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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, fans may not be able to accurately predict player performance, and thus would often be better off doing nothing. But I hope we are holding our front office to a higher standard than that.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    When looking at the result of a long sample of games, there is never one single reason a team "didn't make it." They didn't have a great offense or rotation either -- if they wanted the bullpen to actually help them seal the deal, they probably needed to commit to improving it to a higher standard than just "better than before." By limiting their external upgrades to Jepsen/Cotts, and not fully committing to their internal upgrade in May, they didn't do that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    By the time Nunez would enter the conversation, he wouldn't really be being compared to other players at specific positions. He would be a "versatility" pick (to satisfy the one Twin requirement, of course), stashed at the bottom of the roster. Not unlike what you suggest for Abad, although pitchers can't really be versatility picks, so even he would stand out more than Nunez. Suzuki could not be a versatility pick either.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought it was pretty relevant to the point? Jepsen type relievers are not that expensive or hard to sign in free agency. The Twins have repeatedly passed on doing so, and were stuck trying to desperately fill a need in late July 2015. So they likely overpaid, and gave up a trade asset they wouldn't have otherwise.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The bullpen in late August saw us rely on O'Rourke and Graham in a close game against the Yankees (with predictable results), AJ Achter got a chance to blow a lead in September, and we were still trying to salvage something from Perkins in the season's final week -- not sure if that pen was really a "strength." I think the Jepsen addition was too little, too late if we weren't 100% committed to May in the pen (we weren't, we pulled him for a week in August for a spot start). But even best case, it was unnecessary because we knew about our bullpen needs before the season even began.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    In this case, I think it's fair to question if the Twins didn't try hard to move Arcia at that time. Once Hunter was signed, they barely had room for him, and they clearly weren't that high on him, or interested in seeing if he could be a platoon DH type. Sometimes a front office has to bet that a player is at his highest value, and it appears Arcia circa the 2014-2015 offseason is a good example of such a time, given how the team has used him and constructed its rosters since.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And Mauer wound up at .718 last year, and .732 the year before. He's got a .730 OPS over his last 15 months. I agree that I can't get worked up about his 2016 performance, because there is nothing unexpected about it, or the Twins continued usage of him.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    As for Chargois -- why are the Twins nominating a guy for the Futures Game, who should be in MLB instead? They did it with Trevor May a couple years ago too, when they were starting Yohan Pino in a lost season... and now in all likelihood, leaving Chargois down for this "honor" in a desperate attempt to convince another team to pay Jepsen's salary for the last month or two of the season...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    18 HR in the FSL is huge -- per Fangraphs, Stewart has a 177 wRC+ this year. Palka is at 157. Add in the fact that Stewart is over 2 years younger than Palka, and has a notably higher walk rate and a lower K rate -- it's easy to see why Stewart is considered a prospect for the Futures Game, and Palka is not.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you're mostly joking, but there should be no reason Berrios has to be shut down at any point this year, unless we suspect he is hurt. He threw 166 innings last year. Even if your comment became true (that he makes 4 more AAA starts, covering 30 innings), he'd be at 114 total for the season with only ~12 turns through the MLB rotation remaining. Even if he managed to average 6 innings per start in those, he'd finish at 186. That would be the smallest year-to-year innings increase, either in raw totals (20 innings) or by percentage (~12%), of his pro career to date. Of course, I certainly don't need to see him make 4 more starts in AAA either...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like Berrios got 21 days service time earlier this year (promoted April 26, optioned May 17). Jameson Taillon was a notable promotion after the expected "super 2" date this year, and he was promoted on June 8, or 21 days ago. (Taillon was later optioned back down for another 5 days, although of course Berrios probably wouldn't be promoted for another 4-5 days from today either.) So I'd guess that super 2 status would be unlikely for Berrios at this point. (Not that I really think the Twins care, or they probably wouldn't have promoted him on April 26th to begin with.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely agreed. But with a guy like Neshek, the pen would have been better throughout the first half -- the need wouldn't have been quite so acute in July. If we still wanted Jepsen, we could have afforded to play hardball with Tampa to get Jepsen cheaper (seriously, with $5 mil coming to him for 2016, I suspect Tampa wasn't far from letting him go just for salary relief, if not in July than at the end of the season if we were still interested in him).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree Hu isn't a great prospect, but he was still an asset we gave away unnecessarily (primarily because we didn't have the foresight to sign a better reliever). I don't think he'd rank highly for the Twins or be vital to our future, but we could be talking about packaging him with our other modest assets to get a better return right now, if we hadn't been so cheap as to ignore our obvious bullpen needs entering 2015.