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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    I'm no Punto fan, but Punto >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Nishi. Nishi was quite possibly the worst player to ever don a Twins uniform.
  2. cmathewson
    My Ranking: FWIW Gagne Versailles Hardy . Cardenas Florimon . Bartlett Guzman . . Smalley . . . . . . . Castro
  3. cmathewson
    Trolling :-)
  4. cmathewson
    I would be in favor on Garza. Not sure about Drew. But yeah, as long as they have the money and they can improve the team with it, go for it.
  5. cmathewson
    Well, if they were that obsessed with getting more outfielders, they could get Revere's replacement on a minor league deal. It's not like he's all that hard to replace.
  6. cmathewson
    It used to be more common before free agency. Now, it can't be your exclusive strategy. But you can focus most of your efforts on building from within and supplement that with external players. I think that's the spirit of the poster's point.
  7. cmathewson
    I think this is a .500 team as constructed, but could get better if guys like Sano and Meyer progress faster than I expect. Next year is the year they could put something together.
  8. cmathewson
    Errors are the most deceiving way to measure defense. They are subject to all kinds of things outside the control of the player, not the least of which is the official scorer. Minor league field conditions also play a part. But, more than anything, guys who commit a lot of errors also end to lead their leagues in chances, as Santana did last year. To give you a little context, Greg Gagne had 39 errors in AA in in 1982 and 34 errors in 1983. Yet, he's widely regarded as the best defensive shortstop in Twins history.
  9. cmathewson
  10. cmathewson
    That could be. But that time is not now. Give him a second full year at the position to say definitively whether he belongs or not. Maybe he's traded or nontendered after the year. Until then, we have need for him.
  11. cmathewson
    I don't see how previous trades have any bearing on evaluating this trade. Most of the bad trades you list were perpetrated by Bill Smith, who made a lot of bad decisions. So what? Speedy guys who can slap the ball are not hard to find. Nyger Morgan just signed a minor league deal, for example. Speedy guys who can drive the ball are hard to find. I don't see a lot of evidence of his speed on the bases. Last year, he stole 16 bases and was caught 8 times. You'd think he'd be a perpetual 40-steal guy with his speed. As the saying goes, you can't steal first base. A career OBP of .324 with no power is an eighth place hitter in the NL. Also, as fast as Revere is, he struggled in the field last year from a numbers perspective. Everyone talks about the arm, which is among the weakest in baseball. But I think his jumps and routes are equally suspect. You look at his UZR and you wonder why it isn't better. I was surprised to see he had a -2.3 UZR in the field last year. Yeah he makes a lot of spectacular plays. Many of them are outrunning the ball after getting a late jump. As I said, he hit his ceiling with the Twins, which is a nice player to fill a hole until a better guy comes along. When he was drafted, the Twins were widely criticised for taking him in the first round and paying him third-round money. Most analysts thought he was a third-round guy. And that's what he is. To get this kind of return from a third-round guy is good, independent of any other deal the Twins have made.
  12. cmathewson
    As others have said, most of his peripherals improved. His ERA went down from 4.87 to 4.5 while his BABIP went up from .292 to .329. Predictably, his FIP went down from 4.88 to 3.79. His K rate went up from 22.9 to 24.1%. His BB rate went down from 11.8 to 10.2%. All that happened while he was among the leaders in IP in the EL. Also, unlike the previous year, he got invited to the AFL, where he continued to improve on those peripherals.
  13. cmathewson
    You might have the stunted hope that he becomes a long reliever. Only one other poster has said that's his ceiling (hammer). I for one see a third starter as his ceiling. His floor is Matt Guerrier. He's already at his floor now. He took a step in the direction of his ceiling last year. He needs to take a couple more steps to realize it. I'd bet on him doing that if I could. Also, Revere has a pretty low ceiling himself. Ryan traded him after he reached it. At the time, he got the Phillies fourth starter and the # 2 prospect in their system. That is a good trade. As many have said, the jury is still out on who won. But it will always be a good trade on paper.
  14. cmathewson
    Yep. that's what it should be, but too often it's set up as a competition. I guess part of that is the perpetual roster turnover on this team.
  15. cmathewson
    I just hope they don't pay too much attention to spring training results. It seems like every time they have a competition in spring training, the winner is the guy who got hot in March and is due for a regression in April or May. Aaron Hicks is the most obvious example, but something like this happens every year, it seems.
  16. cmathewson
    I don't think it's useful to draw these comparisons. Suffice it to say, Buxton + Sano > Mauer + Morneau at the same points in their careers.
