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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    If it was only Dozier going through extremely prolonged stretches as a rally-killing, unwatchable mess, that would be one thing. Unfortunately, we practically field an entire team of guys who seem to go through stretches where they are automatic outs, and really ugly and stupid outs to boot. And the most exasperating part is that when Park or Buxton or Dozier or (insert next name here) make an out when they're going badly, the batboy doesn't even have to run out to fetch a bat. Yuck. I'm not a fan of Dozier. Maybe my hunches are wrong, but I don't see him as a guy who delivers the intangibles I think he and others would like us to perceive to be there. Even now, when he's hot, he's not exactly carrying the team on his back or anything. My hope is he's overrated by other GM's and that Ryan pulls off a good trade involving Dozier, either now or during the off-season. If for no other reason, to reduce the sheer volume of slump-prone hitters we're parading out to the plate. Maybe I'd change my mind if someone convinced me that he's figured out how to avoid going months at a crack as a woefully inept, strike-out prone offensive player who's absolutely frustrating to watch.
  2. bird
    So, let's look at The Cardinal's roster in the Appy league, since so many of you love to point out how much differently and better they move players along, right? "Glancing" at the first dozen or so pitchers on their roster and I discover this: A bunch of late-round pitchers, rounds 19, 18, 29, plus a FA, and a college guy from last year's 8th round repeating Appy ball. Next, I count five guys, yes five guys, who are in their 4th or 5th, yes, 4th or 5th year of pro ball, with innings counts of 196, 153, 142, 70, and 64. All more experienced than Quezeda, our lone argument for not being "pushed".
  3. bird
    Mike, in general I don't know anything compared to a lot of fans, including KLAW. Specifically, as I thoroughly described, I know some data points about this year's E-Town pitchers, and based on the practices of MOST TEAMS when it comes to these late-round college pitchers, the Twins are not operating in some unique fashion as some would like to believe. Just "glance" at the other Appy leaguee rosters. Or read last nights bios on the pitchers our E-Town veterans faced. I don't have an opinion about KLAW's past criticism because I don't know what he was looking at, but it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that even he could form an off-kilter generalization based on some rather flimsy or isolated evidence. That's why I surmised that he'd probably not be critical of what he sees with this E-Town roster. Now, it could be that KLAW believes ALL college pitchers, regardless of how much of a long shot they are, should start at A ball or higher. Can you see how another expert might disagree with that when it comes to some 25th-rounder from Western Carolina? I don't know enough to either agree or disagree with KLAW if that's what he thinks, and perhaps you do, Mike, but I can see the other side of it too. Incidentally, Lachlan Wells, age 19, has already been sent up to Cedar Rapids.
  4. bird
    I can get behind your last paragraph but not your first. If I'm the GM, I'm eating salary, or adding a piece to any trade I make to assure that the return is a low minors high-reward/high-risk prospect in every case. We don't need some other team's version of Pat Dean as a return. We should target their versions of Lewis Thorpe instead. The system is full of Jason Wheelers and DJ Baxendales and Ryan Eades and Aaron Slegers. We don't need more of them. Look for the Juan Hillmans, and stoke the fire if you have to.
  5. bird
    Thank you for correcting me. Unintentionally, your correct information strengthens the point of my post, which is that we have superior assets to Herrmann, Butera, and Doumit now available in trade, and may not have to virtually give them away. I believe this franchise is at a stage where it's a futile move to take the next Logan Darnell in return for guys like Nunez and Plouffe. If they can't secure a low-minors prospect or two with high-risk/high-return profiles, it's a bad trade.
  6. bird
    Chris Herrmann got us Daniel Palka, who some are now touting as a top 10 prospect for us. Butera got us Shawn Gilmartin. Hardy got us Hoey. (Sorry Brock, had to.) Dangle the whole damn bunch of 'em if they're over 26. Take any overpay in prospects that comes along, and reel back in the ones who will get you nothing of possible future value at the moment.
