mikecgrimes
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Everything posted by mikecgrimes
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I could go through every poll on Real Clear politics until I found it again, I don't really have time for that given most polls don't have 10 page reports on their data to find those details. The point is Democrats are the one's putting him over the top. Just heard it again from Joe Scarbrough as I'm typing.
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I get it you don't think it's true. Let me be really clear on this I don't care. Very few of these polls break it down in any real way but the few that have have made it clear that Trump is attracting support from non Republicans. I'm sorry that when I found this information I didn't worry that people that don't want to do their own research might consider me to be a liar because again I don't care. I'll have a prediction on Iowa in a few days. I expect to be very accurate as I usually am on those sort of things. These things are really hard to poll with any predictive power because it comes down to turnout. I can tell you who will turnout and why but if you don't want to hear that I guess we have to wait for the caucus night results. I might have a pro Cruz bias, but I know I don't have a pro Jeb Bush bias, and he's going to do very good in Iowa.
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First of all a large portion of his crowd is non supporters, you can literally hear the booing over the cheering. Second his supporters seem to be really dumb, and not the I'm sick of it I'm just voting Trump dumb but the I can't spell Caucus wouldn't know how to google when they are, and don't even think they are important dumb. I could easily see him under 15% in Iowa, then good luck convincing his supporters it isn't over, it's not like the Ron Paul crowd who showed up anyways. Another thing to keep in mind supporters of any other candidate who might be busy on caucus day will make a point of showing up to defeat him, if his supporters don't show up at well beyond average #'s he will fall short. Primary states might be a different story, but he could easily lose all the momentum out of Iowa. I also think his crowd might not be as real as it seems, when you aren't airing ads you have a lot of $50 bills lying around, and the reality is his rallies are not being held in the biggest buildings in the world, these are minor league hockey rinks and college arenas I bet you couldn't fit 8,000 people in most of these places, and that's before you make the stage way bigger then it needs to be, open up a few rows for security purposes and make sure to allow as many protesters as possible in. It wouldn't take many paid seat fillers to create the appearance of a can't miss event. Think of how he built his business, it wasn't about actually making money it was about the appearance of making money. Now that Limbaugh Glen Beck and others have turned on him it's all over.
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Polls indicate its Democrats and independents. As for the tea party there are several confused versions, but the only one worthy of being compared to the Boston tea party would oppose trump in every possible way.
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I wouldn't be so sure Trump would lose the general election. The key factor is that he would have already proved himself surviving the Republican nomination process which I had been assuming all along he had no chance but now just have my hands thrown up in the air hoping Cruz wins Iowa. Trump is bringing in more Democrats then you think, and as much as the true tea party would never vote for him, that's no different then what happened for McCain and to a lesser extent Romney. As long as Rush and Hannity don't turn on Trump he's in good shape.
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Really want to see if Bernie Sanders wants to be president tonight. Going on offense might backfire but it could also clinch Iowa and turn the race in his favor. Nothing major has to happen other then pointing out claim nton does have major flaws which will hurt her in the general.
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My thoughts based on that is that is I sure wish the Twins cared about having an ace, because that ace could be well rested for the start of the playoffs. despite calling last season almost on the # and always being an optimist at this time of the year that # is right about what I am thinking. It shouldn't be, this team should find a way to win 85 games by accident but I just have no clue what their trying to build, we only have two big weaknesses, top of the rotation pitching and a solidified bullpen, the bullpen might be fine but why not pay the price you have to pay to make sure it's fine as that player would get a chance to perform in about 60 of our closest games.
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Because I agree with the fact Sanders would be the favorite the point I was making with that was probably missed. I was saying the betting sites will consider him a slight favorite if he wins Iowa. I do think someone other then Clinton or Sanders has a reasonable shot (5%+) of being the nominee at this point.
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As I've been saying all along. Clinton is an awful candidate. Plus Democrats are ready for someone like Sanders, the rest of the country probably not, but the alternative is they have to vote Republican and Democrats might be convinced they won't. By the way since the last time I posted about this maybe 4 or 5 days ago Clinton has gone from an 80-20 favorite to a 63-37 favorite. Win Iowa and Sanders becomes the favorite.
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College sports exploits unpaid black athletes
mikecgrimes replied to gunnarthor's topic in The Sports Bar
On point one I haven't looked but if you looked at the season end top 25's for the last 3 seasons I bet we would be a lot closer to 50/50 (not including other races) then you think, starting lineups of top 10 sure, entire roster of top 25 not so much. As for the second point among college black college athletes I have to imagine the economic background is well above average for the demographic. Not all black people are poor, not all great athletes are black. It's the pro leagues that are the problem here by the way. A High School senior can sign a big money contract after being drafted in the MLB or NHL but they can't in the NBA and NFL. The argument can be made that it's unsafe for an 18 year old to be on an NFL field but the reality is maybe five 18 year olds see any major league action in Hockey and Baseball and yet they get to pay off mom and dads mortgage in dozens and dozens of cases if they want. -
Understood, that's why I said primaries and caucuses
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Might tweak my list, just saw the Bowie death and the deadline and figured it's now or never. Of course there was no chance Bowie would have made my list.
