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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    After thinking about it, Colome probably can't be included in that deal. Taking on Span's contract has to be worth something as it might allow them to sign a 1B. The Twins would be giving up 3 players who would be starters for the Rays. What about swapping Romero for Garver? Rosario for Kepler?
  2. Physics Guy
    After reading John Bonnes' post regarding trade assets, I started contemplating a trade in the current environment. I would be willing to give up significant assets to get Archer, especially if we can sign a FA starter as well. TB would most likely want young SP. They also have a hole on the right side of the infield. Brad Miller was awful last year and they aren't going to pay Logan Morrison. I have to think they would like to dump Span's contract and he could still be useful for a couple of years as a corner OF. So here is my proposal: Twins get: Archer, Alex Colome, Denard Span Rays get: Kepler, Polanco, Meijia, Garver,+? If we can somehow get Darvish or more likely Cobb, we have: C - Castro, resign Gimenez? 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier SS - Escobar, Adrianza (until Gordon is ready) 3B - Sano LF - Span CF - Buxton RF - Rosario Grossman, Granite, IF? Rotation - Archer, Darvish/Cobb, Santana, Berrios, Gibson Bullpen - Rodney, Colome, Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly, Duffey, Busenitz
  3. Physics Guy
    I think this is a fair ranking of tradeable assets to the Rays. I'm OK with leaving the vets off because they won't be part of any trade for Archer. I would say Sano should be higher than Lewis. He has proven much more than Lewis and is only dinged because of health issues in my mind. The only players I wouldn't move for Archer are the top four. Any others are fair game in my opinion.
  4. Physics Guy
    But adding two sufficiently large values of 2 can give you 5. My Physics students hate that.
  5. Physics Guy
    David Schoenfield posted hsi way-too-early power rankings for next year last night: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21139850/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-offseason He has the Twins at #19, which seems way-too-low for our favorite team. He obviously thinks the Twins over-performed last year. I would have had them in the 10-12 range.
  6. Physics Guy
    Since it doesn't appear we can get appropriate value for Dozier, I would be in favor of trading Polanco if he can be a substantial piece in acquiring a pitcher at least at the Santana level. While I applaud Polanco's work at SS this year, I am still somewhat skeptical that he can remain there. He would be better served at 2B. As long as Dozier is around, Polanco won't be playing 2B. Cash him in for something we need if the feeling is that Gordon will be ready sometime in 2018. Esco and Adrianza, or a FA signing, can handle SS until he is ready.
  7. Physics Guy
    As far as having a rotation better than Boston, NYY and Cleveland, I'm not sure that is possible without major turnover throughout the roster. I think it's possible our offense can make up some of the difference. We were behind the Yankees, basically even with Cleveland and ahead of the Red Sox in scoring. With continued improvement in our younger players (nearly every starter), it reasonable that we can be one of the top two or three in the AL. If we get our pitching to allow between 700 and 750, we probably win 90+ games. Cleveland gave up nearly 100 less runs than the #2 team in the AL. What did that get them? In my estimation we just need to get in the top half of the AL to have a good chance. If this year's playoffs have shown anything, even really good pitchers can get ripped.
  8. Physics Guy
    I would be happy if the Twins signed Alex Cobb for anything at 4/60M or less. I don't think they will win the bidding war for Darvish, but they should at least make an offer. Arrieta's regression the past two years scares me. Contrary to some things I've read here, I prefer Cobb to Lynn, especially if he is the cheaper option. Their numbers appear quite similar and I prefer the pitcher who has thrown in the AL East vs the NL Central. Santana, Cobb, Berrios plus two of Gibson, Meijia, Gonsalves, Slegers is good by me. Then add 1-2 RP's.
  9. Physics Guy
    Except it was the prudent thing to do in my opinion. They took the year to evaluate the system and decide what they needed to do. The fact that they traded for Garcia during the season should be a good indicator that they realize they need to add a starter. I don't mind that they didn't spend big last year. Rich Hill was the only starter I would have contemplated and he was resigning with LA. Adding a bullpen arm is the only thing I would have done differently, and that is with hindsight.
  10. Physics Guy
    Unfortunately, too often in the past this was true. I don't think we have enough information yet to say the same of our current FO. I hope they have a different MO.
