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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    But Bradley is a highly leveraged part of their pen. Competitive MLB teams don't trade those guys in 2017, they try to ride them to a title. They probably see him as their Andrew Miller. Also, the Diamondbacks have Drury at 2B with a 104 wRC+ overall versus Dozier's 101. True, Drury has struggled this season vs LHP, but he is a RHB and it is only 65 PA. He had a 105 wRC+ in 141 PA vs LHP last year. I think they'd need to bring back Dave Stewart before you could realistically pitch Bradley for Dozier.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Trading Rosario or Polanco could probably net... a long term asset like Rosario or Polanco.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Holy cow, Jose Ramirez has been good. 145 wRC+ tops Sano, Bryant, etc. 2nd best among 3B to Rendon (148), good defense too. 0.6-0.9 advantage in WAR over Sano so far...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Donaldson's got about half the PAs of Sano, so 8 HR isn't too bad. 130 wRC+ vs 140. Obviously health should matter too, though. Donaldson's about equal or better in WAR per PA as well, which highlights his advantage on defense.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure to buy meaningful long-term assets, we'd have to trade some of our future, no? Doubtful that we're getting Gray or Cole or whomever with scraps...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The Diamondbacks aren't looking like sellers. Just 2 games off the Astros for best record in MLB!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the same team that is clinging to Breslow, saying the extra rest from the all star break should help him. I could see them risking Melotakis just because they are being obstinate about other spots on the 40-man.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Absolutely nothing has changed since when? A year ago there were doubts about him being able to pitch at all, or at least not above scrub level. But here he is, healthy for almost a year, pitching to a league average or better ERA/FIP in MLB (albeit averaging only 5 IP per start, with the usual control issues). Yeah, he's not appreciably closer to achieving his former ceiling, but I wouldn't say absolutely nothing has changed with him, or that it's likely he won't amount to anything. He seems moderately useful right now.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gonsalves threw 7 IP last night for the third consecutive start. 25 batters faced, 101 pitches.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Gee was pulled after 3 scoreless innings last night, at 47 pitches. Seth's game report says they limited him because of his recent inactivity. Could he still be on the Twins radar for Saturday? Only 2 days rest after 47 pitches might be cutting it close? Otherwise he would also be the most obvious candidate to DFA in favor of a different Rochester starter.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer was back to "effectively wild" vs the Dodgers last night: 6 IP, only 1 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 4 K, 99 pitches (54 strikes)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. His IP/GS average since his pitch count debut this year (6 starts) is pretty much equal with Berrios' AA stint in 2015. His pitches per batter faced are a hair higher, though, which sounds like what you are getting at (3.72 for Berrios, 3.94 for Gonsalves). I have to admit I don't really have a frame of reference for pitches per batter faced, but just eyeballing other AA starters, the following guys have already been promoted to AAA or MLB this season: Luis Castillo (Reds) - 3.93 pitches per batter faced Andrew Moore (Mariners) - 3.86 Brent Honeywell (Rays) - 3.86 Chance Adams (Yankees) 3.96 A reliever, but Burdi was at 3.90 this season before he got hurt. Should Gonsalves' 3.94 really be considered a deal-breaker, just for a promotion to AAA at this point? It's already an improvement on his 4.18 mark from his AA debut last year.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand your point, but I wonder if you're expecting an unbiased precision to the whole thing that even the Twins couldn't possibly deliver. I am sure they have lots of data, but I am sure a lot of decisions are as much art as science. There's a limit to how long you can shrug your shoulders about sample size and such over an already mediocre 37 year old reliever.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt Breslow bravely facing this injury is what inspired the offense to score twice in the first inning tonight.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure I understand. Right now Gonsalves is on pace to have 117 innings when the minor league season ends. My point is, if you want him to get more than that, in preparation for 2018, you'd like him to work beyond the end of the minor league season this year. And given his performance and proximity, that should potentially be in MLB. But, the longer they wait to promote him to AAA, the less likely they will promote him to MLB yet this season. I know, in theory they could promote him whenever and wherever they want, but we all know in practice it's not as likely with notably less AAA time (think of it as an extension of the general disinclination to promote directly from AA). And if they wait until September 1st to even consider it, they are probably more likely to push the whole thing off by saying there's not enough time left in the season to justify clearing a 40-man spot, etc. So, to ensure he could be up for September, he should probably be ready for consideration to debut anytime in August. He's almost certainly already disqualified from making his MLB debut on August 5th, like Duffey did in 2015 (Duffey made his AAA debut on May 23rd that year). Given his performance, I don't think his injury should have held him back from potentially debuting in early August. (Obviously if he didn't adapt well to AAA or anything, you wouldn't have to promote him, but it would be nice if the option was more realistically -- not just theoretically -- on the table.