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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Carl gutted the payroll, tried contracting the team, tried selling them to Don Beaver, and used a kid with cancer in an attempt to get a taxpayer funded stadium all while Eloise was still very much alive.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins changed ownership in June 1984. That had more to do with the changes at GM, manager, and team president over the next 2-3 years, as opposed to the results on the field. Unless Pohlad plans to sell this summer, I don't see that being a terribly apt comparison.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Pirates are no strangers to the Super-2 deadline. They even kinda held back Gerrit Cole for it in 2013, although Cole uncharacteristically showed poor control at AAA in April 2013 -- shades of Berrios this year? The 2013 Pirates also had a incredibly solid rotation -- they still got fine results while waiting for Cole. Not sure what they do this year, Taillon and Glasnow are both very interesting cases, but I wouldn't be surprised if it waits until June 5th or so...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I bet they don't care that much. By the time he can leave, they may have gotten ~4 years of Cy Young level pitching from Arrieta for ~$27 mil, 2+ no-hitters, potentially 3 postseasons (or the chance to deal him for an excellent return if they happen to fall well short of the postseason his final year), and possibly a comp pick. Somebody else paying $200+ mil for his age 32-38 seasons probably won't be that troubling to them (although they could afford it if they wanted to). Likewise, if the Twins had gotten 2-3 seasons of 2014 Phil Hughes for $24 mil, plus a decent trade return or a comp pick, seeing him go somewhere else for his age 31-35 seasons for ~$100 mil or whatever probably would not have been too troubling either. Although we too could probably afford that level of contract if we wanted too, we don't have that much committed to players from 2017-2021. Sano and others won't be eligible for free agency until after 2021.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Nothing against Dean, but he had already allowed 8 hits over his 5 innings, including 3 hits and zero strikeouts over his previous two innings, so it's not like he was on some incredible roll that we had to allow him to continue in a tie game in the 7th.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking back, the Twins also started 10-26 in 2012, although they won a pair of fairly ugly games in Detroit at that point to start climbing back a bit. Got up to 10-12 games under .500 a couple times, before fading badly in August in September to finish 66-96. Of course, the last two nights have not gone that way for us in Detroit, so we're 10-28 now...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously we're all just speculating, but I don't think it's true that Pohlad cares only about the bottom line, or that he doesn't care about winning. (The opposite isn't true either, obviously, that Pohlad is willing to spend whatever it takes to win.) From what I can tell, I would guess that Pohlad cares more about the prestige of pro sports ownership, and "the club" of his longtime friends and colleagues in the Twins front office. More than maximizing wins or profits. That's kinda the vibe I get from a lot of the front office -- they just like being part of this club. Even sometimes the field staff and player decisions feel that way too. Which is admirable in a way, but frustrating when they're willing to tolerate so much losing and so many mistakes just to keep the club together.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    We should have gone to Tonkin and May to get through the 7th, like last night.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point! Seth's plan seems to be, play all the veterans to prepare for a July trade -- but not is their trade value questionable, it seems particularly unlikely that more than 1 or 2 of them could actually be dealt. (Even if we wanted to deal more, doing so would signal fire sale and probably lower our leverage quite drastically.) The better plan is probably betting now on which vets you think can be dealt and need to play in the meantime, and then still working young players in around them. For all I know, maybe the Twins think they are doing that, but to me it seems they are doing a pretty poor job so far.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    And as always, I welcome past examples of players with similar contract/performance getting dealt in July. I think you will find your theories about demand and return being a lot higher for these guys to be untrue in reality.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    This is Polanco's last option year. Which makes it especially odd why you'd want to restrict his potential MLB opportunity to August and September...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope! I wonder what the over/under date is on Polanco starting 3 MLB games in a row...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Even teams trading for "hot" players don't want guys with 2-3 guaranteed big money seasons remaining. Our three veteran SP are more likely to be August waiver trades than have LOTS of demand in July. Although I also think you are overrating the value of hotness. Plouffe doesn't have a long-term guaranteed deal, but he is 30 years old, has over 2600 MLB PA, and has been largely the same hitter throughout. No one is going to pay "a lot more" based on his next two months of performance (~200 PA). And of course, having 20 HR in late July will hardly be an indication that these guys are out-performing their career numbers anyway. Dozier or Plouffe might have 20 HR at that point with no more than a 110 OPS+, within their established range of performance. And the chance that these players will turn in such a superlative performance over the next 2 months (130 OPS+/ERA+) is probably so slim that it's not worth shutting out most of your young players until August to find out.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    1. Mauer, DH 2. Nunez, SS 3. Sano, RF 4. Park, 1B 5. Plouffe, 3B 6. Dozier, 2B 7. Rosario, LF 8. Suzuki, C 9. D. Santana, CF Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Carl would have spent more if he had lived to see the opening of Target Field. Actually, Twins payroll increased steadily throughout the 2000s as the team improved and as Target Field approached, all while Carl was still alive. It's not like the post-2009 Twins have aggressively stretched their budget for payroll, given the new stadium. I suspect payroll would have proceed exactly the same under Carl or Jim.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    He wouldn't even have had to repeat 2014 to be tradeable for a decent return on that contract. But once we extended him, Hughes pretty much became untradeable unless he repeated 2014.