre-covid 17-19, Covid Year, Post Covid. 17 - Lewis and Ober. We are still waiting for Lewis to remain healthy and steady production, but he still has the potential at being an all star. Ober has been a great find. For 18 you have Larnach, Jeffers, Keirsey and Sands - That is a very solid draft. Jeffers has been the best so far, Larnach seems to be turning a corner and Sands is solidifying in the bullpen. 19 - Wallner, Julien, Varland (traded away Steer) - 2 very solid pieces it appears right now in Wallner and Varland. I hoped for more out of Julien but alas I don't think his defense will be able to hold up at the mlb level. I ignore the 2020 draft even though it has netted us Raya 2021 draft - We traded away our first 5 draft picks to supplement the big league team. The petty Trade appears to be a massive win. The rest were meh. We will still have Festa and Ohl who both look like solid pitchers. 22-24 Our best drafts by far. Lee, Matthews, both look like major league pieces. Morris, Lewis, Culpepper are all wait and see. In 23 its absolutely loaded - Jenkins, Soto, Keaschall, Winokur, Questad 24 - Culpepper, Debarge, Amick, Hill. Overall the 17 through 19 drafts should be the core of our lineup now, they have been solid and we got some pieces but I will agree with you that up to this point we haven't had a star that has netted a ton of WAR, although Lewis still flashes that ability to fill that roll. The 21 draft was absolutely a great draft class, we just used it to supplement the big league team. That happens. The 22-24 drafts classes should all be in the minor leagues. We have had Lee Matthews and Keaschall all flash and have the potential to be key cogs (even though Lee and Keaschall might be slightly redundant and blocking each other. All in all these last 4 drafts have been exceptional. We only have the last 3 to really work with, but they have added a ton of depth to the minor leagues. I fully expect the WAR from the drafts to start piling up as early as this year. I think the Twins have been a top 5 draft team as of late, top 10 at worst. This is not an area that I would be harping on much. Overall the drafts were ok not great early, and they really have hit their stride the last couple of years with 3 high school arms and another high end college pitcher really increasing the quality pitching depth in the minor leagues. Just like I told you about this season, you need to have the patience to let the team and the draft picks to shine. If you look at a singular moment in time, yes it might not look great but it might not be the full picture of the what the team or draft picks are capable of. If you want to have a negative view be my guest. Overall, I still really think this organization has a great future, based on their drafting.

He is a top 30 WAR pitcher this year. He has been a top 30 pitcher through July of the last 2-3 years then has struggled due to injury or wearing out to ending the last couple season. Effectively stating he is a top 30 pitcher is stating he is a low end #1 pitcher. He looks like a low end #1 pitcher. He has effectively been a solid #2 to high end #2 pitcher for the large portions of the last 2 1/2 years. I am not sure where you are going with this.

Ok, so we are discussing a top 30 pitcher in Baseball who has a little less than 3 years of control left. First off, why do you trade when you have a fairly stacked team. Secondly, pitching is the most costly asset in baseball. We have been trading away assets to finally have a strong pitching group and this is now trading it away. I think it is still the mantra this is a fire sale season and they don't realize we are only 2 games below .500. The deal is extremely poor value. The head liner is 1st/3rd baseman -the cheapest asset to acquire in baseball. The value is way off, the timing is way off and overall doesn't make much sense.

Twins are going to steal this win and sweep the series. Orioles should have had a lot more than 2 runs. We came up with the offense when we needed it. Wow, now just need to finish it.

Another article on the offseason, ok I think we have beat this horse enough. We know the limitations of the ownership that was put on the front office. Now lets look at the team. This is my view - Jax and Julien by themselves have lost us 4 games at least. Jax seems to be getting back on track, Julien I think may effectively be done as a twin. The bat can play, the defense is giving me Knoblach flashbacks at the end of his tenure. The injuries have really sapped the depth of our team. At one point we had Bride, Gasper and Clemens on the roster, and at least 1 to 2 of them were in the lineup. Correa for whatever reason does not hit in April. It frustrates the hell out of me, don't know what to do about it, and then he goes out and goes 3-4 (1 was gift, the home run was blasted). The infield appears to be solidifying to expectations. Correa, Lewis, Lee and France, is really a pretty darn solid infield. France was 2 ft away from a homerun last night. I have been really impressed with the way he is hitting the ball. Outfield, Buxton is playing awesome, Bader has been solid. Wallner was probably our best player prior to the injury. He should be back in a couple weeks. Then you add in Keaschall who showed he belongs in the MLB. It did not overwhelm him at all. Then you have Mccusker mashing in the minors. The hitting roster, all in all I think will be solid to above average. The pitching will carry us this year. They continue to do their job on the starter front, and the bullpen seems to be shaking off the rust and finding their roles. The nuts and bolts is this is still a top 8 roster in baseball (when healthy). I still have my bet with my son that they will be in the playoffs. I also fully stand by that they will be right around 5 games over 500 by the end of June. They look primed to go on a bit of a run here.

Honestly France could become a midterm solution. Amick could become a longterm solution, as of today I think there is 1 player that is more likely right now, and that is McCusker. Yes they would have to work on 1st base technique, but 1st base will likely be his long term home in a few years, while his bat can continue to mash.

We are 15-20 in early may. My guess is we are 5 games over .500 by the end of June, I doubt we will be selling then. This game is still about pitching and we will get enough hitting as some of our reinforcements begin to get healthy.

I had noticed that. Think he will jump up to AAA to see how well he is doing before they would bring him up to the big leagues, plus see if last year was just a small sample size or there has been some major improvement in his contact rates.

He has looked very good. He is the non sexy pick that will likely produce, most likely as a reliever. There is value in that. I definitely had recency bias of looking at primarily the last 2 drafts.

