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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with you in general, but first of all, a lot of the players ARE the same: - Suzuki for Morneau might be the only real difference in our starting position players from last year (in addition to the AAAA DH du jour subbing for Doumit, I guess) - 3/5 of the starting rotation was here last year too, and 2 of them performed poorly (and the other is a fair regression candidate, coming off a career best ERA+ at age 32). And one of the new "improved" starters (Hughes) was among the worst regular starters in all of MLB last year, performing around Scott Diamond level. There's still plenty of room for this group to improve on 2012-2013 and STILL be below average. - Bullpen is likely the same too, which is actually a positive for this club, but it also means there isn't likely to be any "unexpected" improvement from this area And like the past few seasons, there still isn't a surplus of talent anywhere on the roster, or surplus assets anywhere in the system, lowering the odds of gaining wins through trade. Also, it's not just players. The coaches and front office are basically unchanged, and they were responsible for the acquisition and development (or lack thereof) of the above players. Also, past evidences suggests that this front office is willing to tolerate a fair amount of losing (90+ losses, 4+ years) in the name of rebuilding, so there isn't much impetus for major in-season changes (even if the surplus was there to make it happen).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Vegas 70 win over/under was specifically invoked as evidence of optimism around the Twins and that the Twins are expected to (modestly) improve. But it's not, really -- it's just the general low end for team win totals in projection systems (outliers like the Astros notwithstanding). For perspective, it's the second worst over/under in the AL (ahead of only the Astros -- who are still an NL team in my mind anyway ), fourth worst in MLB (only 1 win ahead of the Cubs and Marlins), and a full 5 wins behind the next worse AL team (White Sox). In other words, in relative terms it is almost identical to the 2013 results, and probably pretty close to our 2012-2013 preseason projections too. The 2014 Twins are basically forecast to repeat their 2011-2013 results, as much as any projection system can allow (minimal regression to the mean).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at some Vegas over/unders, they have every team in MLB pegged between 69.5 and 90.5 save for Houston at 62.5. That's also the range of most projection systems. Basically, if you're projected around 70 wins, you're one of the worst teams in baseball, and 65 wins is well within the realm of possibility. I don't know that we will be worse this year than the previous 3, but I don't like the odds of us being appreciably better either. CORRECTION EDIT: actually the Dodgers are the outlier on the high end at 93 wins -- FWIW, I like the under there...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, the best part of this move may not even be Gibson or Deduno. It effectively moves Meyer up a few spots on the depth chart, hopefully first in line assuming he makes a smooth transition to AAA.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Congrats to Kyle, and way to go Twins. They really played their poker face on this one! Antony barely mentioned him in that interview. Still seems like they were giving Worley/Diamond every opportunity to claim the job, but glad to see Gibson was indeed a realistic option. Didn't they previously express concerns about Deduno coming out of the pen? I seem to recall something like that from the past two years. Not sure whether it was his warmup routine, recovery rate, mediocre K/BB rates, something?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    While far from perfect, Doumit was still a 96 OPS+ hitter last year in over 500 PA. As optimistic as I am, I think Pinto will be at best a modest upgrade over that (any rate improvement will likely be offset by less playing time). If things break right, we could bounce back to 2012 levels (when we ranked 10 in R/G), even with a few black holes in the order. Still a real possibility we will continue bottoming out, though (kinda like the starting staff last year) -- hopefully that would inspire more offseason remedies, though.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if winning begets chemistry exactly, but it's just easy to be interested in the team (and focus on THE TEAM) when they are winning. This applies to fans, sportswriters, and even the players themselves, I imagine. On the flip side, when the team is struggling, one has to work to generate/maintain interest, focus is shifted almost entirely to individuals rather than the collective team, and the results usually lean negative, like a lot of the talk on this board the last few years, and this article by Souhan. I imagine there has been a lot of negativity in the clubhouse too about individual poor performances, injuries, job security or lack thereof, etc.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair point. The Twins did ramp up Ramos closer to 75% at AAA, and Pinto was trending that way too after his promotion last year (although fairly small samples, both). Still, 75% of a short AAA season is only 95 games. Given that his bat looks steady and he was ready enough to promote last season, I see no reason why that isn't a reasonable target for his MLB catching load in 2014, with another 20-30 games in our wide-open DH spot. If nothing else, it will be much clearer going into 2015 whether he can handle it.