  7. bird
    Joe Mauer, pushing the peas around on his plate tonight: "You know, honey, I just hate the thought of these poor minor leaguers working for peanuts. Say, any mail from the player's union or my agent?"
  8. bird
    In looking at a very fluid roster of 14 pitchers, I see 8 of them have never thrown a pitch as a pro. All but one of the 8 is a late-round pick, Schick being the exception, our 6th round selection, age 21. Does anyone believe any of these 8 guys should be slotted somewhere besides E-Town? Of the 6 with some previous "experience", Lujan has amassed a grand total of 19 career innings, Robinson and Vasquez 12 innings apiece. Does anyone believe the Twins are misduidedly holding these 3 guys back? Robinson is the gem here, a 5th rounder. In other words, not exactly a can't miss superstar in the making. Then we have Martinez, age 19, a Venezuelan kid. Age 17 at DSL, age 18 at GCL. Not exactly old for this level, right? Next: Wells, age 19, nursing an injury perhaps, but this Aussie is likely on a fast track to the next level if he continues to develop as impressively as he has so far. To argue about his initial placement at E-Town though is to seriously quibble. Last, and probably the best case for criticism, is Quesada. He's 21, and has 64 innings under his belt. So, if one were to make a case that he might be well-served by being pushed, fine. But to make a wholesale argument that they're misguidedly placing these guys at too low of a level to start the season? Nonsense. KLAW wouldn't know what he was talking about if he offered that opinion about this group. I'm pretty sure he would not have a problem with where any of these prospects are playing to start 2016. As Seth said, it's important to know the prospect information on a case by case basis.
  9. bird
    Yeah, I've always suspected the same,especially in light of scattered "reports" that Hardy wasn't exactly a beloved figure in various clubhouses. A good GM doesn't make this trade. Period.
  10. bird
    No one disputes the Ortiz mistake. No excuses, but other teams give up on guys too, and virtually no one foresaw Ortiz's potential. Hardy and Gomez left via trades made by Billy Smith. No more need be said.
  11. bird
    tobi, thanks for digging that stuff up, it's interesting to see. It doesn't tell us much about the question of any team's prowess or ineptitude in plucking late bloomers from another team's system, or retaining their own, since almost all of the players sent packing were dispatched via trades. I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from this, although it tends to support a belief I have about the Twin's most egregious deficiency as an organization, which is that they do not have a strategic buy/sell discipline concerning their player assets. It appears to me they have no strategy, and no discipline regarding player movement, but instead simply react to circumstances that confront them. The result of this has been unacceptably poor returns, player after player, year after year. I'd argue that this single deficiency is the cause of most of their issues. I'd go a step further and suggest they are quite competent at both talent evaluation and player development, but this isn't overcoming their poor decisions on when to trade an asset and for what value.
  12. bird
    No prospect who is projected to have a front rotation ceiling lasts until the 32nd pick. Berrios is still regarded by many experts as having a mid rotation ceiling. I think the lofty expectations are due at least in part to all this talk about how Berrios has apparently cornered the market regarding work ethic, character, etc. I disagree with your assessment. Berrios would be at pretty much the same stage of development elsewhere. And if we're going to cite an example or two of players who haven't or aren't progressing at an acceptable pace (Berrios IS, IMO), then we need to explain away the many many opposite examples. Pat Dean was projected to be a non-prospect for all practical purposes. Do we maintain an awareness about how few 3rd-rounders ever see a major league pitching mound? Does a guy like that simply overcome what you think is an inept development program? Or is there a possibility that Pat Dean and Jose Berrios are actually living up to their real potential in part because of competent coaching?
  13. bird
    I believe jay is talking about real comparative analysis that might show differences in the success rates among teams when it comes to retaining and acquiring late blooming players. Your statement, while pointing to an obvious and frustrating recent string of poor results, doesn't do much to shed light on the subject.
  14. bird
    Just a suggestion: jam the left side of your bed up against the wall. That way you'll be forced to get up on the right side.
