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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Could that include Duensing himself? Or did I just create some kind of Duensing's Paradox?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Olivia, MN is a very good town, with a very good giant corn cob gazebo.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And not just due to age, as Burton only had 4 years service at the time, meaning he was arb-eligible and under the Twins control (if we wanted him) for at least 2 more years (plus two more once we bought him out). The Burton comparison would have worked with Guerrier in the spring of 2009, if he had been non-tendered at age 30 after some struggles in 2008. 5 years later? Not so much. And again, any one of Kubel, Bartlett, or Guerrier getting an unearned roster spot isn't so bad by itself, it happens all the time. It's the 3 for 3 thing that suggests a serial pattern of either poor talent evaluation or misplaced priorities.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure we're not going to get good looks at all of the various interesting AAA arms who will require roster decisions this winter and next spring (not to mention longer looks at Meyer and May, who could have been starting while Pino and Johnson got their MLB auditions in Guerrier's bullpen spot). Was it worth it to let Guerrier get mop-up innings for 2+ months, hoping for a long shot chance at a PTBNL or "cash considerations"? Pretty sure we also couldn't bring aboard Fuld in February if we had essentially promised spots to Bartlett and Kubel, even if we didn't have much confidence in Presley or Mastroianni anymore. I guess that didn't really "block" anyone but it delayed Aaron Hicks for another 2+ months from getting the minor league time he so obviously needed.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, especially with Nolasco still on the shelf. I might shift Correia to the pen upon his return (would he demand a trade again?), to slot in both Meyer and May, but I would keep KC around as a non-embarrassing fill-in rather than release him (particularly if Meyer is looking at a September shutdown).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously, on a fairly thoroughly non-contending team, no one player can do too much damage. Kubel took a roster spot that could have gone to Presley or Mastroianni just as much as Bartlett did. Or his spot could have even gone to Sam Fuld, who was available on a minor league deal as late as February. All of which guaranteed Hicks a spot in MLB far too long. (Also losing a spot to Kubel was Parmelee, who while perhaps a lower-upside hitter, at least had the ability to play the field and not blame his poor hitting on tired legs.) And I'd have rather given Guerrier's spot/innings to one of our multiple interesting AAA arms, to better inform us of their abilities in advance of our 2015 planning. (Best yet, give his bullpen spot to Deduno/Pino/Johnson and let Meyer and May log some MLB starts this season.) And for what did we give up these opportunities? All three of Bartlett, Kubel, and Guerrier looked pretty well cooked before we had to officially guarantee them anything.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure how I was re-writing history. Guerrier was promoted (and kept on the roster 2+ months) ahead of the following more likely future bullpen arms performing well in AAA: Darnell, Ibarra, Johnson, and Pressly on the 40-man roster at the time, not to mention Achter, Pino, and Guerra would could have been added, and also not to mention Meyer or May if you wanted to start them out in the pen (or shift Deduno/Pino/Johnson to their more likely long-term destination in the MLB pen the past few months). Kubel and Bartlett led directly to the cutting of Presley and Mastroianni, and thus indirectly to the starting of Hicks. Heck, if we were looking for a guy on a minor league deal to guarantee a MLB roster spot regardless of performance, CFSam Fuld probably would have signed here back in February, and could have made it that much easier to start Hicks in the minors where he belonged. The last places we needed to guarantee spots for longshot, low-upside fliers in a rebuilding year were corner OF/DH and the bullpen (and probably even backup SS too, given the nature of Bartlett's long shot, Florimon's remaining option, the presence of Escobar, and Danny Santana's promising spring).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to clear up: Rangers got the haul for Soria, the Tigers gave it up. (I was confused by this, and looking around for Joe Nathan trade information! ) I think these closer returns, while appropriate for Street and Soria, and probably not acceptable for Perkins given his contract etc. And it suggests that this may be the upper bound for closer deals, which would pretty much bury any chance of trading Perkins at this point. (We'd probably be looking for something more like the last two Garza trade returns, and I'm not sure if I've ever seen that for a closer -- heck, we don't see that kind of return for any player very often anymore.