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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure how much Capps really helped in 2010. Between acquiring him and clinching the division, we went 35-14, and the White Sox went 22-28. In that time, Thome hit 13 HR; Mauer batted .375; our top 5 SP had ERAs ranging from 2.09 to 3.64; the Twins accumulated 13 WAR according to Fangraphs, with Capps responsible for 0.5. His performance during that time was largely indistinguishable from that of Rauch or Crain. And foreshadowing his effect on the postseason, Capps was almost a complete non-factor vs the White Sox head to head -- his 2nd save conversion vs them (after allowing a run in his first save vs. them, and blowing another save opp vs. them) came with a 3 run lead and wasn't until we were already 8 games up with only 17 to play. That's not to say we don't need pen help in 2019, of course. But Capps circa 2010 may not be the best template!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Inexpensive, only if the Nationals decide to sell non-expiring contracts.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Inspired by your updates, I thought I'd look at Twins HR/PA rates relative to MLB (non-Twin) rates. In that sense, 2019 is so far still only the 3rd best relative HR hitting season in Twins history. Here are the 5 best: 1963 +69.1% (above MLB rate) 1964 +60.6% 2019 +46.7% 1986 +36.3% 1988 +23.6% Those 1963 and 1964 seasons were crazy good HR hitting years for the Twins, relative to the league, even though they "only" finished with 225 and 221 HR, respectively -- the average teams only hit 135 and 138 those years. (The average 2019 team is currently on pace for 220 HR -- the Twins would have to hit 367 HR this year to top the 1963 team, relative to average!) And the 5 worst: 1998 -32.5% (below MLB rate) 2008 -33.3% 1996 -35.0% 2000 -39.1% 1999 -42.0% Here are our World Series years: 1987: 17.7% (8th best in Twins history) 1965: 10.9% (12th) 1991: 7.3% (16th)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are actually 2nd in the AL in innings pitched per start, just a tiny, tiny sliver behind Houston -- 5.77 vs 5.71. AL average is only 5.15. This is 2019 baseball.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although I wasn't really saying that Smith would cost great prospects -- just that the Giants probably wouldn't target a guy like Cave in return for him. I'll note that Smith's salary is lower than Familia's, and he's also left-handed, which could help his market. Also MLBTR even noted that the prospect haul for Familia seemed light, and the Mets were between GMs at the time, so maybe it's not the best benchmark: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/athletics-to-acquire-jeurys-familia.html But yeah, pure rentals ultimately shouldn't cost too much. It might come down to something like what you propose (Yunior Severino) but I wouldn't expect the Giants to jump on that deal too early, and there's no guarantee that offer would win out either (other teams could offer similar prospects to Severino, and then it would be almost a coin flip to see which prospect the Giants preferred).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't mean to say that to pick on the current FO, just remembering it as an example of opportunity cost. (I also wouldn't necessarily pick on the field staff about this -- I don't think the field staff was directing Rule 5 picks.) I'd guess the FO is learning too. This year, no Rule 5 picks, no Breslow/Belisle age veterans. Duffey and Magill (and perhaps even Harper and Morin) might be considered attempts to find the next Kirby Yates.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It was determined to be cruel & unusual punishment by the Gene(va) Mauch Conventions to make Twins fans repeatedly type "more than we got for Pressly."
