Hawkeye Bean Counter

On the 40 man LOL.

Actually no, with Hill and Carpenter they overpaid, 1,190,000 million. With Debarge, Diaw, Ferrar, Kendle, Bender, Jones, Hall, Doktorczyk, and Carr the Twins have saved 1,233,000. Looks like will be pretty close to slot or slightly over for Culpepper unless will go over slot for a few more players that remained unsigned.

So it has kind of been mentioned but Priellip has obviously been missed (never mind 48, wow). Likely needs to be anywhere from 7-15, after 4 very sharp innings. The clean and easy way would be to slot him in where Martin is. There is a possibility he could rise as high as 4-5 if he is able to lengthen out his starts to 4-5 innings at high A and continues to be as dominant and sharp as he has been. If he has another set back though 12-20 definitely seems to be a decent range for a player that will likely be a reliever, even with as good of stuff as he has. However, if ceiling is the goal as stated he may end up being your best pitching prospect in the minors, even though I would keep him below Morris, Festa, and Zebby for this year. Two other quibbles would be no Lee or Langenberg in your top 50 prospects. Beyond that it is interesting and continues to show a very deep farm system. The quality of prospects at 50 is effectively comparable to the top 30 prospects of 3-4 years ago.

All good, just enjoy the win 😉. Lots to be happy about.

Hell of a win. Also may take the edge off of absolutely needing a SP at the trade deadline. Festa definitely looked serviceable today. Hell of a game heck of a series with a lineup that had a lot of back ups in. Sounds like Correa and Miranda are getting ready to come back. We will see the status of Buxton, but he stayed on the basepaths, so likely nothing too serious. Great job Twins. Edit: Even better, X-rays negative for Buxton and it seemed like it was not bothering him at all in the clubhouse.

Pen or Starter, will wait and see. They give every player the opportunity to prove themselves at the lower levels. They see something they can work with, that is enough for me. If either a pen or starter position and starts to flash, will be worth the pick.

The rankings as a whole do not matter to me. However, what Matthews is doing deserves to be a top 5 ranking. Festa slightly below. Matthews is looking like a solid #3 type pitcher. Where it gets interesting is we now have 4 pitchers with extremely high ceilings, players could potentially be a #1 type pitcher with varying degrees on those probabilities. The least likely is Canterino, they guy has great stuff he just has been unable to stay healthy. We will go with another health issue but I honestly feel more comfortable he has turn the corner and that is Priellip. Honestly, he may have the highest ceiling of any other pitcher. If he continues to flash what he has done in his first 2 outings I don't know how you don't have him in your top 6-8 rankings. Soto, would be right there as well. A very sturdy 18 year old, that is making big strides on command and letting his above average to elite stuff start to over take games. He still is a bit hit and miss, 1 to 2 good outings followed by a clunker, but as an 18 year old more than holding his own at A ball, and if continues what has done in his last 3-4 starts, may be showing he is beginning to dominate that level. Lastly Dasan Hill. Hasn't signed yet or thrown a pitch for us, but has an elite slider with a very good fastball. He needs to add weight to his frame, but again looks to have the potential to be a high end lefty pitcher. We have plenty of other pitcher options from the 21-24 drafts. The biggest knock is we have had no #1 type pitchers in the system. If you remove Canterino, we now have a shot at potentially 3 that could hold that mantle. That is a huge accomplishment for this organization. I hope one of those 3 or another pitcher in the system can get there in the next couple year.

Its not just the ability to add the velocity, but also the perceived velocity with a release point that is closer to home plate. You also add in the pitching angle which allows for more downward movement and there are definite advantages that occur from increased height. As much as mention the Zebby effect, Ober is our best example of this strategy. I think the Twins add it into their formula of success, but its not a necessity. We have had pitchers like Varland who have been relatively successful even with a shorter stature.

After changing to a different account, I still like to come back and look at this draft. This will likely go down as one of the best drafts in Twins history, even with some misses. And at 5 years we are pretty close to having a full picture. Both Wallner and Steer appear to be solid MLB hitters that will likely have solid careers. Edouard Julien likely has the highest upside of these 3 but has struggled a bit this year. Gipson-Long, Legumina, Headrick and Varland have all had varying degrees of success. Most are fringing pitchers at the MLB level but a few may stick. Canterino, still likely has the best stuff of any pitcher the Twins picked this draft but just can't stay healthy. Holland's hit tool final showed up this year in AAA but his season was derailed by an injury at the cubs game a couple weeks ago. There is no top end talent per say, but the number of players that have played in the big leagues is truly staggering.

And sometimes Lopez looks like a #1 pitcher.

