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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    The only problem is options. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options. Diamond could potentially take a swing-man role int eh bullpen. But Worley or Deduno will get claimed on waivers if they attempt to pass them through. Here's hoping Deduno gets the fifth spot, Diamond gets the swing job and Worley gets claimed by the Royals. Gibson and Meyer can fine tune in AAA all year for all I care. They lose Deduno as well if they sign Arroyo or Garza. But he might have some trade value.
  2. cmathewson
    This reminds me of the Correia signing. The Twins are looking for a bargain to fill out the back of the rotation. They think he will be better in 2014 than 2013. The bet is not entirely like roulette. It's more like poker. They have counted the cards, and they expect a good hand based on what's left in the deck. In this case, the card counting amounts to the known phenomenon of guys doing better in their second year after TJ surgery. The odds are long enough that they can make a relatively small bet and get a relatively high reward. But they also might end up needing to fold. In that event, they are hedging their bets by signing multiple guys and hoping some of them pan out. The worst case is a season like last year, when he was just good enough to make us keep betting on him by giving him innings and he wasn't bad enough to make us dump him (fold). It's like that three of a kind you have when the guy you're betting against has a full house. You just keep tossing in your chips until the hand is called and you lose.
  3. cmathewson
    Actually, the one really bad trade was at the hands of Bill Smith. If you can't get a fair trade with the best talent evaluators, you don't deserve to keep your job. As to this trade, I would not trade either Burton or Fien. Duensing would work for us, but the Rays will probably ask for someone like Thielbar, Pressley or Tonkin. I'm not sure this particular catcher is worth it. I'd rather just sign Suzuki.
  4. cmathewson
    Maestro
  5. cmathewson
    As I said, he should be better if you just factor in the second year after TJ surgery. On the other hand, he went from 20 to 152 innings in one season, with TJ in between. So he'll probably have a longish dead arm period. I think he'll be better when his arm is lively, maybe a sub-5 ERA and an even record. But is that better than Gibson? I doubt it.
  6. cmathewson
    Spilled milk. They are spending the money. And they are not done. Last year, they didn't. Not because they did't want to, in principle. But because they had very few options and a lot of competition for the talent. So they decided to give the likes of Worely and Diamond the chance. It didn't work. Not many pundits on this site called that regression. What they did pick at we're the two FA signings, ironically. Anywho, the offseason is young. They have been more aggressive this year than ever. Let's wait until Feb. to make some of these claims.
  7. cmathewson
    The only way this makes sense is if the Twins think he will be better two years removed from TJ surgery. It is a typical to have such an improvement. It's also common to have a long dead arm period the year after a huge jump in innings. So this is a big risk. But, as the saying goes, you can never have too much pitching. If he sucks, hopefully they give one of the other guys a chance, including Scott Diamond, whom you left off the list.
  8. cmathewson
    You could take the top 10 FAs for the two years by IP and FIP in their previous three years and line them up. I'm pretty sure the picture will be abundantly clear.
  9. cmathewson
    I like him about as well as AJ if he can get healthy. He should be a bargain. We might be able to get him on a minor league deal.
  10. cmathewson
    This is a really good point. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who struggled in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. In the end, he just ran out of chances to take his minor league success to the MLB. I wish him well and hope he makes the adjustments he needs to succeed in the majors.
  11. cmathewson
    The main difference between this year and last year is the depth of the free agent pitching pool. Because the class had few quality arms beyond the top two, the whole class was overvalued, by the rule of supply and demand. So lots of guys got a lot more money than they deserved, and the Twins should be credited for not going after them. At the time, Ryan was quoted as saying he thought the class was "thin", and he did not want to spend money unwisely just for the sake of spending money. It turns out he was right about this, and you can hardly argue that the FA class heading into 2013 was much better than he said it was at the time based on the stats they put up. Since this is the 46th thread about how cheap Ryan was last year, I assume I am missing something. Please enlighten me.
  12. cmathewson
    This is a great low-risk, high-reward deal. He will have to make some adjustments and not be such a dead pull hitter. But he can do it. If it means Arcia gets a bit more time to develop in AAA, all the better. Arcia has a lot of holes in his game and is still quite young. Also, I expect Doumit to get a lot more catching time in 2014 unless they sign Buck. That would free up Kubel for DH time. I much prefer Kubel to Parmelee, who has never been able to hit high cheese.
