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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Turned out to be more useful than, say, Danny Santana's 2014 batting average.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, if Stewart really came into pro ball as a football player who was just learning how to pitch, any pre-draft projections for him were likely less reliable too. You can't use minimal amateur experience as an excuse for less-than-stellar professional results, but cling to a top-of-the-rotation starter projection based on the same minimal amateur experience. And there are others doing prospect evaluation (Sickels, Prospectus, MLB.com) who disagree with Law too, so your appeal to authority argument does little to advance the discussion. Sickels has downgraded Stewart each year, from B+ to B to B-. That looks about right to me. Doesn't mean he still can't achieve the same success/ceiling as before, plenty of B- prospects turn out great, but each year that passes without substantial on-field progress toward that goal, the odds become a little longer.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If this statement is true at all, I'd put the emphasis on "slightly." Virtually no one comes out of high school as anything close to a finished product, it shouldn't take 2.5 years (and counting) of full-time professional experience to catch up on that learning curve. In fact, if he really did have a lack of focused amateur experience before being drafted, isn't it just as likely that early projections about his ceiling and pitching style were perhaps wrong? That his pro experience since then has shown him to be a very different kind of pitcher than anticipated? That, plus injury, seems more likely than the idea that he's still making up for being unusually raw, or that he's approaching his development in a drastically different manner than other pitching prospects.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, we've all read a lot of things on this board. No one is disputing that Stewart, based on his background, has better odds of success than another pitcher with a 4.9 K/9 in high-A. Doesn't mean those odds or level of potential success are high enough to deserve a higher prospect ranking right now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI: Stewart pitched on the varsity team beginning as a sophomore, at a suburban southern private school with an elite baseball program: http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kohl-stewart/9fqJ1PTpEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm http://www.stpiusx.org/page.cfm?p=1607&teamID=129 He participated in 8 "Perfect Game" events (basically a combine for the top HS talent in the country), as early as age 16, 2 years before he was drafted: http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=281876 He may have been a potential college QB too but he wasn't a sandlot player from the backwoods. He wasn't Nick Gordon in his amateur baseball experience, but I'm not sure he was any more raw/inexperienced than your average top high school draft talents.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody is writing him off, but he has A LOT of work to do. It would be like if I decided to build my own house, I could make all the plans, work on my hammering technique, etc., but at some point I actually have to build the darn thing or my wife will never believe I can do the job well. To continue my odd analogy, I'd say Kohl Stewart is still in the pre-built basement, practicing with his hammer. He still has potential, but he's taking a non-standard route in fulfilling it so far, which means his chances of success are probably lower, which means he gets a lower rank in most prospect lists. That's hardly slighting him, it's just the facts of the situation.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    No way. The Royals won that game 7-1. Jeremy Guthrie had a 5.95 ERA, so he could have won it 7-6 and they could have held on to all of their prospects.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not necessarily the argument, though. Some believe Sano is already close enough to Plouffe defensively, others believe he could be with more MLB experience at the position, which a move to the OF would preclude (perhaps permanently, if the Twins don't trust Sano at 3B now they probably will trust him less after being away from the position for a year or two). Some believe that Sano can move to RF but it will be a suboptimal alignment, others believe that the acquisition of Park may not be worth the trouble. Etc. It's not necessarily a simple question of, "can Sano handle RF?" It's generally a question of whether it is a necessary or optimal move for the team and player at this time.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are just talking about spring training, MLB.TV doesn't do any blackouts in spring training. So then it's primarily just a question of, is anyone broadcasting a particular game? I know they skip a few in spring training. The Twins have their spring broadcast schedule up, with 12 games on Fox Sports, but not all other teams have that up yet. Check the MLB.TV schedule closer to March 1 to see if enough games are broadcast to make a subscription worthwhile for you. http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/schedule/broadcast/index.jsp?c_id=min http://mlb.mlb.com/mediacenter/index.jsp FYI, MLB.TV has a Roku app.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't forget, Babe Ruth moved to RF from pitcher too!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    bird, all I meant to say was if a lack of opportunity thus far is an issue when evaluating Tonkin now, as Seth suggested, that is a problem of the Twins own making. That's all. Not saying Tonkin was ready to be a star, not commenting on other positions, etc.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I didn't really mean "weak". More like even, balanced, wide open, etc. Over at Fangraphs, our projected division winner has the fewest projected wins (84) of any in baseball. Same for our projected 2nd place team. Lowest spread between first and last, or second and last, of any division.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Phil Hughes, seasons as a starter, ERA- / FIP- 2010: 98 / 98 2011: 138 / 109 2012: 101 / 107 2013: 128 / 110 2014: 91 / 70 2015: 109 / 116 Trevor May, 3 months starting in his rookie season, ERA- / FIP- 2015: 108 / 80 I'd be fine with using their current "stuff" to decide which one starts in 2016.