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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. And of those three, whoever isn't cut or claimed might well be removed from the 40-man, meaning Gibson would have a leg up on them too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty sure that whoever wins the 5th spot could easily be demoted/cut in May if pitching poorly. I don't think the org feels any great loyalty to any of Deduno, Worley, or Diamond, they just may want more than March to figure out if any of them are worth keeping. (The fact that the Twins made an offer to Santana suggests the org doesn't feel very great about them, certainly.) And in that scenario, if pitching well, Gibson would be the first up. Although I admit, if Santana had taken the last spot, it wouldn't have been quite so easy. Personally, I think Correia would have had a relatively short leash in that scenario, given the expiring contract and bullpen experience (and frankly, his mediocre upside). Honestly, Pelfrey and Hughes should probably have similar short-ish leashes -- for their better upside, they are still gambles who have to prove they have improved. Although their leashes are probably longer than a month or two unless they absolutely fall apart like Worley 2013.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Or, they could do the sneaky thing and not DL Florimon, just stash him on the bench for a few games while Escobar plays. I think they've been burned doing that before (albeit with more specific injuries, not Florimon's generic appendectomy recovery).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. They may want to give the starts to Escobar and would need another IF backup. We still may need to add another OF and/or DH to the 40-man (Kubel, Mastroianni, or Ramirez, most likely), so the other NRIs like Bernier have a fairly uphill battle. Personally, as a fan I wouldn't mind seeing Santana get a little look, if we need short term SS help. Nothing like the Hicks experience -- keep him out for opening day, maybe, then bat him 9th a few times.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect we've heard the last of this so-called "Doctor" Andrews!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for stopping by, Jack. And don't worry -- we all certainly share your concern about TR's health. We just can't help discussing other front office types and their roles, like Antony (and you too ). Would you have any moments to chat again? We could resurrect that old thread of yours. Just curious what your spring training has been like (what's your focus? 25 man roster, 40 man roster... other team's 40 man rosters?). Also what general thoughts you have about the new ballpark data capture system recently announced by MLB Advanced Media (I noticed that Target Field is one of the early adopters), and how much of that data will be publicly available (and in what format). Thanks again!
  7. Otto von Ballpark

    Why close that thread? Seems to have been self-policed reasonably well -- we were pretty much back on topic for the whole last page, and there was at least one point I found there worth correcting (in regards to Willingham's contract offers).

  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It must have been a dream, because I don't think you can trade draft picks (only those new extra "competitive balance picks" I think). I suppose you could have Drew officially re-sign with Boston, then they trade him for Florimon... but then the commissioner might get involved, and you wouldn't want Bud Selig appearing in your dreams.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Rich Becker was probably underrated. I seem to recall some alleged adventures in the OF, but he graded out just fine defensively. Great OBP, little bit of pop, was a ~100 OPS+, ~3 WAR player making minimum salary for a couple years there. I believe an injury after he left the Twins really hurt his career...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, by this logic, what does it mean that the Twins openly admit they made offers to Pierzynski and Salty? That suggests the Twins did NOT want to give the starting job to Pinto, and I don't know if that feeling changes just because they settled for an inferior acquisition in Suzuki.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The rotation is improved, but I don't think it's nearly THAT good (to give us a chance regardless of our offense). Every pitcher is basically a ~100 ERA+ upside, which is light years ahead of what we've seen the last two years, but doesn't necessarily rack up wins even with an average offense. (Add that only 2-3 of these guys are likely to hit that upside over a full season in 2014, and it lowers expectations even more.) If some of those offensive wishes come true, though, we could absolutely hang around and keep things interesting, even with my more pessimistic take on the starting staff comes to fruition.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, back to the original thread topic: What do you folks think of Drew and Morales? If they fold and accept a Nelson Cruz type 1/8 deal, would you do that? I don't like giving up the draft pick for a one-year asset, and if they sign for 1/8, it's probably not a good idea to give them a 1/15 qualifying offer next offseason... but hopefully by that point, reality would set in and they'd be more amenable to a 3/24 type deal. Who knows what Boras is pushing for, though.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    But -- how many guys ever sign true lowball offers? I can't really think of any, of the top of my head. The point of taking advantage of the market isn't about trying to get a lowball steal 1% of the time, but getting an asset at a discount more frequently than that. IMO, the Garza offer was less of a lowball -- slight lowball in terms of years more than AAV. Although it hurts that the offer that beat us basically just added a 4th guaranteed year at $8 mil. Not all "guaranteed 4th years" are equal -- that's Hughes/Pelfrey gambling money. (Although I still strongly suspect Garza didn't prefer a Twins reunion and/or preferred Milwaukee and staying in the NL Central.) Santana has been healthier but a little more up and down over his career. 3/30 or even 3/33 seems lowball in both years and dollars, and would have been completely inappropriate if it wasn't March and Santana wasn't desperate to get back on the field. I would have like to see them make more of an honest offer here -- 3/39 would have been a lowball in years, but not AAV, and could have snagged us an asset. Or 4/44 would have been lowball in AAV but not years.