cmathewson

I have rarely seen so many shake offs and trips to the mound than when Worley pitched. Anderson was beside himself a couple of times after the game when describing how Worley deviated from the game plan to use more breaking stuff, instead insisting on using number 1 almost exclusively. I'm sure for Andy, it was deja vu all over again, cause that was a sore spot with Blackburn as well.

Why would he do that? I can think of 150 million reasons why he wouldn't do it.

I'd say Pinto, Thorpe and Polanco, to go along with the others.

That was his whole year. I would be more optimistic if he actually had other pitches in his arsenal. His slider is average at best, and inconsistent. And that's pretty much it. He is Joe Mays, Carlos Silva and Nick Blackburn all rolled up in a ball. Guys like him just don't project to having long careers. Considering that the Twins have something like a surplus of starters, I don't even care if they let him go. If May doesn't work out, what looked like a great trade for the Twins will be looking like a good trade for the Philies. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.

I don't get that. The Yanks don't have infinite money. It is more than other teams, but it is finite. And his contract will limit what they do elsewhere.

I don't know as much about other teams as I should. But I saw some ugly contracts. The Ellsbury one is one of the worst I've ever seen. That set the market for position players, so the Rangers signed Choo for way over his value. It seems like the writer is basing much of the analysis on what teams spent, not on the quality of their investments. All I know is this is the best offseason the Twins have had in years. If this is a bottom 5 year, I wonder how 2008 or 2011 should be judged.

Just looking at his B-Ref file, your Worley analysis makes sense. But there are two back stories. The first is about how he gained his success in 2010 and 2011. A lot of his success was due to his unusual movement. As Parker wrote after the trade, got a lot of called third strikes on pitches he would throw at left handed hitters. Though his swinging K/9 ratio was low, he had decent K/9 rates in 2010/11 (8.3/8.1). Even in 2012, his K/9 rate was pretty good (7.2). So what happened to his K/9 rate in 2013 (4.6)? Some of it is league adjustment. If you earn your living on deception, you will have a larger than normal drop in effectiveness from the NL to the AL. Part of it was injury-related. He was pitching pretty well in 2012 until he developed bone chips, which limited his ability to throw his signature sinker with the same movement. In August, his Ks plummeted. He was shut down in September and had surgery to repair the elbow. When healthy again in 2013, he did not have the same movement on his sinker. Though he threw it in the same location a lot, he rarely got the call because it stayed inside. Will he regain that movement? I don't know. But I compare him to Nick Blackburn, who had similar success (though not through looking Ks, through ground balls) through two years of pitching. Then he developed bone chips, which limited his movement. He never regained it. Blackburn is a common story for guys who rely so heavily on the sinker. They develop elbow problems and struggle. I personally believe he can gt back some of the old magic, but I don't think 2012 is even his upside. I think he'll continue to struggle with AL hitters with his limited two-pitch arsenal. And I think he'll struggle to get the feel for his sinker back. Either way, he's a work in progress. I doubt he has the time to prove it before they have to cut him lose.

It's like the Harden signing. He'll need to get into pitching shape in the minors. He's a long shot to ever pitch again. He was the first to come back from this surgery and compete. He would be the first to ever pitch again after having it twice.

Worley's ERA+ in the last two years was 96 and 56. A rather precipitous decline from 127 in 2011. As I have said, he could rebound some. But he is not likely to be better than the others.

Brock covered the difference better than I could. But I do want to respond to your claim that I am mixing facts with opinion. Throughout this debate, I have repeatedly referred to odds and probability, not to facts or opinion. It is not a matter of opinion (or fact) that Worley or Diamond have a lower chance of success than Pelfrey or Correia. It is a matter of probability. It is unlikely that Worley will somehow find himself after two seasons of horrible pitching. I have always said it could happen, but I am not optimistic. I have been more optimistic about Diamond. But he has a very low margin for error. So, given the other options, I don't like his chances. Not that he can't won't won't do it. Just that, he is less likely than the other candidates. On the other hand, Correia has a long track record of mediocrity, which is much better than being horrible, as Diamond was last year and Worley has been for two consecutive seasons. And Pelfrey has showed enough to warrant the kind of risk the Twins are taking. He is at least more likely to have a good season than either of the two you favor. Both could fail miserably, of course. And Worley and Diamond could have a miraculous resurgence. But I don't think it's particularly likely. You are free to disagree with me. I expect you to. But please don't accuse me of confusing opinion with fact. That is a desperate rhetorical position that does you no justice.

Three thing differ about Hicks: 1. He has upside, and considerably more upside than he showed last year. 2. No one is suggesting to just give him the job for the sake of maximizing his value in the talent marketplace. 3. He has two options left. So if he does not earn it this time around, no big whoop.