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB teams rarely see it that way, though. Not a lot of pitchers held back for obvious service time reasons. I can't think of any held back for an extra year of control, Kris Bryant style. Gerrit Cole was called up right after the Super-2 date, which didn't get an extra year of control but guaranteed only 3 arb seasons rather than 4, but even that seems pretty rare for pitchers. The penny-pinching Rays, who famously held back Wil Myers past the Super 2 date, have developed a lot of pitching prospects lately and been pretty aggressive with promoting all of them. Makes sense, when you think about it. Pitchers have so much more perceived variability that the present-day value of "guaranteeing" a 7th season is notably lower. One injury and the whole thing is moot, look at Francisco Liriano (another aggressive promotion back in the day).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins were winning last April when they made the decision to go with vets? Throughout 2014? The vet preference isn't some new thing based on their place in the standings, it's their default mode. Sorry, didn't mean to bring it up again, but when you stated a concern about Tonkin is that he hasn't had "any real consistent, extended time" in MLB, well there's just no excuse for still having a concern like that after the stretch of seasons the Twins have had, and with our bullpen composition in those seasons. Not that I think Tonkin is any great shakes, and in fact I doubt the Twins are concerned about his experience either -- I think they've long viewed him as another fairly fungible 40-man insurance guy, closer to Darnell, Strong, etc. than any real part of our future. Just so happens he's survived his option years. Which leads me back again to TR's quote that "all three of those guys have a spot on this club if they just come in and earn it." It doesn't really mean anything without defining what "earn it" means, and in Tonkin's case in particular, it is probably a prohibitively high performance standard.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are overrating the likelihood of a March trade, or even an April trade based on March results. Teams generally aren't buying starting players in the trade market that early, particularly not an iffy guy like Nolasco with a longer-term commitment. If a hole develops, while they may not have great internal options, teams almost always go with the internal options for a few months first. Here are the March & April trades from the last couple years: http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount_type=4&type_ID=1&startDate=03/01/2015&endDate=04/30/2015&lang=41 http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount_type=4&type_ID=1&startDate=03/01/2014&endDate=04/30/2014&lang=41 I agree with your last point though, that it would be best to get rid of Nolasco, but short of release, I don't think you can do that until July at the earliest. I'd probably roster him over the various veteran bullpen candidates (Abad and Kintzler), but I have a harder time justifying him over other starters.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    When you are as close as the Twins are, projected near .500 in a weak division, you can't afford to defer a season. But if the Twins aren't expecting to be serious contenders in 2016, wouldn't that be more of an argument for trusting the youth this year? Applies more to the bullpen, but what benefits the 2017 Twins more, experience for Duffey/Berrios/etc., or showcasing Nolasco as a potential salary dump?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that too. Walker has yet to repeat a level, got added to the 40-man roster, and we haven't acquired a MLB outfielder who could potentially block him (although I guess signing Park and moving Sano could have a similar effect, if it sticks). I guess the Walker boosters just want more respect in prospect rankings, some here have him lower but Sickels has him at #8, Seth at #10, etc. We have a deep system, so it's hard to make a case for him much higher than that right now, no matter how you evaluate them.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, yeah, if everybody's clearly pitching good enough to be an asset, or injured/bad enough to require immediate replacement, and you have good immediate replacements available and you choose the correct ones, of course it's a win. But I'm not sure why we'd assume those are the only outcomes. What if a starter, or two, or three is just kinda "meh." Not good enough to be sought in trade, but not bad enough to force the Twins to replace him right away. Maybe just sorta injured, enough to excuse iffy performances and maybe give someone like Dean a spot start or two, but not injured enough to call up a permanent replacement like Berrios. We've seen these things before, and lacking clear aces/stars in the Twins rotation, we're likely to see them again in 2016. Obviously starting with some depth is nice, I like this mix more than the past few years, but it's not all lollipops and sunshine.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I figured you meant before his senior year injury.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to mention, prior to 14 games in the Dominican League this winter, Santana hadn't played a single inning of 2B anywhere in two years. Simply by virtue of more recent extensive experience, Polanco is probably better than Santana at 2B right now, no? And neither one has played any third base in the last 4-5 years, so I'm not sure how you'd judge that Polanco would be worse than Santana there right now.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If Boldt was more highly-regarded, wouldn't he have been drafted higher? I have to imagine he would have signed had he been drafted anywhere near Trout's spot at #25. Maybe you meant more highly regarded before his injured senior year?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the point. 68 runs per game would be more like $2k per run. A Minnesota fan complaining that it cost $338k per run would have applied incorrect math by not further dividing it by 162. Hence, it read as a dig at Minnesota math.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just responding to Seth, who stated that part of the issue with Tonkin has been lack of consistent opportunity, but who has also advocated a mediocre vets first plan. Now, I promised my therapist that I wouldn't talk about the Twins bullpen anymore, so I should stop here.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that a shot at Minnesota math too?
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