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Slightly off topic, but Park is a pretty athletic guy, right? Looks great at 1B, and his Korean club at least entertained the idea of him playing third. Now that he's a bit more comfortable at the plate, could we get him some more reps in a corner outfield spot? Not a huge deal, but it would enable us to DH Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, etc. if those are veteran bats you want to keep in the lineup while you play Sano at 3B, Polanco, and other youngsters. (Or Sano at DH, or Mauer at DH and Plouffe or Sano at 1B, etc.) I know the ship has probably sailed with Mauer in the corner outfield, but I'd be curious to try it with Park, even if it's not his long-term position, as long as most of our present outfielders are a mess. I'd rather see Park take most of Rosario's reps if he's demoted, rather than Robbie Grossman. Having two exclusive 1B/DH guys that need to be in the lineup every day seems rather restricting.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Are these the Molitor comments on Berrios that everyone is referring to? I don't think those comments are that bad. Although like I've said before, the bad thing appears to have been calling him up when his control/command was already suspect for most of March and April. Maybe that is another argument for calling him up last year -- maybe it wasn't ideal for the 40-man roster or his innings limit, but Berrios apparently had his control/command working at the time at AAA. He'd still have adjustments to make in MLB, of course, but it seems like a better time to get his feet wet in MLB, when things are working at his current level, as compared to when they called him up this year when his control/command hadn't been working in spring training or AAA, and they seemed to want to get a look at him in MLB primarily for other reasons (open 40 man spot, desperate MLB club, etc.). I know the Twins usually have a reputation as a careful promoter/developer of prospects, a reputation that was used to justify holding Berrios back late last year, but it sure doesn't seem like they are applying careful consideration to the promotion and development of Berrios so far this year (plus a few other guys, as I've noted before).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    But -- who cares? It seems like we were all so excited to get the guy for 5/58 rather than 5/80 or whatever if we waited another year or two, we lost sight of how incredibly valuable he was at 2/16. It wouldn't take much for his 2/16 contract to generate equivalent excess value as the 5/58 deal over the 5/80, and with a lot less risk and a lot more flexibility.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams rarely trade for long-term contracts in July, and probably not at the Dozier/Ervin Santana level of player, even if they are not bad players. I am sure some team(s) will have interest in Plouffe and his shorter-term guarantee, but not necessarily at any price the Twins would want to accept. If the prospect is closer to Jason Adam / Alex Presley than to a top 100 guy, should the Twins do that? And is that level of return going to be affected if Plouffe sits a bit more over the next couple months for Polanco and Sano?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    While I think a few teams might claim him on waivers, that's a lot different than giving up anything of note for him. I'm guessing he's been discussed, and the likely return is org filler or "cash considerations" (i.e. the waiver price). Not really worth it for us until we need the roster spot, and it's not worth it to other teams to sweeten the offer when they can just wait until we need the roster spot.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if you don't like him as a 1B, I'm not sure why we'd completely eliminate NL teams. Vargas has options, so he doesn't have to be on the MLB roster right now. A team like the Rockies, with journeyman Mark Reynolds at 1B in the majors and no notable AAA 1B/DH to speak of, could easily claim Vargas and stash him until Reynolds is hurt or flipped in trade, at which point they will probably be out of the race and they won't really care if Vargas isn't a long-term 1B. Same with the Brewers (Chris Carter then nothing at AAA) And back to the AL, the Rays have Logan Morrison tanking at 1B, then they do have Steve Pearce although he might get called away to another position. They too have nothing at AAA for 1B/DH. Oakland and Seattle have similar situations. Not saying all of these teams would claim him for sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them did so, just as an interesting AAA/MLB placeholder for the next few months even if they shared your long-term outlook on him. If a guy has options left, it doesn't take a whole lot to get claimed on waivers.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think we'd lose Mastro. He's pretty much at the Doug Bernier stage of his career, I think he will accept whatever AAA job is given him. Especially in an org with as much outfield instability as the Twins, that has previously demonstrated a willingness to call him up.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Basically yes. If he was added back to the 40-man roster, the only way to get him back to AAA is passing through outright assignment waivers again (since he's out of options). And now that he has passed through once and been outrighted, he cannot be outrighted again without his consent (which was also the issue with Fien had he not been claimed, although he had an option left too). I wouldn't be surprised if he came back, especially seeing the short leashes for Meyer and Berrios and reluctance to start May, and if Milone did come back, it would probably be the season and we'd non-tender him this winter.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I remember endorsing the Hughes extension when it happened, but I'll admit, even without hindsight and in the context of his 2014 season, I was probably wrong. Hughes was on an incredible contract, 2/16 remaining for ages 29-30. We already had Nolasco and Ervin Santana signed for more money and longer terms. Even if you liked Hughes' recent performance and age more than Nolasco and Santana, it was probably foolish to forego the massive benefits of that below market contract and extend Hughes above and beyond the other pitchers. It kinda limited out options. Of course, it's not a franchise-sinking amount of money, as long as we don't let it. There's no reason it can't go to the pen, or fall behind a younger pitcher on the rotation depth chart, or eventually even be dumped like we considered with Nolasco recently. I'm not sure the Twins will do that, of course, and I don't know if it's the salary driving that, or their veteran preference driving that and the salary, but that's probably a separate problem than the Hughes extension on its own.
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