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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    It'll be an extra full locker room to start SP. I'm guessing they erred on the side of inviting guys considering that the minor league locker room won't be ready.
  2. cmathewson
    That's bit strong. What you suggest would increase the odds of an 100-run improvement, but it neither guarantees it, nor does standing pat preclude it. If you take the two- year average of this team with what was essentially the same offense, 50 extra runs is close to regression to the mean. Add Arcia and possibly Sano and you get closer. A Hicks breakout or unexpected Kubel resurgence and you're there. It's not all that likely, but it is possible.
  3. cmathewson
    All they need is accountability. Give the Veterans Committee power to decide who gets a vote or not. Open it up to electronic media. Publish the votes on a moderated forum and let the fans have at it. Analyze the results and give it to the Veterans committee in the form of an annual report, helping them weed out the bad eggs. I also think they should have ranked-choice voting. Especially in years with a glut of good candidates, it makes the most sense. Mike Mussina doesn't deserve it less because he has Glavin and Maddux in his class.
  4. cmathewson
    Probably the same guy. Also, 20% for Mussina? WTF!
  5. cmathewson
    So the Twins might be able to get him on a two-year deal with an option? Sold.
  6. cmathewson
    I'm not a fan of fWAR for either. It places too much emphasis on defense for my taste.
  7. cmathewson
    Wait, you're saying Drew is worse against LHP than Florimon, the guy who went 1-38 against lefties to start the year?
  8. cmathewson
    Good point on Dozier. At times he was the Twins best hitter last year. It would be great if he can continue the strong hitting he had in the last four months. I just know that much of a hitters' success is based on luck, so statistically, he should regress. It's a lot better story to say he will regress from the last four months than from his whole season of stats.
  9. cmathewson
    Kevin Slowey says Hi. I know Scott Baker was 2003, but he was a good second-round pick. Also, since the team has been picking high the last two years, I have high hopes for the guys they selected in those years. And that does make a difference. The 35th pick is a lot better than the 65th pick. Or, in the age of long sandwich rounds, the 120th pick.
  10. cmathewson
    Nobody gets a TJ if it's a strained ligament. Torn, yes. And sometimes a strain leads to a tear. But all indications are, they shut him down before it got worse. I buy what LEN3 said.
  11. cmathewson
    Joe often talks about the toll catching takes on his hands. The year he won the MVP, he came in May 1 driving the ball like we've never seen him, which he attributed to "fresh hands". That is as much of a benefit to moving out from behind the plate as stronger legs, especially the way he hits. Besides Arcia, who will surely benefit from more ABs and a better understanding of the league, I look to regression to the mean. In most cases, they performed well below their career averages last year, so regression looks much more like progression. Willingham is the best example. His year was wrecked by injuries. Kubel and Suzuki also had injury-plagued years. I don't know what to make of Plouffe, but he has to be a bit better. Both Dozier and Florimon performed better than their career averages last year, so regression looks like slippage to me. Then again, I don't expect a lot from them anyway.
  12. cmathewson
    I'm with you. If Hermann was a better hitter than the fourth guy on the bench, I could see it. But there are several better hitters in camp this year. In particular, Parmelee from the left side and Ramirez from the right side.
  13. cmathewson
    I must confess, I don't see why Pinto is as bad defensively as you say, Seth. He's not great at controlling the running game. But he's adequate. He has soft hands and presents a good low target. What exactly are his defensive deficiencies?
  14. cmathewson
    Molitor said Santana was two years away at the end of 2013. Polanco is more of a second base prospect than a shortstop. Goodrum might become something, but he is still quite raw and three years seems his reasonable landing time. Drew would not block any of these guys. My chief concern with Drew is health. Perhaps they hang onto Escobar and Florimon just in case, or hope that Bartlett can be a reasonable stop gap in case of injury. But it all hinges on teh cost. You just hate having salary tied up in injured players.
  15. cmathewson
    In that I agree with you. And it appears to be the Twins' preferred course as well. But Garza wants a longer-term deal. I hope he relents.
  16. cmathewson
    Don't read into what I'm saying. You praised a guy for saying it's a simple matter of whether he's an upgrade over what we have now or not. All I said is, it's not a simple matter. If it was that simple, I'd be all for it. I'm still for it, but I can understand why the Twins have reservations. If the Twins had confidence that he'd stay healthy for the next five years, they'd have signed him by now. But they don't. And they don't want to spend $20 Mil a year for a guy who could be hurt for two of those five years. How likely is it? Likely enough to prevent his being signed by any other team. And perhaps with good reason, considering that he has a screw holding his elbow together and he's a maximum effort pitcher.
  17. cmathewson
    I think it's a bit simplistic myself. You also have to think about the long term. He could get hurt and you'd use a lot of resources on him for nothing. You also have to manage risks.
  18. cmathewson
    But they have unlimited money, so they can just sign more players!
  19. cmathewson
    I'll add to what Seth said. Late bloomers can sometimes become better players than the guys who sign at 16. But they have a shorter runway. So the odds of a 16 year old are just higher than a 20 year old, all things considered. Also, if they sign at 16, scouts really like them. If they don't sign until they're 20, chances are, they have some flaw preventing the scouts from recommending them. For me, the main thing about age/performance is ensuring that the player is ready to contribute in the MLB in his peak years--26-30. Again, the odds of a guy being able to do that are higher if he signs in his teens. But guys can sometimes beat those odds. On the other hand, it can be challenging signing 16 year olds who are slow to develop. Kepler and Polanco, for example, are great prospects. But they each took an extra year in rookie ball to develop. And they will use their first option this year. That means they must make the major leagues by 2017. Because they will most likely end the year at Fort Myers, they cannot afford injuries or other things that might delay them if we move them along a year at at time. As Seth said, if Abreu makes it to E-ton this year as a 20-year-old, he could make it to Cedar Rapids as a 21 year old, Fort Myers at 22, New Britain at 23 and Rochester at 24. At that point, if he's still a prospect, he would use his fist option, and could be available to the big club for much of his prime years. He just needs a lot of luck at this point, which is why he isn't in the prospect rankings.
  20. cmathewson
    Betemit = Batista Reynolds = Lamb
  21. cmathewson
    Buzzkill. You and your reasonable arguments.
  22. cmathewson
    Three of those guys will likely not be available for fill-in duty because they are out of options. That's why I proposed trading Correia if they sign Garza. Perhaps they can get by with him while Deduno is on the DL. But once he is ready, he is a big upgrade over Correia, as is Gibson.
  23. cmathewson
    I think Hicks ends up in RF when Buxton comes up, with Arcia moving to LF.
  24. cmathewson
    My bad. I have the bad habit of confusing Palmer with Seaver. I guess it's the All American look or something.
  25. cmathewson
    I was going to say the same thing Shane did. You don't send a kid to the AFL and then back to low A ball. And they do push top prospects regardless of whether they put up numbers at particular levels. Span, Plouffe and Parmelee, for example, got moved along despite putting up so so numbers at some levels.
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