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that Worley was never a top prospect. 3rd round pick reached the majors quickly, but his 2011 MLB K rate (and general effectiveness) was actually quite a jump from anything he had done before or since. He was still useful overall in 2012, though, and it certainly doesn't explain his absolute crash the past year, but there is some precedent for volatility in his performance. He and May were two projects when acquired, and probably necessary given the state of Twins pitching at the time. The Twins counted on Worley a little too much last year, and neither guy is working out as hoped so far, but that's not exactly unprecedented for pitching projects. Hopefully the trend reverses soon with our other acquisitions/promotions.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally, 27 year olds (entering age 28 season) don't hit free agency that often. If you're in MLB full time by age 22, and you're still in MLB at age 27, you're usually good enough to get a contract extension beyond that, unless you have injury issues. Edwin Jackson was the same age after 2011, and signed a one-year deal with Washington before getting his big Cubs contract. Gil Meche might be a best case scenario for Hughes, results-wise. Same age entering FA, same career ERA+ (although Hughes had the benefit of pitching some in relief), similar in-season durability questions (relatively low IP and IP/GS). Meche, as we all know, got 5/55 in what was considered a big overpay by the Royals at the time, but he actually had two seasons averaging 213 IP and 116 ERA+ before he got injured (and eventually retired, graciously saving the Royals some of that cash!). Pavano originally hit FA just one year later than Hughes but was coming off a career year. Sanchez and Greinke were just one year older too, but a different class of a pitcher from all of these guys. Hughes is definitely an interesting case, and should be fun to watch.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    My argument wasn't that Hughes wasn't worth 3/24. It's that top of the rotation potential rarely accepts such a deal on the FA market. Looking at his overall career ERA+, he slots in around Pelfrey and Vargas. And he just about split the difference between those two, contract-wise. That's probably where his expected performance should be too, with a plus (or more accurately, not a minus) for not yet being decline-phase age. For me, his home/road splits and age simply suggest that he should be able to rebound from 2013, rather than achieve any new level of overall performance. If he really was a top of the rotation gem hidden only by simple home/road splits, I still think he either signs for more than 3/24 or signs a shorter deal to hit the market again sooner.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if you looked it up, but yes, the past two seasons (and for his career), Pinto has only caught about 60% of his total games in the minors.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Where have we heard this before, though? To paraphrase a common argument in our shortstop threads: "Florimon will likely be a black hole with the bat, granted, but if we're looking for offensive production from the number 9 hitter to ignite our run production, then we're already lost in the weeds." We're apparently also using some milder variation of this excuse for 3B, DH, and maybe an OF spot or two. At what point does it stop? Yes, any one of these guys probably wouldn't derail the '27 Yankees by themselves, but that doesn't justify collecting 6 of them on the 2014 Twins. Also, the catcher spot was the main driver of our run production last year, when our offense looked rather lost in the weeds already. Significantly downgrading at the position isn't a lateral move, it's getting further lost in the weeds (absent major changes elsewhere).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. One key thing to remember is: he was pretty bad last year, and in 2011. Even just rebounding to 2010/2012 numbers for him will be a big achievement, and that's ~100 ERA+ territory, a 3/4 starter on a good team. Projecting him to surpass those numbers and become a top of the rotation guy is pretty wild, at this point. Those guys usually don't sign FA deals for 3/24.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, do you realize the exact same thing could have been written about Bill Smith in 2007? I don't think anyone disputes whether the Twins think Antony's ready, but the debate here is, is he likely to succeed?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Antony does say "Deduno has done a nice job" but then moments later says "Nobody’s really stepped up to try to earn the spots." Seems like a contradiction there. Gibson has also done well, performance pretty close to the 3 FA SP signings. Tonkin, Guerra, and probably a few LHP have done well too out of the bullpen. Offense is a bit more muddied, and the various CF have been underwhelming, but if they were genuinely competing for something, Pinto, Herrmann, Arcia, Colabello, and Santana all did okay with the stick. Then again, all but a handful of hitters in camp are making league minimum or are NRIs, with few current/recent prospects, so what could be reasonably expected? Even of the vets, the starting catcher is an acknowledged poor hitter, the starting LF is 35 and coming off his worst MLB season to date, and the starting 1B is making a position switch that will likely diminish the value of his offense.