Otto von Ballpark

Forsythe still has ~$2 mil remaining in 2018 salary. Getting rid of some of that wouldn't be *nothing*, exactly. Although I don't see a fit on any remaining contenders. Schoop has been awful for the Brewers but they're probably not looking for yet another external infielder. Maybe if someone wants a RH pinch hitter?

And just so I don't seem too anti-Forsythe, ZiPS still pegs him around a 2 WAR player. You could certainly do worse. But that's also assuming power (.137-.160 ISO) that he hasn't shown in 2 years now, which might be an unnecessary risk to take, given all of our resources and needs.

Not to pick on you, but what moves do you see that would require saving this money in the infield? Check out the potential FA list here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html Keep in mind, Murphy last signed for 3/37, and Lowrie for 4/28 -- and now they are 3-4 years older. Dozier and Escobar probably aren't getting any more than those deals either. I think you might be overrating the financial savings of signing Forsythe for 1/4 or whatever, and under-rating the decrease in quality (and meaningful position flexibility -- a guy who can cover SS, or whose bat could play at 1B/DH could be huge for this team).

I think you are actually over-rating Gordon here. I think he gets his feet wet in MLB some time in the 2019 season, but I doubt he actually forces himself into the lineup at 2B before season's end. There's absolutely no reason we can't sign someone to play 2B and give them reasonable assurance that the job is theirs for 2019.

In some ways, he hasn't actually rebounded from his LAD form. His isolated power (SLG minus AVG) with the Twins is .082, virtually the same as it was with the Dodgers this year (.083). His combined LAD/MIN season BABIP is now up to .316, above his career mark of .302, almost up to his career high of .323. And his season wRC+ is still only 82, and he's barely above replacement overall (0.3 fWAR). Another way to look at it: his OPS with the Twins is 1.031, with a .537 BABIP. Substitute a .317 BABIP, and that OPS plummets to .680 -- which, lo and behold, is very close to his mediocre combined LAD/MIN OPS of .656. (And that's assuming that his drop in K% stays -- career 20.5%, down to 14.8% with the Twins. Normalize that, and his Twins OPS would actually be .642, worse than his Dodgers OPS.) I'm not trying to rain on any parades -- Forsythe has absolutely had a couple successful weeks. But there's almost nothing "projectionable" in that two week performance at all.

Not really "tons of flexibility." You could shift him to 3rd. He can't play shortstop, and his bat likely won't play at first or DH. If Sano is healthy and capably manning third, you're basically stuck with Forsythe at second, or on the bench as one of two utility infielders (you'd need someone else to play short).

What's even better than acquiring an expiring contract? Acquiring an expired contract!

No doubt. I wasn't trying to exclude earlier years, just noting with some surprise that he had managed to stay pretty darn healthy the last 2 years. 2015 he missed a month or so midseason, still managed close to 500 PA combined minors/majors. 2014 was a bad one, similar to 2018, pretty much a lost season in the minors. Not good that he has had 2 such seasons in 6 years as a pro... Maybe worth noting his wrist has been a consistent source of trouble. In spring training 2014, he injured it on a dive in the field; he aggravated it in May on a slide into a base. September 2017 he reported wrist issues but played through it, and now in July 2018 he was on the DL for a wrist sprain -- just from swinging the bat, apparently? It hasn't even been HBPs. I don't know what you do about that. Some really cool wristbands? In between, there has been a concussion (2014), thumb sprain (2015), groin strain (2017), migraines and a fractured toe (2018)...

Where are you going to get a SP upgrade in May? From AAA, perhaps, but that is about it.

I think I would need to know the terms and what other moves we make to fully judge it, but I think I would rather have Murphy even at 3 years. Even if you don't want to "block" Gordon at 2B, Murphy is a vastly better hitter than Forsythe, enough that his bat would fit at 1B or DH too. And the Twins probably have enough resources to do it. Unless they somehow sign Machado, Harper, and Kershaw.

Also, just noticed on Buxton's transaction log, as much as he does seem to be injured -- he didn't spend a single day on the DL all of 2016, and only one 15 day stint in mid-2017. Hopefully 2018 remains the outlier of his MLB career!

