cmathewson

I'm pretty sure the Twins don't have the bats that the 70s Orioles had. Also, the Twins don't have a rotation with Seaver, Cuellar, et al. Also, those were the days when you would win most of the games in which you scored four runs or more, because offense in the 70s was pretty anemic. In this day and age, it is tough to beat the best teams with holes in your line-up. It can be done (the Twins of the '00s showed us how). But they defied the odds.

I think Johan is an extreme long shot at this point. Not that they won't sign him. But, if they sign him, it's to spend at least a half a season getting back into a groove and the rest of the year in the bullpen. He was the first to come back and have success with that surgery. Then the Mets let him throw 138 pitches in his no-hit bid and he was effectively done. Now he has to come back from that surgery again. It would be a great story, but he's less likely than Rich harden was last year. And we all know how that turned out,

OK. I would not be averse to signing Drew. I would be excited. I wouldn't even mind giving up the second round pick, because that will be offset by their return on the Florimon trade. But I have heard rumors of Boras playing the Kyle Lohse card. So I'm not optimistic that Ryan can get it done. All I'm saying is, if he doesn't get it done, I don't think it will hurt that bad.

Well said. It is a lot easier and less expensive to upgrade the offense at other positions. I expect that to happen at positions 3, 5, 7 and 9 and 10. If they can be status quo at 6 and 8 while not losing too much at 2, a lot of the angst about the offense will go away. This is essentially the same offense that was in the top 5 in the league in 2012 (with worse offense at SS than in 2013). Last year was a larger than expected regression. This year should pendulum back, not to 2012 levels, but above average, imho. The number nine hitter will not make that big of a difference in the pendulum swing one way or another.

In the course of doing some research for this thread, I came across an incredible stat line on Anthony Swarzak: Last year he threw as many innings (96) as in 2012 while starting in five fewer games (0). His ERA was 2.91. His ERA+ was 139. He had his best year in terms of k/9 (6.4), BB/9 (2.1) and WHIP (1.15). I think it's safe to say he has found his niche. And he is way more valuable in that role than his trade value (long relievers are some of the most underrated players on a team).

Levi Michael = sad face. On Florimon, I agree with Brock that he is not likely to get better. He is probably due for regression offensively. Still, I disagree that he can be a serviceable stop gap. You have to take it in context. Shortstops are the rarest commodities. So a guy can hit .600 and be serviceable if he plays above average defense. That is what I expect from him, and I'm OK with it as long as they assemble a team around him that can win. If they sign Drew, I'm sure Florimon has some trade value, just as Butera had surprising trade value given his level of competence. Catchers aren't quite as rare as shortstops, but they're close.

His reluctance is health. They know this guy's arm better than any other pitcher on the market. They got him in the 20s in the draft because of health concerns by several scouts, stemming from a screw that is still in his elbow from an old surgery. He has defied the odds to this point to stay healthy and put up good innings totals. Signing him to a long-term deal is very risky. They would rather spend more per year and have a shorter contract to manage this risk better. Garza's agent wants a long-term deal for the very reason teams do not. That's why he is yet unsigned.

I agree. Florimon may not be the answer (short or long term), but he is a heck of a lot better answer at short than Butera was at catcher. Butera was brutal. And he was good defensively, but I always thought his defense was overrated, 'cause if you're offense is that bad and you still have a job, you must be some kind of wiz with the glove. I don't get the same sense from Florimon. He really is an elite defender.

I wouldn't say the 91 Twins had a short staff. They had four different pitchers win MLB pitcher of the month awards. That top 3 rivals any top 3 in Twins history.

Best post of the year!

The Twins wouldn't keep 13 pitchers unless they absolutely had to. They kept 13 pitchers for almost the entire second half last year. They also kept a third catcher for much of that time, because 200 pitches a game is not just hard on the pitching staff. Catchers suffer as well. That leaves a two-man bench for actual hitters. Pathetic.

If they sign Garza, I have to believe Correia gets the Nick Blackburn treatment. Recall that Blackburn was DFAed and still collected his $5 mil a year to not pitch for the Twins. Ryan said there was not much trade interest in Correia at the winter meetings. So they must be willing to eat that contract if they still want in on Garza.

You and me both (Hicks)

It will play itself out on the field. But I wouldn't want to ad more pitching at this point, unless it is a huge bargain for a clear upgrade.

