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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe that's almost exactly what Tommy Lasorda said, in his brief tenure as Dodgers GM when, in third place at midseason, 12.5 games out of first and 8 games out of the wild card spot, he traded the #2 prospect in the game (Konerko) for a half-season of closer Jeff Shaw. Clearly "100 times out of 100" just doesn't make logical sense. We all agree there are limits to "win now at the expense of prospects", it's just a matter of defining that limit, right? While I've generally defended White Sox on the "win now" side of that line, they've failed at it long enough that I think it's fair to shift to the other side of the line. If I were a White Sox fan (heaven forbid! ), though, I would have wanted a recent dice roll without Robin Ventura at the helm. Maybe some new voices in the front office too -- I'm not confident they necessarily made the best deal here either.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on what you need. If I already have a playoff team, I'd take the risk on Hill. If I need to fill out a rotation just to get to the playoffs, I'd take Ervin. (And if I'm pretty far from the playoffs, I'd probably take the risk on Hill too -- if he works out, he's easier to flip for an impact prospect. I think teams will continue to have interest in Ervin, but will ultimately be fairly wishy-washy about ponying up much to acquire him,)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Assuming Landa has already signed, he is still eligible for the Rule 5 draft. (The draft is tomorrow, Thursday Dec. 8.) After the Twins non-tendered him, any team could have signed Landa and given him a 40-man roster spot. (And he would have taken a 40-man spot if it was offered elsewhere, better pay and benefits.) The Twins played it well because they correctly identified no one else was willing to give Landa a 40-man roster spot right now, much less make him a Rule 5 pick. But they didn't sneak him past anybody, procedurally.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, we are positive that Urias is untouchable. Urias just came up at age 19 and had MLB success. The only reason we didn't see him more in October is they were protecting his arm. He's graduated from prospect to budding star. By comparison, Giolito is 22 years old and kind of scuffled in his debut. Notice who the Nationals said was untouchable in trade talks? Trea Turner. Notice who the Yankees refuse to consider dealing (and actually cleared a spot for)? Gary Sanchez. Braves? Dansby Swanson. I don't know if those guys will continue performing like superstars, but Urias is closer to that group than he is to the prospects being moved and discussed this winter. And of course, even if there was a hypothetical package that could make Urias not untouchable (touchable? ), it wouldn't be led by Brian Dozier.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The Santana situation was handled poorly, but mainly because we were still a contending team and draft pick FA compensation was better back then. Also Santana had a full no-trade clause which he was leveraging. Yes, we still didn't pick a great package, but those are 3 pretty huge factors that don't apply at all to the current Dozier situation.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps you didn't mean to cherry-pick, but you didn't pick any data that was particularly useful either. (Although I'd argue that "received in trade prior to any major league experience" and "Acquired in mid-season trades" are pretty big cherry picks -- by that categorization, Anthony Rizzo is excluded from your analysis, as would be Moncada, Urias, De Leon, Giolito, etc., basically every top prospect being discussed this winter.) Of course most good players are products of the draft. That's because there are vastly more draft picks than there are trades (particularly trades of consequence). Why do you say "2-3 years"? There is really no way Dozier is retained beyond 2 years, or maybe more accurately, there is no way we should want him beyond 2 years. Either he continues performing at a good level and demands a massive commitment for his age 32-36 seasons, or his performance craters over the next 2 years which makes him affordable but not particularly valuable. Your trade examples seem skewed too. Nathan was good for a number of years, but the 20 year old lotto ticket part of that trade (Liriano) contributed to just as many playoff seasons and even returned our eventual starting SS upon his exit. Also, the Delmon trade was a failure in part because we over-valued MLB experience and under-valued prospect potential. Any particular reason you didn't mention the Knoblauch trade?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I think there are only 2-3 such Walker boosters. What they lack in numbers, though, they make up in passion.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    No. The Dodgers financial thing is way overblown, but seriously, if they really needed to save money, they would have passed on re-signing Rich Hill, and they sure as heck wouldn't be dealing Urias who might have the best projected production-to-salary ratio in all of MLB over the next few years.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Nationals interested in Quintana now: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/nationals-interested-in-jose-quintana.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79592
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Wilson Ramos to the Rays on a 2 year deal pending physical (no other details yet): http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/wilson-ramos-could-be-close-to-signing-perhaps-with-rays.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79599 Edit: Coke to "crapforks" (I've never typed that before! )
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, I think Bollinger just calls those 3 players "trade pieces" but he doesn't actually say they have fielded calls about them (unlike Dozier).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    By this logic, I guess we also don't know for certain that the Angels wouldn't be willing to entertain Dozier for Trout. I trust that our new GM has already figured this out. Otherwise, if there was even the slightest indication that Urias might be available in a Dozier trade, Falvey would have already failed by letting the Dodgers get off the phone without getting that deal done somehow.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure the Dodgers would want ESAN...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    No. Buchholz and/or Pomeranz will get dealt. Boston just acquired relief help in Thornburg, and also signed Mitch Moreland, and isn't really willing to subtract from the big league club right now either (other than Travis Shaw who was pretty marginal lately anyway).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I view the freedom to deal Dozier as another one of the silver linings of a 103 loss season. There just isn't a likely path to contention for 2017, so we can afford to sacrifice some assets from that goal, with an eye toward seasons beyond. Add to it that Dozier is getting older, and wants to cash in as soon as his current deal expires, and is coming off a career season amidst an otherwise weak 2B market, and it's a perfect storm. Obviously we can't just trade him for anything, but I think the moment a reasonable offer is on the table, we should accept.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I heard Frazier might be on the move. Any rumblings about Quintana, Abreu, Eaton? Or do the White Sox think they can still get back into contention without Sale, sorta like the 2008 Twins after dealing Johan?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought it was the exchange rate. 103 US losses = 106 Canadian
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Chris Sale to the Red Sox: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/red-sox-to-acquire-chris-sale.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79501 Moncada leads the haul back to the White Sox.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, both can be "true" in the sense that the Yankees don't want their incumbent infielders to know. But they are probably under no illusion that what Cashman says to a reporter will affect the Dodgers. I think the amount of specific outright lies between actual GMs is far lower than you are suggesting.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Last I heard, Morneau was intending to play in 2017 if someone would sign him. The logical time to retire was after 2015, but he appears determined to hang on until the bitter end.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt teams can really control that. The Twins can tell.the Dodgers they are talking to the Yankees, and if the Yankees still deny it, they just look like fools. Possibly, the Yankees issue a public denial to keep the confidence of the player they would be replacing, but I assure you all the teams involved know who is actually involved (as much as it would affect them and their offers, of course).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Not likely. The reason that those high end closers are getting paid is that most teams do not have an internal equivalent. Not so for Perkins or Kintzler, most teams have their own rehab project or journeyman or better on whom they can roll the dice first. If those guys have a solid first half, you might be able to place them somewhere, but right now, you're not getting any value back.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Me too, although I think the moment that 2 of those guys are on the table, I don't bother waiting around to haggle about the lower prospect.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I would endorse any of these!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. But at least I feel like the opportunity will be adequately explored with the new front office.
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