I love these stories. But I understand why some don't. If you don't want to read human interest stories, consider these guys as a sign of an organization that is willing to use every channel of talent. Personally, I like the fact that they will give marginal guys a chance and let them earn their way to the majors. Yes you need to draft the Kohl Stewarts of the world. Yes you need to sign the Miguel Sanos of the world. And you also need to sign the Ricky Nolascos of the world. But you don't exclude the independent league talent out of hand. I think teams that do are missing out. The Angels used to have a closer named Brian Harvey. If memory serves, they saw him and signed him out of a softball league. He saved 126 games for them, and 177 games in his career. I know Harvey was an extreme long shot, but there was practically no risk. Worst case, he closes games in AAA for his career. But every once in a while, a guy like that can help a team win a World Series.

I think the risk is greater to give the guys another shot. If they earn it, fine. We tried giving it to them last year and that was a failed experiment. It's funny how the board has swung around to not wanting Ryan to use Pohlad's stadium money to improve the team, preferring to give second and third chances to guys with fifth starter upside. After three years of 90+ losses, you would think winning would be more important.

I don't believe it. So it's not clear to me. Elbow clean outs are routine. He had his six months before the season started to rest and rehab. Maybe he re-injured it while he was pitching relatively well in AAA. Ligament fraying is not uncommon after chips. But when he was pitching poorly in the MLB, he was healthy.

Your analysis of Hughes misses one crucial point. Yankee Stadium is the toughest place for fly ball righties to pitch. He will get better simply by having an easier home field. As Kwak said, he is inked in to the rotation to start the year. If he fails, they'll need to make a call. But not before May at the earliest. They let Worley get pounded into June last year before replacing him. And he wasn't high paid.

Albers was a good story last year. But he is one of those short shelf life pitchers who succeeds initially because of a funky delivery. When the league figured him out, he was toast. To a lesser extent, that is what guides my position on Diamond mad Worley. In the age of patient hitters, a pitcher needs at least one plus pitch to be successful long term. Control pitchers have trouble being consistent because hitters wait them out and clobber their mistakes. So why was Correia successful last year? Some of it was the hitters' unfamiliarity. He dominated early and was mediocre the rest of the time. But he did adjust late, and that is what he has done throughout his career. His ability to make adjustments sets him apart from the other two. Can they make adjustments? Sure. But they have not shown it yet.

I agree with everything, except for the part about CR. He will start the year at FM.

Good read. No Thanks. He sports a low 90s fastball and a lot of splits. His arm is due for major regression with the workload he's been through. And he's not that good. Kuroda is the best comp. Haren is his next best comp. That's not good enough to warrant the dollars and years he is about to get.

A lot of misinformation. But a great story however you slice it. He's obviously not doing this for the money. I wouldn't be surprised if he put it in a kettle on his way home from school. But I can't think of a better way to spend your time in the offseason.

He's the AAA replacement of Clement. Clement never saw the majors in 2013. If Ziegler makes it to the majors, it is a bad sign for the big club. It means someone got hurt.

And pitching horribly. It something of a slanted analysis that you're willing to discount a -1.2 WAR in 49 innings because of small sample sizes. He was horrible. Can he improve? Sure. In fact, he's likely to improve because you can't get much worse. He had such a high BABIP because he gave up one liner after another. I feared for the well being of his fielders. But he is not likely to improve enough to be better than the other candidates. I give Diamond a higher chance. But neither has enough stuff for much margin of error. We'll see how it plays out. I just think the odds are, Correia will have a better season than the other two. And none of them are likely to be around in 2015 when it matters.

According to B-Ref, here are there 2013 numbers. Worley ERA+ 56 Worley WAR -1.2 Diamond ERA+ 75 Diamond WAR -1.0 Correia ERA+ 97 Correia WAR 1.6 Pelfrey ERA + 78 Pelfrey WAR -0.3

That was two years ago. Since then, his career has spiraled down considerably.

I understand and appreciate the sentiment. But it's not his call. Part of the problem with the medical staff before the changes was a history of letting the player talk them out of what is best for the player long term. It is conceivable that he could have healed more quickly if they had shut him down the moment the medical imagery showed a fracture. By the time they shut him down, he had to have a plate installed, which limited his mobility when he returned. Thus we endured Clete Thomas for much longer than we would hope. Counterfactuals, I know. Maybe it all ends up they way it did anyway. But it was a screw up.

Actually, it does not imply anything about the quality of the contact. If it implies anything, it implies that he hit a lot of balls right at people. If someone is shown to be unusually unlucky one year, odds are, he'll be lukier the next. Combine his ill luck with his injury, and the odds are pretty good he'll put up better slash numbers in Ft. Myers, even with the league adjustments.