The young high end pitchers are looking very good. Priellip, Charlee Soto, Questad, Hill have had fantastic performances in the early going. Tanner Hall is still an enigma to me. He had 14 walks in 109 innings pitched in 2022 in college, and 33 in 2023. His calling card was control. This year he has 1.6 whip with 12 walks in 18 innings pitched. He had a very good game yesterday, but he needs to continue working on limiting the hits and walks. I am hoping he his turning the corner, but it is looking like he was a very good college pitcher and that may be his ceiling. Pasqualotto, Bragg and Bengard from 2023 are both looking extremely strong in reliever roles. AAA has been rough on pitching so far other than Matthews who has been exceptional, and Morris who has been very good, after that it falls off. Lewis has 9 era and Raya an 8 ERA (even worse, a 2.78 whip, woof). Hopefully as it gets warmer and they can break off some rust they will begin to look stronger as the season goes on. Doktorczyk, and Peschl from last years draft, have performed very well so far. Kisting, Jones, and Carpenter have been solid as well.

On Gamecase it says Correa fouled a ball off by his face? Why did he swing at that . . . and then he struck out. At least no double play.

Too bad the Twins didn't call him up a week or two early if he does. Currently he will not qualify for an extra draft pick.

If we sweep the White Sox we are 10-15. Being 5 games under .500 this early in the season is not a big deal. You just can't create too big of a hole and not be able to climb back out of. There are at minimum 3 big blown save opportunities, that would put us close to .500 or over .500 even with the offense not fully clicking. I still have a bet with my son that the Twins make the playoffs this year. We will see.

I think he has improved a ton, but I also think they were truly just working on continuing to develop his mechanics and pitch repertoire, and the stats weren't showing the progress he was making. They obviously had a lot of confidence moving him up to A ball this year. I think they definitely knew they had something this offseason and moved him up and so far he is performing at an exceptional level.

I was thinking the Twins have not only done pretty well the last 2 drafts, but it has been incredibly balanced. I started thinking this morning you could make a team that would be very competitive at High A if not AA by the end of the year as the pitchers get a little more seasoned. So I went down the rabbit hole and this is what I came up with. Outfielders - Winokur, Jenkins, Kendle 1st Amick, 2nd Keaschall, SS Culpepper, 3rd Debarge, C Diaw, DH Thomason Pitchers Soto, Hill, Questad You have several other pitchers some have struggled this year, some are decent returns. Doktorczyk, Jones, Bengard, Pasqualotto, Bragg have been solid to start the year. Langenberg has struggled to start the season but had a very good year last year. Dunn has been meh but usable. Lee has been atrocious. Tanner Hall is my biggest scratch my head pick so far, he was magnificent in college, excellent control, increase some velocity and the control has fallen off the cliff. The top end of SP is exceptional. Both Hill and Soto have MLB talent, just need to continue to put in the work. For me Questad is the biggest wow so far in the minor leagues. Other than a home run he has been virtually unhittable. The walks are a tad high, but with as much swing and miss as he has had, that pretty impressive. I do think you have enough arms you could field a competitive team, but those bats holy crap - that can not only play well now but have a ton of upside.

Right now Questad will be the biggest mover in the prospect standings. Not even in the top 50 prospects on this list. https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects-2025/ So far he is looking dominant. Yes he gave up a home run, but he is getting a lot of swing and miss and efficiently getting through innings. I would say he jumps easily into the top 25 prospects and possibly top 20. We are starting to see some of the teams starting to get healthy. I fully expect all the minors to do very well this year. Pitching should be very good at each level.

The defense is improving, he was mediocre to poor for several seasons, then in 2024 had a significant upgrade in his defensive metrics and was a net positive on defense last year for the Vols. Amick has a ton of power the biggest question with him was whether his hit tool would be good enough and that he was slow (I think a 40 grade) . In the past he has had lots of swing and miss. The early returns are very very good on Amick so far. The swing and miss is down, in some aspects the power is actually down a bit this year as well. I will take this version though. Edit: Looks like Twins have been splitting Amick between 3rd and 1st so far this year. He does have 2 errors at 3rd. I remember last year there was 1 analyst who absolutely hated Amick. I tried to find the report, it was rather scathing - but so far no luck LOL. So far he is looking like a very solid pick.

This is a multi-layered issue. Here is the issues so far this season that you can put on Baldelli's shoulders. 1. The biggest one being Jax, continuing to run him out and having 3 blown saves. He hasn't looked right this year, what worked so well last year, just isn't this year. In my opinion should have been optioned down sooner or sent to the DL. 2. Batters as a whole getting off to slow starts. This is becoming a trend. Not in his control: 1. Signing Correa who consistently gets off to slow starts. 2. Having several injuries to key players. I do think this team will get better as some of the batters heal, and Griffin Jax either figures it out, moves to lower leveraged innings, or is optioned to figure it out. There is too much talent on this team to not be competitive, especially if we are going to get solid play at 1st base from our $1 million dollar man - Ty France.

"But there’s another name Twins fans should be watching closely, and he’s been flying under the radar far too long." He is our 9th rated prospect and ton of buzz last year.

Pretty ugly out there. I am taking the MSTR/Bitcoin stance. So far minimal losses. I am most worried that the world will sell dollars otherwise would just be in cash. I really can't handicap what the market will do tomorrow, possibly a reprieve. In either case, we have to assume profits will come down, inflation up, and unemployment rising. We are down a lot, but I still feel like we have the potential for more downside. No matter what happens I think bitcoin goes up, either from the Fed increasing liquidity, the dollar declining, or a V shaped recovering. Best strategy I can come up with right now with a potential high payoff if bitcoin spikes. Edit: Then I realize its sold of quite a bit today. LOL. Still long term likely the place I want to be.