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Suzuki is not a lifetime veteran backup. In fact, 2013 was the first time he'd ever been a backup. And he still wound up starting a majority of games and netting 300+ PA (although it was more a function of Ramos injury, I think).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough... probably more logical than my irrational fave Eric Fryer right now. I wouldn't worry about anybody being blocked, even with Ervin Santana in the fold. Correia is obviously just a placeholder, and only 1 prospect is knocking on the door right now (Gibson). (Meyer is still walking up the sidewalk, and I think Trevor May is wandering around the lawn somewhere.) And although veterans are more reliable than prospects, I still wouldn't be surprised to see a failure there too (especially given that Hughes and Pelfrey are both gambles, and so is Nolasco to a lesser extent). It's nice to finally put the staff together, and not have to rely on best-case scenarios for everybody. There are a few ways this could come together for the Twins, and adding Santana would only create a few more. I only hope the offense doesn't become like the 2012-2013 rotation...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, by definition, not one team has made an acceptable offer to them at all -- they haven't accepted any offers. But at least in Santana's case, I think we can be pretty confident that these rumored 3/30-ish offers are real, and combined with the Lohse deal last year, it's probably the discounted market rate for March SP signings. Which suggests Santana is still valued more than Hughes and Pelfrey, at least, and comparably to Nolasco (which I believe was jokin's original point in this line of discussion). Now, what's going on with Drew and Morales at this point, who knows? Leave it to the Boras clients to really confuse the market!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    You're talking as if Deduno's a young phenom or foreign import with a brief but excellent track record. But the guy is 30 years old, he was outrighted just one year ago (and waived and released the year prior), and even at his small sample "peak" he still wasn't as good as Santana last year by basically any measure (ERA+, FIP/xFIP, SO/BB, IP, IP/GS, etc). Deduno's a fun guy to watch, and I'll gladly keep him on the roster somehow to see if he can keep surprising us, but counting on a guy like him for the 2014 (and 2015!) rotation is the kind of thing that got the Twins into their 2012-2013 starting pitching quagmire to begin with.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily. For that to be true, he'd have to think he is unlikely to get better than 2/19 next offseason, which seems very low. Heck, someone was willing to pay him 1/12 (plus a minor leaguer) for 2013 even coming off a poor 2012. True, the extra $19 mil guaranteed now would be tempting, but to a man who's already made $43 mil in his career, he's probably willing to play with reasonable odds. Now, up the money (3/39? 3/42?) or add a fourth year and things start to get a little more interesting. He knows the midrange starter market is around 4/50, and he'll only be a year older next year, and not being an "ace" type pitcher, I don't think he's likely to have a performance that could move him beyond that 4/50 class of pitcher. It will be interesting to see what he settles for.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins do seem to have a lot of pitchers under contract, but remember that two of them (Hughes and Pelfrey) are still very speculative gambles (and were priced accordingly), and the other (Nolasco) was mostly a safe, durability/stability-type acquisition, and a bit of a gamble too (on the predictive power of xFIP). So there is definitely room for improvement there. Doesn't necessarily have to be now, but this does appear to be a good offseason to add midrange SP at reasonable contracts. No reason to pass up a better pitcher than those currently under contract (like Santana) if he is available at a discount now (like 3/33 or similar would represent). Same with Garza (I actually wish we been a hair more aggressive with him, and made the same offer as the Brewers).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No, this is not possible. It used to be possible with the old arbitration system, but it is not anymore, and is expressly forbidden in the bargaining agreement. You might be able to sneak under that with a handshake agreement, but with so few Qualifying Offer FAs, it would invite a lot of scrutiny. The better and more likely outcome is that QO FAs will start with more reasonable demands, or negotiate earlier in the offseason. I'm pretty sure Santana could have gotten his 4/50 or better if his demands had been in that ballpark to begin with (or if he had adjusted his demands anytime through January, probably).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a contradiction at all. Santana may currently prefer a 1 year deal to the 3/33 offer out there, but that doesn't mean he'd necessarily prefer 1 year over an improved 4/44 offer.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The comp pick would still be a possibility for Santana next year, unless he played less than a full season with a team this year (i.e. traded mid-year like Garza, or if he waited to sign until April). Stephen Drew was a one-year contract for Boston last year, and he was still eligible to be made a "qualifying offer" and net a comp pick.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Deduno? You project Deduno as better than Ervin Santana, not only for 2014 but also 2015? Deduno, whose FIP/xFIP, K/9, and BB/9 were all worse than Santana last year, in half the innings? Deduno, whose season last year ended early due to shoulder surgery? Who only has 192 career MLB innings? Who hasn't pitched more than 138 innings in any professional season, ever? Who is only 8 months younger than Santana? You made some fair points in the Drew debates, but this is wild. Methinks you are severely underestimating the value of established MLB performance.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, earlier in the thread, you said this: So if you are asking for confirmation from the Twins, about an ongoing negotiation, by your own admission you're basically demanding evidence that cannot exist.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Johnson is on the 40-man roster. Perhaps you are confusing him with Gilmartin?
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