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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Truly great? Polanco was truly great in August of 2017, with a 189 wRC+. But the rest of his MLB career has been pretty average, up until now.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    A trade return was never announced. Probably a marginal amount of cash? I'm guessing the Dodgers did it as a favor to give him an opportunity.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins felt desperate for wins the past two days? At 25-13 (now 25-15)?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess I should have also noted the sample size. It was only 736 PA for the season. 115-130 PA each month. So you'd expect to see some variation similar to player's monthly overall performance?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2018 Dodgers wRC+ with 2 outs and RISP, by month: March/April: 102 May: 26 June: 129 July: 68 August: 61 Sep./Oct.: 66 Here's the link (you have to manually change the "Group By" drop-down menu to "Month"): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=56,59,216&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&players=&filter= For the season, the Dodgers were at 75. The two worst full season marks in 2018 were BAL (57) and SFG (65).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    How often do guys spend 30 days of rehab at AAA? Seems like most guys with that expectation start at Ft Myers and work their way back up the ladder. I feel like we will either be seeing Addison Reed in MLB, or he'll go back on the shelf, much sooner than 30 days.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't understand. The trade seems largely a separate decision from whether to re-sign him, no? Otherwise, you could argue that accepting Forsythe neutralized your "opportunity gain" because it increased our risk that we'd sign him for 2019 instead. That said, it was a fine trade, in that Dozier was a low value expiring asset on a non-playoff team -- might as well cash him in. But I wouldn't count any chickens before they hatch and start awarding bonus points for the trade yet -- I've seen too many guys post minor league lines like Smeltzer and Raley and still turn out to be relative MLB nonentities.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that even Raley's wRC+ is the same at AAA as it was at AA for the Twins last year, despite an over 100 point difference in OPS. Worse than average K% and BB% and a .371 BABIP too. Edit to add: Raley did manage to go 0-for-6 in that wild 20-18, 15 HR game last month, so at least that's not boosting his numbers!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sympathetic to players in that situation, but they do get a MLB paycheck and service time while they are in DFA limbo. Even two days on waivers is worth ~$6k for a league minimum player; a full 7 day DFA could be worth ~$21k. And they get a few days warning about their possible move (as opposed to all of the players who are traded/demoted suddenly without warning), and of course a chance at another MLB roster spot. Oliver Drake wound up making a lot of money because his teams couldn't freely send him to the minors.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It feels like that should be the case -- but in this specific case, I'm not sure there's even correlation here, much less causation. Reed threw 265 pitches over the first 40 days of 2016; he threw 281 over the first 40 days of 2017. And you think we can say he was definitely overworked by throwing 270 over the first 40 days of 2018? There's nothing to suggest that 200 pitches over 40 days should be any kind of baseline, much less than 270 over 40 days is particularly egregious. There's so much randomness and noise about player performance and injuries, it's almost impossible to judge based on the kind of information we have here. Mind you, I'm not saying there's no limit, but you can't get too fine in these judgements. Egregious usage, to me, would have to be something rare -- a reliever throwing 50 pitches in a game when he hasn't done that in forever; a high-stress 40-pitch inning; some amateur throwing 130+ pitches every other day in a tournament somewhere.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That was a special kind of waivers called trade assignment waivers, and you're right, it doesn't exist anymore. July 31st is the only trade deadline day now. Those waivers never had anything to do with DFA or outrighting, though, just trades. Edit: and as Jeremy noted below, those August trade waivers were the only waivers that were "revocable". So there is no longer such a thing -- all remaining waivers are now irrevocable.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay. The post you responded to said "I guess the Twins could get international bonus money (the new PTBNL) or another flawed player without options like Tyler Austin" so I guess I assumed you were disagreeing with that take? It seemed accurate to me.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say they weren't negotiating in good faith. But they may not have wanted to give Berrios the Severino/Nola money a year ahead of schedule. They could have been looking for a bigger discount than Berrios was willing to give at this point. But Berrios might still agree to a Severino/Nola type deal if it's offered next offseason.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, I'm not necessarily advocating or predicting Adrianza getting cut either. I expect Cave will go first, and then perhaps a reliever, and that's okay.