mikecgrimes
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Everything posted by mikecgrimes
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I don't know if it would happen after Iowa or after New Hampshire, but once Bush Kasich Christie Carson and Fiorino drop out the game changes. Also the states that come in March and the distribution the way states distribute delegates favor establishment, if the establishment candidate becomes Rubio I can't complain much. Every area Rubio might fail me is an area I know Trump will fail me. If that poll is accurate Trump isn't getting a significant enough share of the vote to tell us if he has a real shot. If Trump is closer to my prediction even if he wins a close one it's not going to happen for him.
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Then the question is which candidate creates the best turnout to turn congress. I know Democrats have a good chance of significant gains no matter what. I'm having a hard time figuring who I think that would be but the fact it might be Sanders should at least be considered.
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Looks like the Trump thing was a dud even to the media who thinks he can do no wrong. As for the debate it looks like Cruz had a few misplays while Rubio was on his game. Now Iowa decides. My final prediction Cruz 32 Rubio 25 Bush 14 Trump 11. I expect great turnout with Trump lagging behind the vote totals of Santorum and Romney in 2012.
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Heres why Trump would put me over the edge. It appears this wasn't a year when Bush or Kasich was going to win. At worst we were going to get Rubio. The first Republican debate last summer was exciting because we had so many options that we could be satisfied with. Bush getting the nomination is my way of thinking losing, Trump getting the nomination is my way of thinking being stolen from. If the process brought us to that point that would be awful but to see so many party loyalist show anything resembling support for Trump before he wins a single state is disgusting.
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If Sanders wins it moves the middle. If I was a Democrat why wouldn't I want to move the middle again especially as likable as Sanders is and as unlikable as Clinton is.
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If it's just this election then the Gerrymandering would make it useless, but if we lose all faith with the Republican party then we will never be back. I wish the party would just stab him in the back by suspending the rules at the convention if he earns the nomination, but it's a lose lose situation.
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As someone who grew up voting third party this is exactly right. Just like Jesse Ventura was able to win an election Trump would be to. Just like Ventura's victory didn't mean anything and in the end his libertarian streak didn't make it's way into policy Trumps wouldn't mean anything, and his conservative streak won't find it's way into policy.
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At least in the short run nominating Trump does this. If they Republicans nominate Trump at the convention I won't vote for a single Republican on my ballot come November not even for soil and water board. I don't want to go back to voting third party as it's pretty useless, but the Republican party seems willing to decide my vote no longer matters to them.
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That might be my problem I know his stances on issues up to the last presidential election. It's possible he was both a Democrat and Republican in 2012 as he was thinking about running but it's not possible that he was not a Democrat.
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You will find out Monday that he clearly is not one of ours. The media is bending over backwards for him, but that doesn't mean Republicans will support a life long Democrat.
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From Clintons perspective beat him, from Trumps perspective win and have 4 years of fun while never bothering to pretend to be a Republican again.
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If his base was who the left and media wanted to project his base to be then of course.
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Is it even legal to make a major public "charitable" gift 3 days prior to the Iowa Caucus. I would imagine the same people that suggest Cruz might not be eligible could give Trump some good legal advice on his attempt to bribe the voters.
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I don't expect anyone to fall in line. I do think if you want to use the only ballot line the Republican party gets you better be able to make a convincing case that you are not a Democrat. This was going to be the first time ever my kind of candidate was going to have a great shot, but depending on how things go and what Trump's politics actually are the best chance to have a meaningful change of direction can be thrown away. It's one thing if a Kasich or Bush beat Cruz and Rand Paul, but for Trump to do it is hard to tolerate. Whats worse is Trump has cowards in the media eating out of his hand for now. I get that he's entertaining and you want to just let him go and say whatever he wants to say, but the 8th time you let him take over your program you would think someone would cut him off and ask a meaningful question when he started rambling on about polls. Hopefully Monday night Trump his supporters and the media get the reality check I hope for when he falls hard. I'm ready to make my prediction although Thursdays debate with or without Trump could change this. Cruz 38 Bush 16 Rubio 13 Trump 11.