  15. bird
    Nunez has had a lot do do with that I'd surmise. For whatever reasons, Molitor seems to be really really really high on Santana's upside. Enough so to ignore the numbers. My guess is he envisions him as a long-term super-utility guy for his team. I don't know if the Arcia dump is the right decision, but I do know that I'm not gonna miss watching him "press", especially in pressure AB's. Grossman may have had more AB's in a month than Arcia got all year, but Arcia had more absolutely brainless AB's in two games than Grossman had in a month. I for one won't miss watching Arcia, but that's just me. One point about the notion that the Twins overloaded on DH types by design: they won a bid for Park, probably not a bid they expected to necessarily win. They didnt say, "hey, we need another DH type." To fault the Twins for that seems a bit two-faced, since we tend to chastise them for not doing enough of that sort of thing. So, once they got him, don't they need to find out what they have, regardless of the eventual answer? Park may flop, and Arcia may find himself, but I see the reasoning behind giving priority over Arcia to Park, and also to Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, etc. Santana? That one I don't get, but there may be some things about Arcia that we don't see and that don't make the papers, who knows?
  16. bird
    It's important to note that all of those guys were among the top 5 prospects in all of baseball. If we did an honest comparison across the league, we're just not going to see any teams regularly bringing up a bunch of less-heralded guys at age 21-22, and when they do, they tend to "transition" similarly, meaning they struggle for awhile. Pick a few random teams and check out the histories of their first and second year players, including those back in AAA. This is a league-wide thing.
  17. bird
    But they do. At a success rate pretty much the same or better than that of other organizations.
  18. bird
    Lots of conclusions could be drawn from this exercise, and most would be woefully flawed. One could to do a useful, truly comparative exercise. If we're not comparing the result against other teams, what are we learning? I'd start (but I won't) by examining a relevant and longer window of time, say 2002-2011. Then, I'd track just 6 picks from each of those drafts: the two preceding the Twin's pick and the three following it. With this limitation, we're accounting for the quality of prospects available in that particular draft at that particular stage of the draft. I'd then compare the present-day value of the Twin's pick against the other selections, probably using more qualitative criteria, i.e., in what order would a GM most likely select these six guys for his team today? Not a believer in WAR as a stand-alone-tool. This might begin to provide us a slightly more valid answer than the one we often get. The question we'd be asking? Compared to other MLB teams in a similar position, do the Twins appear to be bumbling idiots when it comes to making draft selections?
  19. bird
    He'a high school kid.
  20. bird
    Seven pitchers and seven position players taken ahead of this pick.
  21. bird
    I don't think you're making a valid assessment. I wouldn't be so quick to categorize your pals here in such black and white terms. You run the risk of unfairly labeling people as undiscerning apologists when the reality is simply that they hold a view different than your own. It's a very small minority on this board who completely trust Ryan's judgement. In other words, very few people on here do. There is a larger minority on this board who have not completely "lost faith" in his ability as a GM. I'm part of this larger minority, and yet, just like I felt about Gardy, I can get behind the idea of a change. However, just like in the case of Gardy's replacement, I think there's a real good chance Ryan's replacement won't be the cure-all some people expect, even if the replacement is a person with a solid reputation within the blogging sphere.
  22. bird
    As a Subaru-driving tree-hugger and birder (redundant, I know), I can tell you that, according to one study, the mortar hat eating is a helluva a lot bigger problem for birds than them running into a couple tall buildings, wind turbines, and stadiums in the middle of the night. But they're equally stupid things to do.
  23. bird
    And with that rather tepid roster of every day players....
  24. bird
    Kind of an aside, but I've often wondered if guys who are more active on social media, like Jake Reed, are giving us some very minor indication that they could stand being a bit more focused. I doubt there's a connection, but... I wonder too if Reed isn't nursing a low-grade physical issue. Maybe Seth can ask Dougie Baseball.
  25. bird
    Brian, so your son got over 4.0 on a scale that stops at 4.0? Now we know where sabermetrics come from. Not to mention the fact that he lives with his mother.
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