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say trash heap, but who's going to give up anything of value for him? Iglesias was 22nd in wRC+, and 15th in WAR, and he had to take a late minor league deal with the Reds. There are a few teams with poor shortstop production, but they generally have another player they'd rather invest at-bats in, than an almost 30 year old utility guy with a peak 84 wRC+, 70 ZiPS projection, and a guaranteed $1.3 mil salary. Shortstops as a whole had a 97 wRC+ last year, so while some guys wind up around 80, teams generally want to aim higher (or at least younger, or cheaper) than that. Just eyeballing the teams with below-average SS production so far in 2019 at B-Ref, I only see one where I might prefer Adrianza to their current starting personnel: Pittsburgh. But then again, Pittsburgh is also frugal, so the $1.3 mil salary might come into play, and if they know the Twins are looking to unload Adrianza, they'll probably just wait to grab him on waivers or only offer a token PTBNL. Someone else might take him off our hands as a utility player, but again they probably aren't interested in paying much for the privilege.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Javier is regarded well enough, he wouldn't go unselected in Rule 5 in any era. (Although he may have a few more obvious suitors now.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Smeltzer has been way more impressive than Raley so far. Although even then, impressive minor league pitching performances may not mean much -- remember Littell's incredible run in 2017? Until one of these players becomes a contributor at the MLB level, I am not sure anything should really change our view of the trade. (And mind you, I don't think it was a bad trade at all.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Another poster just said games was a more important factor than innings or pitches. +70 pitches over 40 days might be completely meaningless in terms of "overuse" depending on their distribution. There is so much noise and randomness, unless something is really egregious, I don't think we can confidently point to usage as much of a factor in most situations.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Right now, Javier is graded as a Future Value (FV) of 45+ at Fangraphs. The Orioles top pick in Rule 5 this year was an infielder with FV 40. Burdi was FV 40 when he was picked 3rd. Most of the guys picked in Rule 5 don't even get FV scores, which shows you their relative status as prospects! Barring some unusual collapse or injury this season, I think Javier would be a guaranteed Rule 5 selection if left unprotected, and likely the top pick. One of the rebuilding clubs would easily grab a $4 mil international signing from a few years ago at the cost of a roster spot. His checkered health history might even make it easier to stash him on the DL for a portion of the season too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The minor league portion of Rule 5 is very different. Each minor league club gets to protect a certain number of players too, in addition to the guys already protected on the MLB 40-man. Anyone viewed as remotely on the bubble for the major league Rule 5 draft would certainly be protected for the minor league portion.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    May and Hildenberger have as many game appearances in 2019 as Reed and Pressly had at this point in 2018 too. Is that meaningful? Is -2 appearances over ~40 days meaningful for Rogers? Also, I don't think anyone has a "sixth sense" about these issues, that they can divine meaning from these minor variations in usage patterns. Their conclusions are probably just following the larger narratives of the time -- that the 2018 team and Molitor were disappointing, the 2019 team is surprisingly good, etc.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Adrianza just hit the 5 year service time threshold yesterday. That effectively means his salary is guaranteed, and he doesn't have to accept a minor league assignment either even if he clears waivers. So if they wanted him off the 40-man roster, but also wanted to keep him in the organization, they should have done it yesterday. I have to imagine he would have cleared waivers. He's almost 30, with no options, and as noted, he is hitting poorly (even if it's largely a low BABIP). And he's even making more than double the minimum salary ($1.3 mil). For his career, he has 937 PA, and he's been worth 0.8 bWAR / 1.5 fWAR over that time. And almost all of that is positional/replacement adjustment -- he's -30 Rbat and only +1 Rfield compared to average.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    As of this date last year, Reed had faced 70 batters; Pressly 73. Rogers has faced 71 so far in 2019. Do you think he has been overused? I guess Rogers has 2 less appearances, so that's a few less warm-up pitches. But I'd hesitate to draw any direct lines about these usage patterns.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, but I hope not, if Kirilloff is healthy and raking. Raley looks like a variation of Daniel Palka -- not necessarily a bad player, useful under some circumstances, but not a player you should promote ahead of an elite prospect when wins actually matter.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind the International League is going through an offensive explosion right now. Raley's raw OPS of .866 there is his highest at any minor league level above rookie league so far -- but by wRC+ (his hitting relative to league), he's actually worse in 2019 (118) than he was at any level in 2017 or 2018 (129, 123, 133). A 118 wRC+ isn't bad, but from a 24 year old corner player in AAA, with a higher BABIP and mediocre K and BB rates, it's pretty marginal.
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