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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Yes, and if you revisited the Phillies site, even well before Revere was hurt, you could find mant fans criticizing their team for not getting an adequate return and complaining about Revere's stats. It's way too early to judge this trade.
  2. bird
    Lester Oliveros.
  3. bird
    Gotta be excited about 5 pitchers on the list, with so many other pitching prospects just off the list (Jorge Felix, Stephen Gonsalves). This is going to be fun.
  4. bird
    My bad, just clicked that the list is restricted to college prospects only. Still am not sure what we can garner from it, as no one was of the Trea Turner quality for sure.
  5. bird
    Regarding thrylos's list above: if you excluded the first ten 1st round picks each year, every single team's list of position players drafted through ten rounds of the draft from 1999 through 2011 would look pretty much identically "shocking". Not sure what the list tells us. Are position players in general are a poor gamble in the first ten rounds? Are position players that much more of a gamble than pitchers? Are the Twins especially inept at picking position players? To buy that argument, I'd have to see better support than a list in a vacuum like thrylos posted here containing no comparative info. To argue honestly in support of the last theory, you'd have to factor in and account for advantages associated with a team's draft order. A very small percentage of players drafted after the second round, by ANY team, ever see the big leagues, right? But 70% of picks 1-10 make it, 50% of picks 11-20 make it, and only 25% of picks 20-31 make it, according to the last analysis I know many of us read. (I think, by a BP contributor). The Twins had zero 1-10 first round selections over this span, and maybe a couple in the 11-20 range, right? BTW, there may be some names missing from the list. Mauer for instance?
  6. bird
    I'm not inclined to read anything into this. Teams across the league are instructing long relievers to prepare as if they were starters. If the Twins believe that Swarzak or Duensing have more than the most remote shot at being in the rotation, their FA activity seems to contradict it.
  7. bird
    I've never seen Kepler in person, and even if I had my opinion based on that would be worthless. Still, Kepler might be my pick for breakout player this season. This is based solely on all the comments about his athleticism. In an environment full of great athletes, he gets singled out as being uniquely athletic, doesn't he? Also, didn't we read something about the speed of balls hit off his bat being the best measured during the AFL? I don't think I imagined this, but...
  8. bird
    Yes. I love to hear these guys single out pitching prospects period!
  9. bird
    Very strong arguments here, hard to find issue with any of this. Please post more often!
  10. bird
    This makes sense. Jason Parks of BP claims that six of the top ten prospects are shortstops. The Twins may end up being the beneficiaries of a little trickle-down economics if Goodrum, Santana, and Polanco don't pan out at the position in the next year or so.
  11. bird
    Mod hat off: It seems to me if one is advocating a strategy that precludes "signing players that might get us to 500," that is by definition "punting the season," no? No. Signing a player to a longer-term contract (think Garza) where the immediate benefit might be enough wins to get you to .500 this season would be fine IF the probability wasn't high that the same player and contract would restrict your ability to contend two seasons later. I doubt there's a single commentor in our group that wouldn't advocate a strategy of "signing players that might get us to 500" if there was an absence of a future negative consequence, no?
  12. bird
    There are no statistics that measure the effects of injuries on a player's performance. The fact that the Twins thrust him in the AFL, where he was far from overwhelmed, might indicate that the field staff sees great potential for this kid. I'm very leery of any conclusions drawn from the stats about the comparative potential of Harrison, Walker, Vargas, and Kepler, but my bet is on Kepler based on what's been reported.
  13. bird
    In light of the reality that we signed Correia and Pelfry instead of those four, why would you ignore their production? Also, are there some remaining financial obligations to any of those four that would make it logical to wait to draw a conclusion?
  14. bird
    Provide a couple of examples where a young player represented a clear-cut improvement and I might agree with such a generalization. Castro over Bartlett comes to mind, but I'm not even sure if that decision was such a clear-cut mistake, and would still question why you'd think a bias in favor of a veteran over a youngster would represent weakness.
  15. bird
    Nice article, John. But I question your statement that the top "fact" is that the Twins were in the exact same situation last year. It seems reasonable to conclude, based on Ryan's quote here, that he might dispute this. So much of why some of us cut Ryan more slack and others are harshly critical stems from our amazing ability to see the "facts" so differently, or to create a fact set that supports our agenda. Regardless, it sure is nice to witness the "fact" that Ryan admits to having resources, admits to having opportunities, and admits to being in the right time to act.
  16. bird
    Thanks. I missed mike's point.
  17. bird
    Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?
  18. bird
    This. And not just screw ups. Other circumstances beyong the control of the GM enter into these types of cyclical downturns. OK, I'll say it again: when an organization has five dozen people working on scouting, drafting, and developing talent, how much credit or blame do you want to heap onto the GM, just because the plaque was on his desk? Stop this nonsense please. Don't try to tell me that Sano would not possibly be a Twin were it not for Smith, because that's not a true statement. Trades and signings are another story. Smith's track record in this regard is awful. Ryan's while understandably blemished by the inevitable occasional failure, is impressive. THAT is why Ryan gets praised by his knowledgable peers.
  19. bird
    Is this sarcasm?
  20. bird
    Ditto
  21. bird
    I'd imagine Hendriks frustrated his coaches. But the Twins gather every important member of their field staff every fall and assess every player, so I doubt the decision was made out of frustration. Give them a little more credit than that.
  22. bird
    Is youir point that it's logical to extrapolate these numbers into 2014? If not, what's your point here?
  23. bird
    Hardly anyone is missing the point that 2014 is "not so much". Most of us agree.
  24. bird
    Not a very good summary, mike.
  25. bird
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