I can't think of any player who has signed extension at a point when he is struggling as badly as Buxton has in 2018. Keep in mind Buxton is still just a few months removed from talking extension with the Twins last spring, when Nick floated a 6/80 idea here and ultimately a deal didn't get done. I am guessing neither side wants to dramatically alter their position to get a deal done now either. Just to use some numbers to illustrate, maybe Buxton was looking for that $80 mil last spring and the club was countering with $50 mil. Earlier this thread, Chief threw out $25 mil (which honestly seems appropriate now given his awful year) -- but if you're Buxton, and just turned down $50 mil in pursuit of $80 mil a few months ago, are you really going to be receptive to $25 mil now? And if you are the Twins, you might be insulting him to try reopening negotiations at this point with a dramatically lower offer than last time, especially if you explicitly invoked the potential extra year of control thing as leverage. I mean, even if on some level it might make some sense for both sides, it just isn't realistic to make it happen right now.

A September call-up could also provide a bit more data on the "slow starter" theory. I don't really know why, and it could just be random, but the guy has started off very bad in all 4 of his MLB seasons, and finished solid-to-great in his first 3 so far too.

Did he have a foot injury in early 2016 and early 2017 too?

Sure, which is one reason I specifically mentioned K rate. A dramatic improvement there would probably be more interesting at this point than a good slash line. But even if he doesn't improve or impress, I think he needs the opportunity. And, in my other posts, I also spelled out how I am not really looking for him to prove anything more before opening day 2019. To me, he's already proven his inconcistency and unreliability. The only thing we can really do is give him chances when possible (like September 2018) and prepare a viable alternative outfield (offseason and April 2019).

No, that's not really my position. Let me put it this way: will you be comfortable, after your shutdown, of penciling Buxton in as your opening day CF in 2019? If not, then why bother shutting him down? You still have an option for 2019, you can use it and achieve the same goal (extra year of control) before May 1st. If yes, then that sounds pretty reckless, both from a player and a team perspective. With the performance challenges he already had, plus basically the lost season, it seems highly questionable to take away his last shot at healthy* high-level reps before the offseason and opening day 2019, replace them with instructs, and throw him back into the fire at the first opportunity and just expect it is all going to work out somehow. I am not saying his September 2018 MLB stats will be super-meaningful, or critical to any chance of future success. All I am saying is that it's an opportunity for him to finally play and I don't see a compelling reason to just skip it. The extra year of control is not exclusive to the shut down plan. If anything, we should plan to option him in 2019 regardless. But he needs to play when possible. * And we should be able assume he is healthy, by any reasonable definition. Even if they want to give him extra days off (and there is still plenty of time to slowly adjust that this season, if we so desire). If he's not healthy, he shouldn't be playing anywhere right now. Obviously if he get hurt again, or he really struggles at Rochester, you can change course. If he needs to be rebuilt in Ft Myers like Sano, then so be it. (But if you think that today, then he should be in Ft Myers today, nothing gained by waiting.)

You started this tangent by saying "I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil" and now you are saying a good comp got $1.2 mil, 4 years ago. (Actually 5 seasons/offseasons ago -- Bourjos got that award after 2013, Buxton will get his after 2018.) Even if you think he is slightly worse than Bourjos, that sounds like you think he'll get a million. FWIW, Bourjos and the Cards settled at $1.2 mil, and included $150k in PA incentives, so the actual value of the deal was a tick higher. Another oddity with Bourjos is that the Angels made him a bench player for a full season AFTER his big year -- 101 games, only 195 PA. Bench players are a lower salary class than starters, and I'm guessing that gave the Cardinals some leverage in arbitration, not unlike how an injury or AAA demotion might affect a starter like Buxton (perhaps not as much, but offsetting some). Also, 5 years is a long time. It is quite possible that Bourjos did not have enough defensive data available to fully convince an arbitrator of his defensive value -- Statcast didn't even come around until 2015. Buxton will be able to point to a stronger correlation between defensive metrics and higher salaries. Bourjos didn't have a gold glove like Buxton either, for a more traditional defensive value argument. Soler's 100 OPS+ over 2015-2016 is not that much better than Buxton's 92 over 2016-2017. And it is more than offset by baserunning and defense. And there's a point of diminishing returns to a bad OPS+ -- in similar playing time (or lack thereof), a guy with a 36 isn't going to be considered appreciably better than a guy with a 5. They're both just bad. None of this is to say Buxton will get $2 mil. I've conceded my potential $2 mil guess (which was just that, a guess) was likely too high. But $1 mil seems like the floor here.

