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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    All I know is that Danchat referenced the cortisone shot here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33539-article-twins-minor-league-report-614-blankenhorn-walk-off-winner-lifts-wahoos/?do=findComment&comment=863217 Seth referenced it here too: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33575-article-twins-minor-league-report-617-elizabethton-twins-preview/?do=findComment&comment=864583
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Perez is easily worth his modest contract, but this might overstate it. The Twins probably don't value each 1 WAR at $8 mil! But Perez still looks poised to exceed more frugal estimates too. Also, his FIP (the basis of fWAR) is his most favorable metric at the moment. His ERA and xFIP are still solid, but both worse than his FIP. Although by RA9-WAR (fWAR without the FIP?), Fangraphs still pegs him at 1.1 for 2019 which is still solid. Something based on xFIP might be similar. By bWAR, he's still only at 0.3 for 2019. Looks like B-Ref is giving him a lot of benefit from his defense -- they have the Twins, Rays, and Astros as leading the league defensively by a large margin... would be interesting to look into that too!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Why do you say "throughout his career" and then only quote stats for 2018? 2018 only represented 11% of his career innings prior to 2018. Prior to 2018, Perez had 8.8 fWAR and 6.3 bWAR in 113 starts, with a 100 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 107 xFIP-. He was still a low K guy who gave up his share of hard contact (albeit with a very favorable hitting environment as his home park) but he was much closer to an average starter than replacement level prior to 2018. It's possible that 2018 was a harbinger of him fizzling out with that approach, in which case the Twins still get some credit for altering his approach and turning him around. But it's a bit misleading to suggest 2018 was representative of his pre-Twins career.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you write the same about Danny Santana in 2015? I expect Cave can improve his 2019 numbers simply by regressing to the mean, but if you're expecting him to get back to his 2018 numbers, more playing time will not help a batter maintain a high BABIP. If anything, it's the reverse, and we're seeing some of the effects of that now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't pick on just fans here -- every national ranking dropped him, some precipitously, for the second straight year. Fangraphs from 50 FV to 40 FV. Even you and your colleagues here at TD dropped him from 3rd to 11th. And "a slow couple of months in Rochester" is kind of an understatement. A "slow couple of months" for a prospect in the minor leagues is usually an 80 wRC+, at worst, over 2 months, like how Royce Lewis started this year. Gordon had 410 PA at AAA last year, 3.5 months of full time play. And he had a *cumulative* .544 OPS over that time, or a 52 wRC+. No player in the minor leagues finished that bad, for that long, at a single level in 2018.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering that the offensive baseline is way up in the IL this year, so Gordon's .809 OPS only translates to a 103 wRC+. (The same OPS in the IL last year may have translated to a ~128 wRC+.) Still light years ahead of last year's 52 wRC+, though!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I wonder if a cortisone shot is worth it to get back in games at the AA level?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering Cave had a .363 BABIP in the majors last year, and a .396 BABIP in AAA this year. (And a .414 BABIP in his best minor league performance, 2017 at AAA.) I don't expect him to stay hitless forever, of course, but his profile seems prone to streakiness.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about blaming it on pressing. Occam's Razor says Cave is fully capable of hitting like this without any external excuse. (That's not to pick on Cave too much -- we also know he's capable of hitting better too. Every player has streaks, and it's possible Cave just looks a little streakier because of his baseline K%?) Also, I wouldn't be so sure that Cave should feel any particular pressure about his chances of getting sent down again soon. Buxton's wrist is no sure thing to be 100% in a couple days (during last night's radio broadcast, they said he swung the bat Wednesday and didn't feel good, and was going to try again Friday). And our "4th outfielder" Gonzalez, as well as our other utility guy Adrianza, are out too and not even traveling with the team right now. And even if Cave does get sent out soon, his spot on the OF depth chart still looks pretty safe so he still has a reasonable expectation of returning soon.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. MLB's list had 27 guys at 45 or above; Fangraphs only had 8. I've never really check the MLB values before -- are they just inflated overall, compared to Fangraphs?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    David Freese, .964 WPA for 2011 WS Game 6 is pretty impressive too!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It's an interesting idea, to be sure. The thing about Machado was, the Orioles had very little leverage. Zero chance to re-sign him, and zero need/interest too. Potential suitors could start out just beating the value of the comp pick. If the Machado deal is your valuation basis of your offer for Rendon, Washington is very likely to turn it down, I think. And I'm not sure if 2 years of Sano at 1B (and with arb-2 and arb-3 salaries based on him playing 3B) brings that much value either. Find another Adams, or Kendrick, or Cron? They don't really need to spend assets like rental Rendon or even Doolittle to get their 2020-2021 first baseman.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The Nationals? With his strikeouts/defense/position/health, it feels like Sano might be capped at about a 125 OPS+, 3 WAR type player right now. Maybe a team can get him to unlock more potential, but that takes time, and Sano only has 2 years of team control left after 2019. That player profile isn't bad, but for just 2 seasons of that at arb salaries for a NL team (no DH option), that's probably a light return for Rendon, no? Especially if they are also giving up the inside track at re-signing Rendon -- if they want to compete in 2020-2021, they're probably better off keeping Doolittle and doing their best to sign Rendon.