  17. cmathewson
    He could end up with Willingham's job next year, at about the same production. It's especially important in this stadium to have hitters like Plouffe around. He has shown flashes of greatness (June 2012). It would be nice to see more consistency. It's up to him. WAR is only problematic from a defensive perspective, in the sense that there are two different definitions: bWAR (Baseball Reference) and fWAR (Fangraphs). Both have their issues, because the defensive metrics upon which they are based are not definitive. For example, it's entirely possible that two third basemen will have very different WARs primarily because one has a good shortstop next to him and the other has a bad shortstop. Still and all, those problems are mostly due to small samples. Over the long haul, the best stats we have are pretty accurate measuring sticks of players at their positions.
  18. cmathewson
    That wasn't my point. My point is, Ryan nontendered Ortiz and he improved greatly afterwards. If Ryan had nontendered Ploufe and he had improved, Ryan would be caught making the same mistake, not of the same magnitude, but the same type.
  19. cmathewson
    Plouffe has had a positive WAR two years in a row, so, by definition, he was not a weak spot, where you define "weak spot" as at or below replacement level. The Twins had two positions with negative WAR last year, which they have not addressed. Yet, people are obsessed with a position with positive WAR. And is he that weak? He is closer to average at his position than replacement level. His OPS+ was 106 and 94 in his first two seasons at the hot corner. So he's teetered on either side of average at his position (100 is average). If you want a good comp, consider Garret Atkins, who had a career OPS+ of 100. He wasn't as good a defender as Plouffe, but few people thought to get rid of Atkins after his first full season at the position with an OPS+ of 93. BTW, in his next three seasons, Atkins proceeded to give the Rockies almost 10 WAR. So it's not out of the question for Plouffe to progress this year. People forget that this is just his second full season at the position. At 27, he's entering his prime. I expect progression. Getting rid of him now would be selling low. After going through David Ortiz nontender, I don't think Ryan wants to make that mistake again. Is there room for improvement at third? Sure. Not in the current Twins organization at this time. Could they have upgraded the position externally? Doubtful. Besides, why upgrade a position externally that you plan on upgrading internally within the next season? Anyway, you don't get rid of an average player at a position who's cheap without a better backfill waiting in the wings.
  20. cmathewson
    I would be shocked if they send Santana back to New Britain. Also, comparing Santana to Polanco is difficult. If Polanco can stay at short, he's the better prospect. But most scouts say he doesn't have the arm. Because true shortstops are the rarest of ball players, I'd have to rate Santana above Polanco, slightly. BTW Thrylos, I see what you did ther: Comparing Santana to Florimon and Polanco to Jeter. Both comparisons are quite unfair, IMHO.
  21. cmathewson
    Yes. Funny. He only has one good eye. It's amazing he has been able to play as long as he has.
  22. cmathewson
    I agree. It's telling they didn't add a veteran lefty reliever, as they normally do. Several were available, but they preferred to stick with Duensing and Thielbar. I don't like Albers as a reliever. Ibarra has a chance, but not until he proves it in AAA. Darnell is another option later in the year, I suppose, as are Kennedy and Gilmartin.
  23. cmathewson
    I think he'll sign with the Yankees as soon as the A-Rod thing is settled in court. If they want to avoid the luxury tax, they can't have both contracts. But once A-Rod's contract is off the table, they'll sign Drew to play second base.
  24. cmathewson
    This. Last year, the Philies got more WAR than the Twins, obviously. This year, it could be a wash. Next year, I expect the pendulum to swing the Twins way. There is a bit of a timing problem. We sure could have used Revere in the outfield last year. But he is not the long-term solution. So when the Phillies offered that deal, we could not pass it up, regardless of short-term needs. I don't recall anyone on this board who thought the Phillies got the better of the deal when it was made. It just didn't go as well as hoped, yet.
  25. cmathewson
    I don't understand it at all. I had a guy go off on me on Twitter when I suggested the non-tender thing was a dumb idea. He became the biggest troll I've ever encountered on the Internet about it. I had to ask Twitter to suspend him. It seems, he'd rather have nothing than a positive WAR player at the position. What does getting rid of guys like that accomplish, unless it's to make room for someone who is clearly ready and clearly better? Sano is not clearly ready. Romero projects at replacement level at best. All getting rid of Plouffe does is save the Twins money and makes them worse. The same people who want to non-tender Plouffe also rant about how cheap the Twins are. They have no clue about how inconsistent those two positions are.
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