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College sports exploits unpaid black athletes
mikecgrimes replied to gunnarthor's topic in The Sports Bar
Thats already basically in place although the #'s are so low to really care. It was going to be a big deal in hockey as it was originally thought the smaller schools wouldn't be able to afford it, but at least around here it looks like every school is doing it. The point will always be that a select few athletes are bigger then the uniform they wear but probably 98% or more aren't, those 2% can stop showing up but it appears they have to good of a thing going to give it up. The last thing we need is for some middle of the road athletes who when it comes down to it have a revenue over replacement factor of zero dollars and zero cents to get together and destroy college athletics for everyone. -
I agree, but not to the extent that I don't expect minority turnout to drop significantly, you don't win elections by winning the support of the people that don't bother to vote. I hate to use this word as often as I do, but it's what decides all elections especially primaries and caucuses but it's all about turnout. Speaking of which special primary election tomorrow in the Anoka Andover Coon Rapids area. Guess what will decide that one?
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I think in a lot of ways he's flawed, but his flaws are also advantages depending on who turns out. I can't honestly say he would be the least likely to win despite the fact I would like to. The key is who didn't turnout in 08 and can Trump get them to turnout. I do feel that if Trump is the nominee we will have record turnout. If it's Clinton versus Bush Kasich or Christie I think turnout will decline significantly. I'd bet on Trump losing but it's such a crazy dynamic that I also wouldn't be shocked if Trump won big. I think the left projects what the left thinks about Republicans to much on everyone else. Of course a large segment of the public finds Republicans as bigots, but Republicans also win about half the elections in this country so either the American people sort of like bigots, or they don't consider Republicans to be bigots.
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College sports exploits unpaid black athletes
mikecgrimes replied to gunnarthor's topic in The Sports Bar
So are we paying the 3rd guy off the bench for the Gopher basketball team? What about some kid who is a healthy scratch half the time for the Alabama Huntsville hockey team. To me you either choose to play college sports or you choose not to. If your able to put on a resume that you played linebacker in the Big Ten along with decent academic success your set up to succeed. Maybe we shouldn't allow anyone to agree to a scholarship until their 18th birthday but outside of that it's a fair system. -
Current polls don't agree with this statement. Now if I really think about it I'd say Hillary has a slightly better shot then Bernie come November, but it's so close in my mind it wouldn't be a factor in my vote if I was a Democrat. Either we will have a climate where a Democrat can win or we won't, the candidate Republicans choose will be a factor but Trump throws a wildcard into that where it's not just about the moderate to conservative spectrum so going into Iowa you can't really use that as a deciding factor either. Assuming nothing unexpected happens in New Hampshire and Bernie wins big I think Iowa will probably decide this thing. As for the age thing clearly Bernie looks older, but he's also a man so his age might be less of a factor. On her worst days Clinton looks bad and she has a tough time avoiding having a worst day pop up here and there. While I understand these are all predictions I find it comical the people who think Clinton will win won't call their statement a prediction.
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College sports exploits unpaid black athletes
mikecgrimes replied to gunnarthor's topic in The Sports Bar
I agree at the highest level such as tonight but outside of maybe 10 athletes on the 10 best teams, some of them white BTW no way. Real simple solution allow paid endorsements to individual athletes, outside of title 9 issues problem solved. -
Just cause I'm to lazy at this point I'll use my list from last year with Ring Starr and Lou Nanne as replacements for the two I hit on last year.
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I'm not much of a Viking fan so that game was just fun to watch. If a game like that is going to finally go the other way for the Vikings, you probably don't want to waste it on a first round playoff game anyways.
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Turnout is a far more important factor. In any event given the new polls today and the constant reminder of how 2008 played out I am now very confident saying hillary will not win the nomination.
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It's as if being dumb and under 18 is thought of as a get out of jail free card. He said he did it, I'm sure soon after he regretted that. Cops play nice to get as much information as possible even when dealing with dumb suspects, and maybe the thought crosses his mind that they really mean it when they say he's not in trouble so he says something he thinks makes him sound smart and responsible. Most people are willing to accept that Avery might have been guilty. I get why people refuse to think the same about Dassey, but it's silly. By the way why do you think his first lawyer wanted him to admit to it? Given the result the "better" lawyer got him it seems the original lawyer was doing the right thing given the facts of the case.
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I know this is out there a bit, but the fact 12 jurors found no reasonable doubt leads me to think that the things this show didn't tell us are significant. The confession tapes were 4 hours long, this show maybe showed us maybe 10 minutes edited in any way the film maker could to make you think what they want you to think.
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There were times when it seems in proper context the truth was revealed. At the end when his own lawyer says he hope Avery was guilty it suggest to me that his lawyer thinks it's very possible he is in fact guilty. Also when his lawyer stops seeing the vile of blood on file as a winning piece of evidence it suggest he knows something other then oh darn the feds are going to screw us too. As for the assumption that the kid was not involved I understand the movie set you up to think that, and edited portions of the confession make it appear he never actually confessed to anything on his own, but it is possible these film makers used him as the hook to make Avery look innocent. I felt sorry for both of them when watching but my best guess is the verdicts were correct even if the process might have been flawed. I'd like to see the first half hour or so of his confession tapes because the truth may have been he did confess but was leaving something out and that's what the prying was all about. If he made up some of the details at that point it's great for the filmmaker but wouldn't change the facts.
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Looking at the betting sites Clinton is a heavy favorite, but nowhere near a lock. How much of 2008 was Obama and how much was Clinton? Beyond that turnout, turnout, turnout. It's so easy to flip this process, if Trump wins big in Iowa, and wins again big in the first race after some major candidates drop out would you put it past him to tell his supporters to make sure Bernie or even Martin O' Malley beat Hillary? Obama didn't need to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and as we stand today it would be no shock at all if Bernie won both. Planning on winning later works for some candidates, but I don't think Hillary Clinton is that kind of candidate, 2008 proved that.