mikecgrimes
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Everything posted by mikecgrimes
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It doesn't lose anything watching it the 2nd time around. I didn't love Breaking Bad like some people at least after the first season or 2, and thought there was no way this show would be anything but a goofy comedy that would last one season but it's the best show I've seen in a while and there are a lot of good shows these days.
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The problem with background checks is someone else gets to say what my background is. In theory background checks are a reasonable idea that everyone can get behind. In practice background checks destroy the 2nd admendment. With 3D printers advancing it's pointless to have this debate. As for the 2nd point why should anyone be allowed to buy 1.75 liters of hard alcohal or a 36 pack of beer, both have killed far more people that high capacity guns. I can't just write off suicides and single murders or gang violence, but considering how focused in we are on the rare mass shooting that results in maybe 1-2 deaths per month in this country it seems odd how high we prioritize this issue. I'll never own a gun I have no personal need, but only because I know many of my neighbors have guns. It might seem crazy, but things might happen where suddeny the need for guns becomes clear. Considering we are forced to buy insurance for things that might happen it would seem reasonable that some people would want to insure themselves with a gun for things that might happen.
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But it's not a tax, also Barrack Obama has never heard of Jonathan Gruber.
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Hmm? I could make more of a point, but i think Hmm and a question mark sums it up. Ah all the people who say certain things are bad at politics or just stupid in general so my point would be written off anyways. I guess it's good that this kind of stuff works for at least one side. I haven't said this in a while, it must be nice to be a Democrat.
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I bet we see a poll out today. Trump was at 38% almost a month ago, but the last two polls had him at 27 and 26. Given the candidates that have dropped out if he's not above 30 even if he wins that's not good for him heading into a caucus state as he won't be progressing towards hitting close to 50% in any state Super Tuesday (3 caucuses 9 primaries including Ted Cruz home state). I know there is still 3 weeks to go but the fact we aren't seeing any ads in Minnesota yet suggest most of these candidates can't afford to play all 12 states, I have to imagine that will be a problem for Trump as I can't see him spend upwards of a million dollars a state that would be required to make his supporters sick of winning. After Super Tuesday only one of Trump and Cruz if not zero are viable, if it's still unclear which one is more viable that's a problem. The game from the establishment standpoint is to knock Cruz out first then Trump, if it happens the other way they have a real fight on there hands. The knock out punch on Trump is easy once the field is small enough that the candidate spending money to make it knows they will see the benefit of his downfall.
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I'd bet on Bush over Kasich, but Kasich has a real chance if he can make anything more out of his second place finish. With Christie and Fiorino gone tons of moderate votes are available. Trump hit his poll #'s so in that sense I under sold him but he only got 10 of 23 delegates and unless he can gain 3% or more of the 11% that just dropped out he's not headed in the right direction. Last night proved Trump isn't in any trouble, but he still has to make things happen that I don't think he can. This race doesn't really start until 2 of the 3 remaining more moderate candidates are out.
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Will be interested to see if Christie drops out. If he does it now it would be a way of kicking Rubio while he's down by propping Bush/Kasich up. If he waits and Rubio starts to rebound Rubio could pick up a solid portion of Christie's support.
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I'd agree given the results it hurt him, and from a media and momentum standpoint it's a big deal he's not in Kasich's spot in today's race right now but given Trumps 2-1 margin of victory what difference does it make. I'm glad he slipped as it gives Cruz a solid 3rd if things hold but I think Rubio will be just fine going forward.
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Tough to say what happens. Polls put so many candidates in the 12-17 range that any consolidation put's a Trump victory at risk. It might be a lot easier to vote in a primary then to Caucus but I would still bet against Trump hitting his poll #'s. If I knew another candidate would hit 25% I would bet against Trump, but there's a decent chance Trump would still win with an awful # like 22.
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Nothing Chris Christe says matters to Republicans.
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If it wasn't a rehearsed line of attack from the guy who lost Republicans the 2012 election people might care. I wanted To see rubio fade but it just isn't going to happen.
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Looking at the latest polls and listening to the explanation from Rush Limbaugh today there was no Rubio beat down, it was just Chris Christe doubling down on a meaningless attack and his friends in the media loving it. Christies style sometimes plays well, but when you actually think about what he said it doesn't. Saying something the base agrees with multiple times is never a mistake. The fact Christe tried to bully him into not saying it might have made it seem awkward in the context of that single debate, but we aren't electing debate winners we're electing a president. Rubio might not win the nomination but there is no way Republicans will try to knock him out of the race before candidates like Christe are gone.