  13. cmathewson
    There's a big difference between a hard slide at second and a home plate collision. A runner cannot go out of his way to "hit" the guy turning the double play. He can slide late as long as he can still touch the bag after the slide. If not, it's technically interference. Though perhaps it is not called as often as it should be. Also, unlike a catcher, the middle infielder can throw the ball and hit the runner if he doesn't get out of the way, and it's runners' interference. All the catcher can do is hold on to the ball for dear life. In Torii's infamous collision on Jamie Burke, he was three feet away from the plate when he crushed him. He had to get up and go over to the plate after Burke dropped the ball. It was a legal play.
  14. cmathewson
    Put me in the column that says home plate collisions were the dumbest play in the game. Exciting? I suppose, but stupid. At every other base, it's runners' interference except home? The most exciting play in the NFL used to be the free shot a CB could take on a defenseless receiver. The smartest thing the NFL did was ban that. And I can say the Twins suffered as much as any franchise in this. Morneau's career was seriously disrupted by two such collisions. I wonder what might have been. In addition to the two HP collisions, the big one happened at second. But his head was already not right from the worst collision of his career, which caused a concussion and a bruised lung. The Twins lost their opportunity to have Thome moments in his only postseason with the team because of a stupid one. I could go on and on.
  15. cmathewson
    I would not want two rookies handling the pitching staff. If they don't sign Buck, Doumit will do a lot of the catching in 2014.
  16. cmathewson
    Precautionary. Also, he's had a busy year. Better let him go home and rest.
  17. cmathewson
    He does not have the secondary pitches. And his fastball is too straight. He'll clear waivers and possibly pull a Mike Trombley. But that's the best we can hope for.
  18. cmathewson
    Those were not for this many years at this age. That's the issue. i could see paying him $17 mil for four years. Not $22 mil for seven. They're almost guaranteed to throw the last three years and $66 mil down a rat hole.
  19. cmathewson
    This is a really good list. Santana might be a year away, but he progressed a lot last year. I agree on Meyer. Hopefully Salcedo is healthy again. If so, look out. Jones could move quickly, like Tonkin before him, if he keeps pitching like this.
  20. cmathewson
    Nope, just an oversight. Good catch. I can't remember when the Twins have had this much starting pitching depth. Given that, one long contract is plenty.
  21. cmathewson
    What Brock said. I was surprised at how old he is. Guys who get this kind of money typically make it big by their 25th birthday. His first above-average year was at age 27. And he's only had two above average years in his career. Here is his OPS+ for his career: 2007/23: 131 (127 PAs) 2008/24: 88 (609 PAs) 2009/25: 98 (624 PAs) 2010/26: 30 (84 PAs in injury year) 2011/27: 146 (732 PAs) 2012/28: 84 (323 PAs in injury-shortened year) 2013/29: 114 (636 PAs) Career: 108 That does not say elite player on the upswing in his career, which is the contract he got. That says above-average player in decline. And if you focus on defense, which at times has been elite, you can expect significant decline by the end of the contract. Center fielders with limited power do not fare well into their 30s because they have no place to go when their range declines. Guys like Hunter have the bat to take them to a corner. Ellsbury? Not so much. Upshot: This is one of the riskiest free agent contracts in the game. There is almost no chance the Yankees will get anywhere near the value they are investing in this player.
  22. cmathewson
    They could get someone like Arroyo to fill in for a couple of years. But Garza is a long-term investment. So, to answer this question, you need to ask another question: What does the rotation look like in three years? If we start this year with what we have right now, this is what it looks like: 2014: Nolasco Hughes Correia Deduno Gibson/Diamond 2015: Nolasco Myers Hughes Gibson Deduno/May 2016: Myers Nolasco Stewart Hughes Gibson 2017: Myers Nolasco Stewart Gonsalves Thorp And that does not take into account several other prospects like Wimmers, Summers, Melotakis, etc. who could easily develop into major league starters. Upshot: I could see a two-year deal for Arroyo here, but Garza will be blocking better talent as early as 2017.
  23. cmathewson
    I agree that the third year is a bitter pill. But it might be a situation where they need to add the third year to get him. The alternatives are pretty bad, and I don't think Pinto will be ready to start regularly next year. Even with regression, he'd be a much more valuable player than Pierzinski.
  24. cmathewson
    Pass. The Blue Jays signed the fourth best catcher on the FA market so they could trade a guy with a 59 OPS+ with questionable defensive skills. He's not even worth a 40-man roster spot, which is why Toronto is trying to trade him. Fryer is a better option.
  25. cmathewson
    I look at Salty as the replacement for Morneau. If we can get him for $10/yr., we'd be saving $5 mil over what they paid Morny last year and getting better production than Morny gave us. Also, the combo of Salty and Mauer is an upgrade defensively to Morny/Mauer. At 28, he's just entering his prime as a catcher. They could sign him and Garza at this point with the remaining money (around $25 mil). I see no reason not to do this.
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