  11. Physics Guy
    Agree, it's the cost of doing business. They clear $13.8M in Santiago and Perkins. They can add Cobb or Lynn at $16M per without raising the payroll dramatically. Yes, they have others due some increases, but not dramatic ones (thinking Dozier, Gibson and some of the relievers if they choose to keep them around). A team on the upswing should be willing to take on salary to take the next step. Mauer's $23M per year is done after 2018 and Santana's 13.5 potentially as well, although I hope the $14m option in '19 is exercised. Hughes' 13.2M comes off the books after '19 as well. They have some flexibility. I'm going to ammend my earlier post, I want them to go after Darvish, Cobb and Lynn in that order. I'd be happy with any of them as an upgrade that doesn't cost us prospects. If they can't get one, then they have to find an upgrade in the trade market. I'd be willing to trade Romero or Gonsalves, but not both. I don't want to trade Gordon because he appears to be a true SS. I want to trade Dozier or Polanco since I'm not convinced Polanco stays at SS. If a Dozier trade can't be consummated, then trade Polanco. I'd have to think he performed well enough this year to raise his trade value. Dozier almost has to go to a contender whereas Polanco might intrigue a rebuilding team not wanting to take on salary.
  12. Physics Guy
    I want one SP and two relievers (inc. a closer) added to the team. Santana, FA, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and maybe May gives them some depth. Off the top of my head, here are my choices. 1). Pay what it takes to get Darvish. I doubt the Twins win the bidding. 2). Trade for Archer. I would like to see an upgrade. Romero, Polanco and a couple of prospects. Don't want to see Gonsalves or Gordon traded. Adrianza and Esco fill in until Gordon is ready. I don't think Polanco stays at SS long term. 3) Sign Cobb, 4 years/64M. He had two 3+ bWAR seasons in the AL East before his TJ surgery. 4). Sign Lance Lynn. Three years at 3+ bWAR. Like Cobb better because of AL East history.
  13. Physics Guy
    Busenitz and Hildy alone means you don't need seven new arms in the bullpen. Outside of a four game stretch in late July where he gave up nearly half of his earned runs, Rogers has been excellent. I think he was overused a bit before Hildy and Busenitz gained Molitor's confidence. I also would be OK with Belisle in the 6th and 7th innings. Would like to see them bring back Kintzler and another guy to battle for closer and 8th inning. I think two new guys could make for a pretty solid bullpen. As an aside, I don't know what to make of Pressly and Duffey. Both seem to have the velocity and secondary pitches to be successful, but I'm about done with giving them chances. Either one could be the last guy in the bullpen, but it sure would be nice if they could figure it out.
  14. Physics Guy
    So Santana, Berrios and Gibson or Meijia are the only things worth keeping? 7 new bullpen arms is pretty much the whole thing. I couldn't disagree more. I think one additional starter in the mold of Santana would stabilize the rotation and leave some room for young kids to come up. There are plenty of encouraging signs in the bullpen. I think two different pieces, specifically a shut-down closer would do the trick in the bullpen.
  15. Physics Guy
    It's not. My guess is you are referencing his ejection when Sano got tossed for yelling at the opposing dugout after hitting a home run three pitches after being thrown at. Yeah fine, no problem with that. Not sure these other two are the same. https://www.gomn.com/sports/twins-minor-league-manager-doug-mientkiewicz-was-ejected-before-first-pitch http://www.foxsports.com/other/story/managers-brawl-ejected-from-ft-myers-miracle-game-081813
  16. Physics Guy
    This should not come as a complete surprise. Falvey and Levine are cleaning house of people that don't fit what they want, which they are entitled to. It absolutely could have been handled better, but Mientkiewicz would have been bitter regardless of how it was handled. Mientkiewicz has had some run-ins with umpires in the past and I have to wonder if that had something to do with this decision.
  17. Physics Guy
    Bombo Rivera First game I ever went to at the old Met, he crashed into the LF wall making a catch and had to come out of the game. Still bitter that Mauch sat Carew that Sunday.
  18. Physics Guy
    Well, there is always the option of putting Kepler at 1B.
  19. Physics Guy
    Can I take Door #7???
  20. Physics Guy
    You sound concerned. Who have the Twins missed out on that is better than what we have?
  21. Physics Guy
    I am convinced it will come down to starting pitching. If this staff hovers anywhere near a 4.00 ERA I think they can be in the fight for a WC spot. Sano looks like he may fulfill the promise of his rookie season. Polanco is not looking overwhelmed at SS (I was doubtful). I haven't been able to watch much yet, but it seems like the OF pulls off a Web Gem on a daily basis. This beats the hell out of 0-9 to start the season.
  22. Physics Guy
    By the way, for those who are wondering about Alex Meyer. http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/angels-alex-meyer-sent-down-to-triple-a/
  23. Physics Guy
    He won't. Only two teams (KC and ChW) had fewer PH appearance than the Twins last year.
  24. Physics Guy
    vs RHP Polanco Mauer Dozier Sano Kepler Park Rosario Castro Buxton vs LHP Polanco Mauer Dozier Sano Park Kepler Buxton Rosario Gimenez
  25. Physics Guy
    Granite appears to be a Ben Revere clone. He is older than Revere with slightly higher power. Hopefully he can throw better than Revere. If so, he fits at least as a 4th OF.
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