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Cruz should dominate caucus states as long as it looks like he still has a decent shot, but primary states may be his downfall as a great ground game can only improve turnout so much. I would put the combo of Bush/Kasich as the #3 favorite with Cruz #4, I guess for now you have to call them #4 and 5 but that will change by Super Tuesday.
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Trumps a different story because he probably has to get a lot closer to 50% of the delegate count then the typical candidate. If any other candidate after 50% of delegates have been awarded has 20% of the delegates and the next closest is 5% or more behind we will all say OK fine. If it's Trump no chance that happens. Maybe if after 75% of delegates have been awarded and he's on pace for 40% he will get the nomination, but anything less and I would say probably not. The delegate count from Iowa and New Hampshire don't amount to a ton but if he has 7 out of 53 delegates he will have significant ground to make up not to mention negative momentum. Not to mention if his clear lead in the polls doesn't prove to get results it would probably mean his support isn't strong enough to win. Right now betting sites have him at 39% I have to imagine if he loses Tuesday that drops like a rock. I would say the eventual Nominee has better then a 50/50 shot of going 0 for the first 2, and with the wild card of potentially shutting Trump out even if he has a strong lead it really could be anyone.
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Just watched Trump say he doesn't think he needs to win New Hampshire. First off if he doesn't win New Hampshire it might not be over, but it puts him in a must win position for either South Carolina or Nevada with negative momentum. Second of all given the polls there is no reason not to say you need to win unless you know something we don't. Wow this guy is an awful candidate. For a guy who has thought about running for years he sure hasn't educated himself on how politics works.
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Projecting Minnesota's Optimal Defensive Lineup
mikecgrimes replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's 1st base there has to be 50 options. If he didn't already have a spot I'd guess with a little work Buxton could be the best defensive 1st basemen as he would have every other advantage other then being a couple inches on the short side. Don't know enough about Kepler to know for sure but that was the name I was going to throw out. -
Latest New Hampshire polls have Trump anywhere from 31 to 36% with all the other candidates topping out at 17 among all the polls so even if the polls are way off Trump should still win. I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't as he just doesn't understand the game but it would be a Kasich that would have to beat him with a slight Rubio collapse so not all that exciting for me, still as a winner take all state that would be huge for keeping Trump down in the delegate count. With 3 candidates and about 7% of Iowa support now out of the race 36% isn't a great # but it is high enough that I couldn't write it off 31% is something that I won't be impressed by and the 27 or 28% I expect him to actually get is easily written off as a nice but meaningless base of support.
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Cord-Cutters are Winning? ESPN is losing?!
mikecgrimes replied to Vanimal46's topic in The Sports Bar
It would be so easy if I was a Twins fan out of state. Just about every penny of my cable bill is because of the Twins OK more like 45% Twins 45% College hockey 10% everything else. I can go long periods without watching Netflix because I binge everything I love so quickly but the fact it's always there as an option still makes it worth it -
Actually the few examples we have of this sort of thing say for better or worse it's good for business.
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Is that like saying I have a black friend? I guess I've met to many people who think being an atheist means they only have to be decent people when they want to. Agnostics are great people but people who think they have all the answers and the answer is everything is meaningless bother me, sorry.
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Not respecting someone and not tolerating them are two different things. The word bigot gets thrown around way to much. I think that's neat.
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It's not as if he has to hit even .250 to provide offensive value. If Triple A could turn him into a sure .300 hitter in the 2nd half then I would be all for it, but a few months of struggling against Major League pitching is probably more valuable at this point this point. He easily makes the team on Defense alone, and he has tons of Offensive potential, if they send him down they're being to cute.
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I'm a bigot because I have no respect for atheists? That's neat.
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It was reported on CNN 15 minutes prior to the caucus. At caucuses you are supposed to convince people to support your candidate, that's what a caucus is. I guess Carson didn't drop out he can go get 4% in New Hampshire and then figure out if he's still running. Carson campaign has been a mess and that's why this happened. Of course Cruz supporters pounced on this why wouldn't they? Bottom line Carson has no chance and Cruz does and if Carson has a problem with that he should start acting like a real candidate. It's disgusting that Carson and Trump are trying to exploit this situation. Of course Trump would but it is clear Carson has no ethics.
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This is the kind of discussion on economics I can get behind. This is a problem nobody discusses, and even fewer care to solve. We have so many solutions to things that aren't real problems and so little concern for real problems that could emerge.