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins really thought Guerrier was ever promising trade bait, that's a fairly bad call by itself. Dude can be a cromulent reliever, but the combination of age, declining peripherals (and not great peripherals to begin with), recent elbow surgery, minor league deal, and barely getting (and not really deserving) his minor league promotion in May... none of that suggests any kind of return for a trade, even when he ultimately performed about as well as could be expected. And even if he had performed well in 2014, the Twins had no control over him or his salary beyond this season anyway. Definitely seems more like a misguided "win now" / "get the band back together" move to me. I would have rather used his 2+ months on the roster on any number of our AAA pitchers who could potentially be cheap contributors for multiple future seasons. (Sort of like... Matt Guerrier, circa 2005.) The much-improved Rochester staff isn't worth much if it mostly stays in Rochester! Let's get as much info as we can about these guys now, heading into the offseason and 2015.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Took this from the Guerrier-specific thread. If Kubel, Bartlett, and Guerrier had already been under contract, but the Twins moved on from them, I would completely agree with you. But that wasn't the case at all. If cutting those 3 represent three steps forward, we merely re-gained the three steps back taken when they were added to the roster in the first place. (And I'd argue we took more steps back than steps forward in regards to these 3 in 2014, through the guys lost from the roster and the more interesting arms mostly stuck at AAA up until now. Not to mention basically forcing Hicks into the opening day lineup again.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly! Well put, Nick Nelson. - The Twins took apparent fliers on three guys who recently looked cooked -- and I agree with Seth here, there's no harm in that. - All 3 of them looked pretty cooked (or at best, reinforced their limited upside) in their spring training and minor league auditions -- that's probably to be expected, remember there is a reason these guys had to take minor league deals. - Here's where it gets problematic -- the Twins rostered all three of them anyway, guaranteed them $4 million in salary, lost (or risked losing) younger cheaper options in the process, and gave them each 2+ months of poor/mopup play in MLB before finally cutting them (although Bartlett mercifully retired before he got his complementary 2 months, not before we asked him to postpone that retirement decision, of course). In Guerrier's case, the Twins also more or less ignored potential replacements (younger, cheaper, higher upside) on a league-best AAA pitching staff for basically half a season. Were the Twins really unable to evaluate ANY of these guys without 2 months of MLB regular season play and $1-2 million guaranteed salaries? Or did the Twins really promise MLB roster spots, in a rebuilding year, to 3 low-upside veterans who could not get such a promise from any other team, and indeed were unable to win spots in spring training and minor league auditions?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Burton was younger, cheaper, and actually performed well in his spring training audition (2 ER, 8 K, 0.82 WHIP in 11 IP). Plus, because he only had 4 years MLB service at the time, if he performed well, we had control of him for multiple seasons (at a relatively affordable rate).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    No specific offense to Johnson and Pino, but 29 and 30 year old rookies are pretty much the definition of MLB "misfits" (in "the island of misfit toys" sense?).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I recall him setting down the Yankees in order in the 8th inning, preserving our lead in 2009 ALDS Game 2. I was kinda hoping he would pitch the 9th too, as Nathan struggled down the stretch (and was later revealed to be injured), but I guess A-Rod was due up (although he could have been walked).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    A step in the right direction, frees a 40-man roster spot. Not much excuse to keep Meyer down any longer, especially with an open Saturday start looming.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I didn't bring it up! But I don't think farm system ranks correlate particularly well with "which teams are best suited to improve from within" either. Why should the Astros be less "suited to improve from within" because they promoted Springer and Singleton to the majors a couple months ago? Or the Pirates with Polanco? Are the Marlins and Mets less suited to improve from within, because Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey dominated MLB but are out for the year with injury, as compared to a team whose prospects have yet to reach MLB much less excel? I just thought it was a decent point -- of the teams near them in "top farm systems" rankings, the Twins are still the worst positioned in terms of graduating that farm system talent to the MLB roster. Maybe that's preaching to the choir or re-hashing old debates (not that top farm system discussion hasn't been re-hashed quite a bit by itself!), but I thought it was an interesting point. Not sure if there are a lot more compelling interesting points to bring up in regards to yet another high farm system ranking.