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You develop your bullpen, and trade for a hot hand down the stretch. Betting big money that anyone but the elite will have a repeat above average season seems pretty foolish. Given we already have Perkins May and Jepsen we only need to really find 2 others, if your willing to go with Berrios and he meets expectations now you're down to one. You should find the other in Spring Training, but if not a minor trade can do the trick. I know you want Berrios and/or May in the rotation but the point is you can build a great bullpen without spending money and without downgrading the current rotation. If Berrios is an ace starter thats almost like an addition to the bullpen by keeping them fresh every 5th day especially when the offense does it's job, if he's not an ace starter he's probably better used in the bullpen, the same is true for May. Seeing other teams have shut down bullpens doesn't mean you have to have a shutdown bullpen. A bullpen ERA of 3 means while the Royals and Yankees give up more then zero you give up 1 from the 7th inning on, you should be able to build a roster that can make up that run elsewhere.
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No in Donald's case it's pro abortion. The difference between pro choice and pro abortion is his stance on late term abortion. There is such a thing as a pro choice Republican, but if your not willing to explain yourself as his refusal to do any interviews with people unwilling to play by his rules it is a clear indication you don't have an answer for when you stopped being a Democrat. His refusal to appear with Glen Beck was a clear indication he's never stopped being a Democrat as that was the only question he needed to answer with Beck. As long as Trump can make the rules he has nothing to fear, if he gets backed into a corner he can say 9-11 or the Vets (it's called Veterans have some respect and say the full word), and certain segments of the media will let him bully them into praising laughable displays of dishonesty.
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If the media is going to forgive him for being pro abortion and refusing to answer to it because he used 9-11 why not. I know most of his supporters think this is the right move, but he doesn't have to lose many for this to destroy him even if the media cheering section gives him a standing ovation. Trump just made his closing statement and this was it. Yes I'm a Democrat, I always have been, I always will be one, but my supporters are stupid so good luck.
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The ratings of Thursdays debate will tell the story. Strong ratings mean its not about trump but rather excitement about choosing Obama's replacement. I expect Republicans are eager for the first real debate.
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Adding the lack of taxes into play (I'm sure they would love to pay taxes, but the IRS might catch the illegal wage) it's closer to 2-1 between the under the table $10 an hour and the legally mandated $15 an hour.
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Thank you for this union and minimum wage discussion so I could be reminded why I could never support Bernie Sanders despite one of the greatest political ads I have ever seen. To review unions are not just bad but very bad for the economy, and minimum wages are meaningless (if not destructive) pandering. To understand why pass a course in econ 101, and pay very close attention to anything related to price. I should ad there is an economic argument for the opposing view, but nobody who panders has ever bothered to use it, probably because they don't actually believe it, but that's just speculation on my part.
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I support Paul, but among current contenders I prefer Cruz.
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It doesn't matter if the establishment would prefer Trump or Cruz, they don't want either. This is the play to make given that, and hey keep in mind they've been bashing Trump for months. Dole prefers Bush to Trump and that's exactly what this is about. As much as I hoped he was done Jeb Bush will come out of Iowa as the comeback kid, and as much as I don't want to predict it Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee.
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No Democrat in North East Minneapolis who thinks frozen pants are important is voting Trump, The Democrat party goes well beyond the core cities, and some of those people do have differing opinions on immigration then the pant freezers. I know it's nicer if we just go with Republicans are racist and Democrats aren't, but that's not reality. Also for what it's worth Trump would according to polls get a much greater share of the African American vote then the average Republican.
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I think we can all insult any trump supporter, that's not really the point, but yes his Democrat supporters are also stupid, his Democrat supporters are also mostly racist. And on polls posting a detailed report does not make a poll obscure, in fact every poll does it, some choose not to publish it or make it easily available.
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Agreed, which is a major reason I'm confident he will fall flat. It's important to note that polls on primaries and Caucuses are pretty worthless, about the only thing they can tell you is trends, but often times even that is missed. I don't know for sure but pollsters try to shape the results on what they think is happening and are probably adding to many non traditional Republicans into their model, that's something I can't really count on other then I know they aren't going the other way.