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously makes this a solid move. We'll also still have control of Melotakis through 2019 if we want, assuming no one selects him in Rule 5. (Although I feel kind of bad even admitting that, a guy in Melotakis' position should probably have the right to free agency after this season, but that only comes after the 2nd outright assignment or if he had 3+ years MLB service time.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    What a birthday present for Melotakis!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If we fall out of the race, they could activate Breslow and let him finish the season/career gracefully, and give him a nominal chance to "showcase" himself for other teams, to the extent that's possible anymore. In the meantime, I guess he can hang around the team in a coach/leadership capacity too, at least until he needs a rehab assignment. I'd rather have the 40-man spot, personally.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Rogers and Duffey are young, in terms of experience. You'd pretty much have to credit Breslow and Belisle with most of their 2017 improvement, though, to justify their continued presence on the roster (and like I said in my previous post, that would also justify an extravagant coaching deal).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    This is basically an appeal to authority argument, which isn't necessarily bad in truly nuanced cases, but I don't think we're at a truly nuanced case here. Belisle has been consistently allowing runs in close games for 3 months now. Whatever his issue is, it's not a blip in the radar. He's 37 years old with a modest recent track record, and no recent history of high leverage usage. That's enough evidence to draw some conclusions. In order to credit Breslow with enough leadership, leading to tangible results in others, to offset his own performance and roster concerns, we'd probably be justified offering him a multiyear contact as pitching coach at ~$4 mil annual salary.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is really saying we'd have to rely on those three, are they? Just keeping the possibility open. If we don't promote them to AAA until after the Futures Game or something, we pretty much preclude the possibility. They can still be aggressive at the trade deadline, but having those guys with some innings under their belts at AAA would give them options to augment that (or cover for it, in case the trade deadline isn't fruitful, which is a definite possibility regardless of our willingness to be aggressive).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't the injury actually open the door to expect Gonsalves in Minnesota in September? If he had been healthy opening day, he'd almost certainly be viewed as a candidate to be shut down at the end of the minor league season like Berrios 2015, Meyer 2014, etc. But when he missed the first part of the season, we had to be looking ahead at a plan to keep him active through September. So I would have probably pushed him to AAA already, so he could potentially be an option to start in August if needed like Duffey circa 2015. If the AAA transition wasn't smooth, you could always fall back on an AFL stint to give him some more innings instead.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure the bullpen was that beat up heading into Tuesday. Thanks to Berrios, only Belisle (4 pitches), Boshers (4 pitches), and Busenitz (15) threw on Monday. And thanks to Santana, only Boshers (18) and Kintzler (9) threw the day before that. So for our Tuesday pen, we had 4 guys with at least 2 full days of rest, 1 more with 1 whole day, and 1-2 more coming off fairly minimal use the day before. The problem is not that they were beat up, it was the composition. A rested Breslow means nothing for contributing either innings or effectiveness. We've got a few guys who are too good to use when we're trailing, and a bunch of guys who aren't trusted / able to get many outs regardless of game situation.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    How much are they giving back through poor performance? Belisle actually blew a lead in his only appearance in Cleveland this past weekend, and was bailed out by the offense, Rogers, and Kintzler. And how much are they complicating the roster? Breslow was unavailable for the series opener in Cleveland after an inefficient attempt at mop-up relief on Thursday, which necessitated adding Gee apparently and playing with a very short / nonexistent bench. And even if they had a positive effect, at what point can they remove one or both of these training wheels from the roster?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Long shot, I know, but for the sake of completeness, Chattanooga's web site currently has: Wednesday: Gonsalves Thursday: Jorge Friday: TBD (Romero's turn) I can't imagine Le Blanc and Derek Rodriguez being factors in this decision. Likewise Paul Clemens, other than he might fill in for someone else at AA.
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