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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the comments above, Jose Berrios isn't exactly a hot commodity right now. He still has value, of course, but he's not going to contribute to a major trade package at the moment like Jose De Leon or Dansby Swanson, or some other top prospect not coming off an 8.02 ERA season. For that matter, I'm not sure how much value 2 years of Brian Dozier would offer the White Sox -- they already have a couple average-ish guys in the middle infield. The only way Dozier makes any sense is if they are going for it in 2017-2018, in which case trading Sale doesn't make any sense. If they are going for it in 2017-2018, it would make much more sense to keep Sale and try patching the black holes on their roster, like catcher, CF, and the back of the rotation. (Arguably that's what they have been trying to do the last few years -- the Sale talks are an indication they are willing to break from that to rebuild with an elite prospect package.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting is that the poster who made that observation had not previously participated in this thread. They were probably looking at the page/comment count and assumed it was all angst, when actually it was mostly a discussion about waiver rules, with a bit of "Where in the World is Adam Brett Walker?" mixed in.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting to remember that Arcia wasn't lost (by us) on waivers, but was actually traded to the Rays for a nominal amount of cash. I suspect if you added restrictions to waiver claims (like they have to spend X days on the roster or be offered back to their original team), more teams would simply manufacture trades like this or a similar variety to skirt the restriction.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    You have to understand, when reading comments here, that the quantity of angst isn't necessarily correlated with player quality. These comments are solicited when a player is in a transaction, or likely to be in a transaction. Hence why Plouffe generated more press than Dozier last July, even though Dozier is the better player. For that matter, Nunez, Abad, and Suzuki probably generated more press than Plouffe in July too. That's why guys on the 25-man and 40-man bubble will always generate more comments, and it will seem like stronger opinions.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    But arbitration suppresses salaries pretty well, especially a second-time arb eligible player like Dozier would have been this winter. It's difficult to be THAT significantly underpaid at that point. So the "cost control" aspect of the contract is only saving ~$3 mil at this point, maybe a few more million next winter depending on his 2017 performance. Obviously, there is nothing we could change about this contract that would bring Urias into play (other than perhaps replacing Dozier's signature with Mike Trout's ). But he's really not that much better of a trade piece today, owed $15 mil over the next 2 years, than he would have been owed ~$21 mil or whatever through arbitration over the same time. ~$30 mil for 3 years of control would probably make him a little better trade target, and of course an option year would have been best. (Still no Urias, though!)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Tapani tallied 19.2 WAR in 5.5 Twins seasons; Mack 19.6 in 5. So pretty close, actually. Tapani is clearly behind Radke (Tapani's Twins career actually resembles the second, lesser half of Radke's), but Tapani is also clearly ahead of, say, Erickson, Milton, and probably even Baker too (due to peak and health).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Nice article, thanks for sharing! I appreciate the realistic trade proposals (i.e. no Urias).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It worked out OK, but I'm not sure it mattered that much to his current trade value. What would Dozier be slated to receive in arbitration? I really don't know. An extra $3 mil this winter, maybe? Maybe another extra $3 mil next winter, if he has a good 2017? Not nothing, of course, but not really much of a factor -- the Dodgers, Nationals, etc. really aren't going to see their interest shift, of their offers significantly improve, based on that amount. As Jeremy notes, an extra year or two of control (or options) would have been a big factor. TR could have possibly gotten that if he had been willing to commit a year earlier, perhaps?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably also worth noting that Wolfson said Nightengale's "pique" tweet was "more rumor than substance".
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR relays from Wolfson that the "piqued" report is more rumor than substance at this point. Also, Dozier was previously planning to be at the meetings anyway for a marketing commitment. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/four-to-five-teams-interested-in-brian-dozier.html
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Among position players. Actually Kevin Tapani led the whole team in WAR, with a whopping 6.8.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Bill Smith had us in the Cliff Lee conversation back in 2010. And that was the last time we had an asset or need worthy of serious trade drama (although I too understand that TR wouldn't be pushing Dozier like this).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    On the other hand, does it really get watered down if no one remembers who has previously been inducted?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Still seems too high. I don't think a trade is ever that likely unless the selling team has a more obvious motivation to move the player (like a deadline deal of an expiring contract). The Twins motivation here is much murkier -- I still think it is most likely that he stays a Twin.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Puig is only guaranteed $17.5 mil for the next 2 years. He will have another season of arb control beyond that, but nothing guaranteed of course.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Under my plan, he'd only spend a third of the season on the DL, and he wouldn't have to be inactive during that time -- he could be in extended spring training (he might go there anyway). It might prove to be a lost season developmentally, but Rule 5 seasons often are. Actually guys coming off surgery are kind of ideal Rule 5 candidates in some ways, because their development has already been interrupted -- they are likely to have a slow development year while they work their way back anyway. As opposed to taking a healthy pitcher and cutting their innings and activity for a year, artificially interrupting them. But I think we all agree Thorpe is a long shot to be picked.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not saying it would be easy, but a team would have a built-in excuse/reason to leave Thorpe on the DL for 2 months, give him a month of rehab in the minors, and then put him on the MLB roster for July through September if they still wanted him. Heck, the Brewers almost did that with Zach Jones last year (except for adding him to the MLB roster), it's not out of the question someone might try it with the higher-upside Thorpe. Although I agree it does seem unlikely, so I am comfortable with leaving him unprotected.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I should have checked! I guess we were only at 39 before, so they added Castro and dropped Landa to stay at 39.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Dodgers already spent some of their prospect cache in the Hill/Reddick trade. If a few of their guys really are untouchable, there probably isn't a worthwhile package to be had there anymore.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Someone still needs to come off the 40-man when they make the Jason Castro signing official too, right?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Castillo grades out poorly in framing, I read? Maybe he would be a good platoon partner for Castro? Of course, I doubt we ready to completely give up on Murphy, and I am sure Castillo will have better suitors.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought about mentioning the wacky weed in jest, but for players on the bubble like Walker they probably can't take the risk anyway.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It is a pretty compelling argument from Walker's POV. I am all for improving the lot of marginal and MILB players, but it shouldn't come at the expense of other marginal players (and add another benefit for the teams) which is what most of these proposed waiver rules changes would accomplish.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Health insurance continues through the offseason. First class airfare for team directed travel. If he got tendered a contract by Baltimore yesterday, I am not sure but perhaps that locks him into a higher base salary for 2017: http://athletewealth.com/mlb40man/
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, some players would get claimed by teams that truly want them. Those guys aren't generally the kind that get passed around on waivers though. These are more marginal cases, who nobody has a true need for unless the timing of waiver availability is absolutely perfect. With your propposed rule, a lot more guys will simply go unclaimed earlier and miss out on salary and benefits.
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