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Physics Guy

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  1. I wouldn't be opposed to this, but they need to show they are close to ready in Spring Training. I'd prefer they give Plouffe 3B and Hicks CF to start the season. Once Sano and Buxton prove they are healthy and get their feet under them I wouldn't be opposed to bringing them up.
  2. Unless Gibson can increase his K rate, I'm not sure he can become elite. He needs to develop an offspeed pitch he can get K's with. Radke struck out guys at a higher rate earlier in his career at a time when guys didn't strike out much. Being that he is already 27, I'm not sure how much upside he has from here. He can be a solid #3, with #2 upside if he can develop an "out" pitch.
  3. I think it might be wise for the Twins to explore both Sano and Plouffe in the OF this year. There are still doubts that Sano can stick at 3B, so why not try him in RF a bit. Plouffe has worked to become a solid 3B. I really want nothing to do with trading Plouffe until we are sure Sano can play 3B at a reasonable level. If Plouffe or Sano appear to be satisfactory in RF, I say we could do a Sano/Arcia platoon. Plouffe appears to have improved his splits to the point where he is not a liability against RHP. Sit Sano against the best RHP and Arcia against the better LHP. Plouffe or Sano could play RF when Arcia sits. Depending on whether Vargas maintains his level from this year, there may also be AB's at DH. That being said, I doubt this would come into play until June at the earliest with Sano missing the entire season. He needs to play winter ball and show he is ready coming into Spring Training.
  4. Agree completely. I honestly would be fine with either, just hope they try to add a pitcher to the rotation that is better than what they have.
  5. My preference is to go after one of the pitchers from Washington or Cincinnatti. I think that means Gio Gonzalez or Matt Latos. Of those two, I would prefer Gonzalez. His salary structure would fit well with the Twins, but I suspect he would cost us a bunch of prospects. Would a package of Polanco, Rosario and Gonsalves be enough? Would you be willing to give that up. I would still rather they go after Lester/Scherzer/Shields in FA than give up prospects. I'm not sure Ryan is willing to pay what it take to get one of those three. The three years Gio has left would be more palatable financially, but would cost a handful of prospects.
  6. Iwakuma has a $7M option that the Mariners would be crazy not to pick up.
  7. While I can't see any possibility of this happening, Stanton is absolutely the kind of player you trade a ton of prospects for. Sano, Arcia, and a couple of guys in the 10-20 range for prospects would be fine by me. You are trading two POTENTIAL 30+ HR guys for Stanton, but Stanton IS a 35+ HR guy who plays good defense. I wouldn't want to trade Meyer, but with the shoulder problems he has been having I'm not sure it would be a deal-breaker for me.
  8. Sorry guys, but teams with deep pockets don't trade guys who are top 10 OPS guys at their position. Kemp was #7 for all MLB OF's who qualified for the batting title. Crawford and Ethier on the other hand could probably be had for cheap.
  9. Kennedy had a grand total of about 60 IP for the Yankees. He established himself in AZ.
  10. I'm happy with 15 HR, .750 OPS and above average defense. He might be a bit more, but maybe also a bit less. Either way he's a solid 2B.
  11. This is pretty much what I was thinking as I read through all of the posts. I'd like to see Glynn come up and work with Molitor. Molitor could use his experience on the bench. Promote Doug to AA or AAA to continue working with our top prospects. Saying that, I also wouldn't be opposed to Doug being hired.
  12. Starting 3B until somebody takes his spot from him. Valuable bench player until he slides or prices himself out of a bench spot.
