cmathewson

It rarely makes sense to bid in a market of scarcity. It rarely makes sense to buy when the player's value is at its zenith. If both conditions hold, you should always pass.

I don't see it. You're talking about Diamond or Worley? Sure, they could be as good as Pelfrey for part of a season. But they're fifth starters on a bad team. I'd much rather take my chances on Pelfrey getting back to his good years with a healthy elbow than either of those two guys. The Twins have one slot open for either Deduno or Gibson. Deduno and could spend time on the DL. Gibson has options. They wouldn't lose either of those guys in any event. Your comment about the worse draft pick is asinine. If you polled 100 fans and asked them to choose between winning and getting a better draft pick next year, 99 of them would choose winning.

No wonder it looked so good. :-)

My problem with Diamond and Worley is their success was relatively brief and it was as good as they get. There is no upside in these two, only regression. So the argument to play for the future this year doesn't hold for them. I don't see it as much different than using the more dependable, predictable Correia. They won't be around after this year regardless of what the Twins do. So, all things considered, I'd rather have Correia. Deduno still has upside despite his age because he's just figuring out how to control his fastball. Last year, he showed how good he can be when healthy. But he will likely need some time to get his shoulder back in shape. In the mean time, it's nice to have Correia eating innings. When Deduno is healthy, the Twins will have a decision to make. I hope they choose Deduno. They might not be until around the time teams come looking for dependable starters to eat innings, which is exactly when I would trade Correia. Then there's Gibson, who will likely win the fifth starting spot out of spring training, if they go by quality alone. If they take options into account, they might give another shot to Diamond or (gulp) Worley. But Gibson will get enough innings this year to be ready for a full load next year. Still, Corriea is slotted to be the fourth starter, leaving the fifth spot for Diamond, Worley or Gibson. If it's primarily about giving Gibson chances for the future, you would say let him win the fifth spot out of Spring Training and say bye bye to the other two. It's not about Correia at that point. You can argue that keeping Gibson in AAA for a couple of months is actually good for the long-term strategy, because it delays his arbitration and lengthens team control. Now, the Twins don't play it that way. They give jobs to the guys who pitch the best in Spring Training. But if that is the way it plays out, it's good for the short term and the long term. So, you see, the logic that Correia is somehow blocking the future is faulty. When that drops away, all you have is dependability on one side of the argument and irrational hatred on the other.

Awesome! I was hoping someone would do that. I don't really think he meant to throw cutters last year. He threw good sliders and hangers. His slider was a work in progress last year because of the elbow. But it got better as the year went along. I presume the one on the right is from later in the year. The hope is that is the pitch he throws a lot more of in 2014.

We won't be able to evaluate this contract for some time. I think you articulate the risks pretty well, though I don't think the three guys you mention are worth worrying about. Hendriks is on his second team since leaving the Twins. I'm sure there will be more. Worley and Diamond are heading for a similar fate regardless of whom they sign. If he blocks Meyer, then it is a worry. Gibson is a push at this point and could become a worry in the near future. If they earn it, you make trades to make room for them. If he outperfomrs his contract, he'll be very tradeable, as will Correia, when other teams start losing starters to injury. I think Thrylos articulated the likelihood of his outperforming the contract. In short, it's pretty good. I expect him to have decent trade value throughout his contract, which is another good source of talent long term. Short term, he'll give those guys a chance to develop. To answer your question, they could gain a lot. Stable starters who eat innings don't just impact the games they pitch in but the whole pitching staff, especially the bullpen. After three years of using the #4 and #5 spots as tryouts for talent, I welcome some stability back there.

That's what I thought. I'll pass.

Left handed bullpen help is really valuable, but it's hard to get anything for it, unless it's a dominant guy who can close, like Perkins. The reason is, the bullpen is where failed starters go to save their careers, so there's a lot of them hanging around. A lot of their success or failure hinges on the way they're used and luck. So their careers tend to go through a lot of ups and downs, with teams overusing them and ultimately giving up on them, other teams picking them up and making it work, and around and around they go... I'm surprised Mijares is still out there. I'm sure he'll find a team and, if they use him right, he'll do well. Anyway, we know how to use Duensing to get maximum value out of him. For that reason, he's probably more valuable to us than any other team.

The thing we have to keep in mind with Kepler is he is young for his level. You can't compare him to some of the college kids who played in Cedar Rapids last year. He's at least two years younger than most of those guys, and those are probably the two most crucial years in the physical development of a player. I look for his power numbers to surge as he fills out. That's why I rank him higher than, say, Adam Walker.