This was never going to be a draft as exciting as the 2023 draft, the high end quality of players just wasn't there and the Twins didn't have a high end pick for a potential generational talent like Jenkins. What this draft did have his 4 picks in the first 69 selections, and what the Twins have excelled at in past drafts, finding good players they can work with at pretty much any selection was still evident in this draft. Culpepper and DeBarge are not sexy picks. What they are is excellent hitters, 2 of the best hit tools in the entire draft. The Twins went with the odds that these will be 2 of the most likely hitters to make it to the big leagues. When you look at it in those terms yes its likely the right decision. Whether as trade capital or players that have a relatively good probability of making the big leagues I am very happy with that. Would have I preferred Brecht over DeBarge, yes. I still feel his potential is likely there to be a #1 pitcher. But his probabilities of success are all over the board, with a much higher probability of failure, due to injury risk, lack of command, ect. Ultimately the Twins still took a chance on a high end pitcher in lefty pitcher Dasan Hill. Like Brecht, has a nasty slider. He doesn't currently have the velocity of Brecht but is close, and with his lengthy frame, will likely have minimal difference in perceived velocity due to his extension. He is still a work in progress, but command is likely viewed better than Brechts. Ultimately if it is a pick between those 2 players I am fine with the who the Twins picked. He has about as much upside as Brecht. Billy Amick is interesting. Basically a mix of Steer and CES. There is some questions with hit tool, but it looks good enough, power looks very very good. Honestly I think the Twins feel pretty comfortable with this pick. The most interesting thing is he has been viewed as poor speed, poor defense, what has happened this year is the metrics have effectively gone neutral to begin to flash plus for both defense and speed. So if you can have potentially a CES/Steer with above average speed and defense, that becomes a very valuable player. The rest of the hitters, look solid. High OPS, decent hit tools, most with big years this last year, and at varying levels of competitive ball. The pitchers, again look solid. The peripherals maybe not quite as good as say 2022 years picks, but at this point I fully expect to hit on several of those pitchers. Will just be curious to see which one flashes. 1st Blush I am not as impressed as say 2019, 2022, 2023. Do I still think it is still a solid draft and will give us some viable pieces or trade bait, yes. Hill likely has the highest ceiling of any of the players. The next is probably Amick. Culpepper and Debarge have the highest probabilities of making the big leagues, but will they be starters or utility players or even make it to their full potential, that is the question. The rest is flyers. They have a long enough track record to trust the picks they have made. I will continue to watch as I have in prior years.

In 2017, they have had 4 players that have played in MLB 2018 - 5 players played in the MLB 2019 - they have had 7, let me repeat that 7 players that have played in MLB and that doesn't include Holland or Canterino who have a shot. Currently, the 2019, 2022 and 2023 classes appear to be the best drafts of this organization with quality and quantity. I understand the 10% is a normal rule of thumb, but it is not representative of what the Twins have done in the drafts recently.

Either they think can be an elite reliever or most likely a starter. It does seem like at the lower levels, there is no true role. Pitchers will pitch 2, 3 or 4 innings, piggybacked with another potential starter prospect. Then they begin to define more roles as they go up. I don't see the quality of pitchers of prior years. I see some size, but the k/9 pitching ratio they are usual big on, is not showing up at all. Most of these pitchers are in the 6 to 7 range.

Who says it is bad???? They did ok, not great in the 2017-2019 drafts, not great. 2020 draft is a throw away draft. They traded away most of their pitchers from the 2021 draft. The 2022 and the 2023 draft appears to be very successful at finding some quality pitchers. Several already in AA, most of the roster in high A and A ball are comprised from these 2 classes. Most likely they have 2 quality long term pitchers out of these 2 classes. In reality that is all you need. We don't need major reinforcements until 2026.

They seem to be finding enough pitching with putting minimal resources into it. They are now beginning to go for bigger swings on the pitching as well. We will see if 1 of these pitchers can become the true #1 this team needs to really be in the conversation of competing for WS.

Might be a good starting point before you want to have a conversation about something 😉.

If its chronic, don't you think it would be in the same foot? Since it is not, and not as severe as last year, Im not too worried about. Looks like a way to get correa a good rest to go into the 2nd half of the season.

Amick might be costing more than we realize and the 2 top picks might be closer to slot than we realize.

Whatever you are good at, you need to capitalize on it. Currently the Twins have a pretty good method to their madness and have been pretty successful with their strategy. I saw where they said our farm was the 3rd rated. My guess is that is with Brooks Lee still included. Now we didn't gain any huge prospect like last year. But a few of these guys will likely do well. Right now we are producing enough pitching prospects. Some years it will be like last year where 75% of the picks were pitchers, otherwise the Twins have been pretty close to 50/50 most years.

They needed more bats after taking so few last year. Yes I am hoping for 4-6 more lottery arms today, to see if they can find something usable. One other thing I was thinking about, Sam Parker was a follow and sign option as he went to Juco, it appears he didn't sign with us.

Looking at it after today, pretty clear they were trying to get some more money from early picks in day 2. Means they paid extra for Hill and probably Amick. That is ok. I would rather get 4 solid prospects and honestly that is what this looks like. The rest taken in day 2 still look like decent prospects but definitely some savings occurring there. Solid draft, nothing spectacular like last year, but solid none the less.

Great post. I mentioned pop up prospect as not on any current top list, but yes he has been a very solid hitter over his college career, where he really improved this year was a big jump in power. If he really can be a solid catcher my guess is the Twins will give him that chance, even with picking 2 others. They love positional flexibility. Will be interesting to watch his development. As I stated his stats were just as good as the other 2 FSU players taken in the first round.

Yep, for some reason looked at the wrong statistic.

Likely has 1 elite pitch they want to build around, and likely increase velocity.

In genenral we usually start going hot and heavy on pitchers starting around the 7th round. I would guess you will see several. Usually pitchers in the 7th round to 15th round is where we have found our best under the radar pitching prospects in the last several years.