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that true? 24/25 hardly seems like rushing anybody, frankly I would be surprised if many guys who eventually stick in MLB debut after that age. Just eyeballing the Twins current roster, it looks like most of them debuted by 25. Your point would work much better if your age cut-off was 21/22 -- those seem to be the more rare, special talents.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Here is a report from Fangraphs, starting pitchers from 2000-2014 with career ERA- marks between 111 and 121 (centered on Correia's mark of 116): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=18154&players=0&sort=14%2cd Not a lot of guys targeted for trade on that list, and the few that were (Ricky Nolasco!) still had some combination of higher peaks, better current seasons, and/or younger age.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Believe me, I've thought of most of these names already! Blanton and Pineiro are getting close, like Ramon Ortiz. Their recent records resembled Correia's, but they too had 96-97 career ERA+ marks at the time, and Blanton had a not-embarrassing playoff record to boot. It's really tough to find a guy with a ~97 ERA+ peak getting moved at the deadline. There's just very little upside for a contending team.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Saunders had a 102 career ERA+ at the time, and a 97 ERA+ for the season (Correia's peak). (Also lefthanded, perhaps a bonus.) Also Arizona apparently had to kick in some cash to deal him? Lindstrom wasn't free either, he was making $3.6 mil that season.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Including them would just be a more accurate predictor of a club's future MLB success. When you think about it, it's actually a little weird to exclude young guys just because they "graduate" to MLB. How meaningful is a farm system ranking, when successfully graduating a player to MLB actually makes your ranking worse?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Christensen was a 25th rounder, and almost 23 years old when he was drafted. Actually wouldn't expect him to reach the majors at all! But yeah, if those guys make it, they're probably 26 when they debut (Lew Ford). Not really evidence of anything. But I would guess that most decently-regarded college draftees, if they are going to be MLB players, should debut by age 25, no problem. Alex Meyer was a first rounder and only 21. Garza was a 21 y.o. first rounder too. Baker and Slowey were 21 y.o. 2nd rounders. All reached MLB by age 23. Gibson was a 21 y.o. first rounder too, and was on track to debut at age 23 before his surgery (which has probably unfairly contributed to the perception of the Twins as slow to promote). Trevor May was an 18 y.o. 4th rounder out of high school. I know his prospect stock fell in the middle years, but it's a little crazy to think he may just sneak in his debut (hopefully!) before turning 25 despite no major injuries.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    And zero IP for starters 25 and under! Dodgers are the only other club with that distinction so far in 2014. Even back in 2010 our 25 and under starters managed 6 IP (god bless you, Jeff Manship!). The Twins rank 10th in MLB for most PA by hitters 25 and under, although we are behind the White Sox and Royals again. Of our 5 under 25 hitters, two (Pinto and Hicks) are back in the minors; the other three are Escobar, Santana, and Arcia. Our 25 and under PA ranks since 2010: 17, 16, 17, 13, now 10. Improvement! Our 25 and under IP ranks since 2010: 30, 24, 18, 21, now 30. Not so much...?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting, although Marquis career ERA+ at the time (and current season ERA+) was basically the same as Correia's peak ERA+. If Correia was having his 2013 season, or could reliably replicate his 2013 season, that would obviously improve his trade value (although it would obviously improve his value to the Twins too!). Livan Hernandez is another guy I thought of, he was having a bad season for the Twins, but his career ERA+ was again as good as Correia's peak. Ramon Ortiz might be a decent one -- a much better peak and slightly better career numbers, but he had a multi-season run of poor pitching at the time of his trade. His salary was about half that of Correia. Both Hernandez and Ortiz were dumped on the same team (the Rockies) as August deals (Hernandez was simply surrendered on waivers). Both were also pretty surprising at the time, which doesn't bode well for predicting future similar deals!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Right. While no star, Norris was better, younger, and had 2+ seasons of control left. Rodriguez was much better and was under contract for 2+ more seasons too (albeit at a larger salary).
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