I don't know what a "below average" rotation is. Supposing you mean "middle of the pack in WAR" or some such objective measure, I would say it will be about average. But it was far below average last year in large part because it relied on Worley and Diamond as #1 and #2. Ryan signed Correia to be the #3 starter. And he performed just a hair below average for that role. The guys who stank up the joint were Worley and Diamond. Rather than relying on them this year, Ryan signed Nolasco and Hughes. That's a bigger upgrade at those two positions than any team in baseball pulled off. So whom do you keep after that? Well, if you chose Diamond or Worley over Correia, you weren't paying attention last year. It is no exaggeration to say that Correia saved this team and this bullpen by putting up one quality start after another while Worley and Diamond were leaving with a 6-run deficit in the third inning a lot. "But, wait a minute, they were hurt!" They were not hurt. They had routine elbow clean outs. In Worley's case, it happened in September of 2012, six months prior to the season. Last spring, that surgery was reason for optimism that he could return to 2011 form. The claim was, he was hurt in 2012 and his arm would be much healthier in 2013. And it was. He just sucked. One belt-high two-seamer after another. Batting practice. He's now two years from his magical ride in which he was one of the luckier pitchers in baseball. This is called regression to the mean. Maybe he'll improve from last year. It's hard to see how he could be worse. But his upside is not nearly as good as Correia's normal. In Diamond's case, he had the surgery in December, which was plenty of time to rest, rehab and get innings. He did have a few complications in Spring Training that delayed him. But by April 15, he was as healthy as ever. He just didn't locate as well as he had in 2012, when he was in some kind of lucky groove. To think he'll ever return to that groove is whishful. GMs get fired for wishful thinking. Unlike last year, Ryan planned on Diamond's regression to the mean this year. Good for him. If Diamond doesn't make this team, he has about a 50/50 chance of clearing waivers and staying with the team. I like those odds. After those two, the Twins have options, and it does no harm to use them. This is all much ado about nothing.

I agree. If Kubel is anywhere near what he was two seasons ago, he will win the DH job. 12 pitchers, 13 position players. Here's is my starting 9, as of now: Presley (unless Hicks beats him out) 8 Dozier 4 Mauer 3 Willingham 7 Kubel 10 Plouffe 5 Arcia 9 Pinto 2 Florimon 6 Backup C: Suzuki Util: The winner of Escobar/Bartlett Fourth Outfielder: The winner of Maestro/Ramirez 25th man: ???? So who are the options for the 25th man? It all depends on how they all play in Spring Training. As you say, Colabello has an edge since he's the only right handed power bat on the 40-man roster. The options to use a left-handed bench bat will be limited. Parmelee is a good kid and I wish him well. But he was not a good draft choice. If he doesn't make the team and needs to be taken off the roster, no one should hang their heads. The Twins did everything they could to get him ready. He just didn't have the fast twitchy muscles to generate bat speed, which is one of those things built into the fiber of your DNA.

Wasn't Cruz named in the A-Rod probe? If so, did he serve his suspension yet?

It is comical to compare Morneau and Cuddyer with Parmelee. The first two were consensus top 10 prospects in baseball at one point. I don't think Parmelee ever cracked the top 100. His upside has always been limited by his slow bat, which will only slow down over time. As pitchers learn that he can't hit the high cheese, he will get a steady diet of it. In fact, he already has. In his first taste in the majors, they pitched to his strengths. Now, they pitch to his weaknesses. He's had over 550 PAs to adjust and he hasn't done it. He was sent down last year to work on making that adjustment (lay off the high cheese). He never did. Oh well. Arcia is the guy now.

You have to start somewhere. It is not comical to start with the best starter on the team last year as a building block for your rotation this year. He's still likely the fifth starter. And I could see him getting moved in June. But two months of him is not going to kill anything. You must really be happy with the rest of the team if this is your biggest concern.

I might sign one of them, but not both. Drew is a decent upgrade at a position of weakness for the Twins. He makes more sense than Morales, especially since Kubel and Willingham are really just DHs and Arcia is no great fielder himself. One prerequisite for an FA signing is fielding a position. Morales doesn't meet that criterion.

Selective reading. Early on, I wrote that he led the team in innings pitched and led all starters in WAR last year. That is not a worthless player.

He has played a lot of first base of late. At this point, he's the heir apparent to Joe Mauer.

That's not a dream, that's a fantasy. He's the cornerstone of that franchise.

The Maestro case was the only one where I felt like they delayed the inevitable and it ultimately hurt the team and the player. It is generally not a good thing to play on a broken leg. We don't know if it made it worse, but it is likely it did. Otherwise, I agree, the changes they made improved their practices.

Nobody has said they won't give him a shot. But unlike previous years, guys like Gibson will have to earn their way into the rotation. I don't have a problem with that. Does keeping Correia and signing Pelfrey make that harder? Sure. But Gibson still has just one legit starter to compete with for the fifth spot, imho. And that guy had shoulder surgery in the offseason.

He broke his ankle on a foul ball at the end of Spring Training. But they made him play on it and delayed his DL stint for a couple of weeks, calling it a "stress reaction." Finally they sent him in for surgery in late April. After he got off the DL and was sent to Rochester, he played hurt the rest of the year. Hopefully, he's healthy again. If so, he'll be added back when they have to DFA a pitcher who is out of options.

I'm sure the Twins want Hicks to win the starting center field job out of spring traing. I just can't figure out what he can do to win it. He can't play better than he did last spring. He can't play any worse than he did in April. What can he do to convince them he's ready? I doubt he can do anything in ST. It'll have to happen at Rochester.

I think they'll give Hicks another shot. But I didn't think it would be right out of ST.

You have to earn your way in this game. Last year's audition showed that Gibson still has some stuff to work on. A few months in AAA won't hurt him. It probably will help him. The worst thing that could happen at this stage is to give him the job and let him fail again. If he dominates in AAA, they'll make room for him.

I don't know where you took logic, but I suggest you get your money back. In logic, the conclusion should follow from the premises with no additional assumptions. I can't even begin to fill in all the assumptions it would take to make those conclusions follow from your interlocutor's premises.