  13. Download attachment: joe-benson.jpg It has been a tough offseason for many readers of Twins Daily. What started out with great promise, trades involving Span and Revere, has ended with a big thud. In the eyes of many, the Twins failed to shore up their biggest weakness from last year, the rotation. As I read thread after thread on the Twins Talk forum over the past couple of months there was a decided negativity about the direction of the Twins. Twins fans have felt that Terry Ryan did not live up to his pledge to improve the rotation. While I am disappointed that more wasn't done, I think we are in better shape now than we were at the end of the season. As they say, hope springs eternal. I am encouraged by the positivity displayed on the forum over the past couple of weeks. Maybe it is due to Spring Training.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] ESPN released a Top 100 Prospects list as well as organizational rankings that gave Twins fans something to be positive about. It's easy to get excited about these prospects, but many are years from contributing for the Twins (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler). In that vein, I thought I would put a different spin on the Top 10 Prospects list. I have put together a list of the top 10 players that I think have a chance to break in with the Twins this year. I'm stretching the term "prospect" for some of them, so bear with me. The rankings are based on probability that they can make it to the show as well as their chances of performing well. I have eliminated players who have spent significant time in the majors already such as all of the MI candidates as well as Robertson (40GP). So here goes my first blog attempt: #10) Alex Meyer - I don't see it happening this season, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. At best Meyer would be looking at a September callup. Meyer is only 3 months younger that Trevor May, but could use more seasoning. It would take a breakout season for him to get a look. #9) Chris Colabello - He will be 29 this season and is too old to truly be a prospect, but I think he stands a chance as a bat off the bench if and only if Morneau and/or Willingham get traded. It would be nice to have a RH bat with some pop to platoon with Parmelee on occasion against tough LHP. #8) Anthony Slama - Put me in the "Free Slama" camp. I still don't understand why he hasn't been given a chance. Jeff Gray gets 52 IP last year??? That being said, the Twins don't seem to think he can get big-league hitters out. I think several of Roenicke, Pressley, Swarzak, Burnett and Robertson would have to fail for him to get a chance. #7) Trevor May - He threw 100+ innings in AA ball last year. If he can find his command this year, he could push his way up the pecking order fairly quickly. He will be 23 this season and shouldn't be blocked by the retreads sitting in AAA. Meyer seems to have slightly higher upside, but May seems to be higher up the ladder at this point. #6) Caleb Thielbar - Following a solid showing in AA and AAA last year, Thielbar was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. It appears as though he has passed Slama up in the eyes of the Twins. Like Slama, it would take some bullpen issues for him to be given a chance this year. #5 Chris Herrmann - At this point we start to get to players with a reasonable chance of making it to the show. If either Doumitt or Mauer were to get hurt, Herrmann should be the replacement. If Butera were to get hurt, I would guess the Twins turn to Rivera instead. Signing Doumitt to an extension hurt Herrmann's chances this year. His OF versatility certainly helps. #4 Oswaldo Arcia - Arcia had a breakout season at AA last year and is likely close to being ready. If he were called up, he should be playing everyday. A Morneau or Willingham trade/injury or ineffectiveness/injury for Parmelee would be the likely reason. Right now he is probably blocked and should start at AAA. #3 Joe Benson - I hesitate putting Benson ahead of Arcia, since I think Arcia is the better prospect. This is more about opportunity. Benson has the ability to play CF which is open for the taking. If he can re-establish his status, he has a decent chance this year. His arm and power also play in RF which helps his cause if Mastroianni grabs the starting CF gig. #2 Kyle Gibson - Gibson would have been #1 at the end of the season. By all accounts he threw well at the end of the season, actually throwing harder than he did prior to surgery. The surgery is what will hold him back. He's as near a lock as anybody to play for the Twins this year. He just may not start the season with them to control his innings. #1 Aaron Hicks - Ladies and Gentlemen, your next CF and leadoff hitter for the Twins. Barring a major setback in Spring Training, I'd have to say he's nearly a lock to start the season with the Twins. This pick is all about opportunity. The trades made by the Twins indicate they feel he is ready. He finally started showing the potential the Twins felt he had this past summer in New Britain. His minor league numbers compare favorably to Torii Hunter with more plate discipline. Click here to view the article
  14. He's batting second until Hicks shows he can handle moving up to the leadoff spot. At least that is my guess.
  15. KLaw does not agree. I'm paraphrasing a bit, but today on his chat he basically called him an average pitcher who threw a ton of innings. Not saying I agree, just sharing what I read. Also thought I'd point out that Morris was eligible for election the year before Kirby.
  16. Parmelee isn't worth anything right now. The only way he is worth anything is by earning a spot on the roster and performing when given a chance. If not he will be gone soon enough.
  17. Nolasco Hughes Deduno Correia Gibson/Diamond/Worley/not Pelfrey Spend the money on a C or elsewhere to improve the lineup. The only way I would consider it is if Deduno is not healthy.
