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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    you make your points well, mike, and while I quibble a bit with how you select your facts, I respect your opinion and credit you for your thoughtful presentation of them. But, I'll tell you, that was sweet. mike wants wins called the Twins farm system Superb, even
  2. bird
    Just to clarify, not only is the farm system NOT terrible now, it's superb. Say it, mike. Superb. Was it BP's analysis that showed a 70%+ success rate for picks #1-10, a less than 50% rate for picks #11-20, and about 25% success for picks #21-30?Go a decade with making selections with a 25% chance versus a decade with selections given a 70% chance. So, never saying that lower picks are as easy to hit on as high picks? Can you see how that rings a bit hollow? I know it's unintentional, mike, but it obscures the reality of the situation.
  3. bird
    Again, by the more universally accepted standards, in particular farm system rankings by a dozen or so credible publications, the farm system was mediocre, mike, not terrible. But I accept the your standards are much much harsher.
  4. bird
    No, because the story's so far-fetched and outside of any universe of plausibility about how business gets conducted and budgets get discussed, Marta.
  5. bird
    I'm sorry, mike, but again, great job of selecting the criteria by which you judge their competence. A middle-of-the-road farm system at the low point of the cycle is a stronger indicator. Especially when one regards (not excuse-making!) other factors. For example, lacking surplus talent through which to replenish the system a la Span and Revere, being in the very early stages of building the organizational capacity to begin competing for international talent, injuries to the likes of Rainville, Fox, Waldrop. So yes we disagree about what factual basis one might fairly assess why the past failures resulted, and we certainly disagree about the level of prowess that was in place then and is in place now. Remember what your view of the farm system was just two short years ago, mike.
  6. bird
    The worst ranking I can recall from back the was 17th., but in any case the consensus was very clearly middle-of-the-road, not abhorrent as so often portrayed. And exactly which system would NOT look better had no prospect graduated?
  7. bird
    This is a false statement.
  8. bird
    The Rays were the myth of the past. The Cards were last year's myth. Boston is today's myth. Ther really isn't any evidence of a sustainable track record of success that can be reasonably linked to better scouting and better drafting by most teams and inferior scouting and drafting for most others. I would suggest that Boston and the Cards may be a bit better than most, including the Twins. I'll also suggest that the Brewers, Tigers, and some others are a bit worse. But I reject the notion that gets constantly promoted here that the Twins have inferior capabilities. And I reject the "well, Ryan was in charge" thing. If you're driving along and someone runs a light, causing you to t-bone them, I'm sorry, man, you were driving. You're a menace on the road. There are lots of contributing factors and the driver bears only some of the blame, right?
  9. bird
    Go out to the beyond the boxscore site. They've compiled the top 160 prospect rankings. They've then assigned values that attempt to reflect the quality of each system. Is it any wonder that most of the teams at the top of the list have benefitted from having primo draft positions for years? Most much more favorable than that of the Twins? Houston, Pittsburgh, KC, the Mets... No, the Cards are middle-of-the pack, and so are the Rays, who are viewed by many of you as possessing genius compared to the lowly Twins, right? See the pattern? With few exceptions, you can observe a correlation between high draft picks and systems with high rankings. And some of the exceptions, like Boston, may be ranked highly as much for their success spending internationally as with drafting prowess. All I'm saying is that it's absurdly simplistic and patently unfair and untrue to assign vitually 100% of the blame for a mediocre system (and it was NEVER ranked as poorly as Chicago and Detroit are now) on a GM. And it's entirely hypocritical of some of you to bash Ryan for the bad years and at best begrudgingly credit him now that the system is robust. He gets partial credit now. He should get partial blame for the past.
  10. bird
    No excuses here. I'm just encouraging people to attribute the causes fairly instead of piling on indiscriminately.
  11. bird
    No they don't.
  12. bird
    Help me out. Which part of this do you want to call bull on? That they didn't suffer from having poor draft positions year after year? Do you think there's no correlation between having top 10 draft selections and the strength of a farm system? Do you dispute the studies that show the incredible achievement gao of prospects selected #1-10 versus those selected #11-20 and 21-30? That Ryan is only partially to blame for the fairly poor results? (I'll call bull on the notion that, compared to other teams in similar situations that the results are as abysmal as you tend to describe them.) Do you put the entire blame on Ryan for all the injuries as well? Blame him, yes, but at least show a hint of fair play in the process.
  13. bird
    I don't believe the story. I think it's total bunk. And common senses does NOT tell me that.
  14. bird
    Also, the indisputable atrophy of the farm system that people like to point to as a sign of Ryan's incompetence was caused in part by factors out of a GM's control. The Twins farm system would have suffered under the watch of any GM in the business given the long string of poor draft positions, among other factors. Ryan is only partially culpable.
  15. bird
    I agree Chief. But my reaction, considering the fact that it is a big business, is "Well, duh."
  16. bird
    Again, what's your source? I call bull.
  17. bird
    Would you be willing to share the source of this story? I'm suspicious that the source might be rampant speculation on the part of contributors to TD.
  18. bird
    nick, even this is a bit of an unfair characterization. Lewin Diaz was the 10th-ranked guy. I think the year before, they signed Minier (#7?) and Silva (#22?). Asking for more than that is just not fair. Their spending history in the international market has been excellent dating back several years, and our prospect pipeline provides plenty of evidence that it was intelligent spending to boot.
  19. bird
    Either way, let's have this fact put to bed the false claims that the Twins aren't spending their allottment once again. This guy looks interesting and impressive. But it's easy to keep it in perspective by recalling that we had Aussie Rory Rhodes at one time, who was once described as having light tower power. But I love these kinds of signings because they conjure up a certain romanticism that makes you want to root for these guys.
  20. bird
    I guess I question how much of Hick's struggles were due to lack of "knowledge". We can take that math student, send him to take part in the school play, feel comfortable that he has his lines down, and then watch him step onto the big stage under the bright lights and stumble through his lines. I wonder if Hicks had a bit of stage fright. Sometimes it just takes getting used to the spotlights.
  21. bird
    Sickles' is the only one not updated from last year, I believe.
  22. bird
    Well, it was sorta like getting a big paper cut and having some jerk pour lemon it it.
  23. bird
    My son was -24
  24. bird
    That explains his struggles. And it provides some comfort that his prospects remain very good.
  25. bird
    The Sox's system is probably being slightly underrated. Part of that is because most publications opted to exclude Cuban defector Abreu and because Davidson just came over, and also because Erik Johnson somehow seems to stay in the shadow a bit. But still, it's at best a mediocre system and much worse than ours and KC's, about even with Clevelands and better than Detroit's. I think all these publicationd discount depth quite a bit and place a premium on elite talent, which makes sense.
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