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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Signing an ace would push our current 1-5 starters down to 2-6. That's probably a better way to improve depth than acquiring more 4-5-6 types. You make it sound like the Twins could only have one ~4 WAR pitcher. Having Berrios add 1-2 WAR would be nice, but so would adding Darvish's ~4 WAR over, say, Hughes/Sanchez -- without costing any prospect capital, and not making us overly reliant on the vagaries of the trade market (and helping us from day 1 of the season rather than day 1 after the trade deadline too).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. Here's a comparison of where we stood on opening day 2017 vs 2018, where I've tried to roughly average bWAR and fWAR. Entering 2017: Santana coming off a 3-4 WAR season Santiago coming off a ~1 WAR season Gibson coming off a ~1 WAR season Hughes coming off surgery Mejia with 1 MLB game Duffey coming off a ~0 WAR season Berrios with 14 MLB games Jorge with zero MLB games Slegers with zero MLB games Gonsalves with zero MLB games Romero with zero MLB games Entering 2018: Santana coming off a 3-4 WAR season but scheduled to miss at least the first month Odorizzi coming off a ~0 WAR season Gibson coming off a ~0 WAR season Hughes coming off another surgery Mejia coming off a ~1 WAR season Duffey hasn't started a game in over a year Berrios coming off a ~2 WAR season Sanchez coming off a ~0 WAR season May coming off surgery, hasn't started a game in over 2 years Slegers with 3 MLB games Jorge with 2 MLB games Gonsalves with zero MLB games Romero with zero MLB games I'd pick the 2018 group, but its primary improvement is Berrios. Still quite a bit of risk, and not a ton of upside -- I guess Odorizzi is a year removed from a ~3 WAR season, but lest we forget, so was Gibson entering 2017.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    14 starts, actually. But in 2017, Odorizzi gave up 4.98 runs per 9 innings against the AL East, vs. 5.06 runs per 9 innings versus everyone else. The AL East was not why he struggled in 2017.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought about typing the same thing, but then I remembered Tampa just traded for Cron and DFA'd Dickerson for no particularly good reason either.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, Mejia has 1 option year remaining, after using his first 2 in 2016 and 2017.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not saying it is a bad trade today, I endorse it. Just that "Palacios won't play in MLB for awhile" doesn't guarantee this will be a win for the Twins in the final accounting. Odorizzi still has to perform. In your example, trading a 4th round pick for a starter is fine, but if you passed up capable free agents to make the trade... the "starter" still has to perform.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Odorizzi could be 0 WAR, or even slightly positive, and still be a "negative" for the Twins, given they are stopping their search for a better starter with him.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The Tampa outfield was pretty well regarded -- Kiermaier especially. The Rays defense overall ranked pretty highly.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Fangraphs actually said he got -1.2 wins in 2017 from stranding runners (or a lack thereof).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Per Fangraphs, his low BABIP was worth 2.2 wins alone in 2017 ("BIP-Wins"). Even with a .271 BABIP in 2015-2016, they had him gaining 1+ wins from low BABIP each of those seasons -- I guess it was still low relative to league/park.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It's weird, usually when there is a BABIP discrepancy, you see it in bWAR vs fWAR. But both of those peg him at replacement level for 2017.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, park factors include Price home vs road, the Tampa hitters home vs road, etc. And some park factor evidence of Tampa as a pitcher's park predates Price too. Not to say park factors are super-precise, but I think they indicate a lean pretty well. I just don't see a case that Odorizzi should expect a park benefit with this move.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps some, although Tampa's pitcher's road performance is in that calculation too. As well as Tampa's hitters, home vs road. I think some skepticism of park factors is understandable, but it's hard to make a case that moving from Tampa to Minnesota is going to give a pitcher a park boost. At best, it could be neutral.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Tampa's ballpark has rated as a pitcher's park for 9 straight seasons, and even before then, it was never more than neutral. It has never rated as a hitter's park. And the AL East was not an offensive powerhouse last year. The 4 non-Tampa teams in the AL East averaged 770 runs last year. The AL Central and West teams averaged 767.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Only partially guaranteed, in some cases. Like arbitration eligible players, and apparently Sanchez's deal, whenever it becomes official.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that Odorizzi gave up a lot of unearned runs last year. His ERA was 4.14 but his RA9 was 5.02, which is not that far off from Gibson's. In a pitcher's park, that explains why his 2017 bWAR was in line with Gibson too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I like the trade too, but I think some are overrating the "AL East" effect, especially recently. In 2017, the Yankees were the only east team in the top 5 in AL runs scored, Toronto was last, Orioles 8th. In 2016, the Red Sox had a big year, but the Yankees were only 12th.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't understand it either. Cron is cheaper, I guess, and maybe they are just trying to generate some immediate trade offers for Dickerson? Will be interesting to see what they can fetch for him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure Molitor and Pohlad quite "echoed" it. They actually added a ton of qualifiers.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Darvish's contract was front-loaded, so it would represent less than 20% of payroll in later years. It also includes an opt out clause, which reduces the potential long-term upside, but also potentially nullifies the riskiest years 3-6. Its no-trade restrictions are loosened in years 5-6 too, so potentially the team could swap it for a different asset near the end, spreading out the owed salary over more years. And any long-term deals for Buxton, etc. would be structured with the Darvish commitment in mind, with salaries plateauing through his year 6, and increasing after his deal is over. With 6 years to plan, the deal would have been no serious impediment to Twins efforts to lock up homegrown talent, should the need arise. It may have precluded a similar elite FA signing over the next few years, but the odds of multiple such opportunities being available to the Twins in a short time span are virtually zero anyway.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, if the Twins don't really deserve any blame for their Darvish offer, does that mean they don't really deserve any credit for the Addison Reed deal either? After all, the team just made the offer, they didn't have any control over whether the player actually signed, right?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like the "split contract" reporting was inaccurate -- we likely will be unable to send him to AAA. This will create the usual "opt out" drama at the end of spring training, just with ~$2 mil extra on the line.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    As we have discussed, I don't agree with you about using the young arms in MLB quite yet -- but the split nature of this Sanchez deal seems to imply that he's ticketed for AAA starts even if he can't crack the MLB rotation. I suspect we could all unify in our dislike for that plan!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure about that. A "flier" usually doesn't come with a 40-man roster spot and guaranteed salary (albeit only $500k). A lot of people seem to be assuming he will be cut this spring if he doesn't make the team, but how often do teams give a guy a 40-man spot on Feb. 16 and release him by April 1? There seems to be 2 possible outcomes here: 1. Sanchez makes the rotation, gets $2.5 mil 2. Sanchez goes to the AAA rotation, makes $500k Neither one looks good from my vantage point. You've got all offseason to come up with an improved rotation plan, and Anibal Sanchez is part of it? Or he's taking away opportunities from about 5-6 younger guys who need to be starting in AAA?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't there a theory the Twins passed on Darvish because they could get both Lynn and Cobb for the same money? If nothing else, the Sanchez signing and putting him on the 40-man roster would seem to put that long-shot theory to rest.
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