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah yes, Kirby Yates. We passed on him on waivers -- twice! -- with Rule 5 pick Justin Haley still on our 25-man roster back in 2017. Who knows if we would have straightened him out like the Padres have, but I remember it as an example of the opportunity cost of rostering a Rule 5 guy.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That's all fair, and I agree.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    But it's not like a lot of teams in the past were acquiring guys in July, and then flipping them in August. The Jaime Garcia flip was pretty rare, even without the condensed time frame. Should be interesting to watch it play out, but I don't know that we'll see too much different behavior, except of course guys will have to be moved before August.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I said I'm open to the possibility. He certainly might struggle to come back right away like you say here, but your original post -- "It's reasonable to assume that Kimbrel may be late in the summer, if at all, that he is an effective reliever" -- just struck me as going a bit beyond that. I don't think it's a reasonable assumption that he might not be an effective reliever *at all* in 2019 based solely on the late start. Especially as a reliever as opposed to a starter or position player, and the different requirements and responsibilities, I question whether there's any meaningful data that could point to that assumption. (Cobb and Lynn are pretty questionable data points just among starters, much less trying to project that onto a reliever, and perhaps an elite one.) He might not be an effective reliever in 2019, but if it turns out that way I'd guess it's more of a talent/skill issue than a late start one. (Although declining talent/skill may have contributed to why he had a late start too -- a bit of a "chicken or the egg" situation!)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Mejia was 60 FV on Fangraphs preseason 2018 list, and 55 FV at the 2018 deadline. Down to 50 FV on the Padres 2019 list. (At his rate, he'll be at zero FV by 2024 ) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-22-prospects-cleveland-indians/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline-2/ I agree that I don't expect any rental RPs to cost a 60 FV prospect, but Hand and Vasquez aren't rentals. Especially considering Cleveland is our division rival, I think it would take a pretty overwhelming offer for the Twins to get Hand this year -- easily more than Francisco Mejia circa the 2018 deadline.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Nothing wrong with playing for a WC spot -- especially in a division with the Dodgers, they may never see anything better! But yeah, I expect they will re-evaluate if they fall further back. Worth noting Goldschmidt was an expiring asset -- they may not be so eager to move Ray or Bradley in 2019. Holland would probably be their top chip, reloading for 2020 (they do still have solid controlled players all around their roster).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know how reasonable this assumption is. Time seems to be proving that Cobb and Lynn were fully capable of producing those performances on their own, regardless of their late starts. I'm open to the possibility, but there doesn't seem to be enough data to support any assumptions better than a guess.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Cave also had a .363 BABIP last year. Smith is a pending FA but he is well regarded and pitching great right now. A LHP who dominates both sides. He might be the Giants best trade chip, so I think they need to aim for upside on his return. Don't get me wrong, Cave is a useful player and the Giants would benefit by having him. But they can't spend Smith to get a guy like that, or their rebuild will go nowhere -- they need to find their Cave types just like how the Twins did (DFA and minor trade situations).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Arizona was actually trying to acquire Mike Leake last week. I think they have said they are buyers, for now. Although that could change.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting comp! The 2005 White Sox certainly stayed lucky. Although it also doesn't look like there were any dominant teams standing in their way that year.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think overwhelming they'd rather target the ones they think will click, rather give any preference to an older player with options. Cave will be 27 next year, if he can't even be a 4th OF on a rebuilding team, they may as well DFA him at that point anyway.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Cave's option is really only valuable to a team that isn't selling MLB pieces, though. The Giants, for example, don't really care about Cave's options. The Phillies would, but they're not going to trade anyone that could help their MLB club soon.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, the 1998 Vikings definitively proved that OFFENSE wins championships*! * Division championships
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The Mets just extended de Grom; they just traded for Diaz, they have Syndergaard, Conforto, and Matz controlled through 2021 (and Alonso, Rosario, and McNeil even longer). They're not a perfect team, and they've got challengers in the division, but but nothing about their roster or actions suggest they are in a rebuild or close to starting one.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Ew, I hope Molitor was zero factor in the Pressly trade. (And FWIW, I seem to recall we were making changes with Pressly similar to the Astros changes, and his 2018 stat line was bearing those fruits already before the trade.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly was pretty good with the Twins in 2018. There were some articles about us working with him on the same kind of stuff Houston did too, and his last month or so with us with pretty darn great. His Astros success seems just a continuation of that process.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for putting in the work to make that list! Not sure if the Rays are "set" in the bullpen, if their bid for Kimbrel is any indication. And the Yankees and Astros might be willing to add to a strength -- they both did last year with the Britton and Pressly trades, respectively. It seems like the top contenders are rarely "set" in terms of a bullpen.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Perez was sidelined for part of 2018, but he threw 185 innings in 2017 and 198 in 2016 and did just fine in August/September those years. (Plus 165 and 167 combined majors/minors innings back in 2012 and 2013, respectively.) Even in 2018, despite missing May and most of June, he had 102 innings total and likely could have had 117 or so if not for his bullpen demotion in September. Seems doubtful he's seeing effects of overuse before reaching 65 innings in 2019. He's also had 5, 6, and 5 days of rest before each of his last 3 starts. Since he joined the rotation, only 4 of his 9 starts have been on the standard 4 days rest.
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