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    See 2 posts above yours: Rule 6.06 (a) states that a batter is out for illegal action if, "he hits a ball with one or both feet on the ground entirely outside the batter's box." In real time, with the chalk worn away, it certainly looked like either one of Rosario's feet could have been outside of the box. He took multiple steps during the pitch!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to make excuses for him, but it was extremely late! I know my judgement wasn't good after midnight, as I was still listening to this game. And it must have seemed pretty egregious at the time -- Gladden also seemed to think he was out of the box on the radio broadcast. And it's a much different kind of call than balls & strikes too.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Extended Dance Version, hopefully? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkAE5RN_8Xs
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Balazovic will be on more of an innings limit than Duran this season. Duran threw 100 IP last year, Balazovic only 61. Also, Duran needs a 40-man spot this winter anyway, so he'd have an outside shot of getting on the MLB roster yet this season as a bullpen reinforcement.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if they were aided a bit by some poor Red Sox batter approaches as the game went to extras. Of course, the Red Sox relievers got similar benefits from a few Twins batters (but not Kepler, thankfully!). Boston's a good team and we've matched up perfectly well with them the past two nights/mornings, so that is encouraging!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Christian Vasquez beat that for the Red Sox last night / this morning (-.474), albeit while catching 15 innings. And I'd say J.D. Martinez virtually matched it (-.423).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Re: "clearly not good this year and probably next" The Nationals are currently 15th in non-pitcher wRC+, and likewise 15th in runs scored per game, ahead of their rival Phillies and Mets. (For Statcast types, they're 12th in xwOBA too.) The Nationals are 8th in starting pitcher ERA, and 4th in FIP and 5th in xFIP. (Also 5th best xwOBA by Statcast.) But the Nationals are dead last in reliever ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 29th in xFIP. (29th in xwOBA as well.) Even with that awful pen, they're still tied with Philadelphia for 2nd place the division in Pythag record, and they're even 5 games ahead of Philly by BaseRuns record. Looking at wild card competition, the Nationals are tied with Milwaukee in both Pythag and BaseRuns record. The Nationals are currently running a $197 mil payroll, but they could shed $70 mil in departing free agents this winter, giving them more than enough room to make an aggressive bid to retain Rendon plus add other pieces or rein in payroll a bit, if they so desire, and go forward with their great SP and young controlled hitters like Soto and Turner. The Nationals are clearly not perfect and will face challenges, for sure, but this doesn't look like a recipe for aggressively shopping a guy like Scherzer right now. MLB bullpens can and do get turned around quickly. The Nationals actually led the division in reliever ERA just last year (and were 15th in MLB). The whole division ranks 20th through 24th, respectively, in 2019 bullpen FIP. Unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer -- like, 3 elite prospects and all the salary relief, sending Scherzer to an AL team -- I can't see them moving Scherzer now. Strasburg is actually the more interesting case -- he has an opt out after this season with 4/100 remaining, and a limited no-trade clause right now. Although if they think he's likely to opt out, that would obviously drop his trade value to rental territory too, assuming they could even navigate the no-trade. (Given his health history and the recent FA markets, he might stick with the 4/100, or maybe just use the opt out to negotiate a further extension like Sabathia did a few years back.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you guys expect that Larnach and Diaz will join Pensacola when they start their second half on Thursday?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, a pitcher from the other Jaime Garcia trade (Huascar Ynoa) just made his MLB debut this past Sunday, with two scoreless innings in a blowout. Ynoa hasn't pitched particularly well in the minor leagues, but he sure has marched up the ladder this year -- he started the year in high-A!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Meh. Pineda only managed to pitch 35% of the innings last night.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If you really believe Scherzer is still "immensely effective" and you'd "take him a heartbeat", maybe it's not so "dumb" that the Nats don't want to deal him. It's hard to get fair value return on really good players -- that's why so few of them are dealt by teams with plausible arguments for current or near-future contention.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that there's a big difference between being a "post hype" elite prospect and other "post hype" prospects. Glasnow and Meadows were only a year removed from being top 10-15 overall prospects, and Meadows himself was still top 40-50 entering 2018 and certainly hadn't fallen off much with his MLB debut (116 OPS+ with Pittsburgh). Glasnow probably could have still been top 50 or so preseason 2018 too if he hadn't graduated off the list due to innings in 2017 -- his MLB debut was pretty bad, but his upper minors performances were still electrifying. Romero and Gonsalves were only at best a borderline top 100 guys, and Gordon was towards the end of most top 100 lists before falling off this year entirely. Not to say they don't have some value, but I wouldn't compare their names now with Glasnow and Meadows circa July 2018. (And I mentioned on another thread, but Archer was a quite a bit "post hype" himself by July 2018, in the middle of his third straight season of ~100 ERA+. So our lesser post-hype prospects might only be buying a lesser version of an average-ish pitcher too...)
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