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That, and the Jepsen deal was only necessary because their big bullpen acquisition the previous winter was Tim Stauffer, plus retaining Duensing, Aaron Thompson, etc. And we didn't give up Hu for just 28 innings of Jepsen -- we gave him up for those 28 innings plus the opportunity to pay Jepsen $5 mil for 2017 too for negative return. Sign Neshek for 2/12 prior to 2015, and you don't need Jepsen at the deadline.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I recognize now that this is a different point than most others are making. Yes, if some team wants to give us young talent in exchange for Santana, absolutely we should do it. I suspect most here would agree. But it's not happening, so it's a moot point.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    People are assuming it not just because he appeared in relief -- but because they also haven't said anything to the contrary. Teams usually announce changes like this. The relief appearance, with the 96 MPH velocity, AND the absence of an announcement strongly suggest that they are not changing anything in regards to May at the present time. Do you think the Twins are actively moving him back to the rotation right now and are just keeping it secret? For what reason? Don't tell me it's to boost the trade value of Santana, Nolasco, and Milone...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a fair point too. Santana isn't exactly trending in a great direction. I could see an argument to let someone else take his salary now if possible, like the Padres did with Shields, and then this winter grab someone like Rich Hill, or even a couple cheaper bounceback guys. Although it's not clear yet that Santana is at the cliff where Shields was. And if the outcome of losing Santana is a more guaranteed spot for Nolasco, Hughes, Milone, Dean, etc., that's not a good thing either.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick wrote, "May made his first rehab appearance in Rochester as a reliever yesterday, which isn't the most promising sign, but hopefully the plan changes." The relief appearance is a relatively small component of the complaint. It's the larger plan (or lack thereof).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be fun, I just don't see Santana as that chip. Some team might be willing to take his contract in the right circumstances, he could even be an August waiver claim, but I can't see anyone bidding to exchange real value for it. (Which is kind of the problem with a lot of Twins players, not unrelated to the "not a lot of good" happening this season...)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is really complaining just because his first rehab appearance was in relief. I think people are complaining that there has been no mention of a plan for him to start again this season, which should be a rather obvious objective by now.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Nathan had literally two chances, even counting 2004's game 2. So did Crain (lost game 1 in 2010, gave up costly insurance run in game 1 in 2006 to Oakland). So did others. The offense collectively had many more chances, here are the Twins total runs scored in various playoff series: 2010: 7 runs in 3 games 2009: 6 runs in 3 games 2006: 7 runs in 3 games 2003: 6 runs in 4 games They did score 17 runs in 4 games in 2004, but Nathan also had a save in game 1 that year, and pitched 5 high-leverage scoreless innings that series sandwiched around the 2 runs charged to him as he was pushed past 50 pitches in game 2...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    History doesn't seem to support Cafardo. I'm having a hard time coming up with a comparable type/liability as Santana ever being moved midseason. It's not like there hasn't been weak SP markets before. James Shields might be the closest comp, and that was an unusual move -- the exception that proves the rule, so to speak. Of course, Cafardo also suggested someone could try to acquire Joe Mauer at the deadline, which tells me his suggestions might not exactly be based in reality.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Counting on Perkins to open 2016 was a pretty massive mistake on the Twins part. If we liked Cishek, I absolutely would have given him the closer's spot to open the season if it meant landing him at the price the Mariners got him. (In fact, many suggested that very option as it would have allowed Perkins to be a lefty setup option, if he rebounded, meaning we wouldn't need to sign Sipp/Bastardo or rely too much on Abad/Rogers.) And of course, Cishek is just one of several examples of teams making modest FA reliever investments that pay off. Pick a non-closer too like Kelley if you want. The larger point against the Twins bullpen strategy remains.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course Cishek scuffled last year. That's why he was available for 2/10 in the first place. He was a decent bounceback candidate, not old (just turned 30 this month), plus bonus "closer mojo." I don't think anyone is arguing that the Twins had to sign a great reliever, coming off a definitively great season. Just another higher-upside option to lessen our dependence on Perkins/Jepsen/May, and give us another potential asset if the we didn't contend this year.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How are they similar deals? Remaining obligation: Kazmir: 2 months, ~$4 mil Lackey: 1.3 seasons, ~$5 mil (Boston also sent cash with him to offset some of that) Peavy: 2 months, ~$5 mil (again Boston also sent cash with him to offset some of that) McCarthy: 2 months, ~$5 mil (Arizona also sent cash with him to offset some of that) Ervin Santana: 2.5 seasons, ~$35 mil, plus a vesting option There is definitely a trend to the deals you brought up, but Santana doesn't fit that trend. He also lags Kazmir (166 ERA+) and Lackey (111 ERA+) in terms of performance at the time of their deals.
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