Won't Wade and Austin be facing the same suspect pitching, in the same amount of PAs as Buxton? What's that going to tell you? Wade in particular has virtually zero shot of starting on opening day 2019, where presumably Buxton does. Austin has hardly played OF in 3 years. I'd actually be a little surprised if the Twins call up Wade this September, and more surprised if they give him any significant PAs. If we are just wishcasting, why not use 1B and DH to maximize opportunities for younger players? DH might be particularly good for Buxton if you are concerned about health. I also think "September pitching is worse" is frequently overstated. Sure, some new pitchers usually get called up, but it's not like the whole staffs or rotations get turned over on September 1st, nor do minor league lifers suddenly see significant September action. I'd wager the percentage of PAs for a particular batter against low quality "September callup" pitching is not meaningful, or at least not meaningfully different than other months. (With expanded bullpens, you might even wind up at a platoon disadvantage more often in September too.) Like I posted upthread, if you really want reps for Buxton but you also want that extra year of control, play him in September, and then option him for 29 days to start 2019.

Remember, the Twins could have optioned Sano just a couple days earlier back in June, and they would have stood to gain an extra year of control if Sano suffered an injury in the minors and couldn't return to the majors in 2018. They didn't do it. Suggests that perhaps the timing of Buxton's demotion was not service-time related either, and if he is healthy enough to return for Rochester, he should be healthy enough to return to MLB yet this season.

Rochester plus Minnesota, Buxton had potentially 46 games remaining in 2018 when this article was written, over 7 weeks. Could get 120-150 PA there if we wanted. Even if we want to give him ample rest, and he only plays 4 games a week, he will probably be pushing 100 PA. And hypothetically, if 120-150 is where it stabilizes, I have to imagine that a significant enough improvement at 100 PA could be meaningful. Say a guy was previously at 30% K rate, but managed 100 PA at 15%. I wouldn't call that worthless information. And for that matter, even if he continued struggling over his next 100 PA, or 120-150 or whatever -- there is value to knowing that on October 1st this year, rather than on May 25th next year. Not just for the player's offseason prep, but the team's too -- trades/FA, waiver claims (could be big in spring training), etc.

I said Franco had a clear advantage in games. He was just an example of guys getting awards based in part on earlier seasons. I don't think Buxton will get close to his award, but he's not getting $650k either. May's career is 0.3 bWAR. Peak of 1.4. 2018 won't help, but Buxton is going to get some credit for 2017, and even some for 2016 (1.8 bWAR in just over half a season). If you want a comp for a guy coming off a terrible season, there is Jorge Soler last winter. 110 PA of 36 OPS+. MLBTR still estimated he would have gotten $1.1 mil as a super-2 in arbitration last winter, and his previous seasons were no better than Buxton either (slighty better bat but far worse glove and baserunning, and fewer PAs too). Not a stretch at all to think Buxton might get $1.5 mil, even if you think my initial guess of $2 mil was too high.

Peeking at last year's arb awards, I see Maikel Franco got $2.95 mil as a super-2 coming off a -0.2 bWAR season. Obviously gets points over Buxton for staying on the field, but Franco was 2 years removed from being a plus-hitter, and obviously didn't have a gold glove. $1.5-2 mil for Buxton wouldn't seem outlandish. Should be interesting to follow.

Could get enough at bats to show improved K rate, that stabilizes pretty quickly, no? And could be a good indicator for 2019.

Career 4.5 fWAR, 7.0 bWAR already. 5.2 bWAR last year alone, plus a Gold Glove. It's not all based on this season, or on basic counting stats anymore. Plouffe got $2.35 mil as a super-2 and had't done too much, 1.5 career bWAR at that point. Even ignoring his poor defense, it was 4.6 oWAR in 1351 PA, compared to 3.5 oWAR in 1074 for Buxton. And that was 5 years ago. If Buxton isn't super-2 and surpasses 3 years service time in September, note that Escobar got $2.1 mil in his first arb season, with 3.9 bWAR, 4.1 oWAR in 1243 career PA. Even got a raise the next year to $2.6 mil after a dismal -0.7 bWAR campaign. Maybe Buxton won't get $2 mil this winter, I am no expert -- but I don't think he'll get a token award barely above the minimum either.

Like I said, he could get $2 mil this winter in arbitration. Probably $2 mil minimum for 2020 too, even if he does nothing -- he's not getting cut in the next year. Already got $6 mil signing bonus, he's made ~$1.6 mil in MLB salaries to date. The lucrative Sheboygan saugage endorsement. Already has a pension, plus lifetime health care. Not sure guaranteeing $25 mil right now is all that important, when he already has ~$12 mil without hedging bets on his future.