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks Parker. I was also thinking about Suzuki's acquisition, and if that was in any way influenced by come number-crunching. I suspect it wasn't, as he wasn't even their first or second choice among free agent catchers.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I love any info we can get from Florida (Thrylos, Hallsey, etc, you guys are awesome), but the fact that Tampa was scouting our only two 40 man roster pitchers in this particular game is a pretty weak basis for a trade rumor.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    From everything I've heard, Pinto has a pretty good work ethic/habits already. It would be pretty hard to last as a catcher through 8 pro seasons without that (albeit the first few were short season rookie leagues, but he's also caught in winter leagues in between). I wouldn't even bring up those terms if I were the Twins or one of their beat writers -- doesn't seem fair to Pinto. Hopefully that was just Mackey looking for pseudo-synonyms for game-calling/defensive stuff. I think it boils down to Suzuki being a known veteran "gamer" (and not in the Lew Ford sense ) and having worked with successful MLB pitching staffs before. Not unreasonable, but, how much did Suzuki really contribute to those pitching staffs success? Curious if Jack Goin or the Twins have crunched any numbers on that, or if this is strictly up to the field generals. From the outside, it definitely looks like more of a political move than a baseball move, but that's not unique to the Twins or baseball. (I've seen amateur/semi-pro players endorse similar moves on their own teams.) Hopefully it is remedied sooner rather than later.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, over at Fangraphs, the spread of team shortstop offensive WAR last year was 56 runs (+18 to -38). For defensive WAR, it was 43.1 WAR, and about a quarter of that was just Simmons. Throw him out of the equation, and the defensive spread was only 32 runs. And that might understate the difference, since those are team totals and backups are likely pulling those offensive numbers down more than the defensive numbers. (Although the reverse might be true for the present day Twins ) This suggests the spread of defensive talent is much narrower than the spread of offensive talent. Which lowers Florimon's value compared to his hypothetical mirror image (a solid bat and below replacement glove player), although it does not mean Florimon is without worth, of course.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Brian, while I get your point, I would be very careful with this "appeal to authority" line of reasoning. You could apply it to basically all of the Twins moves and suppress all argument, if you wanted. Would quickly run this board out of business. Besides, I think it's quite possible (in fact likely) from your evidence that the Twins don't consider Florimon "elite" but simply slightly above average defensively. But, combined with his cheap price tag, above-Butera level bat, lack of affordable alternatives, and our non-contending status, they think he's the best man for the job right now. And that's not unreasonable. Is it because teams are willing to tolerate bad hitting so they can get solid defense? Or is it because it's harder to hit at the MLB level than it is to field at the MLB level? Remember, replacement level for the bat is pretty low, but for fielding it's actually rather high (average). I think it would be relatively easy to find a freely available player who could be an average MLB defensive SS -- not as easy as other defensive positions, of course. But much, much easier than finding an average bat. Such a theoretical player would probably be about pitcher-level with the bat, however, which is how Florimon derives value even while being "below replacement" with the stick.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't see that happening for Morales. He could remain unsigned or get a Nelson Cruz type deal.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not sure that Perkins is as "elite" as some are saying here (his rise in K rate has come at a time when the league K rate has risen too), but he's pretty good, and a 2/16 extension isn't paying him like an elite guy anyway. Also, getting him on a 2/16 extension now might be a better move than waiting a couple years, and having to do something like 4/32 or worse. The Joe Nathan extension was pretty bad, and I'm glad this basically means that won't happen again, at least not for another 5 years.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This is not exactly true. The 20% rule only applies to arbitration. Extensions and free agents can agree to whatever salaries they want.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm with you there. And with the modest staff the Twins have assembled, there is a chance that we could end up with 4 or 5 starters chugging along at ~90 ERA+, not good enough to really help us contend, but not bad enough to cut. But a few of these guys still have to prove they can even hit that ~90 ERA+ mark, or sustain it, so I'm not too worried about that scenario quite yet.
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