  18. I believe Jimenez has the option if he is traded, which he was by the Rockies.
  19. I would hope they would find a spot for Meyer if he proves he is ready.
  20. It seems a bit early for this, but I think the Twins need to be aggressive early in free agency this year. Jim Pohlad has made it clear that the bank is open if Terry Ryan decides to spend money in free agency this offseason. As John Bonnes recently wrote, the Twins could easily have $25-$30M to spend on payroll this season. Twins Daily - TwinsDaily Video: How Much Pitching Can The Twins Afford I would like to expand upon this and propose what I would like the Twins to do this offseason. I am working under the assumption that Terry Ryan will actually spend money in free agency this offseason. While this is clearly debatable, I will attempt to work within the parameters of spending less than $30M. First off, lets discuss what the Twins have currently signed for the rotation. Samuel Deduno, while finishing the season on the DL, looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Kevin Correia was certainly not a world-beater this season, but I would argue he was worth the contract he signed. I have no problem with him being our #4 or #5 starter. Kyle Gibson struggled in his first stint with the Twins but still holds promise of being a #3 or maybe even a #2. Other pitchers who started this season who could pitch in the rotation, in order of likelihood, are Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Andrew Albers. The Twins should open the 2014 season with the following rotation: #1) FA pitcher TBNL #2) FA pitcher TBNL #3) Deduno #4) Gibson #5) Correia If Deduno is not healthy, Gibson and Correia slide up and Diamond takes the #5 slot. Meyer and May could also be in the discussion, but I would rather see them start in AAA this season. As for the TBNL (to be named later) FA acquisitions, lets start by weeding out the pitchers who Terry Ryan won't sign. Matt Garza - He will most likely bring in the highest per year salary this offseason. Let's get serious here. Do we really think after last season that Ryan is going after the top of the market guy. Masahiro Tananka - While his average yearly salary might be lower than Garza's, there is this little issue of a $40-$60M posting fee. Despite what he has said publicly, I'm not sure Pohlad could stomach that. Ervin Santana - He likely gets a qualifying offer, so I doubt the Twins will want to sacrifice their 2nd rounder in a supposed deep draft. Hiroki Kuroda - At his age, I doubt he would want to sign with a rebuilding team. AJ Burnett - It sounds like he is considering retirement if he can't pitch in Pittsburgh. Tim Lincecum - He continues to regress and I can't see his body holding out much longer for a pitcher who has so much effort in his delivery. He just scares me. So, who should the Twins sign? For the #1 spot in the rotation, I have two options. My top choice would be Dan Haren and the second would be Ubaldo Jimenez. Both should be available for $10-$15M per season. At first glance, Haren had a poor season. He finished 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA. However, his FIP and xFIP were 4.09 and 3.67 and he finished with his highest K% in three years. His numbers were horrible in June, but he had an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.017 after the All-Star break. I would like to see them sign him for three years at $39-45M. While Jimenez continues to walk batters at a scary rate, he clearly figured something out this season. Like Haren, Jimenez would give us a pitcher who can actually strike batters out. Signing Jimenez would have the added impact of taking a top pitcher from AL Central rival, the Cleveland Indians. Since he is younger, I would consider giving him a four year deal maybe in the $52-$56M range. For the #2 spot in the rotation, I would go after the following pitchers in this order: Nolasco, Kazmir, Arroyo, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Scott Feldman, and Jason Vargas. Nolasco and Kazmir appear at the top of this list due to production and K rate. Nolasco is likely to receive the largest payday of this group and might approach Haren and Jimenez. I think he is likely to resign with the Dodgers. I have Arroyo ahead of Johnson due to his higher floor. I like the upside of Johson, but his injury history scares me. I would be more willing to gamble on Johnson if I knew Deduno was healthy or Meyer was nearly ready for the bigs. Phil Hughes' numbers away from Yankee Stadium give me reason to believe he needs a change in scenery. Feldman and Vargas would be acceptable fall back positions, but seem a bit similar to Correia. So idealy, the Twin start 2014 season with a rotation of: Haren, Nolasco, Deduno, Gibson and Correia. If they were to sign both Haren and Nolasco, I doubt they would have much money left to spend elsewhere on the roster. I would be fine with that. Cleary the rotation is problems 1,2 and possibly 3 for the Twins. If they don't figure it out, nothing else much matters. Hopefully Ryan learns from last years inactivity and doesn't get caught without a chair when the music stops
  21. Plouffe maybe, no way you stick Sano at 1B yet.
  22. I'd like to see a way to keep Colabello and Parmelee as a platoon 1B, part-time RF (Parms), part-time DH combo. It would give us added pop off the bench. I'm not sure this can happen unless they don't keep 3 catchers or don't keep a backup OF who can play CF. This would also assume that Escobar is the lone utility IF. The chances would be better if they deal Willingham or Doumitt.
  23. I like the idea of Wong, but I think Dozier will be fine as a stop-gap until Rosario arrives. I'd rather see SP in return. Here's what KLaw had to say in his chat today: Paul (DC) Kolton Wong...not enough upside for top-50? Klaw (1:51 PM) No, not close. Average to above-average regular ceiling. Yet, Rosario made the list. Here's the last part of KLaw's post in his Top 50 about Rosario: The former center fielder may never be above average at second, but his bat will be. Rosario's ceiling is a .290-.310 hitter with 30-35 doubles, 10 homers and 50-60 walks a year, which would make him one of the best at that position in the game.
  24. KLaw said as much in his last chat: [h=6]Klaw (1:15 PM) [/h] When the promotion was aggressive to begin with, then the leash should be shorter. But I'd never give a kid an OD job unless I was prepared to ride out a bad start for at least a month. The same applies to Brandon Maurer, who couldn't get anything down the other night, especially that slider that was so sharp in March (and last year).
  25. With Mastro being limited right now, Hicks stays in the 1 spot for awhile. If he continues to struggle in a week or two, Mastro probably gets a chance.
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