Looking just at the numbers, your analysis is spot on. I like to think Santana has more upside than the numbers indicate. I base that on mostly informal scouting reports. I don't think he'll ever be a patient hitter. But he has decent contact skills and very good speed. If he can learn to slap the ball and run, he could get on base at a decent enough clip. His range is the thing that makes him a prospect. Molitor said he needs to work on focus and consistency. If he does both those things, he'll be an upgrade. He's my breakout candidate for 2014, along with Trevor May. Based on reports, I'm less optimistic that Polanco can be an above average defender at short. He has good range and very good hands. But his arm is marginal. The arm is the great equalizer over there, turning slow guys like Hardy into above-average defenders because they can play so deep.

Why in the world would they send him back to Cedar Rapids? This is his first option year. He has three. He needs to progress.

As I have said, I think he is an elite defender--the best the Twins have had since Gagne. But the Twins offense could use a boost, so, if they have a chance to upgrade offensively at the position without harming the defensive side too much, they should look at it. Therein lies the challenge. Stephen Drew would certainly be an offensive upgrade, but you give something back on defense. He seems awfully expensive for a marginal upgrade overall. And he's declining while Florimon is on the upswing. To get substantially better at the position, my sense is they would need to make a trade. And that is a tough proposition because a lot of other teams would love to have a guy named Escobar, for example, including the teams that currently employ them. They will not come cheap, if at all (think three top 10 prospects). In the unlikely event the Twins could lure one of them away at the steep price they would garner, we might only be in need of that upgrade for a year or two. According to Twins scouts, Danny Santana has the kind of upside on both sides of the ball to represent an upgrade at the position. Assuming the Twins do not make a trade or signing, Santana will likely spend 2014 at AAA and compete with Florimon in spring of 2015 for the starting job. I expect him to be the regular shortstop before the end of 2015. I don't think it's worth the price of the upgrade for one year plus, a year in which the Twins are still primarily building for the future. Better to save their prospects for that future, imo. Also, if and when Santana is ready, Florimon would be worth a lot more on the trade market if he continued to hold the position.

I wouldn't say it was lack of focus. Guys who get to more balls tend to be called sloppy because it seems like they make more mistakes. The reality is, they have the same proportion of errors to plays, they just have a lot more plays. Still, his was lack of experience showed. He struggled early with some routine plays (throwing to the wrong base, out of position to take a throw, etc.), but the more he played, the better he got with those. By the end of the season, he was a top-tier defender. Is he good enough, all things considered? I don't know. I would be more comfortable with him if the team had more offensive weapons around him. In this day and age, you can carry one guy who specializes in defense but has little to offer on offense. The Twins are looking at two (when Pinto catches) or three (when Suzuki catches) of those guys this year in one line-up.

The reason I focused just on OPS is these more granular stats are highly variable and subject to small sample issues. He hit three homers in a game, for example. That will cause a temporary spike in ISOP.

Actually, he did make some adjustments. His April was just abysmal: a .356 OPS. But May, June and July were not horrible, .707, .708, and .671 respectively. Not world beating, but with his defense, adequate. The Twins just wanted more, and sent him down to work on things. Unfortunately, he did not respond to the demotion as they hoped. So it was a lost season and he will need to start over. But he has shown resilience throughout his career. I expect him to put up an OPS of about .700 in 300 PAs or so in the majors. That's certainly not going to make the difference for the Twins.

I would not base my opinion on Kepler's upside on one scout's evaluation, especially when several other scouts rate his upside much higher. Even then, it seems to me the scout was talking about his versatility, not whether he is a future bench player. He was injured last year. The year before that, he was very good, especially as one of the youngest players at his level. Let's give him a healthy year before we give up on him, shall we?

To be clear, I don't think trading Kepler is a good idea at all. I was just responding to Thrylos' assertion that we should trade him now. Kepler is a special talent. You make room for guys like that when they're ready.

Do you really think the Twins should throw games and intentionally choose worse players so that they can get a better draft position? If so, I'm on the wrong board.

I expect a bounce back. I expect him to be above average at the plate and will above average in the field. He has the tools. He showed that, when he is not under undo pressure, he has the skills. The combination of jumping over AAA and leading off against the best rotation in the league to start the year was just too much to ask. After he started off 0-12, his confidence was shot. A fresh start will do him a world of good.

His stock is not all that high right now because of the injury. I predict his stock will be considerably higher after this year, if he stays healthy. He should bea bit of a late bloomer because of his relative inexperience in the game, sort of like Australian players.